Collingwood Almanac 2014

[Knightmare]

Interview with Derek Hine - http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...he-bigfooty-collingwood-podcast-2014.1062679/

For summarised notes on Derek Hine interview see page 5, post 106 of Collingwood Almanac.


My interpretation of the 2014 Best 22 (Fully healthy):
B: Alan Toovey Jack Frost Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Lachlan Keeffe Paul Seedsman
CEN: Clinton Young Steele Sidebottom Heritier Lumumba
HF Alex Fasolo Jarrod Witts Tim Broomhead
F: Ben Reid Travis Cloke Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Scott Pendlebury Dayne Beams
BENCH: Dane Swan Luke Ball Nick Maxwell Matthew Scharenberg
*Sub to be rotated.

My interpretation of the 2014 VFL team (Fully healthy):
B: Jackson Ramsay Jonathon Marsh Ben Sinclair
HB: Tony Armstrong Nathan Brown Adam Oxley
CEN: Sam Dwyer Nathan Freeman Brent Macaffer
HF: Josh Thomas Jesse White Patrick Karnezis
F: Jarryd Blair Tyson Goldsack Kyle Martin
FOLL: Ben Hudson Taylor Adams Ben Kennedy
BENCH: Caolan Mooney Corey Gault Quinten Lynch Marty Clarke Peter Yagmoor
* VFL players left out intentionally to demonstrate the list balance of the AFL squad.



2014 list changes:
Retire: Quinten Lynch Nick Maxwell Luke Ball
Delist: Marty Clarke
Rookie promote: Jack Frost
Rookie delist: Peter Yagmoor Caolan Mooney
Rookie retire: Ben Hudson

Projected 2015 best 22 (Fully healthy):
B: Alan Toovey Jack Frost Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Lachlan Keeffe Paul Seedsman
CEN: Clinton Young Steele Sidebottom Heritier Lumumba
HF Alex Fasolo Jarrod Witts Tim Broomhead
F: Ben Reid Travis Cloke Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Scott Pendlebury Dayne Beams
BENCH: Matthew Scharenberg Dane Swan Taylor Adams Patrick Karnezis
EMG: Ben Kennedy Nathan Freeman Nathan Brown

Projected 2015 list changes:
Delist: Tony Armstrong Ben Sinclair Adam Oxley Jackson Ramsay Sam Dwyer Jesse White Jarryd Blair
Rookie Delist: Corey Gault Kyle Martin


List needs:

High priority:

Wing: We have Young and Lumumba on the wings but with both nearing 30 years of age it is time to start looking for long term replacements for both of them. Someone who can break the lines would be optimal.

The guys I have on my consider list: Jarrod Pickett in this year’s draft would be a strong list fit with the way he breaks the lines and takes on the game frequently. He likely goes top 10 which for me is slightly too high but with a late first round or second round pick he is someone I would jump at if available.

Connor Menadue’s game I very much like with his sidestep, acceleration and precision footskills. If he can put on weight I like him more as an onballer more than on a wing but for injection of speed and skill and with the way he can influence games I like him and if available in the second round he would be a terrific selection.

Jarrod Garlett’s stocks I anticipate will rise with what I imagine will be a strong draft combine. If he does last till the Pies second round selection he would be another strong list fit and someone who projects as a long term option and an appropriate choice with his combination of speed and endurance.

My recommendations: It all comes down to who is considered best available on the draft board at the various selections but at this stage I would strongly consider using the clubs second round pick on one of Pickett, Menadue or Garlett depending on availability with all strong list fits and representing strong value if available. If none of the three are available in the second round, if we decide to trade the pick or someone else is deemed to be a better talent in the second round I would then late draft and rookie draft re-assess and see if there are any identified players who are worth picking.


Young next generation franchise key forward: We have no high level key forwards younger than 24 years of age. Cloke is 27 years of age and like when we handed over the baton from Rocca to Cloke we now need to find that next guy who can play with and learn off Cloke for a few years and eventually take over his position and take over our front half as that next go to guy. Darcy Moore can be had as a father son selection and the real positive with him is he is a guy who has key forward talent and spreads out age demographic up forward which we from a long term standpoint need. It just in my mind remains to be seen whether Moore becomes that next franchise key forward.Regardless of how good Moore becomes even if Moore is added I would be looking for a further potentially elite key forward to compliment Moore as today key defenders are so good that they can shut down the one elite key forward as we have seen with Cloke this year missing Reid, but with that second elite key forward it is much harder to defend the two high level key forwards and that second young elite key forward is something I would be on the lookout for over the next few seasons as that eventual long term partner for Moore.

The guys I have on my consider list: Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Thomas Boyd are three young key forwards any club would most want. If sometime down the track one of the three requests a trade back to Victoria I would be throwing every piece other than Pendlebury, Cloke and Grundy at GWS to make it happen as they look at this point like they will be the three dominant key forwards in the competition over the next 10 years of the younger key forwards coming through.

The other option I would strongly consider is Reece McKenzie in this year’s draft who I feel has gone under the radar and has not received the attention his strong play suggests he should. He has shown that as a go to key forward he can take over games with his contested marking and scoreboard impact as the Travis Cloke equivalent of the TAC Cup as that dominant mark and goal forward. What impresses me with McKenzie has been his production from July onward, really demonstrating that he can take over games and be a dominant go to target. If he is available at the clubs second round pick I would jump at him and make his selection a priority, even over some of the pacey types or quality midfielders who may also be available at this selection with McKenzie in my view representing superior value to any other possible options at this point.

My recommendation: With none of the big three GWS key forwards to be available this offseason it is a situation of needing to wait another year or so and see if any great opportunity presents then. A young franchise key forward in my mind is the primary long term list need and they are so hard to find that you really have to take the chance and make a bold play when the opportunity is there and if the opportunity for one of Cameron, Patton or Boyd opens up I would strongly recommend making an aggressive move to bring them to Collingwood. For now until one of those three GWS key forwards request a trade back to Victoria I would pick Moore as a father son selection and develop him as our long term key forward. If Reece McKenzie is available in the second round I would have him at the top of my draft board and take him with that selection with the intent to develop him into our next go to forward, to play in combination with Moore.


Immediate ruckman who can also play forward well: Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts are both while among the best ruckmen in the competition for their age are still developing players and with ruckmen taking longer than other players to develop and usually not peaking until their mid to late 20s we would benefit from an upgrade in the immediate. Next season Grundy and Witts are not winning us finals games or giving our midfielders consistent first delivery and as young ruckmen having in recent years seen ruckmen who were drafted in the top few picks and played regularly during their first few seasons consistently struggle with injury it is clear in my mind that we require a quality veteran ruckman who can play in the seniors and take the load off Grundy and Witts allowing them more development time in the Collingwood VFL team. With Reid’s recent injury issues in recent seasons I would strongly advise taking a ruckman who also has the ability to play forward and present as a genuine second marking target in the forward 50 to help take the pressure off Cloke and improve the unpredictability within our front half.

The guys I have on my consider list: The now retired Dean Cox would be my dream get and absolute perfect fit for everything we need and are looking to achieve with our ruck division. I do not see Cox coming out of retirement as he knows he is no longer good for 22 games a year as he was in the past which seems to be his expectation of himself and he also comes across as loyalty to West Coast and that is before considering the ruck coaching job he has at the club.None the less I would make a bold enquiry and make a strong appeal to him to include a substantial one year offer. Cox at his advanced age would need to be managed and may only give 15, maybe 20 games including finals but even 5 or 10 senior games from Cox would be completely worthwhile for a number of reasons. From an on field production standpoint Cox is still one of the most productive and probably still the best rounded ruckman in the game and a substantial improvement on what Grundy and Witts are currently producing. Come finals time Cox still has the ability to be a big difference maker and the quality of ruckman needed if we want to do any damage come September. Grundy and Witts as good as they will become are still not the difference makers needed by position to win the big finals today and with young ruckmen historically rarely of great usefulness to winning early career, generally peaking in their mid to late 20s they will both require more time before they can make the sizeable contributions we would like them both to make. Beyond the fact that Cox can still play the most compelling benefit in my view of bringing Cox over is for the development of Grundy, Witts and M.Cox. Dean Cox’s veteran leadership is something the club badly lacks as a now young, inexperienced list that has in large part fallen apart in the second half of the season since the retirement of Nick Maxwell. An additional advantage of the recruitment of Cox is if Cox is in the seniors it can allow Witts and Grundy some more time to develop and expand their games at VFL level. I do not want Grundy or Witts to get too much senior AFL exposure and have to carry our ruck division too early in their careers as having seen Kreuzer, Leuenberger and Naitanui struggle with their injuries and seeing Josh Fraser also carry the load far too early in his career and really deteriorate in his mid-late 20s I am very conscious of throwing Grundy and Witts into the ruck at AFL level too early and too often.

Mitch Clark as a relief ruck spending most of his minutes up forward would be a perfect list fit if he decides to make a comeback and is another appropriate addition and list fit. He is a strong contested marking target who can draw the ball which will further help take the pressure off Cloke and prove a better compliment for what we are trying to achieve than White has this year. Clark also has the ability to provide further ruck depth and as he demonstrated in his Brisbane days.

Jonathan Giles with GWS seems to have gone out of favour and with the addition of Mumford and has as a result received limited opportunity this season. In our situation Giles is an ideal upgrade on White as someone who is best suited as a complement to Witts or Grundy in the senior side playing the majority of his minutes in the front half and relieving through the ruck as required. Like with Cox and Clark, Giles is another player who is a better list fit and upgrade on White because like with Cox and Clark he can draw the ball in the front half as that big marking presence who he can clunk his marks taking the pressure off Cloke and enabling Cloke to have the best opportunity to dominate more games more often. Giles while best suited in my view as a number two ruckman is also capable as required to play the number one ruck role which from a depth standpoint more than covers us.

My recommendations: I would start out by making a bold play for Dean Cox and making as compelling a case as possible. The next option on my list would be Mitch Clark who I would take a shot at if he passes the medical tests and the psychologists are satisfied that he is mentally in the right place and able to make a return to senior AFL football. If neither Cox nor Clark happens then Jon Giles would be the next on my shortlist. If none of these options eventuate I would stick it out with what we have with Grundy and Witts as our ruck combination and White or Gault offering us enough depth for next season.

 

[Knightmare]

Medium priority:

Crumbing forward with pace, ability to hit the scoreboard and provide strong tackle pressure: We have a number of midfielders who can rotate through that front half and some good general forwards who are more marking smalls but if a freakish forward talent is available either on the trade table or mid/late/rookie draft who could perform this role to a high level that is when I would be looking to take a shot at someone of this type. Collingwood lack some pace and up forward the club mostly have marking small forwards who while capable crumbers are not crumbers first and are not chase down tackling specialists so a speedy crumbing forward who can provide strong scoreboard impact and excellent tackling energy would give the team a different edge up front and complement the marking forwards we have well.

