Could we do a Bradbury? - Ladder Prediction Talk

[Bazzar]

Freo108.644
Saints116.940
Carlton105.140
Tigers112.036

I failed math, anyone know what this is in terms of goals?

 

[Tigerman20]

I failed math, anyone know what this is in terms of goals?

I did the ladder predictor and I think we'd have to win 2 of the games by 30 pts and 1 by 60pts to make it up. I think we have to count on wins against the saints not %

 

[Groupie_]

Finals aspirations: So good so far.

Geelong def St Kilda = CHECK
Essendon def Carlton = ?
Richmond def Fremantle = ?
Richmond def Essendon = ?
North Melbourne def Fremantle = ?
Collingwood def Essendon = ?
Carlton def St. Kilda = ?
Richmond def Port Adelaide = ?

1 Down, 7 To Go.

I'd give us a 0.1% chance of making the finals this year.

"So you're telling me theres a chance"

 

[Frank Grimes]

I did the ladder predictor and I think we'd have to win 2 of the games by 30 pts and 1 by 60pts to make it up. I think we have to count on wins against the saints not %

Are you sure about that? Before the game tonight the Saints were on 120% but fell 4% from a 41 defeat. Going by that logic I would have thought we need to approx 50 points to make up the difference. Though the Saints play GWS next week so it's a moot point anyway.

 

[UpTheGuts]

Have you guys been doing this to yourselves for the last 12 years?

Not as if we're indifferent

 

[Madtiger2006]

Hope the bombers win today but it's not over if Carlton win but they'll have to lose to st Kilda though. Let's just win tonight tigers. There's no rain to help Fremantle this time

 

[_RT_]

Hope the bombers win today but it's not over if Carlton win but they'll have to lose to st Kilda though. Let's just win tonight tigers. There's no rain to help Fremantle this time

Saints beat Carlton and they pass us on %.

 

[tigerdan]

It's kinda weird how many people dont know how % works. You can't just say "win by 30 points" as a 30 to 60 point win gives you more % than (say) a 90 to 120 point win even though the margin is the same. In short, the key thing for us will be to keep the opposition to as low a score as possible rather than kick a huge score in a shoot out.

 

[Madtiger2006]

Saints beat Carlton and they pass us on %.

Depends on what we win by in our games.

 

[Truetiger]

Hope the bombers win today but it's not over if Carlton win but they'll have to lose to st Kilda though. Let's just win tonight tigers. There's no rain to help Fremantle this time

Hope the bombers win today but it's not over if Carlton win but they'll have to lose to st Kilda though. Let's just win tonight tigers. There's no rain to help Fremantle this time

By that carl have to lose to stk would put stk in 8th as they will win next week

 

[Truetiger]

Stk will smash gws. So margins forget

 

[Madtiger2006]

By that carl have to lose to stk would put stk in 8th as they will win next week

Yeah but we can still pass them. We have to win our last 3 games of course. If we won tonight and next week by 4 or 5 goals and smashed Port by about 80 we can still pass Saints even if they beat GWS by 10 goals and Blues by 3 or 4 goals. Our for/against is about 200+ and Saints is about 300+ but they have bigger for/against scores than us so we have to outdo their wins by about 70 points or so. Would be easier if Essendon win today though cos they have to play Collingwood last

 

[Poor Form]

I'm seeing an alignment in the planets, we will go into the last game needing to win by 106 points after the siren 100 points up jack will line up to kick it from 50 he will kick and gravity will pull it to hit the post. The universe hates us it will happen!

 

[Groupie_]

Let's win both Freo and Bums and then Port will tank for us.

 

[TigerFaithful]

Need the Bombers to get up today.

 

[Cotcho]

Finals aspirations: So good so far.

Geelong def St Kilda = CHECK
Essendon def Carlton = ?
Richmond def Fremantle = ?
Richmond def Essendon = ?
North Melbourne def Fremantle = ?
Collingwood def Essendon = ?
Carlton def St. Kilda = ?
Richmond def Port Adelaide = ?

1 Down, 7 To Go.

Great post!! haha Nothing more satisfying than checking things off a list!!


For the people confused about %age. (Points For divided by Points Against) x 100. Because the saints have a high points for and a relatively low points against they have a good %age. If they get smashed %age down, if it is an even game but a high scoring match %age will go down, if its a low scoring match but even game %age will stay the same, if Saints smash opposition %age will go up. Basically we want opposition to score highly against them and it wont matter if they win or lose or the margin at the end of the day is 1 goal or 5 goals. If GWS score 100 against them next week for example, the saints will have to win by 3 goals just to keep %age the same....F*ck i think iv made things more confusing!! Goal difference will not allow you to work out %age so just go for the teams who play the saints!!! haha

 

[Madtiger2006]

What does the ladder predictor assume the winning and losing teams scores are? Does a 30 point win mean 100-70 scoreline?

 

[peejay]

I'm seeing an alignment in the planets, we will go into the last game needing to win by 106 points after the siren 100 points up jack will line up to kick it from 50 he will kick and gravity will pull it to hit the post. The universe hates us it will happen!

Jack make the distance from 50?

How strong is that wind ?????

 

[Madtiger2006]

Assuming these results, we still get in with 2 more Stkilda wins

Rich 100 d Freo 70
Rich 120 d Ess 70
Rich 150 d Port 50

120.4%

St kil 130 d Gws 50
St kil 100 d Carl 90

120.4%

 

[_RT_]

Depends on what we win by in our games.

Assuming we win our next 2 games by 5 goals we would then need to beat the Power by 100. The problem with that is that is it relies on the Saints only beating GWS by 10 goals(unlikely) and Carlton by 1 point.

Safest way for us is a Bombers win today and us winning as well. That sets up next week as another elimination final, win that and have the Roos beat Freo and it all comes down to the last weekend.

 

[Groupie_]

Assuming these results, we still get in with 2 more Stkilda wins

Rich 100 d Freo 70
Rich 120 d Ess 70
Rich 150 d Port 50

120.4%

St kil 130 d Gws 50
St kil 100 d Carl 90

120.4%

Stop wasting your time lol

 

[ShaneDoan]

I think if we win all 3 of our remaining games, our fate will come down to Freo v Kangas in round 22 in Melbourne. If Freo don't get up against North then we are in the 8, but if Freo win we're doomed.

We'll have one more win than the Saints and be above Freo, Essendon and Carlton by %age.

Wouldn't that be sweet?

ALSO then I'd get to go to the WCE v Richmond final here in Perth hehe

 

[Cotcho]

What does the ladder predictor assume the winning and losing teams scores are? Does a 30 point win mean 100-70 scoreline?

Unless its more sophisticated than I realise. Just did a quick check for the Carlton/Essendon game I believe it is:

Winning team For: 100 + (Margin/2)
Winning team Against: 100 - (Margin/2)

Losing team For: 100 - (Margin/2)
Losing team Against: 100 + (Margin/2)

So in your case the winning team is assumed to score 115 and the loser scores 85.

 

[IDGAF]

Couldnt be arsed reading all this so lets just take this step by step ... best case scenario visa v Ess v Carl is a bombers victory today then relying on us beating ess and collingwood doing the same in last round yeah .

Is this correct ?

 

[Groupie_]

Here's Carltank to ruin everything not that we are gonna win