News Changes to Father Son/Academy Bidding

[RUNVS]

Here is the news we have been waiting for

AFL set to introduce live bidding for father-son picks
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ding-for-fatherson-picks-20150127-12zb9b.html

The AFL could introduce live bidding during this year's national draft for father-son and academy selections if a proposal put to clubs on Tuesday is passed.

Under the plan, the league would establish a draft value index that assigns a points value for each selection. These points are calculated using statistical analysis of player salaries from 2000 to 2014, which the league says shows the relative market value of players at each draft.

The No.1 pick is rated at 3000 points, with the last pick — No.74 — not having a score. Clubs also must determine whether a 25 per cent discount is applied to both father-son and academy selections, or a 15 per cent discount applied to father-son selections and 25 per cent to academy selections.

The present bidding system is retained, with clubs bidding or nominating for father-son or academy picks. But rather than a rival club securing the player only with its next available pick, which drew criticism last year, the nominating club must use one or more subsequent picks using the value of the points rating.

For instance, Melbourne last year bid its first pick, No.2 overall, for promising Swans' academy midfielder Isaac Heeney, rated a top-three selection by club recruiters. This meant the Swans had to use their first pick, but that was a relatively low 18th pick overall because of where the Swans finished on the ladder. Heeney's selection was dubbed a "steal" by rival clubs.

Under the proposal, with a 25 per cent discount applied as Heeney is an academy player, the Swans would now owe 1888 points (pick two in the draft is rated at 2517 points) and would have to use their first, second (owing 903 points) and third (owing 420 points) round selections. But they would not entirely lose these second and third-round selections – they would shift to the end of the draft.

If a team has leftover points or is in debt, this would carry over to the next year.

It is envisaged that clubs would be given greater time in the draft count to determine whether they would bid for a father-son or academy player, potentially adding more drama to the night.

The idea was developed in conjunction with the player movement advisory group and endorsed by Melbourne University's department of economics.

If introduced, the new system could lead to clubs having the opportunity to exchange future draft picks – that is, in drafts outside of the immediate one.

Collingwood president Eddie McGuire and Hawthorn counterpart Andrew Newbold last year urged AFL chief Gillon McLachlan to change the bidding system for academy and father-son players.

AFL general counsel Andrew Dillon said the league wanted to introduce a more equitable system, all the while ensuring the northern-state clubs continued to invest in their academies.

"The draft is in place to ensure equitable access to player talent for all 18 AFL clubs, while acknowledging that we do wish to encourage investment in the development academies and preserve the tradition of allowing players to follow their fathers and play at the same club.

"A revised bidding system would seek to provide consistent and objective compensation for father-son and academy selections, while continuing to incentivise clubs to select father-son players and invest in their local academies to continue to grow the overall talent pool for the AFL."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ding-for-fatherson-picks-20150127-12zb9b.html

If I understand that correctly our chances of getting Dunkley are really low.

 

[Membling]

Here is the news we have been waiting for

AFL set to introduce live bidding for father-son picks
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ding-for-fatherson-picks-20150127-12zb9b.html


http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ding-for-fatherson-picks-20150127-12zb9b.html

If I understand that correctly our chances of getting Dunkley are really low.

Well if we end up in finals, gonna be reamed. If my basic calculation ie conjecture are right, for Mills and Dunkley then it would be first, second and third. For two drafts.

 

[RUNVS]

Well if we end up in finals, gonna be reamed. If my basic calculation ie conjecture are right, for Mills and Dunkley then it would be first, second and third. For two drafts.

Basically we would need to trade for a top 10 pick to get Dunkley I think.

 

[Millky95]

Isn't the nomination period before the trade period though?

 

[RUNVS]

Isn't the nomination period before the trade period though?

I think you might be right so in that case we have no chance in hell of getting Dunkley as well. Best we could hope for is asking the AFL to move the nomination period until after the trade period.

 

[Millky95]

I think you might be right so in that case we have no chance in hell of getting Dunkley as well. Best we could hope for is asking the AFL to move the nomination period until after the trade period.

Or hope no one nominates for them

 

[RUNVS]

Or hope no one nominates for them

I wonder if we could add up the draft pick numbers as well. Say for instance we traded Hannebery because he wanted to go home and we got pick 1 or 2 for him. That is worth 2600 points so would we be able to use 1800 of those points on Miles and then a further 800 points on Dunkley with our other 1st round pick that would likely be in the high teens?

