Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)
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i think i had him around 18.. i know BK had him real high as he was our late season favourite i think..
i think Browny has him easily dominated this year however.. Brisbane just havnt won enough games for Black to get votes in.. whereas Brown has had 4-5 clear bogs
Thompson-Brown-Watson-Goodes is at about $10 at centrebet which is great value for the "anchors".
Can only see Douglas beating Thompson but still expect Thompson to poll 10+ with Douglas around 7-8.
Brown has 4 BOG's(and another 2 vote game for me) and don't think even um[ire love can get Black more votes and they just have not won enough games for Rischitelli or Brennan to beat 12(surely no way Brown could be on less then 12)
90% confident on Watson and expect him to win by about 5 or 6 votes to Stanton.
Have Goodes 5 clear of any Swan however a little worried that I have 4 others around the 10 vote mark and the votes to Goodes factor in umpire love so he would be the least confident of the 4 anchors.
Can only see Douglas beating Thompson but still expect Thompson to poll 10+ with Douglas around 7-8.
Brown has 4 BOG's(and another 2 vote game for me) and don't think even um[ire love can get Black more votes and they just have not won enough games for Rischitelli or Brennan to beat 12(surely no way Brown could be on less then 12)
90% confident on Watson and expect him to win by about 5 or 6 votes to Stanton.
Have Goodes 5 clear of any Swan however a little worried that I have 4 others around the 10 vote mark and the votes to Goodes factor in umpire love so he would be the least confident of the 4 anchors.
Fair call.
Just one player that i find hard to write off.
But yeah browny really dominated at the start of the season and a couple of time at the back and should get it.
Also unsure of how the multi payouts work?
So say you had Watson/Judd/Thompson/Goodes/Brown/Pendles all in a multi, Is what they are paying out now going to be their total payout per $1 or does it start getting ridiculous after a a certain amount of legs in that multi?
So how much would that multi leg be paying now? and
If i were to add another leg to that multi does it go up by the amount that that person is paying or does it multiply because of so many legs?
Sorry if i have confused anyone trying to help.
Not interested in puting Judd in those anchors for an extra 3% profit?
mattybomb22
Debutant
Don't write Blackie off yet. Last year I had brown out in front going for plenty but Blackie cut him down to get up and tie .this could happen again as Blackie will poll in a couple of losing games this year. [freo+ mel] and Rischitelli not far off either.
sblack
Brownlow Medallist
- Apr 23, 2007
- 21,379
- 4,753
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Sixers, Eagles, Man Utd, Georgetown
After Watson killing us all last year, and after everyone declaring him a lock, is anyone questioning him?
TAB will have a different list of players with some teams.. they will also include Player not listed.. so your idea wont work
ps Cooney would be more of a worry than Griffin
mattybomb22
Debutant
BOYD is a pretty good thing to win the Dogs imo.
Possibly as he should win by 10 votes but going from 4 legs to 5 legs for a small gain may not be worth it. Much more certain than any other team and wish he was still at the $1.50 offered by centrebet not that long ago
. Hopefully Simpson or Murphy have a clear BOG game with Juddy not polling to boost his odds up to $1.15 if we are lucky.
He didn't 'kill' us, a profit is still a profit. This year has been entirely different, has been recognised in the media and in football circles as a genuine gun at stoppages. Has played a lone hand so often - Stanton is average and doesn't poll, Hille has played two decent games, Fletcher has been great but is a defender and there is no Lovett this year to pinch votes. I had Winders as a danger until he broke his hand and I favoured him over Watson all year and still have Watson leading 13-7. Home.
As I have already said I am looking for 1 anchor, as it will considerably reduce my number of bets and outlay for the night.
Watson is that 1 imo. He really should win Essendon's quite easily, and going off previous posters breakdown of him, most of his votes will be in 2 or 3s. Hence, it's not a risk in that he is iffy to pick up a vote. He was a standout in a few games this year,and no other Bomber has matched this, thus declaring him as a lock.
