Cricket Summer betting thread - India, Tri-series, World Cup

[PuntingFanatic]

Up the Kiwi's! Got out to some pretty decent odds during the match.

 

[GROTTO]

Up the Kiwi's! Got out to some pretty decent odds during the match.

As much as ~$3 from what I remember not sure if they were ever bigger than this.

 

[PuntingFanatic]

As much as ~$3 from what I remember not sure if they were ever bigger than this.

Drifted out to $5.15 grotto could have been even more than that

 

[alex mcanulty]

2u on nz 1.97

Win. What a ripper of a game.

 

[ricardogp]

Ended up -1u on the 1st Semi, because Tahir and Vettori both got 0

Aus v India

1u Glenn Maxwell highest team run-scorer @ $8 (SB with money back)

Maxwell has scored over 65 in 3/5 WC matches that he's batted in. He only missed out on Scotland (batting order shuffle) and scored a 44 against Pakistan (came in at 6, but still only 20 runs behind the top scorer). India have a better bowling lineup than Pakistan so probably likely to see him earlier. But the main thing is he has hit 13 6s int he last 3 matches, including 4 at the SCG, where they are playing tomorrow. So a good chance of getting the cashback, unless India bat first and collapse...

2u maximum player score under 109.5 @ $1.88 (SB)

First time I've seen this market, and giving it a crack. I think SB are wrong here. I've done some very quick analysis and against Australia or India this has only been beaten once in this WC (Taylor (134) v India). Otherwise Sangakkara (possibly the best batsman of the tournament) got 104 v Australia, and Taylor got 98 against Australia. 98 represents the 96th percentile in players batting 1-6. The 75th percentile is 35 runs. Crazy. (NB, Australia did conceed a couple of tons against England in the Tri-series, but I'm discounting them here. Those were play-dates.)
On the flip-side, Aus/Indian batsmen have scored 8 centuries (out of 78 inns for players batting 1-6), but the only one of note is Dhawan v SA. But the 75th percentile is still 65.
I'm convinced.

Tempted by Smith to get another 50, but not 100%. Might see what his line opens in-play.

 

[alex mcanulty]

Ended up -1u on the 1st Semi, because Tahir and Vettori both got 0

Aus v India

1u Glenn Maxwell highest team run-scorer @ $8 (SB with money back)

Maxwell has scored over 65 in 3/5 WC matches that he's batted in. He only missed out on Scotland (batting order shuffle) and scored a 44 against Pakistan (came in at 6, but still only 20 runs behind the top scorer). India have a better bowling lineup than Pakistan so probably likely to see him earlier. But the main thing is he has hit 13 6s int he last 3 matches, including 4 at the SCG, where they are playing tomorrow. So a good chance of getting the cashback, unless India bat first and collapse...

2u maximum player score under 109.5 @ $1.88 (SB)

First time I've seen this market, and giving it a crack. I think SB are wrong here. I've done some very quick analysis and against Australia or India this has only been beaten once in this WC (Taylor (134) v India). Otherwise Sangakkara (possibly the best batsman of the tournament) got 104 v Australia, and Taylor got 98 against Australia. 98 represents the 96th percentile in players batting 1-6. The 75th percentile is 35 runs. Crazy. (NB, Australia did conceed a couple of tons against England in the Tri-series, but I'm discounting them here. Those were play-dates.)
On the flip-side, Aus/Indian batsmen have scored 8 centuries (out of 78 inns for players batting 1-6), but the only one of note is Dhawan v SA. But the 75th percentile is still 65.
I'm convinced.

Tempted by Smith to get another 50, but not 100%. Might see what his line opens in-play.

im liking the maximum player bet you got, does that mean your backing no player to make 110 or over correct?

 

[ricardogp]

That is correct.

