Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[Villie88]

What does your average say about Robert Harvey in 1997-1998.

Not only did Harvey win in 1997 and 1998 dual brownlow medalist, but if you remember the votes he received.

26 in 1997
32 in 1998

This average doesn't do any justice, Chris Judd in 2010-2011 has been equally as good as Robert Harvey was in 1997-1998.

Considering the show he put on last year, i wouldn't be suprised if he gets more than 30 votes this year.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Alright I've pretty much got every bet I want on except for in-play betting on the night. Most of the gold value only lasts a few hours or sometimes a couple of days after that markets are released. There are still some good bets available, I'm just going to bless you boys with a couple of fantastic bets that I've had in the past couple of days:

Griffen to beat S. Johnson at $1.65 (EXTRA SPECIAL Griffen 16/17ish, Johnson 9/10ish)

Priddis to beat Thomas at $1.70ish (EXTRA SPECIAL, Priddis 18ish or more, Thomas likely 14ish,absolute max 17 if things went his way)

Mitchell to beat Goodes at $2.10ish (despite Twarby's protestations, can't see Mitchell below 24 and I have Goodes likely to poll 22-24 with an outside chance of 25/26). Value here.

Wells to beat Gibbs at $2ish (Gibbs likely 8-10, Wells likely 12-14)

Priddis to beat Swallow at $1.60ish (Have not seen a count with Swallow ahead, like having my money on Priddis).

Moloney to beat Black at $1.63 (wary of polling history but must back my count of Black 12.75, Moloney 17.75).

Ablett to beat Selwood at $1.55ish (short here but I have Ablett marked at about $1.10 so good value).

Pendlebury to beat Ablett at $1.45ish (Short odds again, but I reckon Ablett has only about a 5% chance of getting up here so good value).

Winner w/o Judd to NOT be Goodes at $1.70ish (not a certainty but good value for a bet where I believe there are numerous 'outs', about 4 players who can win this for you imo Have not seen many counts that have Goodes winning 2nd behind Judd).

Murphy to lead at halfway @ $2.10ish (not a certainty, but must back my count which has Murphy on a whopping 17 at halfway and a couple of votes clear).

Good luck.

 

[CamTinley]

What does your average say about Robert Harvey in 1997-1998.

Not only did Harvey win in 1997 and 1998 dual brownlow medalist, but if you remember the votes he received.

26 in 1997
32 in 1998

This average doesn't do any justice, Chris Judd in 2010-2011 has been equally as good as Robert Harvey was in 1997-1998.

Considering the show he put on last year, i wouldn't be suprised if he gets more than 30 votes this year.

I did say "outright winner". Harvey wasn't the outright winner in 1997 in terms of being the undisputed winner. I was also talking about "on average". I don't want to get drawn into a debate as to whether Judd is over-rated or not.

 

[Villie88]

Chris Judd is not Gary Ablett.

Once we see Chris Judd not polling in games which he should then you can actually compare the two.

What you will notice is that Chris Judd will receive a majority of his votes in Carlton wins, apart from the Collingwood game which may see him poll.

Chris Judd is an accomplished player, he should win another brownlow going by the season he has had, and should go down as one of the top ten players to play the game.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Can't see Wells beating Gibbs.

Gibbs: 2(2) + 1 (1) + 2.25 (3) + 0.25 + 1 (1)+2(3) +0.75 (1) + 0.25 [9.5 (10)] a few more possible, but likely 8/9 imo - max 12

Wells Wells 3 (3) + 2.5 (3) + 2.25 (3) + 2.75 (3) + 0.25 + 1.25 (1) + 2.25 (2) [14.25 (15)] could be 11 at worst, most likely betwen 12 and 14, some strong polling games in his favour and an ok polling history.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Did you take those H2H's at BetStar?

Nah I'm overseas atm and haven't exactly been able to make the most of every single opportunity. Mostly Betfair.

 

[Villie88]

Alright I've pretty much got every bet I want on except for in-play betting on the night. Most of the gold value only lasts a few hours or sometimes a couple of days after that markets are released. There are still some good bets available, I'm just going to bless you boys with a couple of fantastic bets that I've had in the past couple of days:

Griffen to beat S. Johnson at $1.65 (EXTRA SPECIAL Griffen 16/17ish, Johnson 9/10ish)

Priddis to beat Thomas at $1.70ish (EXTRA SPECIAL, Priddis 18ish or more, Thomas likely 14ish,absolute max 17 if things went his way)

Mitchell to beat Goodes at $2.10ish (despite Twarby's protestations, can't see Mitchell below 24 and I have Goodes likely to poll 22-24 with an outside chance of 25/26). Value here.

Wells to beat Gibbs at $2ish (Gibbs likely 8-10, Wells likely 12-14)

Priddis to beat Swallow at $1.60ish (Have not seen a count with Swallow ahead, like having my money on Priddis).

Moloney to beat Black at $1.63 (wary of polling history but must back my count of Black 12.75, Moloney 17.75).

Ablett to beat Selwood at $1.55ish (short here but I have Ablett marked at about $1.10 so good value).

Pendlebury to beat Ablett at $1.45ish (Short odds again, but I reckon Ablett has only about a 5% chance of getting up here so good value).

