Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[tranquilli lace]

A.Selwood 7
Priddis 5
S.Selwood 3
Le Cras 3

Kingcross are you able to give your Freo breakdown for me too please? Sorry if you've already posted recently, thread moves at a rate of knots.

 

[twarby]

Kingcross are you able to give your Freo breakdown for me too please? Sorry if you've already posted recently, thread moves at a rate of knots.

+1 on freos breakdown sandi barlow and pav
if barlow fails to poll in the first couple of games, i think he would be out of the running for fremantles..
i have him 2 infront but thats based on giving him votes in the early rounds when he had no profile, so he could easily miss in those...whereas Sandy and Pav could poll more

 

[mattybomb22]

+1 i said it a few pages back, touch Hodge at your own peril. If he polls badly like his polling history suggests and Mitchell polls in a few unexpected games, i can easily see Mitchell knocking him off. Wouldnt be surprised to see it the same as last year when Swan got knocked off by pendles. If Mitchell is still paying $26+ i might put him in one or two of my multis.

Judd wont lose, but unless his at $1.10+ with the TAB i will prob only include him in longer leg multsi.

Am surprised you have plucked Mitchell to even be a chance with Hodgy, AJsguns???. As BK demonstrated a month or so ago Hodge has not got that bad a history and has had a great season.
Another surprise is so many throwing it all on the team votes.
I think a lot of questions were answered correctly here for people. such as max pay 5000-1 and max legs 10. [in Brissy anyway]

also think the value will come in the group betting as AThomas and Stevesteve i think it was pointed out.all you guys were great last year nailing Gibbs, Hayes,etc and I was lucky to go with Judd in Swan's group so didn't lose to Swan but paid the penalty for going with Selwood in his group instead of Hayes whom you all tipped.
Time for revenge this Year!!!!!!!

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

for what its worth, at each club:
adelaide - thompson
brisbane - brown or rischitelli (he has been fantastic for us this year, don't leave him out of multis)
carlton - judd
collingwood - am warming to pendlebury the more this goes
essendon - watson
fremantle - sandilands
geelong - selwood
hawthorn - hodge
melbourne - a hard one. tempted to say sylvia
north melb - swallow
port - boak
richmond - the volt
st kilda - hayes
sydney - goodes
west coast - tempted to throw in natanui and i know his last half of year not good, but he may fpick up early flashy votes
west bulldogs - boyd

sorry if this is the same as most people's, just some input

 

[Notorious_29]

for what its worth, at each club:
adelaide - thompson
brisbane - brown or rischitelli (he has been fantastic for us this year, don't leave him out of multis)
carlton - judd
collingwood - am warming to pendlebury the more this goes
essendon - watson
fremantle - sandilands
geelong - selwood
hawthorn - hodge
melbourne - a hard one. tempted to say sylvia
north melb - swallow
port - boak
richmond - the volt
st kilda - hayes
sydney - goodes
west coast - tempted to throw in natanui and i know his last half of year not good, but he may fpick up early flashy votes
west bulldogs - boyd

sorry if this is the same as most people's, just some input

So you haven't done a count, your just guessing?

 

[Brownlow King]

So you haven't done a count, your just guessing?

Looks like a guess to me !!! You need to sift thru the real posters from the wild cards at this time of year.

 

[kingross29]

Kingcross are you able to give your Freo breakdown for me too please? Sorry if you've already posted recently, thread moves at a rate of knots.

Barlow 15
Sandi 12
Pav 10
Mundy 9
Duffield 6
Ballantyne 5
Fyfe 3
Hill Broughton Johnson Crowley 2
Haselby Palmer 1

 

[RU486]

Very similar to my count for Freo in regards to Pav, Sandi and Barlow. Given Barlow has no history I think that takes atleast 3 votes of what he should get resulting in a tight finish. I'm staying out of that market, but if I was to guess I'd go with Sandi.

 

[FootyStar#1]

+1 on freos breakdown sandi barlow and pav
if barlow fails to poll in the first couple of games, i think he would be out of the running for fremantles..
i have him 2 infront but thats based on giving him votes in the early rounds when he had no profile, so he could easily miss in those...whereas Sandy and Pav could poll more

I really hope that Barlow does poll at the start of the season and i just have a feeling that he will. He had an awesome NAB cup and he definitely got quite a bit of exposure before the season started. I'd be interested to find out (or if anyone else could) during the first two weeks he got 3 FF, i wonder if the umpires called him by his first name and acknowledged who he was. If they did, I think he's a great chance for freos votes. Here is to hoping that Sandi and Pav don't dominate against Carlton because then it will really be up in the air!