 

[Membling]

Supposably our first pick the following year gets slid back the following year. I for one, would take the punt on Dunkley

 

[RUNVS]

Supposably our first pick the following year gets slid back the following year. I for one, would take the punt on Dunkley

It all depends on who is coming through academy wise for the 2016 national draft. If we don't see a really top end player coming through that year then it might be worth doing that since the AFL have been talking about trading future picks.

 

[RUNVS]

I would also be very interested in seeing the exact scoring system for every single pick.

If Miles is rated as number 1 pick that is 3000 points with a discount of 25% meaning 2250 points. What pick is worth 2250 points outright?

 

[Membling]

I would also be very interested in seeing the exact scoring system for every single pick.

If Miles is rated as number 1 pick that is 3000 points with a discount of 25% meaning 2250 points. What pick is worth 2250 points outright?

Pick 3 I believe

 

[RUNVS]

Pick 3 I believe

So if we managed to get a pick inside the top 5 for instance we probably could get both Miles and Dunkley if we used pick 3, our other first round pick, round 2 pick, round 3 pick and maybe even round 4.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Collingwood president Eddie McGuire and Hawthorn counterpart Andrew Newbold last year urged AFL chief Gillon McLachlan to change the bidding system for academy and father-son players.

Wow what a surprise Dunkley and Dangerfield to Hawthorn would be right.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Love how we are the only club mentioned in that article this competition stinks and reeks of bullshit.

Just rename the whole new rules to the " SYDNEY" rule its really laughable that nobody gave a toss when the dogs got back to back father sons for nothing.

 

[RUNVS]

Collingwood president Eddie McGuire and Hawthorn counterpart Andrew Newbold last year urged AFL chief Gillon McLachlan to change the bidding system for academy and father-son players.

Wow what a surprise Dunkley and Dangerfield to Hawthorn would be right.

I am trying to work out the general calculations of ways we can get Mills and Dunkley. So if Mills is pick 1 and Dunkley is pick 6 lets say how many points is that with the discount and what would we need to trade in terms of draft picks in order to get to that required number?

I guess without exact points figures for each draft pick it is hard to know right now.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I am trying to work out the general calculations of ways we can get Mills and Dunkley. So if Mills is pick 1 and Dunkley is pick 6 lets say how many points is that with the discount and what would we need to trade in terms of draft picks in order to get to that required number?

I guess without exact points figures for each draft pick it is hard to know right now.

Sorry not contributing much to the discussion im bitter atm

 

[RUNVS]

Sorry not contributing much to the discussion im bitter atm

That's okay. I am really annoyed as well.

 

[Membling]

I am trying to work out the general calculations of ways we can get Mills and Dunkley. So if Mills is pick 1 and Dunkley is pick 6 lets say how many points is that with the discount and what would we need to trade in terms of draft picks in order to get to that required number?

I guess without exact points figures for each draft pick it is hard to know right now.

Sliding rule kind of applies.

3000 for pick 1, 2517 for pick 2 and pick 18 was 950 or so

That logic pick 1 is 3000 pick 6 would be 1700 or so I'd guess.

So 2250 plus 1450 or so.

Approx we would need 3700 points if that were to unfold. That'd be like pick 1 and pick 22-24.

If we finish 17-18 then that'd be 1000-900 points. Leaves us 2700 to get. Which is 3 picks in the mid teens.

Can't see our recruitment tactics getting ****ed up at all.

 

[RUNVS]

Sliding rule kind of applies.

3000 for pick 1, 2517 for pick 2 and pick 18 was 950 or so

That logic pick 1 is 3000 pick 6 would be 1700 or so I'd guess.

So 2250 plus 1450 or so.

Approx we would need 3700 points if that were to unfold. That'd be like pick 1 and pick 22-24.

If we finish 17-18 then that'd be 1000-900 points. Leaves us 2700 to get. Which is 3 picks in the mid teens.

Can't see our recruitment tactics getting stuffed up at all.

So 3700 points. If we got something like 1900 points for our first 3 selections last year that means we would need to find a pick that is worth 1700 points to get both Mills and Dunkley.

Or did I get that wrong. How much was our first 3 round draft picks worth last year?

This is making my head hurt.