Options: Jeff Garlett if available would be the perfect fit and is someone I would label as being the clubs most realistic trade target this trade period. Given the clubs lack of pace and lack of small crumbing forwards who can hit the scoreboard and pressure he is a perfect list fit if Carlton put him on the trade table.

My recommendations: Jeff Garlett if available for the right price I would take but otherwise there are no other options in the draft or available through trade that appeal to me to fill this specific role and if we were to miss out on Jeff Garlett I be inclined to come back next year and re-assess the options available then unless the club see someone else in the draft of equivalent talent.



Rebounding general defender: The balance in the back half is not right as currently constructed. We have a group of capable stoppers but not enough guys who can generate meaningful drive out of the back half by foot. Toovey, Williams, Sinclair, Ramsay, Frost and Brown is too negating and limited by foot and there are too few quality ball users who can by foot generate meaningful rebound out of the back half and hit their targets consistently. With the ACL to Scharenberg the back half is again looking depleted and lacking rebound as was the case this season.

The guys I have on my consider list: Martin Gleeson for me is the optimal addition to the back half as someone I evaluate long term as one of the best backmen who can play up the field in the competition. Gleeson has shown to this point strong upward growth in his game and has the right mix of attributes to become a dominant backman with his ability to read the play and read flight of the ball for intercept marks along with his strong hands overhead and his class and precise footskills. He is light but the guy is just a natural footballer and a high level natural footballer. I would not hesitate in signing Gleeson to a long term deal as someone who from season one in my mind would be an instant top 15 player on the list.

Errin Wasley-Black is the final guy I would have on my list to consider. His form and production has been excellent through the NEAFL for NT Thunder and he has shown strong upward improvement in his second half to the season. He is someone else who can inject some real pace. There has been little talk about Wasley-Black so I imagine he could be had as a rookie and I feel he would be an excellent get as someone who has not received as much attention as his NEAFL form warrants.

My recommendations: Martin Gleeson for me is the guy and given he is uncontracted I would make a strong pitch to Gleeson with a three or four year deal to his liking and find an appropriate deal with Essendon to get the deal done as someone long term I feel has the scope to be one of our most prominent pieces in our back half. The other list addition I would strongly consider is Wasley-Black as a rookie.


Draft/trade/free agency preview:

Free agency notes:

What I believe in free agency to be the most correct strategy instead of going after the big names that will attract big currency is to play it smart and go for players who are clear best 22 players and fill list needs but will not require a premium salary to buy. As we have seen with Lance Franklin moving to Sydney on that horrible nine year, ten million dollar deal with free agency and clubs not fully understanding free agency yet, clubs will make some poor decisions and overpay big name talents to get them in the door so that their current clubs do not match the deal. The result of this will mean the team paying for that top line free agent will have no salary cap flexibility to play with in the future restricting their ability to add players in future seasons and more than likely lose some of their current players which is why I strongly recommend Collingwood avoid going down the Sydney path. Next year with Patrick Dangerfield and Trent Cotchin free agents I predict another couple of clubs will follow Sydney’s lead from last year and put forward some irresponsible offers forward to these players in order to attract them to their clubs. It is these bidding wars that I predict will ruin clubs over coming years and completely restrict their chances of adding talent from other team lists and makes it incredibly hard to retain their current list talent. Do not be surprised when a club overpays a guy as Sydney did with Franklin last year that players will need to go as we saw with Mumford last season and quite possibly Malceski this season due to the one financially irresponsible move. A few other heavy spenders I strongly expect will find themselves in a similar bad salary cap situation so the more flexible we keep our salary cap the greater our opportunity will be to capitalise on the questionable moves of rival clubs as GWS smartly did last year with Mumford stealing him for next to nothing.

A better strategy instead of seeking a franchise level talent through free agency would be to go after clear best 22 guys in free agency who fill list needs, complement our current list talent and can improve our best team. They will not require million dollar, five plus year deals to acquire because they are not the big name franchise players. And they are the types of players Collingwood as the biggest club in the country with an encouraging young list and winning chances into the future should have the ability to attract as we did with Quinten Lynch and Clinton Young in the first year of free agency with those types of additions the types of additions that need to be replicated over future seasons.




Collingwood free agency notes:

Only Tyson Goldsack still needs signing and hopefully a deal is reached whereby we do not need to overpay to retain his services but in saying that he is worth retaining with the positional flexibility he offers both forward and back is valuable.

With a good young group of developing players it is important that we leave some salary cap space available to allow for us to firstly retain our current talent but to also continue in future seasons to have that ability to attract good opposition talent.

Free agents to target:

David Mundy would have been a very good get but has re-signed with Fremantle. James Frawley would have been a good get but is asking too much and I imagine he will be more inclined to sign with Geelong or Hawthorn. Nick Malceski as a free agent if he was to sign a lean contract would also be a good get and helpful backman given our lack of rebounding options down back but I am not seeing him signing a lean deal after another strong season. Shaun Higgins is terrific but after a strong season will also I imagine want too much. Ryan O’Keefe is another I would love to have as someone even in the NEAFL still playing up to an AFL quality standard with his veteran leadership and professionalism an ingredient that could greatly aid the development of our youth and at worst for a season help add some depth and competition for spots through the midfield or up forward but given the club have been so aggressive in turning over the veterans with Ball now also retired it would look bad to go after O’Keefe with a senior list position.


Delisted free agents to target:

A wait and see job. Probably one of the expansion clubs and most likely GWS with their league best depth let go of someone interesting. Maybe one of the top teams such as Sydney who also have strong depth need to let go of some good depth players or perhaps one of the bottom teams does a large scale list cleanout. Maybe a club loses faith in a talented guy who has had his injury issues. In any case it is something to wait till the end of the season for more information on but it is not an avenue I would advise the club to go down unless there is someone we really feel strongly about and evaluate as an immediate clear best 22 guy. Recycled players as a rule are the lowest percentage form of recruiting historically and in the most part typically are more where you can find depth more than genuine best 22 players and we have got more than enough depth with our list issue now more finding those best 5, best 10 and best 15 players who can really elevate our best 22 to the next level while also filling any remaining list holes to give our best team a better balance to include more pace and more damaging footskills.

The more intriguing name of those delisted free agents to be delisted to this point in my mind is Jackson Allen from Gold Coast who with his pace and long kicking can on a wing do some damage and possibly fill a need. It is just a question of would he be a best 22 player? My suggestion is likely not so I would be inclined to pass.


Potential trade targets:

High priority (must haves if available and perfect list fits):

Jeremy Cameron/Jonathon Patton/Thomas Boyd: You would love to have any of them be your go to forward for the next 10 years but it is not going to happen until one of the three request a trade home and that is likely a few seasons away yet.

Jeff Garlett: He seems to be going out of favour at Carlton and has had an unusually poor season on and off the field so I anticipate he will be available during trade week. He would certainly give us a different edge up forward with his pace, ability to cover the ground at speed and break away from his opponent while also providing strong tackling pressure and as a crumbing option up forward who can hit the scoreboard in bunches and break games open. As far as I am concerned Garlett is a perfect list fit and someone I would strongly recommend we make a play for as a guy who given his poor season will not take as big of a trade as his volume of work from over the years suggests it probably should be.

Mitch Clark: Still unclear if Clark returns but if he does and physically and mentally he looks right to go I would make a play for him. He is a genuine marking presence in the front half and is exactly what Cloke needs with Clark able to draw a double team and clunk his marks. I imagine it will be a process getting him back to the player he was given he has essentially taken the season off and will not be in peak physical condition but he is someone who can work his way into the season and prove an ideal list addition as either a pure key forward or a key forward who can relieve Witts or Grundy in the ruck.

Jon Giles: GWS ruckman/key forward who could provide some real support to Cloke up forward with his presence as such a big body up forward who is so hard to defend with the sheer size of him and with his ability to take a grab in the front half. Perfect fit alongside either of Witts or Grundy as the relief ruckman who spends most of his time in the front half supporting Cloke. With Reid’s recent injury history the addition of Giles or an equal or better marking forward option is essential to the success of Cloke and the functionality of our front half.

Martin Gleeson: He may just sign a long deal with Essendon and nothing will come of it but Gleeson is an exceptional footballer who I would aggressively pursue as a backman who can rotate through the midfield. Long term by position Gleeson I feel has the scope to be one of the best backmen in the game with his ability to read the play and the class he shows with ball in hand.

 

[Knightmare]

Draft notes:

This year while the top end in my view lacks that franchise player and the depth is relatively shallow it is a strong year for key position players and probably the deepest year for key position players since 2006 with so many good talls likely to go inside the first and second round.

In making the comment that this draft is relatively shallow I still feel there are some guys late/rookie draft who have gone slightly under the radar and could go on and have strong careers at AFL level as is the case every year and a further pick somewhere around pick 15 could bring us a very high level long term player.

First round Moore in my view will be a strong get as someone who would not otherwise be there if not for being a father son selection. Assuming Moore is picked first up the other picks presumably fill whatever needs we have not addressed through trade week and free agency.



2014 draft power rankings:

-- High level difference makers --

1. Peter Wright (VIC - KPF/Ruck)

2. Patrick McCartin (VIC - KPF)

3. Christian Petracca (VIC – Mid/Fwd)

4. Isaac Heeney (Syd – Academy - NSW – Mid)

5. Angus Brayshaw (VIC – Mid)

6. Sam Durdin (SA – KPD/KPF)

7. Darcy Moore (Coll - F/S – VIC – KPF/KPD)

8. Reece McKenzie (VIC – KPF)

9. Jake Lever (VIC – KPD)

10. Hugh Goddard (VIC – KPD/KPF)

-- Capable contributors --

11. Jarrod Pickett (WA – Mid)

12. Caleb Marchbank (VIC – KPD)

13. Jayden Laverde (VIC – Util)

14. Connor Menadue (VIC – Util)

15. Oscar McDonald (VIC – KPD)

16. Billy Stretch (Melb – F/S - SA – Mid/Fwd)

17. Connon Blakely (WA – Mid)

18. Dean Gore (SA – Mid/Fwd)

19. Alex Neal-Bullen (SA – Mid)

20. Peter Bampton (SA – Mid)

21. Jarrod Garlett (WA –Mid)

22. Lachlan Weller (QLD – Util)

23. Liam Duggan (VIC – Util)

24. Paul Ahern (VIC – Mid/Fwd)

25. Matthew Hammelmann (Bris – Academy - QLD – KPF)

26. Jeremy Finlayson (GWS – Academy – NSW – KPF)

27. Liam Dawson (Bris – Academy - QLD – Util)

28. Brayden Maynard (VIC – Util)

29. Jackson Nelson (VIC – Mid/Def)

30. Toby McLean (VIC – Fwd/Mid)

--In with a chance of making the grade--

31. Jayden Foster (WBD – F/S – VIC – KPF)

32. Jordan De Goey (VIC –Mid/Fwd)

33. Alec Waterman (WCE – F/S - WA - Mid)

34. Clem Smith (WA - Util)

35. Corey Ellis (VIC – Util)

36. Tom Lamb (VIC – Util)

37. Harris Andrews (Bris – Academy - QLD – KPF/KPD)

38. Kyle Langford (VIC –Fwd/Def)

39. Jordan Cunico (VIC – Mid)

40. Edward Vickers-Willis (VIC – Util)

41. Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (VIC – Def/Mid)

42. Jack Steele (GWS - Academy - NSW – Mid/Fwd)

43. Josh Glenn (SA – Util)

44. Jack Cripps (WA – KPF/Ruck)

45. Errin Wasley-Black (NT –Def/Mid)

46. Tyler Keitel (WA – KPF/KPD)

47. Corey Gregson (SA –Mid/Fwd)

48. Touk Miller (VIC – Mid/Fwd)

49. Harrison Wigg (SA – Mid/Def)

50. Daniel Howe (VIC – Util)



As a rough guide these are the players I would be looking at/hoping for at the various selections:

1st round:

Darcy Moore as a father son selection will presumably be the pick. He has key forward talent and has the right mix of traits to have become a high level option long term.