 

[rowie343]

I have pavlich on 13 votes total. Dont know how most dont have him on much. Here is how I gave him votes:
R1 - 1
R3 -3
R4 -1
R5- 1
R6- 2
R7- 2
R9 - 2
R10 - 1
He could possibly be on more.
Probably not gonna have much bearing on votes at freo unless he can poll 3 tommorrow. I have put some on him to lead at half way point though.

 

[tranquilli lace]

Barlow 15
Sandi 12
Pav 10
Mundy 9
Duffield 6
Ballantyne 5
Fyfe 3
Hill Broughton Johnson Crowley 2
Haselby Palmer 1

Thanks for that

Will make it interesting tomorrow night should 211 or Pav have a blinder.

 

[echelon22]

Just adding to a couple of breakdown requests

Pavlich:
R3 - 3
R4 - 1 or 2
R6 - maybe 1
R7 - maybe 1
R9 - 2 or 3

Total 8 (min 6 max 10)

FWIW I have Barlow on 15-18 and Sandi on 12-18 but as has been mentioned, Barlow will need the 5-6 I've given him in the first couple of rounds

Hodge:
R1 - 3
R5 - 2
R8 - 2 or 3
R9 - 3
R11 - 2 or 3
R12 - 2 or 3
R14 - 2 or 3
R16 - maybe 1
R17 - 3

Total 22 (min 19 max 24)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Looks like a guess to me !!! You need to sift thru the real posters from the wild cards at this time of year.

feel free not to assume BK, after your posturing about being positive on here.

thompson - 12
rischitelli I have on 11, brown on 10
judd - 23
pendlebury - 22
watson - 10
sandilands - 17
selwood - 23
hodge - 18
sylvia - 9, but scully may have around 8 - hard to tell with a first year player
swallow - 13
boak - 10
riewoldt - 10
hayes - 20
goodes - 15
natanui - 7, but this is a hard one to line up
boyd - 18

hope that keeps you happy, bk, i know not all of us are gurus like you, but just trying to contribute to the discussion

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hey Guys. Ive been trawling through the thread and im trying to go team by team and simplify things a bit for the smaller punters. It basically compiles everyones opinions on the team votes with a low/high votes for the top 2-3 in each team and a small opinion at the bottom based on knoweledge gained from everyone here. I Should have it up in a few hours.

Hopefully it can help a people a bit, like all the pro's on here have helped me. Obviously for the people who already have everything sorted, its not going to help you. So it wont be offering anything new, just basically 200 pages simplified to one .

 

[echelon22]

thompson - 12
rischitelli I have on 11, brown on 10
judd - 23
pendlebury - 22
watson - 10
sandilands - 17
selwood - 23
hodge - 18
sylvia - 9, but scully may have around 8 - hard to tell with a first year player
swallow - 13
boak - 10
riewoldt - 10
hayes - 20
goodes - 15
natanui - 7, but this is a hard one to line up
boyd - 18

Interested to see your breakdown on Scully, Rischitelli and Naitanui, also how many votes do you have Swan on?

My voting for those guys has been -

Scully:
R7 - 3

Rischitelli:
R3 - 2 or 3
R4 - 1
R18 - 1 or 2

Naitanui:
R2 - 1 or 2
R4 - maybe 1
R7 - maybe 1

 

[Athomas]

I have Rischitelli on 10 (Brown 13), Naitanui on 5.

Definitely think Naita is a chance for eagles and rischitelli for lions. I have Brown in quite a lot of bets though, he should beat him.

 

[tranquilli lace]

feel free not to assume BK, after your posturing about being positive on here.

thompson - 12
rischitelli I have on 11, brown on 10
judd - 23
pendlebury - 22
watson - 10
sandilands - 17
selwood - 23
hodge - 18
sylvia - 9, but scully may have around 8 - hard to tell with a first year player
swallow - 13
boak - 10
riewoldt - 10
hayes - 20
goodes - 15
natanui - 7, but this is a hard one to line up
boyd - 18

I actually think this is one of the better counts I've seen so far. Number of votes not over the top.

