Can we make the 8 in 2023?

[DocT]

It's really early in the season to say it but if we are to make the 8 I think we have already used up our quota of dropped wins for the year.

Clubs definitely in the hunt for 7th/8th are: us, Tigers, Cats, Dons, Blues, Adelaide. Also, Saints could drop and Cats could and probably will push into the top 6.

Anyhow, games where we play teams competing for 7th/8th become the proverbial '8 point games'.

What's interesting is that our next 4 home games are all 8-pointers - Cats, Tigers, Dons, Blues. Can we win 4/4? If so we are well on our way to make good from our disastrous season start.

 

[BStaff17]

I got us winning 13 games max which is being generous.

There is an extra game this year to consider so you sort of cant base the cut off from previous years.

I think the north game will be looked at as the one game that costs us dearly.

 

[royale with cheese]

Yes but need to win all the remaining ones we are favourites in and cause a couple of upsets.

 

[BStaff17]

Yes but need to win all the remaining ones we are favourites in and cause a couple of upsets.

Well ill give us these wins to get to 13.

Geelong - Home
Richmond - Home
GWS - Away
Essendon - Home
Carlton - Home
Sydney - Home
West Coast - Home
Hawthorn - Away

Split - Brisbane/Port at Home

 

[nurries]

My gut feel is we will win 11 or 12 and miss out and finish in the 9-12 area. I may be a bit pessimistic but looking at the draw, we may be a chance in 6 games after the bye and I think we will only win 1 out of the next 3. I will reassess at the bye but we need to win a few more away games and pretty much win everything at home

 

[Joao]

We could but we won't. We are 10-12 bound IMO. I think we win ~10 games.

15th is worst case and I think 7th is best case.

Left ourselves too much to do with a terrible start. If the bottom falls out of Geelong starting this week, that will help since we have them twice but I don't think they are going that poorly.

 

[freo1]

We need to find some mojo in this run of hard games - and it will largely depend on the performances of the likes of Adelaide, St Kilda, Carlton and Essendon. I think we're fighting for 8th spot with them, maybe 7th.

i'm tipping us for 12 wins this year.....

 

[Channels]

No.

Can't see us getting the required amount of wins, even if we did percentages is too low.
We'll finish 10 -12th.

 

[royale with cheese]

Just checked the squiggle. We’re currently about 10% chance to make the 8, which sounds about right. A lot will have to go right to make it but we’re not without a chance.

 

[Dockeroo]

I have the saints already on 10 wins given they have 4 games to come against the bottom 3.
Essendon also have 4 so that keeps them in the hunt too.
We need to win 13 and it will require some big upsets. Not impossible but a lot will have to go right.
Not bring Sonny Walters on till it was too late in the north game has hurt us so much this year. I reckon if he’d been introduced even 10 min earlier we would have won.

 

[Alfonz]

Fourteen games left and probably need to go 9-5 to get to 13-10. Maybe 12 or 12.5 wins scrape in, but I doubt we make it with 12 and our lower %.

To get 9 more wins, the most likely path is:
2 x away wins versus GWS, Hawthorn
6 x home wins versus Richmond, Essendon, Carlton, Sydney, Eagles, Port
1 x win in the other games (away to Melbourne/Collingwood/Geelong/Dogs, home to Geelong/Brisbane). This week might be the best opportunity.

I think we will fall short. We are bound to drop some of the games pencilled in as wins above, and the quality of opposition in the other games is too high to expect us to make up the difference. We did win 4 of those harder games last year, but I just don't see us doing that again.

 

[Sweetback]

We’ll have a good idea whether we will or not after the Dees game

 

[MadDocker]

Not this year.

 

[mattis117]

There really is only one answer to your question - yes we can, anyone who has said otherwise is wrong . You probably should have asked will we make the 8 in 2023?

To answer the question you should have asked - if we continue to improve to the point where we're playing the football of a top four team, then winning the premiership again becomes a possibility. I can imagine a future where we:

1. Continue with our fortunate run with injury;
2. Continue to see improvement in chemistry across all lines, particularly the forward line;
3. New players (Jackson and O'Meara) fully integrate into the group and deliver their best football;
4. Nathan Fyfe hits peak form playing as a mid; and
5. Our young players mature across the season.

People get very caught up in trying to predict the future based on the past, but as a superannuation company would say - past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. We may improve our performance to a level that can compete with the top 4 and under such a scenario we could go deep into finals.

Conversely, none of the above may happen. Fyfe could get reinjured, we could lose our mojo for some reason, who knows. What's great about Freo's 2023 season right now is we still have the full range of possibilities in front of us, except finishing bottom 4, which we've almost already ruled out with 4 wins.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

We can, but we probably won't. 9-12 is probably our highest probable finish. I think our ceiling is 6-8, however unlikely we will get there

Would love to be proven wrong, of course

 

[serial_thrilla]

If only the siren had blown two seconds later in our game against North. Even a behind and a tie from the resulting free kick would have made the difference.

 

[Bastyy]

We will be making finals off the back of another win over the Dees at the G

 

[Dockeroo]

We need to go 9-5 from here.
That’s the form of a top 4 side.
With our under 21 key forward setup, I just don’t see it. They will get sore and tired, they will have bad games and be inconsistent. At the very least we need to beat one of Geelong or Melbourne to have a chance.

 

[StingBitten]

Agree with most people's views - probably between 9-12, however that's even based on our form against Sydney. We still have to win quite a few to make even that.

I think the club has really stuffed most things up since the end of the H&A last year but the silver lining could be a new forward line that gains experience and starts functioning as a cohesive unit, a midfield that gets itself right and bloods the future in Johnson and Erasmus - and hopefully a defensive unit that gets back to its best.

Then I think the true window is somewhere in 2025-2030 - with or without Fyfe and Walters.

 

[Joao]

If the club is bullish on Treacy long term, then I'll accept finishing lower to prioritise playing the 3 'KPFs' together all year for the benefit of next year and beyond. Also applies to Ras and Johnno.

Aside from being bitter as **** about the draft pick, I don't see the difference to us of 9th versus 15th and an extra 10 games into long term players is far more valuable to us.

In fact, having a bottom 6 draw next year could be gravy as well so lets aim for 13th.

 

[Ge3ks]

Aside from being bitter as **** about the draft pick,

What draft pick are you shitty about?

 

[gungho]

In hindsight the loss to Saints and bulldogs probably wasn't as bad as we thought.
As many have said, we are probably a 8-10 side unless we really get our s**t together.

 

[poshman]

I have maintained that we will finish 11-13th. I was saying that a few weeks back as I thought we should improve over the year.

Before round 1 I had us at 7-1th.

A top eight finish would mean we haven't just improved this seasons form, it would mean we had improved on last season (given our record atm and the drop off from young players towards the end of the season). That would be nice, however, I think our slow start will be too much to overcome. All onboard getting close to it though!

 

[jinxd]

Can we make it? Yes.
Will we make it? Maybe... But only if we keep improving on the last couple of games.
TBH, I really hope we make it. Finals experience is invaluable, and we don't have those top draft picks to worry about.

 

[estibador]

You know a good game for a side aiming to make the finals to win? North Melbourne at home! FML.

Other than that, the rest of our early losses don't look too bad really considering the subsequent form of the teams involved.

Bulldogs at home was probably a costly 8 point game loss, but not too many teams will be beating Adelaide in Adelaide this year, and Saints have done plenty of damage to other finals contenders already.