Winner w/o Judd to NOT be Goodes at $1.70ish (not a certainty but good value for a bet where I believe there are numerous 'outs', about 4 players who can win this for you imo Have not seen many counts that have Goodes winning 2nd behind Judd).

Murphy to lead at halfway @ $2.10ish (not a certainty, but must back my count which has Murphy on a whopping 17 at halfway and a couple of votes clear).

Good luck.

All extremly good bets, it would be safe to say there should be a 50% hit ratio.

Mitchell to beat Goodes should happen, but it could be the tightest one there, it'll be either a tie or Mitchell will beat Goodes by a vote.

I believe Goodes will finish 2nd behind Chris Judd.

Apart from that, i believe Selwood will get about 18-19 votes or thereabouts, i have only managed to give Ablett about 17-18 also. This would be the one that i believe is going to go down to the wire, i don't see Ablett getting too many if not more than J.Selwood.

Other than that, great bets

 

[steveq91]

If the TAB twitter account is anything to go by, apparently they have just decided to allow most team vote multis!

(If this is old news, sorry I have been living under a rock the last week or two!)

 

[kingbet22]

Awsome...anyone got any most team votes multis i can tail...I have never bet on the bronlow so might have a go tonight

 

[char]

Awsome...anyone got any most team votes multis i can tail...I have never bet on the bronlow so might have a go tonight

Sent you a PM

Good luck getting on to the multis fellas - I've already laid down my bets elsewhere so happy to discuss either in here or over PM what I've gone with.

EDIT: Think TAB have put a limit of 10 legs on the multis, even though they advertised more.

 

[cnadadge]

A question for someone more knowledgeable than I. Priddis is favourite to beat Cox in the most team votes, but he is paying $8 to finish top 5, while Cox is paying $4.

Martin is also favourite to beat Cotchin in the most team votes, but he is paying $34 to finish top 5, while Cotchin is paying $7.

Is there any value here?

 

[char]

A question for someone more knowledgeable than I. Priddis is favourite to beat Cox in the most team votes, but he is paying $8 to finish top 5, while Cox is paying $4.

Martin is also favourite to beat Cotchin in the most team votes, but he is paying $34 to finish top 5, while Cotchin is paying $7.

Is there any value here?

The media seem to rate Cox over Priddis, so I imagine a lot of people followed their lead and (incorrectly IMO) put their money on Cox. The guys that have put the effort in and done their own tallies have mostly got Priddis beating him comfortably.

RE: Martin/Cotchin - I have them both tied but Martin seems to be the favourite around here. More money would have been taken on the team votes over the top 5 market for these 2, as obviously they have no chance of making the top 5.

 

[mattybomb22]

I also have Martin and cotchin tied, but I was wondering what people have Murphy and Boyd polling?

 

[char]

I also have Martin and cotchin tied, but I was wondering what people have Murphy and Boyd polling?

I have Murphy on 19, Boyd 25. That's probably about Boyd's max IMO - given him a fair number of votes in their losses (which probably goes without saying given they lost a lot )

 

[tornsword]

What do people have Ablett finishing on? Does anyone have him polling more than 20 votes? I can't believe he is 5th favourite.

 

[char]

What do people have Ablett finishing on? Does anyone have him polling more than 20 votes? I can't believe he is 5th favourite.

I've got him on 21.

EDIT: Which puts him in 6th place for me - if you include Mitchell.

 

[mattybomb22]

I have Murphy on 19, Boyd 25. That's probably about Boyd's max IMO - given him a fair number of votes in their losses (which probably goes without saying given they lost a lot )

Wow, we must have similar counts, i have both with just 1 more each. But I think that murph will poll more

 

[bruceharmes]

Is anybody else having trouble with the TAB website this morning ?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Yeah, it's been playing up since last night. They confirmed a problem over the phone.

 

[char]

Is anybody else having trouble with the TAB website this morning ?

Seems to be okay for me - I've only just logged in and tried to look at a couple of odds for multis, haven't actually laid anything down though. Although won't be surprised if it's got issues - couldn't log in at all for most of yesterday and it usually has at least 1 issue per day

Can see a few guys being crunched a little in the team votes. Namely Swallow / NDS / Priddis, as well as a couple of the anchors in Thompson / Mitchell.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I was saying or meant to say 6 in front of Judd, not 6 in front of the field. My punt is that Judd will be marked harder this season and that if he is, the Carlton votes will go to Murphy. If Judd isn't marked harder then he'll win it. An average of the last 50 years says that an outright winner of the Brownlow gets half the votes the following year. That's the average for all the multiple winners as well as the "one time" winners. Judd might turn that on it's head tomorrow night but that's the history.

Sorry bro i thought you meant Murphy 6 in front of entire field! Yeah i tend to agree this year Judd might get a few more 1's & 2's, my count had him & Murphy tied....but still behind Swan. GL.

 

[bruceharmes]

I wonder if they are happy to slow the betting on brownlow multis as they could potentially be paying out big on an event that has already happened !

 

[Jonts]

Can someone please tell me some Odds for Pendlbury to win?

Can't gain access to any betting site

 

[char]

Can someone please tell me some Odds for Pendlbury to win?

Can't gain access to any betting site

$6.50 on TAB.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Can someone please tell me some Odds for Pendlbury to win?

Can't gain access to any betting site

TAB $6.50
Sportingbet $7
CB $7

Was there any one in particular you wanted?