 

[alex mcanulty]

That is correct.

cheers lad

 

[ricardogp]

Ended up -1u on the 1st Semi, because Tahir and Vettori both got 0

Aus v India

1u Glenn Maxwell highest team run-scorer @ $8 (SB with money back)


2u maximum player score under 109.5 @ $1.88 (SB)

Adding:

1u Steve Smith most runs Group A @ $2.60 (TAB)

Opponents are Warner and Finch. I say they are both out of form. Aside from Finch 135 v England (which should have been a duck due to a dropped catch) and Warner 178 v Afghanistan (because Afghanistan), Finch and Warner have done very little. Highest remaining score between them is 34. 5 scores of 20 or less. Smith on the other hand has found form and scored 3 consecutive 50s. Should be favourite in this group in my opinion.

 

[banana_bus]

Any reason why the Aussies have drifted from ~1.35 to ~1.44 over the past week?

Everyone seems to be keen on India. This is a team that was beaten by England in the summer. Comfortably. Multiple times.

They haven't lost a game this tournament but haven't really beaten anyone yet either (yes, they beat South Africa - who are/were s**t this tournament).

Either somebody knows something or the whole cricket world has gone mad.

 

[GROTTO]

Any reason why the Aussies have drifted from ~1.35 to ~1.44 over the past week?

Everyone seems to be keen on India. This is a team that was beaten by England in the summer. Comfortably. Multiple times.

The Indian team that is playing today is "not the same one" that played in the tri-series, they had no right to win 8 or so ODI games in a row after their summer against us.

Since the WC has begun, they have bowled out every opposition (8X) in their path and have hit 300+ against the SA and Pakis bowling attacks which are arguably in the top 5 in the world.

I am more confident of us beating NZ(or SA if they made it) in the final (should we make it) then actually beating India.

Our advantages is that our batting lineup is longer and has a stronger underbelly than theirs, (key wickets are only Sharma and Kohli). Our bowling lineup is slightly vulnerable but we have the best bowler in the two teams ie Starc. Fielding is a massive advantage as well.

The only way India wins today is if they bat first and post a score around 300+ and their spinners cause mayhem on the SCG if it turns. Tahir/Duminy ripped through the SL batting lineup who traditionally play spin very well. Kaushal bowled well too but SL had too few runs to defend. Ashwin/Jadeja >>>>> daylight >>>>> Tahir/Duminy.

This is the key to todays match, we havent played much cricket over the past 4-6 weeks with short matches or rain affected matches meaning some of our players have not had match hardening cricket should we find ourselves in a position relying on the likes of Faulkner,Baddin to win us the match batting or the 4th and 5th bowlers while bowling we are vulnerable.

Fun Fact - (Almost certain I remember seeing this shown as a stat on TV) - If Indian spin bowlers take 3 or more wickets in the middle overs of an ODI they win every match since 2012.

At $1.40 Aust is not worth the risk, I would rather back the Hawks to win on Easter Monday at slightly better and similar odds.

Oh and the probable explanation to your question and most likely is that every recent Indian migrant in Australia has probably backed them to win so that they can travel to the ODI final in Melbourne.

 

[banana_bus]

Good analysis GROTTO - I think the SCG pitch is the key here. If the game was at the WACA we'd be $1.10.

I know you say they're "not the same team", in reality they are, they just have built a bit of confidence up by beating no some weaker teams. Their dispatching of Pakistan and South Africa was impressive but as stated earlier the Saffas were a mess this WC.

I'm also in the camp that I'm 99% sure we will beat NZ in the final, and will be hitting that hard if we make it through today.

 

[GROTTO]

Good analysis GROTTO - I think the SCG pitch is the key here. If the game was at the WACA we'd be $1.10.

I know you say they're "not the same team", in reality they are, they just have built a bit of confidence up by beating no some weaker teams. Their dispatching of Pakistan and South Africa was impressive but as stated earlier the Saffas were a mess this WC.

I'm also in the camp that I'm 99% sure we will beat NZ in the final, and will be hitting that hard if we make it through today.

If the game was at the WACA, I would be liquidating all my assets and taking $1.10

I think the other point to note is that in the tri series, (some) the games were played on the WACA and GABBA which India have traditionally struggled, at the MCG they scored about 270 which we chased it down in the 49th over. The SCG should hold no fears for them and is probably the best pitch for a sub continent team to play on. In the rained out SCG tri series game, India were 2 for 70 after 16 overs at 4.31 noting that Sharma was not playing, so they have proven they can face the first 15 or so overs and conserve wickets.