2nd round:

Reece McKenzie has some Travis Cloke to him as a similar contested mark and goal forward. If available in the second round would represent strong value as a possible go to guy up forward who from July as a go to forward played some dominant footy.

Hugh Goddard can play forward but I most like him at centre half back. If available he would represent strong value as someone with the scope to pass our current key defenders by with his ability limit the influence of his direct opponent while also providing some rebound.

Connor Menadue with his sidestep, explosive pace and damaging but efficient footskills has some real star potential to him with his mix of dominant traits and ability to exert his influence on games when around the ball.

Jarrod Garlett if available would be another strong value pick and excellent list fit as an outside linebreaker.

In the absence of these players I would go with the best available talent on the draft board – which on my draft board would be one of the following midfielders – Blakely, Gore, Neal-Bullen orBampton who all look like strong chances to become AFL quality midfielders given their strong senior state league performances.



3rd round:

*Best available slider (see: 2014 draft power rankings)




Rookie draft:

Best available sliders (see: 2014 draft power rankings).

Toby McLean if available as a rookie would be a bargain as a well performed forward who has demonstrated a strong upward trending growth to his game and ability to push through the midfield as the season has progressed suggesting strong scope to improve over future seasons. Errin Wasley-Black is another I anticipate will be available and is someone else who has the performances on the board and has shown strong upward growth in his game and.


Category two rookies:

Mason Cox: Signed as a super tall project American ruckman with some real mobility. As a ruck/forward it will be interesting to see how quickly he can pick up the game.

I also recommend: Johann Wagner and Conor McKenna (Ireland).

Wagner with his height, versatility and ability to take on the game and hit the scoreboard in the front half looks like the better of the participants on the program, The Recruit. While I have not seen him play a full game he seems to have a feel of something like a less powerful Stewart Crameri as a tallish type who can either play on a forward flank or push deeper into the front half but then has excellent pace and ability to take on the game. While it is far from certain he makes the grade as essentially a free shot with a category two rookie position he is one of the options guys to take a chance on.

Conor McKenna is someone else who again I have not seen play live but from all the information I have collected on his performances v AIS and from the small sample of footage I have collected I feel he has the opportunity to be among the better of the Irish recruits. Looking at his Gaelic footage he can kick and finish on goal with both feet. He has shown he has a willingness to take on the game. And in his few games v AIS he was well performed and hit the scoreboard which suggests he has the scope to make the transition to playing AFL and possibly become a useful piece perhaps on a forward flank.

 

[Knightmare]

An example of a possible offseason outcome:
Retire: Quinten Lynch, Nick Maxwell, Luke Ball
Delist: Marty Clarke
Rookie promote: Jack Frost
Rookie delist: Peter Yagmoor, Caolan Mooney
Rookie retire: Ben Hudson


Free agent moves:

Goldsack to re-sign.



Trades:

Trade 1:

Jarryd Blair for Jeff Garlett

Rationale: Mick loves his old Collingwood boys and Carlton could do with a more reliable replacement for Garlett such as Blair who can rotate between the midfield and front half. It is unclear whether Garlett is in Carlton’s long term plans and it is unclear how highly they value Garlett given he has been in and out of the sub vest and has played so much VFL footy this year. Garlett has performed below standard both at AFL and VFL level but this season has been an outlier season for Garlett and I tend to consider that a positive as a potential buyer. His sample size over the years is strong with a number of years of strong performances under his belt and with small forwards there tend to be fluctuations from year to year. In the first half of 2013 Garlett was arguably in All Australian form so he has definitely got some difference making ability when his confidence is up but with small forwards it is not uncommon for these types of form fluctuations to happen from year to year and with his talent it is very reasonable that he can rediscover his better form in future seasons. As a list fit Garlett is a perfect fit because he gives us an injection of pace, tackling energy, crumbing ability and scoreboard pressure we have been missing in that front half.



Heritier Lumumba for Mitch Clark or Jon Giles

Rational: Lumumba seems disgruntled and seems increasingly open to a trade. As trade targets Mitch Clark if he returns to the AFL would be a strong option with the other player I would consider being GWS’ Jon Giles. The idea with both is they can both play some relief ruck but their value comes in the front half as genuine marking targets who can help take the pressure off Cloke and better balance our front half. Both Melbourne and GWS require more veteran experience and more mature bodies in the back half or on a wing and would both benefit from the addition of Lumumba who would for both teams be an instant best 22 player.



Jack Frost for Martin Gleeson

Rational: I do not advocate moving Jack Frost but to get something you have to give something and with Brown, Keeffe, Marsh who is developing well and Moore and Reid both as required able to play key defence the loss of Frost is a loss we can cover yet he an appealing enough player as a young but already proven AFL key defender for Essendon to consider the deal with their relative lack of key position players. Gleeson is definitely not someone Essendon want to lose but he is someone who in our situation would be a strong list fit and someone who from next year and long term has the ability to be a top talent for us in the back half and rotating through the midfield.




Draft additions:

First round: Darcy Moore (F/S)

Second round: Reece McKenzie (or best available)

Third round: Oscar McDonald (or best available)

Rookie promote: Jack Frost

--

*All rookie picks open to change if higher rated talents are available.

Rookie first round: Toby McLean (or best available slider)

Rookie second round: *best available slider*

Rookie third round: Errin Wasley-Black

Category two additions: Mason Cox, Johann Wagner and Conor McKenna.



Senior list in, in this scenario: Jeff Garlett (trade), Mitch Clark (trade) or Jon Giles (trade), Martin Gleeson (trade), Darcy Moore (F/S), Reece McKenzie, Oscar McDonald and Jack Frost (promoted).

Senior list out: Jarryd Blair (trade), Heritier Lumumba (trade), Jack Frost (trade), Marty Clarke (delist), Quinten Lynch (retire), Nick Maxwell (retire), Luke Ball (retire).

In rookie: Toby McLean, *best available slider*, Errin Wasley-Black, Mason Cox (category 2), Johann Wagner (category 2) and Conor McKenna (category 2).

Out rookie: Jack Frost (promoted), Ben Hudson (retire), Peter Yagmoor (delist), Caolan Mooney (delist).



What our fully healthy best 22 for 2015 would look like if this offseason eventuated: (New players bolded)

B: Alan Toovey Nathan Brown Martin Gleeson
HB: Tom Langdon Lachlan Keeffe Paul Seedsman
CEN: Clinton Young Scott Pendlebury Steele Sidebottom
HF Tim Broomhead Travis Cloke Jamie Elliott
F: Mitch Clark/Jon Giles Ben Reid Jeff Garlett
FOLL: Jarrod Witts Dayne Beams Dane Swan
BENCH: Marley Williams Alex Fasolo Matthew Scharenberg Taylor Adams
In the mix: Brodie Grundy Patrick Karnezis Ben Kennedy Nathan Freeman
*Grundy/Witts rotating between AFL/VFL – depending on form.


How our list stacks up as presently constructed:

We have excellent list depth across the park and good quality youth coming through who are improving but there is not enough high end talent and star power. Back in 2010 and 2011 we had many more players performing to a high level and now we are seeing a team with fewer stars and a large group of low level role players filling out the best 22.

The most significant reason for this drop off and loss of star talent since 2010/2011 is the declines of those 25+ and rapid declines of those 30 or older. Swan and Ball both have dropped away badly from who they were prior to this season. Maxwell while he had that strong start to the season this year has other than that not been the same player since the Malthouse days and has struggled to adjust to the more transition running game that is played today. Lumumba while he had a strong 2013 campaign his 2012 and 2014 seasons have been poor and a significant drop off from the player he was under Malthouse. Dale Thomas with his constant foot injuries as a player in his mid-20s has not been the same player since his special 2011 season. Similarly Alan Didak since that 2010 grand final as a guy in his mid-late 20s just has not looked the same player. Reid since 2011 has struggled with various leg, ankle and foot injuries which have constantly hampered him. In comparing this to the other top teams we have experienced an unusually high number of players declining earlier than you see at other clubs which is something that will need to change, particularly with Pendlebury and Cloke in their mid to late 20s. As a contrasting case study looking at what has occurred at Fremantle we have seen the opposite affect take place with Ross Lyon actually elevating the play of those in the mid to late 20s and helping almost all his veterans play career best football. With clubs such as Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong and St Kilda other notable examples of clubs where veterans have typically remained productive for longer and into their early-mid 30s. Understanding this we will as a club need to improve from an injury prevention perspective and find new ways to help those at or nearing the more advanced ages of their careers continue to experience improvement in their games.

Another factor I feel has adversely affected our list is how quick we have been from 2010 onward to cut our veteran list talent who while in most part were correctly identified as no longer a part of the clubs best 22 I still feel had more to offer with the value of those veterans being the intangible benefit that is the veteran leadership they can offer and contribute to aid the development of our youth. It should come as no surprise that our youth broke out in 2010, in 2010 we still had a large group of veterans and we introduced Ball and Jolly who both further provided veteran leadership. Additionally in 2007 before the retirement of Buckley and Clement we similarly saw in that season a number of our young players breaking out. You can also go around the competition and look at the correlation between veteran leadership, winning and the development of youth. Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn are the first teams I think of when thinking about veteran leadership with continually among the older age profiles in the competition and they are all teams who from year to year continue to improve their existing list talent. Melbourne on the other hand and the same can be said of Gold Coast and GWS who both despite all the talented draftees they have injected have all failed to develop and in the case of Gold Coast and GWS developed slower than many anticipated because they do not have the quantity of quality veterans around to mentor and help the development of their youth. Given this I would recommend keeping veteran list talent on beyond their best 22 usefulness and look to keep them on in the most part while they still play to at least a capable depth standard.