 

[twarby]

Fremantle
Barlow 16
Sandilands 14
Pavlich 12
Mundy 7
Ballantine 4
Duffield 4
Palmer 4
Bradley 2
Crowley 2
Hasleby 1
Fyfe 1
Hill 1
Broughton 1

i gave Barlow votes early when he could go under the radar, but i do believe he will poll well still 12-16

 

[KardiniaPark]

So here is a brief rundown of the way i have read the thread SO FAR.

ADELAIDE CROWS​

THOMPSON 11-12
DOUGLAS 7 – 9​

TWO HORSE RACE. THOMPSON SEEMS THE OBVIOUS CHOICE BUT A FLUCTUATING POLLING HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT DOUGLAS IS IN WITH A CHANCE.
VALUE : DOUGLAS​

BRISBANE LIONS​

BROWN 13
RISCHITELLI 6–9
BLACK 6 - 8
BRENNAN 6 - 7​

BROWN HAS THEM COVERED, 4 STANDOUT PERFORMANCES ALMOST GUARANTEE 12 VOTES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH VOTES FROM THOSE 4 GAMES ALONE.
TIP : BROWN​

CARLTON​

JUDD 21 – 22
MURPHY, GIBBS 7-9​

JUDD WINS EASILY, BUT AT $1.03 MAY NEED TO BE BRAVE TO INCLUDE HIM AFTER THE SWAN DEBACLE LAST YEAR. BUT HE DOES SEEM LENGTHS AHEAD OF THE REST.
TIP - JUDD​

COLLINGWOOD​

SWAN 21-25
PENDLEBURY 18-25
DIDAK 13-14​

VERY TIGHT, WHOEVER WINS COLLINGWOOD WINS THE MEDAL?. PENDLEBURY GETS THE NOD AT THE ODDS.
VALUE ; PENDLEBURY​

ESSENDON​

WATSON 8 - 13
WINDERLICH 7 - 8
STANTON 5 – 7
HILLE 6 – 7
FLETCHER 5​

WATSON LOOKS TO HAVE THIS ONE SEWN UP. THERE REALLY IS NO OTHER STANDOUTS THIS YEAR AND WHEN HE POLLS HE SHOULD GET 2’S & 3’S.
TIP : WATSON​

FREMANTLE ​

BARLOW 14-17
SANDILANDS 12-15
MUNDY 9
PAVLICH 8​

SANDILANDS SEEMS THE SAFE OPTION BUT BARLOW IS THE UNKNOWN, PROBABLY HAD A BETTER YEAR THAN THE REST BUT JUST WONT KNOW IF THE UMPS WILL NOTICE BARLOW UNTIL AFTER THE FIRST FEW ROUNDS. PAVLICH A ROUGH CHANCE BUT SHOULD HIT IT WITH BARLOW & SANDILANDS.
VALUE : BARLOW​

GEELONG​

SELWOOD 19-22
ABLETT 21-24
CHAPMAN 13-19​

HUGE GROUNDSWELL FOR SELWOOD OF LATE, HE WILL PROBABLY NEED A BOG TO BE ASSURED OF BEING UP THERE WITH ABLETT AS HE WOULD BE A LONG WAY IN FRONT OF SELWOOD AT THE HALFWAY MARK. THE WINNER SHOULD COME FROM THESE TWO.
VALUE : SELWOOD​

HAWTHORN​

HODGE 19-22
MITCHELL 10-14
RIOLI 9​

HODGE ON FACE VALUE SEEMS TO BE A LONG WAY IN FRONT. WHAT HE SHOULD GET AND WHAT HE DOES GET ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS THOUGH. IT MIGHT BE SAFER JUST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE $1.02, AS IT REPRESENTS NO VALUE GOING ON PREVIOUS POLLING.
TIP : NO BET​

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sorry how this one is set out, something strange happened when i cut and pasted it from excel, DOH!. ​