 

[RUNVS]

This explains things slightly better

CLUBS will be forced to pay what the AFL says is a fairer price for father-son and academy players under proposed radical changes.
Sydney is the first club set to be stung. The Swans have access to Josh Dunkley (son of former star Andrew) and academy gun Callum Mills (rated a possible No. 1 pick) and could need to cash in a multitude of picks — possibly over two seasons — to secure the pair.
Bidding would shift from the start of trade period to live on draft night under the scheme tabled to clubs late on Tuesday.

The new system could be ticked off at the AFL Commission meeting in March, before Round 1.

The Moneyball-style concept allocates draft picks a declining points value, with No. 1 worth 3000 points.

Recruiters say Gippsland Power’s Dunkley — if he chooses the Swans — could command a pick in the 10-25 range.

That could see the Swans charged about 3000 points for him and Mills.

They would have to build a “points bank” by trading in picks to cash in on draft night, or potentially roll their leftover debt into 2016. The debt would have to be paid, by shifting one or more picks to the back of the draft queue, before the trade period.
When Geelong handed Adelaide picks 14 and 35 for No. 10 and 47 last year the draft value index showed the Cats were the slimmest of winners, 1711 points to 1682.

Under the new system, after Adelaide bid pick 29 for Billy Stretch last year the Demons would have needed to buy that pick to use on Stretch and then pay it off by shifting No. 42 to 51 and having No. 40 tossed to the end of the draft.

But the current system simply allowed them to select Stretch with pick 42.

PAYING THE PRICE
How the Isaac Heeney case would have played out under the AFL’s proposed new father-son/academy bidding system
— Melbourne bids pick No. 2 (worth 2517 points) for Swans academy member Heeney.
— Sydney matches the bid and lands player, but “owes” 1888 points (2517 points, discounted by 25 per cent) to the draft.
— Points are matched to Sydney’s original first pick, No. 18 (985 points), and that pick is moved to the back of the draft. The Swans still owe 903 points.
— Remaining points are matched to Sydney’s next pick, No. 37 (483 points) and that pick is moved to the back of the draft. The Swans still owe 420 points.
— Remaining points are matched to Sydney’s next pick, No. 38 (465 points). The 45 leftover points entitles Sydney to “buy” pick No. 70 rather than go to the back of the line.
— Sydney would have effectively sold picks 18, 37 and 38 for 2 (Heeney), 70, 88 and 89. The Demons then would have taken Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw at No. 3 and 4.
— Last year they were able to select Heeney at No. 18 and retain picks No. 37 and 38. They selected two more academy players, excluded from this scenario.

AFL DRAFT VALUE INDEX

Pick 1: 3000 points (Start of Round 1)
Pick 19: 948 points (Start of Round 2)
Pick 37: 483 points (Start of Round 3)
Pick 55: 207 points (Start of Round 4)
Pick 73: 9 points (Start of Round 5)

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...on-academy-stars/story-fni5f22o-1227198697857

 

[Membling]

So 3700 points. If we got something like 1900 points for our first 3 selections last year that means we would need to find a pick that is worth 1700 points to get both Mills and Dunkley.

Or did I get that wrong. How much was our first 3 round draft picks worth last year?

This is making my head hurt.

Last year we would have had to have given up picks 18, 37 and 38 for Heeney. Approximately 2200 points. We would need about pick 6-8 on top to get them both in this scenario. Or our third and fourth (approx 400 or less combined by my reckoning) plus say pick 10-14

 

[Millky95]

Doesn't this violate the rule that a club has to take 3 new draftees a year?

 

[RUNVS]

Doesn't this violate the rule that a club has to take 3 new draftees a year?

No as we get compensation picks at the end of the draft so we would get something like picks 74 and 75 which are both worth 0 points.

 

[Membling]

So all in all, hope that Mills and Dunks have an OK carnival and get bid on picks 3 and say 9. That'd be 2200 plus 1500 minus 25% and 15%(approx).

So we would need 1650 plus 1275 so 2925 points which would be manageable. Eg pick say 18 (900), plus 37 (483) plus 55 (207) and change we would be around 1300 short. So two picks in the twenties, or next years first slid back to about end second round

 

[Millky95]

No as we get compensation picks at the end of the draft so we would get something like picks 74 and 75 which are both worth 0 points.

Oh yeah. I hope if we go through this s**t and get lose mega late picks, they become absolute stars.

Doesn't this also just encourage tanking more than the normal draft? "Oh we have a F/S pick coming up, looks to be top 5, better lose some games to raise our draft rankings"