A further reason for our decline from 2010 has been the lack of improvement from our now mid-career talent. Of our 2010 premiership group while we had an incredibly young group, the list talent we have had since 2010 has in the most part failed to take that next step. Reid had that dominant 2011 season but has struggled with injury since, Beams broke out in 2012, Toovey while reliable in 2010 has improved mildly along with Sidebottom. But the reality with that group is those established players and those then young players from that 2010 premiership group have in large part failed to develop as much as could reasonably have been projected at that time given how young that group was. Understanding this I can only conclude that our program and preseason training does not push our players as hard as it needs to and a substantially harder program needs to be implemented to help those players who have been in our system for more than just a few years to get out of their comfort zones and be challenged to experience substantially greater footballing growth than they are currently experiencing.

Now as a result of all this we are in a position where it appears from the outside that we are putting all our stocks into the development of our young players hoping that they will elevate our list to that next level. Are our young guys going to make us contenders? It is plausible and we have got some good young talent coming through but I consider it highly unlikely that they will make us contenders when the rate of decline of our veteran list talent from year after year is considered. And as a list I am not at present seeing enough of that top end talent required to take that next step. I expect the young group continue their improvement and I expect one or two of our young players down the road become A graders (probably Grundy and Scharenberg when he eventually gets healthy or Broomhead to guess) and a number of others to incrementally elevate their games and become B graders but I am not seeing such high level talent on our list that I would say “yeah this team can win a premiership” which is the concern considering where we have come from. Watching Gold Coast and GWS struggle these past few years it is plainly clear that youth regardless of how talented does not win. Men win football games and it is critical to have quality veterans around, even if it is in the reserves as we have seen with both Collingwood and Geelong over the years to aid and speed up the development of the younger players. The retirement of both Maxwell and Ball is a significant setback in my view regardless of whether evaluated as part of the best 22. They both would assuming healthy have put pressure on the best 22 to perform but most importantly their professionalism and leadership will be missed and the lack of their presence on the field and on the training track will adversely affect the development of our youth. When the opportunity presents it will be critical to aggressively seek talent that can make our list stronger in the immediate with a view that our potential premiership window is the next three to five years (coinciding with the projected lifespan whereby Cloke and Pendlebury remain sufficiently productive).

The final factor I feel has adversely affected our list has been our heavy list turnover. We saw with Melbourne between the years 2010-2013 with their roughly 1000 games turned over every year that regardless of how much high end young talent is introduced that doing that does not work and given the young group we had in 2010 that won the premiership I cannot help but feel we have been wrongly sucked into over-valuing youth and undervaluing list stability and the value of veteran list talent. We have seemingly every year let guys go too early – Michael Hartley, Jonathan Ceglar, John McCarthy and Danny Stanley. Along with veterans Ball and Maxwell this year and Didak, Krakouer and Jolly last year who all from a veteran leadership standpoint I would argue would have aided our team and the development of our youth while also providing useful depth at their respective positions. We have also since 2010 traded a number of our premiership players in Shaw, Dawes and Wellingham and while the return was fair and long term arguably beneficial to our list it has in the immediate set us back significantly and been another factor contributing to our drop from premiership relevance.

 

[Knightmare]

(2014 rankings – based where they in my view should sit at the selection table today)

-- A graders --

1. Scott Pendlebury: Captaincy has in no way hurt Pendlebury’s on field performance and I anticipate more of the same again in 2015.

-- B graders (High level difference makers)--

2. Dayne Beams: Has had an excellent season as that second dominant midfielder and has rediscovered his 2012 form. An area I would like for Beams to improve is his field kicking. He has a nice smooth kicking action and is an excellent finisher around goal but he needs to find more damaging targets around the ground. Beams rarely lowers his eyes finding targets in better position, he has poor vision and struggles to find open targets up the field and after winning the contested ball in close and rather than finding the best option he will just as quickly as possible get the ball onto his boot and get it forward purely just to make ground. I also see a similar theme after a mark or free kick where he is generally more inclined to kick long down the line to a contest seeming to lack the vision to find better targets. If he can start to find these more damaging targets around the ground then Beams will be spoken about more in the most elite midfield company. One further concern with Beams is his lack of durability seeming every second season struggling with something relatively major so his body will need to continually be closely monitored to ensure he stays on the park 20+ games every season.

3. Steele Sidebottom: He has remained much the same player over recent years but still a very, very high level player and someone who produces in the big games. He has played a bit of everywhere finding the footy in bunches, running both ways and using it efficiently but I would like to see Sidebottom take that next step and establish himself as a fixture through the midfield.

4. Jamie Elliott: Elliott has been one of the big improvers this year. He is having more good games, finding more of the footy more often, pushing up the field more and finding more ways to be effective. He is holding his own 1v1 which is incredibly impressive for a small, playing taller than his height making him a tough matchup. He looks comfortable with ball in hand and has good evasive movement with his small, quick steps. He is a much improved crumbing forward this year and while his strength is still his overhead marking and aerial work he is making better decisions as to when to launch at the ball and when to stay down at ground level and be front and centre. Also noteworthy is Elliott’s excellent conversion in front of goal this season.

-- C graders (Inside best 22) --

5. Dane Swan: He is not who he has been in past seasons playing his new role spending more time forward as a forward who rotates into the midfield. He seems to be lacking some of his previous running power and like our other veterans before Swan as he has hit 30 he has hit the wall and while still very effective he is not the same player he has been in seasons past. Next year I would like to see Swan return to our midfield and again become a midfielder first. What he does through the midfield is just so valuable that we cannot be without it with his contested ball winning and running power. He has got that competitive edge and power through the midfield we have been missing this year. Swan next year can still up forward have his rest periods but even now that he is 30 years of age he is still without question best utilised through the midfield and I am confident he has more strong years in him where he can continue through the midfield to have an influence if he can get his body right.

6. Travis Cloke: A poor season by Cloke’s standards. I put it down less to Cloke not playing well and carrying too many injuries but more so our lack of an adequate second marking key forward in the front half. Jesse White has been unable to clunk his marks and be the genuine number two key forward option like Reid was last year to take the pressure off Cloke and as such with Reid injured Cloke has been ineffective. With Cloke there are a few areas he desperately needs to work on. The major area Cloke needs to grow is his foot skills. His set shot goalkicking issues have been well documented and are a weekly conversation topic but I am personally more concerned by his poor ability to find and hit targets by foot. Whenever Cloke pushes up the field and takes a mark on the wing he has almost always invariably kicked it long down the line or long into the forward 50 to a contest. He just does not see or find enough targets up the field that he can kick to and he needs to improve his vision, decision making and ability to execute by foot to find targets. If he can improve in those aspects I expect Cloke’s set shot goalkicking will slightly improve with it. The other area needing substantial work is his ground level ability. Cloke would have to be the most fumbly key forward in the game when it comes to picking up the ground ball or a bouncing ball in the game. He just lacks those clean hands and lacks that co-ordination not only below the knees but even below the shoulders and if ever he develops that co-ordination and cleanness below the shoulders and below the knees to go with his contested marking ability we could be a goal a game better given how many ground balls Cloke fails to take cleanly.

7. Tim Broomhead: Broomhead has had his injury issues over his first couple of seasons but when he has been on the park he has demonstrated real talent and it was pleasing late season for Broomhead to finally receive his opportunity and really over those final few rounds not only establish himself but really excel and have a significant impact, improving in a hurry. Broomhead has some pace and some evasive ability and his skills, vision and decision making are all excellent. He is also a very capable contested ball winner and has the versatility to play well both through the midfield and up forward. Broomhead already while it is an early call plays to the standard of a clear best 10 player on our list and I expect next season he not only establishes himself as a part of the best 22 but also excels to hold his position throughout the season in a role primarily as a forward who rotates into the midfield and really play some impactful football in 2015.

8. Alan Toovey: Still the ultimate role-player down back an effective shutdown defender who again this season has done what he has always done. What makes Toovey a special shutdown defender is his combination of speed, agility, 1v1 strength, height and reach for his type as well as his discipline to his role and ability to play on forwards of varied sizes and types.

9. Marley Williams: Another strong season by Williams and he has been very impressive given what he went through prior to the start of the season. Williams is so strong 1v1 consistently beating his man and whenever the ball hits the ground he will get there first thanks to his speed reacting but also with his ability to out body his man. Williams also takes on the game well with his pace and has a mean sidestep on him allowing him to get around guys and find extra time and space with ball in hand. With his mix of attributes it will be interesting to see if Williams can down the track take that next step and shift into the midfield or be played more in a rotational forward/midfield role. What makes me see Williams as a possible midfielder down the track is sheer power, ability to win the ground ball, win the contested ball consistently and with his linebreaking ability and ability to sidestep opponents and move in traffic he has the ability to down the track I am intrigued by his chances to take that step into the midfield at some point. We have this year really missed that real physical edge around the contest and Williams could plausibly be that complement for Pendlebury and Beams to give us that or possibly in a rotational midfield/forward role but given the injury to Scharenberg and the retirement of Maxwell, Williams likely again in 2015 will be required to remain in the back half.

10. Tom Langdon: Langdon has had an incredible first season and although late season his form has dropped away he has proven an incredible value choice at pick 65 as someone who looks good enough to remain a part of the best team going forward. He has a well-rounded game but what stands out most is his ability to read it so well down back and take intercept marks. I expect Langdon to continue to build on his strong first season and gradually build that consistency with time and eventually with a few years in the system step into the midfield as a rotational defender/midfielder for some minutes on the ball. I have also been encouraged by what I have heard about Langdon’s willingness to put in the work.

11. Jack Frost: Big improver off the rookie list but faded late season as the pressure on the back half increased. Footskills are poor and require work and he does not look comfortable with ball in hand but I cannot help but slightly favour Frost to Brown long term. Brown is a player who is established and we know exactly who he is and what he is capable of and that has not changed over the years but Frost at the rate at which he is developing I expect will be the better of the two if he is not already. Frost has the right mix of athletic attributes with his pace, agility and leaping ability but then also looks to be developing the strength to go with the stronger key forwards. He has the right temperament to stick to the job and is learning and improving quickly. He can go with guys in the air and at ground level and is also an excellent tackler by position.