Possibly as he should win by 10 votes but going from 4 legs to 5 legs for a small gain may not be worth it. Much more certain than any other team and wish he was still at the $1.50 offered by centrebet not that long ago
Very short but wins. I am hoping the TAB put him up at 1.10 at least.
Interested to see what combinations people are pondering at the moment just so many potential options...
=thompson*goodes*brown*watson*riewoldt*boyd*harvey @ 62.99 seems pretty solid but it is a 7 legger. It also has the potential add ons of selwood/barlow/pendlebury which get the odds in the 200 range.
May do 4 of those bets but considering i havent done a lot of slips in the past would people choose 4 of the listed in the above multi and add one or two of the pendles/selwood/barlow/swallow/hayes/goddard etc to the bets?
I hope all of that makes sense im just trying to get a solid strategy and doing a spreadsheet has done my head in.
=thompson*goodes*brown*watson*riewoldt*boyd*harvey @ 62.99 seems pretty solid but it is a 7 legger. It also has the potential add ons of selwood/barlow/pendlebury which get the odds in the 200 range.
May do 4 of those bets but considering i havent done a lot of slips in the past would people choose 4 of the listed in the above multi and add one or two of the pendles/selwood/barlow/swallow/hayes/goddard etc to the bets?
I hope all of that makes sense im just trying to get a solid strategy and doing a spreadsheet has done my head in.
sblack
Brownlow Medallist
- Apr 23, 2007
- 21,379
- 4,753
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Sixers, Eagles, Man Utd, Georgetown
Priddis for my liking as well. Have LeCras on 7 votes though, only 2 behind Priddis.
I now see the winner coming from any of Judd, Pendlebury, and Ablett. Will be a tense time when the votes are read out come Round 22 Brownlow night. 
Round 21 Leaderboard:
24 - C. Judd
24 - S. Pendlebury (+)
23 - G. Ablett (+)
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood (+)
18 - D. Swan
Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.
For more info, final round analysis/discussion, complete round votes, and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com
Round 21 Leaderboard:
24 - C. Judd
24 - S. Pendlebury (+)
23 - G. Ablett (+)
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood (+)
18 - D. Swan
Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.
For more info, final round analysis/discussion, complete round votes, and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com
Le Cras for me. Chucked some lazy cash on him today. I have him equal with Priddis on 6 each then Embley on 5. Went through all the stats today, I'm pretty confident Le Cras will get up.
I am.
Thompson appears more a lock.
I have Watson 7-12, Winderlich 7-8, Stanton 6-7.
He 'should' win, possible draw not out of the equation.
No ones backing Judd, but hes a moral lock.
Uncle Carlos
Debutant
I now see the winner coming from any of Judd, Pendlebury, and Ablett. Will be a tense time when the votes are read out come Round 22 Brownlow night.
Round 21 Leaderboard:
24 - C. Judd (+)
24 - S. Pendlebury (+)
23 - G. Ablett (+)
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood (+)
18 - D. Swan
Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.
For more info, final round analysis/discussion, complete round votes, and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com
Love the count as always!! Perhaps its because if you're right then i'm probably going to make some good money.... either way, keep up the good work
I now see the winner coming from any of Judd, Pendlebury, and Ablett. Will be a tense time when the votes are read out come Round 22 Brownlow night.
Round 21 Leaderboard:
24 - C. Judd (+)
24 - S. Pendlebury (+)
23 - G. Ablett (+)
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood (+)
18 - D. Swan
Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.
For more info, final round analysis/discussion, complete round votes, and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com
ranking rise for judd? i really dont see him polling in the geelong loss
edit:My mistake, you dont have him polling.
I dont like how much you have GAJ on. his making me nervous
Judd to place and Selwood to win Geelong are my favoured bets right now. I think they offer great value and are as close as you are going to get to sure things at those odds.
I am basing this on history: Judd's ability to poll and the inability of a winner to poll the next year.
I am basing this on history: Judd's ability to poll and the inability of a winner to poll the next year.
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