We should win today, whether thats a cakewalk or not Im not sure, I dont think $1.40 is great odds for a game that easily has the potential to be 50:50 at some stage of the game, in fact if you are looking to back Australia you would be better off waiting at some stage of the match to take advantage of better odds. I was told in an earlier post that NZ blew out to over $5

Yes you are right, Pakistan and Saffers have been a mess along with England. There has been only 3 really strong teams at this WC, us, India and NZ.

*NOTE no rain in Sydney. This is then a win toss and bat first pitch.

Fun Fact - The last time Australia lost an ODI in Australia was to SA in Sydney........oh and Peterson the left arm spinner took 4 wickets.

 

[PuntingFanatic]

Hoping we can get the chocolates today and go on to win the World Cup. Gotta do it for the nation and for Hughesy. Put some dough for the Aussies to salute in the Asian cup into the World Cup. Heading to the SCG soon pumped!

Let's go Aussies!

 

[Jugada]

Both teams playing for the runners up trophy today

Anyone know where Watson is listed to bat?

 

[GROTTO]

Both teams playing for the runners up trophy today

Anyone know where Watson is listed to bat?

I think he will continue to play middle order around 5. Its what Clarke said a few days ago.

The winner today will win the WC. Conditions down under will suit Aust and Ind more so than NZ and nullify their bowling attack.

 

[ricardogp]

I am finding this fascinating. Looking forward to an intense game.

Last time they played was in a warm-up match in Adelaide, so not sure how comparable that is to today. However in that game both sides bowled each other out, with Australia's win coming from a Warner century and Maxwell hitting 122 off 57.

Australia hit 370 that day, and even accounting for Warner's current form they should be able to hit 320+ today if they bat first. India folded with the main threats being Dhawan and Rahane.

Differences to today's game:
Australia had no Clarke, Faulkner or Hazelwood
India had no Yadav, Shami or Mohit.

I would say that Yadav and Shami are pretty central to India's attack... they have taken 31 wickets between them in the WC. Sadly I think Australia's only boon in that list is Faulkner with his crazy anti-powerplay bowling. However I've also heard on twitter that the pitch today is a road, so I'm still leaning on Australia to make over 320 batting first, and the biggest thing India has chased in the tournament is 287...

India batting first might be a different story.

 

[alex mcanulty]

Struggling to find something I like to punt on. Should be a interesting game. Best of luck

 

[Jugada]

I think he will continue to play middle order around 5. Its what Clarke said a few days ago.

The winner today will win the WC. Conditions down under will suit Aust and Ind more so than NZ and nullify their bowling attack.

How is it supposed to nullify their bowling?

 

[Jugada]

Lol at a guy betting $200 on Faulkner as MOTM getting a shout out from WillHill

#bigbets

 

[ricardogp]

Adding:

1u Steve Smith most runs Group A @ $2.60 (TAB)

Adding:

0.5u Yadav most wickets Bowler Matchbet Trios 2 @ $2.85 (SB)

I just think that Yadav is more reliable and consistent than Hazelwood and Faulkner. He's taken 2 wickets or more in 5/7 WC games. Hazelwood is OK (6 wickets in 3 games) but might be lacking some match experience. Faulkner had a purple patch against SL, but also doesn't seem to always get all of his 10 overs given to him. So with Faulkner potentially short-changed on overs and Hazelwood a bit underdone I'm happy to go for Yadav here.

 

[Pritchard]

Highest first over opinions?

 

[Th3 DoG FaTh3R]

1U Michael Clarke to score 50+ @ 2.65
1U Australia to score 315+ @ 1.88

 

[ricardogp]

1U Michael Clarke to score 50+ @ 2.65
1U Australia to score 315+ @ 1.88

If you have a TAB account they let you combine this with match winner.

Australia & Clarke to score 50 is $3.50

 

[PuntingFanatic]

Last World Cup host nation India played the reigning champs australia in the semis then went on to take the crown themselves. This World Cup in the semis host nation australia plays the reigning champs perhaps knocking them out and going on to become champs themselves. Let the roles be reversed this time around!