 

[Knightmare]

12. Clinton Young: I have enjoyed the play of Young and the dynamic he has added to the senior team this year with his ability to penetrate by foot and hit the long target lace out, generating some meaningful drive. Young early career was an excellent mark overhead and has also typically been an excellent running player, covering a lot of ground in a hurry but has not done either of those things this season as well as he has in the past and they are things I would look for him to get back to doing in addition to penetrating with his long kicks to get back to his best. If healthy again next year Young is in my best team on a wing with his meters gained and the meaningful drive he can create critical to our success.

13. Paul Seedsman: Seedsman missed the first half of the season but since coming back has in large part continued doing what he was doing last season. Seedsman generates meaningful rebound from the back half with his ability to break the lines off half back. While Seedsman can really generate some serious meters gained with that running and tendency to kick long I would like to see him lower his eyes more and find the best target more often which he started to do more late season and needs to continue to do through 2014. In my mind Seedsman is a clear best 22 player and like Young is one of not enough players who can generate meaningful drive on this team.

14. Alex Fasolo: Early season I enjoyed the glimpses Fasolo showed us down back. He gave the back half better balance as a guy who could really generate some meaningful drive with his playmaking ability by foot. He has excellent penetration by foot, vision and decision making ability and is a real go to guy out of the back half who can capably take the kickouts. He has the 1v1 strength to beat most smalls so defensively he should have the ability to beat his man and being able to play back is something I would like to see him add to his arsenal in addition to his already very good ability to play forward. At this stage though Fasolo still looks best suited on a forward flank delivering the footy into the forward 50 with his precision footskills and vision those most damaging traits. He is also exceptionally strong overhead and 1v1 and can hit the scoreboard and has that natural feel for where the goals are so if the back half can be adequately stocked with some better rebounders the front half should be where Fasolo is utilised.

15. Ben Reid: Reid late season came back but was clearly underdone and went out again with injury. Reid as he showed in 2013 is a critical component to our front half and if Cloke wants to get back to playing his best footy needs a healthy Ben Reid playing alongside him.

16. Luke Ball: His output reduced this season and he is not the same dominant on-baller he has been over recent seasons but he is still playing good footy and is still without question a part of our best side in my mind. He is still a strong contested ball winner, excellent tackler and difference maker around the ball. With Ball retired it is a big setback from a veteran leadership standpoint and losing his leadership and professionalism is a significant setback for the group and will hurt our on field performance as well as the development of our youth next season.

17. Nick Maxwell: Maxwell started off the season incredibly strongly and for the first half of the season easily playing his best football since Nathan took as coach. Maxwell was the greatest beneficiary of the increased team defensive focus in that first half of the season with the improved defensive running of our midfield. It was allowing Maxwell greater freedom to play off his man and be more the intercept marking threat he was under Malthouse. It is unfortunate Maxwell retired and the loss of Maxy’s leadership and professionalism I strongly believe as with Ball, losing Maxwell will be a significant setback from a young player development perspective and an on field performance perspective with the leadership and direction he showed on the field all critical aspects to winning.

18.Jarrod Witts: Continuing his progress and looking increasingly comfortable at AFL level now. He has improved his endurance this year and he is covering more ground better and importantly finding more of the footy around the ground and getting more involved in the play which is what you want. His footskills have grown immensely and he can be relied on to hit his targets around the ground now as well as convert his set shots consistency which is pleasing. In close his work by hand is particularly good with his tackling and followup work exceptional. In general play he also presents well at the footy as a marking target. He has also further improved his play forward of centre. Last year Witts was taking some marks on the lead which was good progress but he is now starting to take the occasional pack mark and he is starting to look more like a 1v1 threat up forward which is pleasing and is that continued progress you look for with Witts. In the ruck Witts while his follow-up work is unbelievable with his ball winning ability, ground level ability and tackling as good as you will see of someone at his height, he is still a poor tap ruckman with relatively limited reach and little to no leaping ability so he just needs to become smarter with his approach to the contest and learn some veteran tricks to allow him to be a more effective tap ruckman despite his lack of leap in the way Darren Jolly late career was smart for us in years past. Long term with Witts’ ability to play forward and ruck well I like the Grundy/Witts combination and I feel they can definitely learn to co-exist once Grundy becomes more of a factor forward of centre.

19. Brodie Grundy: It has been a long time since such a young ruckman has looked so capable at AFL level so immediately and Grundy has the opportunity to become one of if not the premier ruckman in the game. There is still a lot to learn and plenty he still needs to add to his game but he is handling himself well to this point and competing well, showing some dominant traits that suggest a big future is ahead of him. What I most like with Grundy is his aggression with his followup work, tackling and his contested ball winning for a ruckman and his rare ability to drag the ball forward with his sheer power which only Naitanui and occasionally T.Nicholls by position can do. He has also shown the ability to kick some long goals from on or just outside 50m looking like a natural long range finisher from general play and also has shown that he is an improving overhead mark taking the occasional strong mark in the air even v contact which is an encouraging sign of progress.Grundy will need to learn to limit his free kicks against and will need to review his game tapes closely to figure out what he can and cannot do. He also needs to become more of a marking and goalkicking threat up forward and continue to improve his tap work but you measure his progress on whether he continues his improvement from season to season rather than game to game and with Grundy’s work ethic I am expecting him to fulfil his potential and become as good as any ruckman in the competition bar Naitanui assuming he goes on and has a healthy career. As a young ruckman my major concern is Grundy’s long term durability having seen Kreuzer, Leuenberger and Naitanui all break down in recent seasons, having all seemingly been thrown in too early, too often at AFL level and having seen Josh Fraser decline so early after similarly being played from the start. It seems the young bodies do not respond well to playing through the ruck at AFL level early career and it seems to hurt the long term futures of all the ruckmen thrown in there too early. Perhaps sharing the ruck duties with Witts helps, maybe Grundy plays more at VFL level and is made to earn his position in the senior side, maybe playing Grundy forward for more minutes helps - some all-time great ruckmen started out as forwards and went on to have among the longest and best careers of the great ruckmen. I do not see Grundy agreeing to have weeks off, he is a competitor and I do not think he would go for that so it will be interesting to see what solution the club come up with. Long term in my mind Grundy and Witts have the talent to become the best ruck combination in the game and I see no reason why they cannot learn to co-exist with both showing that they are improving when played forward of centre, it is just a question for me of when they will both break out and become dominant.

20. Lachlan Keeffe: His form has dropped away this season and he has not looked nearly as settled as he did last season but in the latter portion of this season his performances were better which was encouraging. Last season Keeffe in the 1v1s used his reach to advantage to often when he looked beaten get a fist in from nowhere but this year he has taken some beatings losing his 1v1 contests more frequently than he should and has also been beaten on the lead. His ability to read the flight of the ball in the air has not been great then overhead he has also lacked consistency dropping some sitters you would expect a tall at AFL level to be taking. Where Keeffe has improved not that it was ever an area of weakness but by foot he is looking to create more from the back half and find targets up the field which is something. Important to note with Keeffe, he is not at all capable up forward even we are struggling up front for size it is just wrong to play him forward under any circumstances. Keeffe is slow and slow to react to the ball with his leading patterns poor, ability to read the flight of the ball poor, his overhead marking ability is poor and he has no ability to take marks 1v1 as he lacks that strength to physically hold his own in the contest. As a key defence pillar though I see Keeffe long term holding his position and I anticipate his form next season will be stronger and more like what we have seen from him over the latter portion of this season.

21. Matthew Scharenberg: We only got to see a brief glimpse of Scharenberg at VFL level before he did his ACL which will keep him out for a second straight year. None the less I am very confident Scharenberg can make it back and become a high level piece for us long term and a best 22 player for us right away. He is an excellent reader of the play and a high level intercept mark; he can beat his opponent 1v1 and can provide some meaningful rebound from the back half by foot. He has the performances on the board with both his U18 champs and SANFL form from both 2012 and 2013 strong. I am interested long term to see whether Scharenberg can become a part of the midfield rotation but on his return and for his first few seasons back I am more than happy to see Scharenberg fit into the back half where he has the ability to have a strong impact right away.

22. Heritier Lumumba: Lumumba had that strong 2013 season looking much better on a wing in more a free running role which suits his straight-line running game but his form has dropped away again this season with more game time in the back half, performing to a lower level as he did in 2012. He has not used his explosive running as much this year and having to play more down back with our injury situation has really taken away from his natural strengths being that free running on a wing. If Lumumba returns next year I would without question look to use him up the field exclusively on a wing again where he can free run, accumulate and provide maximum run and carry as he did so well in 2013.

 

[Knightmare]

-- C graders (In the mix) --

23. Nathan Brown: Brown has been a consistent key defender for a number of years and you know what you are going to get from him when he is available for selection. He will lock down his guy and stick to his role but will not find much if any of his own ball. With Brown’s history of serious knee and shoulder injuries with Brown on the team list it is critical to have that third AFL standard key defender as depth to cover Brown in case he does suffer another further serious knee or shoulder injury.

24. Taylor Adams: Adams is a good young midfielder with an excellent inside game. He is an excellent contested ball winner and an excellent inside extractor with his work by hand terrific. His two way running has improved this year which is pleasing. Where Adams struggles and what he does need to improve is his footskills. By foot Adams lacks consistency and it is something he will need to clean up and improve before he establishes himself through the midfield as a fixture in our best team. With a strong preseason I see no reason as to why Adams should not be part of our best team.

25. Ben Kennedy: Kennedy has played some dominant football through the midfield at VFL level but still needs to improve his endurance and find more outside ball before he becomes a regular part of the senior team. His inside work game is excellent for a small and he has good acceleration which I would like to see him use more in game. He would also benefit from increasing his consistency by foot as that also is not yet up to the standard it needs to be. Get a strong preseason into him and I see no reason why he cannot take the next step next season and iron out those deficiencies to become a regular in the senior team.

26. Patrick Karnezis: Karnezis has shown some signs this year in the VFL but will need to continue to build on his form and get a full preseason in before he becomes a part of our best team. He is a nice height, has excellent versatility, can take a mark, hit the scoreboard and find the footy. He will need to improve his endurance as well as his two-way running but otherwise he has definitely some talent and I get the sense there is still plenty of untapped potential and some real scope to develop whether that be forward or as a midfielder.

27. Kyle Martin: Has not received as many opportunities at AFL level this season but his VFL form has been constantly dominant. In 2013 Martin’s AFL form when given the opportunity both during the NAB Cup and Home and Away season was in my view very solid and I cannot help but think with more of a run at AFL level he is good enough to establish himself as a regular. His relative deficiencies are his endurance as well as his ability by foot to consistently hit his intended targets, if he can improve in both aspects of the game then I would not put it past him to become a regular senior AFL footballer likely in a rotational midfield/forward role.

