Great post , Henderson not out of form thoughThe negativity surrounding our chances for this game stems from a few different factors from where I sit:
1) Fremantle's impeccable form. 6 or 7 of their 8 wins have been completely and utterly over at 3/4 time. Some have been over at 1/4 time. One of the more dominant first 8 games of a season by any team that I can recall to be honest.
2) Our injury list. Smith is a reigning All-Australian and is also the best field kick in a team full of terrible field kicks. Jaensch is in the best 4 kicks in a team full of terrible field kicks. Sloane is our heart and soul and there simply is nobody else on our list remotely capable of playing his role (and his record against Freo is particularly excellent). Brad Crouch is by far our best player under 50 games (it isn't close) and is the closest thing to a top 5 draft pick that our club has ever had in its history. Otten is a solid third tall in either defense or attack. Shaw is the backup to Otten. Douglas is in our best half dozen mids. Kerridge is a very solid and versatile player with reliable skills and a huge tank, and when fully fit would have been the most logical matchup for Fyfe IMO.
3) Our lack of depth. It's one thing to have injuries. The best teams can cover them to a certain extent. Unfortunately we aren't one of the best teams, as evidenced by the fact that we have won one final since 2009 (ironically against Fremantle). We have a bunch of blokes HORRIBLY out of form (van Berlo, Wright, Jenkins, Henderson) that we are essentially forced into playing due to the above injuries combined with the complete vomit that is the remainder of our list (Brodie Martin, Podsiadly, bunch of late draft picks and rookie listed blokes). Both of Jake Kelly (rookie upgrade who tries really hard but his skills are not AFL standard at this stage) and Jake Lever (skinny as a rake and not ready to play a key position yet) are currently being charged with the task of playing on blokes much taller and / or much heavier than them in defense. If Talia takes Pavlich (I strongly doubt this will happen), one of these scrawny undersized 19-20 year olds will be dealing with a combo of Clarke and Sandilands. It's quite ridiculous really. Personally, I think even if Pav does play, Talia needs to take the resting ruckman. We'll see what happens.
Combine all of the above and it smells like a bad one coming this weekend. To be honest, I think you'd struggle to find when the last Adelaide Crows home game was where the visiting side were $1.30ish favourites (I just checked two different sites and Freo are $1.30 on one and $1.29 on the other). Has this ever happened?
Unfortunately I think the bookies are spot on with those odds, just as they were last week with the $1.60ish GWS starting price.
If we get up, it will go down as the greatest HOME non-finals victory in club history from where I sit. I'm just hoping we have a good crack and are at least in the game heading in to the 4th quarter.