MELBOURNE​

sylvia 9-13​

moloney 7-8​

green 8​

davey 7-8​

votes in the last game would put sylvia beyond doubt, but it does seem fairly open. Moloney, green, davey, mcdonald have all had a few standout games each. Its either a leave alone or load up on 4-5 multis and take all of them. ​

tip : Sylvia​

NORTH MELBOURNE​

harvey 14-16

swallow 12-13​

two horse race here, take both as swallow has closed the gap massively in the last 5 weeks. ​

value : Swallow

RICHMOND​

riewoldt 8-11

deledio 7​

newman 7​

tuck 6​

riewoldt is the standout, he doesn’t look like he is much ahead but has a couple of huge games where he must have got 3’s and 2’s. The others are fairly even across the board and the small amount of votes the team will get will most likely be shared evenly between deledio, newman & tuck…​

tip : Riewoldt

STKILDA​

hayes 14-19​

goddard 14-18​

montagna 12-16​

del santo 11-15​

head scratcher. As has been stated with goddard, his relationship with the umpires (or lack of one) may be his downfall. He also gets a lot of kicks in the back half which could hurt. Hayes seems to be the general consensus across the board and is probably the way to go but its very close between all 4 of them. Definitely no locks in this lot but hayes to win the whole thing is gaining momentum by the day, another big one this week and he seems the way to go. ​

value : Hayes

SYDNEY ​

goodes 13-15

jack 10-12​

bolton 10-11​

looks easy on paper but is it?. Goodes votes really well every year as we know, sometimes to the point where you have to scratch your head in amazement. But can that last forever?. Seems there is only 3 in the race. Jack has had a big year but will he get noticed ?. He has been outstanding in a few wins for them and if he gets the votes he should he will be right up there with goodes. Bolton doesn’t have the best polling history , will he get recognised?. He’s probably a touch off the top 2 anyway. Multi around goodes & jack but goodes is no good thing!. ​

VALUE : JACK

WESTERN BULLDOGS​

boyd 17-21​

cooney 14-15​

looks like the two above have it between them. Work both into multi’s. Most seem to think boyd is a long way ahead but brownlow king seems bullish on cooney’s chances and that must be respected. There is also a few others like cross,lake, gia,griffin,hall that could possibly be into the double figures so it could end up rather tight down at dogland. If youre looking for a lock, i don’t think this is it j​

tip : Boyd​

PORT ADELAIDE




boak 10-14

rodan 7-11​

cassisi 8-11​

kornes 6-8​

rodan seems to have a good history of polling but has he been good enough?. Boak has probably been their most consistent along with cassisi. It could come down to this weeks game, its that tight. ​

value : Boak, cassisi

WEST COAST ​

priddis 6-9

lecras 5-7​

naitanui 5-6​

priddis is a massive ball winner but does he do enough to catch the eye?. At the prohibitive price he does not represent value. Lecras kicked a few bags in losing teams, we know he has one guaranteed 3 vote j. The lower teams can throw up a surprise result and the winner might only need to get about 8 votes to win or tie. ​

value : Naitanui​

 

[Pumbi]

Good posts KP.

A nice reference tool for n00bs such as myself. Your work is much appreciated.

 

[adii_7]

nice KP, im on most of those bets but have taken goodes, thompson.. not your value selections.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Brilliant KP

Thanks a lot!

 

[KardiniaPark]

nice KP, im on most of those bets but have taken goodes, thompson.. not your value selections.

Thnx Guys

Adii, obviously when I have used the 'value' selection its purely based on what the odds would most likely be. They certainly arent to be taken as lock's!. But the consensus was that goodes & thompson have some competition this year hence why i chose the value over the 'tip' like watson & judd.

 

[s1bbald]

I've set out a series of basic multis, which could possibly suit your punter who has somewhat of a budget, let me know what you think. (odds going by Centrebet)

Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Pendlebury - 10 @ 34.76
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Barlow - 10 @ 35.84
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Selwood - 10 @ 43.68
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Mitchell - 5 @ 291.2
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Sylvia - 10 @ 42
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Swallow - 10 @ 34.7
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Cassisi - 10 @ 72.8
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Boak - 10 @ 95.2
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Jack - 5 @ 179.2
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt/Hayes - 10 @ 36.4
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/JRiewoldt (at increased units) - 50 @ 11.2
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Rischi/JRiewoldt - 10 @ 46.91
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown/Deledio - 10 @ 32.42
Judd/Watson/Thompson/Rischi/Deledio - 5 @ 135.79

TOTAL OUTLAY = $165. Meaning any one of these can get up (even allowing for ties), and I hit profit. Can anyone see any fault in this? I think I just need to work out how much I like each of my value picks, and tinker with my outlay accordingly.

And then just a heap of the value picks in three leg multis.
Could still easily sub out Brown/JRiewoldt with Goodes, and just put the appropriate savers in their place.

Didn't work out as cheap as I thought. Thoughts?