28. Tyson Goldsack: Goldsack over the first half of the season played some strong footy in the front half with his tackling a real highlight. The sheer tackling energy and ferocity he attacks the man with is inspiring and game changing. He has incredible pace at his height and he just comes barrelling down on the guy with ball in hand and chases guys down with intent. He will frighten defenders into mistakes and with that chase down ability he is a real asset to our front half. Where the improvement from Goldsack the forward needs to come is his ability to hit the scoreboard. He kicks less than a goal a game which for a forward is not nearly enough. He also needs to be more of a marking threat in the forward 50 with his marks per game also poor by position. Over the second half of the season he has played more in the back half and as he can in the front half has also shown that he is a capable role player.

29. Nathan Freeman: Due to injury unfortunately we have not seen Freeman play this season other than that brief glimpse during the NAB Cup. Freeman is an incredibly explosive midfielder and can really take on the game with ball in hand. He has not only elite pace but elite repeat speed and excellent endurance allowing him to give many high speed bursts with ball in hand a game and he is not just a guy who can run on the track he can use that pace on the field which is what makes him good. He is an efficient user of the footy and a good finisher and if he gets off the leash he has the ability to take over games so that is something to look out for down the track. Freeman definitely is an inside player and has excellent size on his frame already but I would like to see him continue to improve on that and become a more dominant inside ball winner over future seasons. I anticipate Freeman will get games from next season and likely towards the latter portion of next season with injuries to other key players find his way in for more regular senior games.

-- D graders (Able to play at AFL level if required)--

30. Brent Macaffer: Early season Macaffer did a terrific job as a tagger locking down some of the best players in the competition. The most notable being his performance was against Cotchin which was so good it resulted in umpires changing their interpretation of the rules and the parameters with which taggers can play which is always a sign that you are doing something right. He has got the right height, size, endurance, work ethic and temperament to effectively continue to play this role.Over the second half of the season through we have seen Macaffer get badly exposed at centre bounces with Macaffer a poor clearance player and as a poor contested ball winner he is not helping us out on the ball and at centre bounces and instead he should take the oppositions best midfielder around the ground and let someone more effective at those centre bounces start in there instead of Macaffer – say Swan or Sidebottom in his place.

31. Ben Hudson: Hudson had an incredibly impressive season at VFL level playing strong footy every week. As injury depth he provided ideal coverage for Witts and Grundy as a veteran who could help mentor and coach both and focus on his own game second. Hudson is the type of recruiting decision I would like in the future to see replicated, and it does not necessarily need to be a ruckman either.

32. Josh Thomas: Thomas this year has continued his strong play through the midfield as someone who provides excellent depth by position. He still needs to clean up his footskills and will also need to continue to improve as a forward to become a part of our best team. Thomas is one of a growing group of surplus small midfielders who are below average by foot and he will need to continue to improve and elevate his game make the necessary changes to stand out among that group and remain long term.

33. Sam Dwyer: Capable at AFL level and capable depth. Dwyer has a neat sidestep on him and just steps around guys and creates space so easily for himself. He finds space well and can find the footy both on the outside and up forward and is a very good accumulator and with ball in hand can show some class at times even if his footskills at times lack some consistency. What keeps him out of my best side though is the defensive side to his game. Dwyer will need a strong 2015 to remain on our list with some younger better rounded list talent looking more likely to secure positions in the best 22.

 

[Knightmare]

34. Tony Armstrong: Had a relatively poor season until those final couple of months where to his credit he really lifted and played some improved footy. The highlight of his season was without question his playing two games in the one round, both performing strongly at VFL level then making no excuses and stepping in last minute at AFL level to play and performing to a solid standard. At AFL level Armstrong has demonstrated his efficient kicking. Given the injury to Scharenberg next year and Maxwell’s retirement as depth for next year at least he is a required player but I do not see Armstrong as a long term player for our club and I anticipate he will be on the chopping block next offseason. While an efficient kick he is a short, safe kick who does not generate meaningful drive. I feel Armstrong’s best position if he is to become a long term player would be a forward flank where he could better utilise his efficient kicking and composure with ball in hand to find forward 50 targets and I am interested to see if he could make that transition as a role in my view that fits his skillset.

35. Jarryd Blair: Blair has been a handy player for some time but has remained the much same player since 2010 experiencing mild improvements at best since. On the ball Blair plays with a real intensity winning some of his own ball, distributing by hand and bringing a strong tackling game. He is just not someone I would be giving senior games to unless absolutely required. He is fine when playing in the seniors and does not look at all out of place but Blair struggles to find the outside footy and is a low damage guy as a small with only average pace and slightly below average footskills with limited penetration and some inconsistency by foot at times. As a forward I find Blair while he can play the position, provide some tackling pressure and crumb to an acceptable standard he struggles to hit the scoreboard and lacks front half talent or any meaningful x-factor. Then through the midfield while he can win some of his own ball and again his tackling game is solid he is not a dominant inside player and has a below average outside game both as an accumulator and as a ball user and runner so long term I do not see a position for Blair in our best team and I would be inclined to have him on the trade table as someone I see only as depth through the midfield or up forward.

36. Jesse White: White as he has throughout his career has this year again shown glimpses but ultimately his play as has been the case throughout his career is not up to an AFL standard as someone I would prefer not to have to play at AFL level. The primary issue and why I question what White brings to this team is he does not take any pressure off Cloke as Reid did so well last year because of his poor marking ability and poor ability to hit the scoreboard which has without question played a big part in Cloke’s shortcomings this year. White is not a contested marking threat up forward and he has at times shown that even easy uncontested marks he drops which is troubling for someone who has been in the system for as long as White has. Then you add his poor scoreboard impact and poor tackling ability for someone so athletic into the equation and he is a player who should not be playing senior footy. What stands out with White as a positive is the sheer athleticism. He is incredibly quick and agile and moves incredibly well and has excellent ground level ability for a tall with his ability to cleanly pick it up off the deck. His best role with our team likely is as a relief ruckman, but for White to achieve the greatest possible success with our team in this role he needs to play alongside both Cloke and Reid as the two marking forwards if he is to have a more regular impact as more a ground level player himself. One move I would strongly consider next season if our ruck and forward situation is secure is to move White into a key defence post. For me his mix of attributes are better suited to playing in the back half and given his athleticism and good size it is not out of the question that he could play his best and most consistent footy in the back half. From a long term perspective I see a shift to the back half as his best opportunity if he wants to be a long term player and remain at the club beyond next season as someone I view as being in danger of losing his list position if we can find a better alternative.

37. Jonathon Marsh: He has been a major improver this season and has gone from a once inconsistent tall forward who can break open games occasionally with his extreme pace and ability to take on the game to a shutdown key defender who has found some real consistency and seems to have found a role he can perform well in the back half. Marsh down back has the discipline to stick to his role and has the right competitiveness and physical profile to go with opposition key forwards. He is well built for a young key position player but what gives Marsh the chance of developing into a high level stopper not unlike Jack Frost is his athleticism with his rare speed and repeat speed. The major weakness for Marsh is and likely remains his footskills which require substantial work to get up to an even adequate standard but if he starts to build some consistency into his kick that that should suffice. Another element I hope he adds to his game down back, and it is unclear he does but it would be terrific if he took on the game more from the back half with his pace. It is something he routinely did forward of centre and up the field in the past so it is a surprising down back he has not unleashed his pace more frequently. I put his current lack of run down to his focus on stopping his direct opponent, and it may a bit like with Lumumba be a case of he will struggle to implement both concurrently and be either a running weapon or stopper at any given time but that is still to be determined. Overall I am very encouraged by Marsh’s progress. Throughout the home and away season, he has been in my view been our biggest improver from where he was at, at the beginning of the season and I expect his sharp improvement to continue through 2015. I hope to see him continue developing down back, but there is that bit of curiosity as to whether he could again later on when he establishes himself and has developed that confidence in his ability to swing forward with our key defence stocks particularly from a negating standpoint particularly deep and also because he has shown at lower levels that he can really take over games with his influence up forward as he showed in 2013 in the u18 champs. It will be continued interesting viewing with Marsh whatever our plans are for him whether that be back or forward.

38. Quinten Lynch: Lynch this year has performed to a reasonable standard at VFL level with his leadership the aspect I have most enjoyed about his play this season. He is an excellent accumulator of the footy for a key forward, has elite endurance for someone at his position and he is a strong mark overhead and can compete reasonably well through the ruck. The main issue has been Lynch’s wayward kicking and his struggles converting in front of goal which have kept him out of the senior side. Lynch now has since retired with his leadership but like with Maxwell and Ball his leadership and experience will be very much missed.

39. Jackson Ramsay: Ramsay has shown some solid improvement since joining the club and has been noted for his work ethic and hunger to improve which is really pleasing. He is best suited down back or on a wing. His strengths are his pace, endurance and ability to accumulate the footy. This year Ramsay’s improvement has come deep in defence where he has shown that he has the right temperament and discipline to stick to his role and perform it to the expected standard so it is pleasing that he has added that to his wheelhouse and has developed the 1v1 ability to go with it.Long term I have best 22 concerns for Ramsay with his footskills not damaging and at times inconsistent but as depth he looks good enough to come into the senior team and play a role.

40. Adam Oxley: Has missed most of the season with injury but next season will be welcome back with his footskills and class a welcome addition to our back half. Oxley is capable depth but he will need to continue his strong improvement and play regular senior AFL games to remain with the club beyond 2015.

41. Ben Sinclair: Like Oxley, Sinclair has missed most of the season. In the back half Sinclair can play to an acceptable standard as a capable stopper who can also take on the game at times with his pace. In the back half the most significant issue with Sinclair is his poor footskills and inconsistent ability to hit his targets, particularly when moving at full speed from the back half which is something he needs to work on if he wants to become a best 22 player. Sinclair in the past has also played as a forward and while he is a good pressure forward he lacks the ability to hit the scoreboard or take enough marks in the forward 50 frequently enough to be more than a depth player. 2015 for me with Sinclair is a make or break year as someone I view as suitable depth player but someone I would prefer not to have to play in the seniors.

42. Caolan Mooney: Mooney is an incredible athlete with his elite pace and some leaping ability. He played his first couple of seasons up forward and provided some excellent tackling pressure, a reasonable marking target and has with time become slightly more confident taking on the game with his pace though still with ball in hand he is still too tentative taking on the game and as a result gets caught with the ball more than someone as fast as Mooney should. The issue with Mooney the forward is he does not have front half talent and the natural intuitive ability to play the position. He is not a volume goalkicker and not someone who feels like he will kick a bag of goals as the better forwards can. In the first half of the season Mooney played in the back half which I felt was a good move for his career and in theory I felt was his best chance to make the grade but he failed to make the adjustment finishing the season again in the front half.

43. Corey Gault: Gault has had a tough run with injury to this point in his career. I have not at all liked what I have seen from Gault as a backman where he has in 2013 was consistently getting embarrassed 1v1, looking completely out of place. In a relief ruck/forward role though I like what I have seen from Gault. In the ruck he competes well and in the front half he is a strong marking threat in the air with his ability to take his marks at the highest point. Gault v Hawthorn in the final round on debut showed some promising glimpses which was pleasing and from next season if required I would have no issue with Gault receiving senior AFL games as someone who as depth has the ability to compliment Witts or Grundy and provide reasonable enough depth either forward or through the ruck. I have enjoyed what I have heard about Gault’s willingness to learn and put in the work on the track and I look forward to seeing him what he can do with a full preseason and a healthy run with injury. It will just be a challenge to become a best 22 player as someone who can play a role but likely will struggle to displace anyone from a best 22 standpoint long term with some higher level talents on the list so he will be under pressure to elevate his game in 2015.

--E graders (Not playing to a standard where you would want them playing at AFL level even as depth)--

44. Peter Yagmoor: Yagmoor took a step forward last year going from someone who struggled with the pace at VFL level to someone who looked more comfortable at that level but has failed to continue his progress this year and has as a result since been delisted as someone who does not appear to have the scope to develop into an AFL quality talent.

45. Marty Clarke: Clarke’s play this year has been inconsistent at best and his play has really dropped away with each season since coming back to the club. His footskills are nowhere near what they were in his first stint at the club and he is no longer that same penetrating playmaker by foot he once was. As a rebounder he does not find a whole lot of the footy anymore then his ability to stop his direct opponent even at VFL level is below average. I would have liked to have seen Clarke play more up the field, mostly on a wing and occasionally on a forward flank and just allow him to free run and utilise his endurance and see what happens. Clarke has since been delisted which was definitely the right call given not only his play being below the required standard but also due to his advanced age as someone who was not anywhere close to being a best 22 player.

 

[Knightmare]

Nathan Buckley and all coaches and high performance staff:

The good:

Development of youth - Nathan and the coaching staff have in large part continued doing what they have been doing. They have done a terrific job developing our new youth coming in and helping fast-track their development. Particularly impressive has been our ability to develop the 1v1 ability of everyone we play through the back half. Next step with that young group is to develop our youth into high level difference makers who can help elevate our squad to that next level.

The bad:

Injury – This season we have had an abnormally high frequency of injuries with a concerning numbers of those soft tissue injuries this season. The unusually high frequency of injuries has been on ongoing theme for a number of years now but has been even more greatly exaggerated this season. We also seem to have brought back our guys too early from injury with those injured players experiencing re-occurring and continued problems on return which is another issue that will need to be resolved next season.

Premature decline and lack of longevity of veterans - Dane Swan and Luke Ball are this year’s victims of father time with Lumumba’s form nothing like what he produced last year and you go through the years with Maxwell having dropped away and declined every year since 2009. Didak since 2010 struggled and does not look like the same player, Dale Thomas since 2011 struggling and Krakouer declining earlier than expected given his time out of the system. It is a constant and troubling theme that continually pops up and will need to change in a hurry with Cloke, Pendlebury and the remaining pieces from that once young core group from that 2010 premiership year all coming towards the age of 30 where we start seeing that sharp decline impact on the performance of our players. It has long been an issue and it was an issue before Nathan took over as head coach. We saw similar with Fraser, Lockyer, O’Bree and Medhurst who all in 2010 struggled to perform to their previous high standards, making way for the youth that year and Paul Licuria before them and given how longstanding the issue has been it is something that needs addressing.

Lack of improvement from mid-career guys - While the development of our youth has been consistently impressive and again this year, the development of those who have been on our list for several years has been poor and has remained poor during Nathan Buckley’s tenure as senior coach. It has been a case of diminishing returns where in those first few seasons in our system our playing group developed at a phenomenal rate then after four or five years in our system there is a halt in the development of almost all our players and we cannot get a thing more out of many players after that point which has been disappointing. You can go through all those senior players who have been in the system for a few years and identifying improvers is not easy after those initial years where they go about establishing themselves. As an example, of that group that were part of that 2010 premiership only Dayne Beams has clearly improved with that improvement coming in 2012 when he won the club Best and Fairest after moving to a midfield role. The rest of the list otherwise have either remained much the same level performers or have declined since.

Player selection choices – A number of younger players and recent high draft selections despite performing strongly in the 2s have lacked regular senior AFL opportunity this year when their performances have been arguably stronger than many of the mid-career regular senior AFL players. There seems in my view to be too great a weighting on those players who can perform a role over the younger players who have higher ceilings, greater talent and greater ability to influence games in more ways today.

Inability to develop the footskills of our existing players – Beams as an example has always had a nice smooth kicking action and can finish around goal but would someone teach him to lower his eyes and find some targets around the ground? Similar story but to an even more extreme extent with Cloke who after any mark up the field does not have the vision to find a target, almost always electing to kick long down the line or into the forward 50 to a contest. We have been to a small extent been able to iron out the kicking of those embarrassingly poor kicks in Toovey when he first joined the club, Ben Sinclair, Josh Thomas, Marley Williams and more recently Jack Frost with Jonathon Marsh the most significant and current work in progress who likely follows the others and irons out his footskills to some extent, but we have outside of those terribly deficient kicks been largely unable to help anyone else make any notable improvement in what they do by foot. We have not seen our established players add penetration, improve their vision, decision making ability, decision making ability under pressure or ability to hit targets over distance and that is another area that needs to be focused on and team wide needs to be developed in a big way with footskills team-wide the most significant deficiency with too few able to create meaningful drive or do damage by foot. Additionally we have seen a drop off in penetration for a number of players. Cloke as an example early career could kick goals from 60m but now his range seems to be 50m, Ben Reid is a similar story where in 2011 he was delivering long, low bullets 60m to targets up the field but like Cloke he seems to have lost that penetration. Quinten Lynch is another who has lost that 65m kick from his early days and hardly seems able to kick it 45m now.

My recommendation: From a health, longevity and performance standpoint of those mid-career and veteran players the best thing that can possibly be done is implement an injury prevention system mirroring that of NBA team Phoenix Suns. Everything they do from training, to recovery to injury prevention is industry leading and their results in helping injury prone players and veterans in their mid to late 30s achieve career best form and remain healthy and play more games over the length of long, gruelling seasons and maintain their form deep into their careers is without equal in international sports from my findings. I am not a science geek to understand how they do it but the statistical correlations when looking at those who have played for their team since 2005 and looking at how their players performed prior to joining Phoenix and comparing that to how they performed there both from a production and availability standpoint is clear. From a Collingwood standpoint if these practices can be implemented and mimicked it would help in keep veterans performing to a best 22 level significantly deeper into their careers which creates the benefits of veteran experience remaining at the club longer and replacements will not needing to be found as frequently with guys plausibly remaining productive and healthy into their mid-30s. It will also from a free agency standpoint help make Collingwood a more appealing destination club as a team where current veterans will want to remain at the club and veterans on other club lists will want to join the club. All up these benefits will significantly impact on winning with the most critical aspects to winning coming from having the best players but also the best group of healthy players which would again put us in a position where we can again be a part of the premiership conversation.

The second recommendation is for a harder training program to be implemented which would include a harder preseason and a harder training program during the home and away season. As a club we are not the biggest, not the quickest, not the fittest or the most skilled and they are all elements that need to change before the club is spoken about as being premiership relevant again.

At the selection table I would also advise the club given the heavy turnover of veterans to inject regular senior AFL games into the talented youth at the club and play them ahead of many of the less talented mid-career types.

Grade: C



The list management and recruiting team (based on 2013 outcomes)

Another year, another strong draft day performance. Through the draft we have hardly had the chance to see Scharenberg and Freeman due to injury but they have both got the scope to develop and are strong list fits down the track. Scharenberg I expect to develop into one of the very best from this draft class given his strong 2012 and 2014 seasons and Freeman with his explosive pace, footskills and strong body has the scope to develop into a damaging midfielder which is something we need more of. The picks that can be judged to some extent now are the selections of Tom Langdon and Jonathon Marsh and both have proven to be exceedingly strong selections given where they both were picked. The selection of Tom Langdon has based off a one year sample size been a strong success given where he was taken and the strength of his senior performances, particularly in the first half of the season. Then Jonathon Marsh while he had his early struggles in the front half has over the second half of the season shown strong development since moving into the back half as a key defender. He has strong scope to develop and given where he was taken he looks at this stage like another strong choice and a strong value selection with a chance in his own right of making the grade which is incredibly exciting given how late in the draft he was taken.

Letting Dale Thomas go was in my view the right decision given his poor 2012 and 2013 seasons where he seemed to lack his once difference making tackling energy around the contest that just about defined the way we as a club used to play. Getting Karnezis in exchange for Paine was another sound move with Karnezis of the two the relevantly more likely to make the grade and be of AFL relevance.Taylor Adams in exchange for Shaw in the short term hurts and particularly this year with the backline carnage, Shaw I imagine would have helped us to make the finals this year but long term Adams has the opportunity to be of greater value to our team. Adding Jesse White while he has played regularly this season I consider a poor recruiting choice. The issue with White is he does not give the team what it needs with Cloke requiring a stronger marking forward who can draw the ball in their own right and provide greater scoreboard impact. White will look less bad next year with a healthy Reid as that number two marking option in the front half but even then I am sceptical that White will give us enough as a still low level contributor who on a good team should not be anything more than depth. Tony Armstrong as a delisted free agent while he late season really picked things up and showed improvement is another who on a good team should not be more than depth and is not going to help us long term. He is an efficient ball user but like White he is not helping to improve our best 22 as another low level depth performer.

What the list management and recruiting team consistently do well is identify list needs and roles that require filling and find appropriate solutions and recognises the right talents with the right character to improve and to fill those needs. At the moment we have got a deep list where just about anyone could play in the seniors if required but the strength of the best 22 and the top end is lacking.

My issue with the current recruiting strategy and the premature declines of our veteran list talent and the expansion clubs have not helped with their dominance of those early draft selections over recent seasons but my issue with our current recruiting strategy is the over-valuing of depth and not enough focus on improving the best 22 and stocking it with the absolute maximum quality talent. There has been over recent years been lots of talk from the club about adding depth to cover injuries with a view that a strong best 30 is needed and also strong depth to help make the VFL team competitive to put pressure on those best 22 players but in my view while I am not going to go as far as to say these things are unimportant, that would be incorrect but I would class these as objectives that we have put far too much weight into and instead we should be putting a greater weighting on the constant improvement of our best 22, which is what is needed to take that next step and get back into contention. As a club we are consistently strong performers through the draft and as such I would draft, trade and use free agency almost exclusively for players we see as either best 22 players today or players who with time will without question develop into best 22 players and follow this concept as closely as can practically be done. By doing this I expect we will assuming we have a relatively clean run of injuries (which is needed anyway to win premierships) to still have more than enough depth at AFL level.

Where the relative weakness of our recruiting team lies is in evaluating opposition list talent with our conversion from particularly those bottom of list types from opposition teams particularly poor which along with our substantial depth is why I would recommend staying away from these types, with depth players at a different club generally remaining depth quality players. Given this I feel we should now shift our focus in on the draft with the occasional trade or free agency pickup if they are clear best 22 players and can help fill a list need and give our team a dynamic that is needed to improve our best 22. At the moment through trade week and free agency in the most part it feels like we are continually adding depth players with many of the players we have targeted, guys who have been in the system long enough where it is pretty clear as to exactly who they are, hoping on a new team list that they will suddenly elevate their games and become best 22 players which I would class as the wrong approach, even with correct identification of needs you are rarely going to get a different result from the same player on a different team. What we need to start doing during trade week is going after only players we identify as being instant and clear best 22 players to minimise the risk of error and it is clear that this process works with Jolly, Ball and Tarrant as established players at their previous clubs clearly the best players we have collected in recent times. At times being slightly more adventurous than this is possible and this concept does not need to be so iron clad, with my targets this year being Jeff Garlett, Martin Gleeson and Mitch Clark or Jon Giles who all are guys who have not played regular senior AFL games this season, but in my mind they are all clear best 22 players who fill clearly defined list needs which is why I see them all as strong choices as recruits if they can be had.

Grade: B+

 

[Knightmare]

A look into the future:


Untouchables 1: Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Brodie Grundy.
Why: These guys are in my view our franchise pieces who I would never put on the table to be involved in a trade as players the club would never get the appropriate value for back in a trade.



Untouchables 2: Dayne Beams, Ben Reid, Steele Sidebottom, Jarrod Witts, Matthew Scharenberg, Jamie Elliott, Tim Broomhead, Dane Swan.
Why: They are all critical pieces and not worth trading unless Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton or Thomas Boyd for some combination of these guys are on the table.


Tradeables 1: Tom Langdon, Alex Fasolo, Alan Toovey, Marley Williams, Jack Frost, Lachlan Keeffe, Nathan Brown, Paul Seedsman, Clinton Young, Nathan Freeman, Taylor Adams, Ben Kennedy, Jonathon Marsh, Patrick Karnezis, Kyle Martin.
Why: Not on the trade table unless we can achieve a winning trade whether that be acquiring a higher level footballer or getting a pick worth more than what we consider the player to be worth.



Tradeables 2: Heritier Lumumba, Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer, Josh Thomas, Jarryd Blair, Sam Dwyer.
Why: Available for the right deal.



Tradeables 3: Corey Gault,Jesse White, Jackson Ramsay, Adam Oxley, Ben Sinclair, Tony Armstrong.
Why: Available for as little as a small pick upgrade as guys I do not see as being long term players.



Projecting ahead to 2018 best 22 (excluding those born in 1986 or earlier – based on who we have):
B: Alan Toovey Jack Frost Marley Williams
HB: Matthew Scharenberg Lachlan Keeffe Tom Langdon
CEN: Steele Sidebottom Scott Pendlebury Paul Seedsman
HF: Alex Fasolo Travis Cloke Tim Broomhead
F: Darcy Moore Ben Reid Jamie Elliott
FOLL: Brodie Grundy Dayne Beams Nathan Freeman BENCH: Jarrod Witts Taylor Adams Ben Kennedy Patrick Karnezis
Firmly in the mix: Jonathon Marsh Nathan Brown
Assumed delistings: Brent Macaffer Tyson Goldsack Kyle Martin Corey Gault Josh Thomas Jarryd Blair Jackson Ramsay Adam Oxley Jesse White Tony Armstrong Ben Sinclair Caolan Mooney Peter Yagmoor Marty Clarke
Assumed retirements: Quinten Lynch Ben Hudson Nick Maxwell Dane Swan Luke Ball Clinton Young Heritier Lumumba Sam Dwyer

 

[Knightmare]

*Mods please note:

More content will be added over coming months and edited into my existing posts so this thread will be exceptionally large by seasons end!

Please do not delete any posts!

I just wanted to get this up and posted by the bye so that some conversation about the best 22/draft/free agent and trade possibilities among other things related to Collingwood could begin being discussed and looked at in depth.

 

[Apex36]

Trying to get my head around you listing Kyle Martin as a C grader (arguably best 22) but at the same time wanting him delisted at seasons end?

 

[TradeDraft]

I thought you Rated Moore higher then Goddard?

 

[Knightmare]

Trying to get my head around you listing Kyle Martin as a C grader (arguably best 22) but at the same time wanting him delisted at seasons end?

I like Martin's game. The club don't seem to.

That's the short explanation.

He's not an elite runner, he's not an elite kick or an elite player defensively which is why he's generally seems not to be favoured.

I like him though. Big time accumulator as a forward or midfielder. Strong mark up forward for his size. Has a nice tackling game. And he is as a forward a goal scoring threat. I'm not even concerned by his lack of running because of the ease with which he finds the footy.

But with the way the game is going with the limited interchanges and with guys needing to cover more ground over 120 minutes of play he from what I can tell by his constant non-selection despite his strong numbers fit into the clubs plans going forward.

 

[Knightmare]

I thought you Rated Moore higher then Goddard?

I do favour Moore slightly to Goddard yes.

Goddard isn't necessary someone I'm keen to target, I listed him as an option because he's among those top end options available in this draft who could be worth looking at.

If I was to make a play for a key forward the GWS big three are the guys I'd target with Wright probably that other option I'd strongly look at.

But with the lack of assets we have available to move (by assets I'm talking high end draft picks and players who would attract this type of high end forward) it's hardly likely we're a chance this year to get any of them.

 

[Apex36]

I like Martin's game. The club don't seem to.

That's the short explanation.

He's not an elite runner, he's not an elite kick or an elite player defensively which is why he's generally seems not to be favoured.

I like him though. Big time accumulator as a forward or midfielder. Strong mark up forward for his size. Has a nice tackling game. And he is as a forward a goal scoring threat. I'm not even concerned by his lack of running because of the ease with which he finds the footy.

But with the way the game is going with the limited interchanges and with guys needing to cover more ground over 120 minutes of play he from what I can tell by his constant non-selection despite his strong numbers fit into the clubs plans going forward.

I suppose you could say that, but at the same time, we can't play him at the moment even if Bucks wanted to since he's a rookie. I'll be pretty upset if they let him go, I really rate him.

 

[Shaneprice97]

Gotta love Knightmares yearly Almanac

 

[Knightmare]

I suppose you could say that, but at the same time, we can't play him at the moment even if Bucks wanted to since he's a rookie. I'll be pretty upset if they let him go, I really rate him.

As a fwd/mid I could see him pretty easily fitting into a role similar to what Beams played back in 2010 as a forward flanker or in the role Swan is playing now as a deep forward who can rotate into the midfield for periods. And personally my preference also at this stage is to retain him.

In saying that though we've got such a deep midfield rotation and a group of young forwards coming through (Broomhead/Fasolo) with some more class to them I expect probably pass him by.

Martin is 24 this year and when in that age group if you're not best 22 or that first picked depth guy the trend with Collingwood seems to be that you're not hanging around to make up the numbers going by the 10 or so we seem to move on most years.

With Martin I'm pretty open minded and I'm hoping he really puts it all together this season because he's got the ability to make some noise.

 

[TradeDraft]

I do favour Moore slightly to Goddard yes.

Goddard isn't necessary someone I'm keen to target, I listed him as an option because he's among those top end options available in this draft who could be worth looking at.

If I was to make a play for a key forward the GWS big three are the guys I'd target with Wright probably that other option I'd strongly look at.

But with the lack of assets we have available to move (by assets I'm talking high end draft picks and players who would attract this type of high end forward) it's hardly likely we're a chance this year to get any of them.

Well Wright is Number 1 Prospect unless we have a top 5 Pick I can't see us moving up that Far and I doubt Giants would trade Patton or Boyd Yet

 

[MagpieBat]

Trying to get my head around you listing Kyle Martin as a C grader (arguably best 22) but at the same time wanting him delisted at seasons end?

I'm still trying to get my head around listing Lynch at CHB in the VFL team...

 

[MagpieBat]

I should add, though, great work Knighta!

 

[soreplums]

Accumulators are important, particularly those who take uncontested marks. It means that they work hard into space and we maintain possession of the ball. Their skills don't always have to be damaging, but they do need to make sure that we keep possession of the ball after their disposal.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm still trying to get my head around listing Lynch at CHB in the VFL team...

It's unusual and it will come up in the bios later on when I give a little more rational but I'm glad you asked because it was very much intended.

CHB is obviously not his position but I'd be playing Gault forward with the front half where he's shown the most promise.

On Lynch I'd like to see him moved back. Physically and aerobically he can easy go with anyone at VFL level, he's a strong mark, reads it well in the air and is a volume accumulator so I don't see him having much trouble making the transition being the profession he is. By foot his field kicking has been fine with his issue by foot primarily with his conversion in front of goal so I speculate that the back half may well be where we get the best value out of him.

Up forward Lynch isn't a best 22 threat as evidenced by him not playing despite Reid's absence but down back if Brown and Keeffe continue to play below average footy Lynch may even present an unexpected alternative and put some unexpected pressure on the pair of them to perform and earn their positions in the senior side.

 

[Bard]

My 2013 best 22s.

Got a bit confused by that starting line..

Anyway, I presume your 'grade' ratings of players will change as the year progresses? Always love your work so curious to see how this pans out.

 

[Knightmare]

Accumulators are important, particularly those who take uncontested marks. It means that they work hard into space and we maintain possession of the ball. Their skills don't always have to be damaging, but they do need to make sure that we keep possession of the ball after their disposal.

I'm assuming the topic here is still Martin.

On Martin he's just a really smart runner. Similar to Paul Chapman he doesn't need to move a whole lot for the ball to just find him which is a large part of why Martin is such a high volume ball getter.

In front of goal Martin is relatively good but to targets up the field anyway he's not as reliable as you'd like which is in this context where he can at times get unstuck.

But he's sure as anything proven he can accumulate even at AFL level in bunches which makes him an interesting discussion point.

Got a bit confused by that starting line..

Anyway, I presume your 'grade' ratings of players will change as the year progresses? Always love your work so curious to see how this pans out.

That kind of thing happens when I in large part take the template from my 2013 almanac.

The grade ratings will be floating and with form fluctuations and actually getting to see guys play (so many injuries down back to start the season along with Reid) will help in building clarity as to exactly where everyone on the list sits. For now though in large part I'm reasonably happy with my best 22 and roughly where most sit but you can always bet there will be movement as we learn more over the season.