Preview Finals 2014 Discussion: North Melbourne v Essendon, Sat Sept 6th 7.15pm, MCG

[Ambrosia]

Essendon's only likely inclusion is Myers into the midfield for Fantasia.

If he plays like he did in round 1 we will take some beating.

 

[Old Shinboner]

I am very confident about this game.

Our form is good, Essendon since the Collingwood game has struggled to put some pretty ordinary sides away.

Think we will win easily.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Likely changes?

North

• In: Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Lindsay Thomas, Luke McDonald, Michael Firrito
  
• Out: Daniel Currie, Leigh Adams, Mason Wood, Lachie Hansen, Kayne Turner (for Tippett, comes down to Grimas fitness - can't see Adams keeping his spot even if fit)

Essendon

• In: David Myers
  
• Out: Martin Gleeson

 

[the big lebowski]

Likely changes?

North

• In: Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Lindsay Thomas, Luke McDonald, Michael Firrito
  
• Out: Daniel Currie, Leigh Adams, Mason Wood, Lachie Hansen, Kayne Turner (for Tippett, comes down to Grimas fitness - can't see Adams keeping his spot even if fit)

Essendon

• In: David Myers
  
• Out: Martin Gleeson

Pretty close to bang on from a North point of view. Except Turner will play.

Will see one of Jacobs or Mullett not play.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Likely changes?

North

• In: Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Lindsay Thomas, Luke McDonald, Michael Firrito
  
• Out: Daniel Currie, Leigh Adams, Mason Wood, Lachie Hansen, Kayne Turner (for Tippett, comes down to Grimas fitness - can't see Adams keeping his spot even if fit)

Essendon

• In: David Myers
  
• Out: Martin Gleeson

We've been asking all year for Adams to be dropped, l don't think its going to happen based on form, he must have incriminating photos of Scott at this stage.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Pretty close to bang on from a North point of view. Except Turner will play.

Will see one of Jacobs or Mullett not play.

Would have to be Mullett surely. Not sure North fans opinions of him but I don't think he's the type of player likely to excel in finals. Jacobs is inexperienced but at least his gamestyle involves cracking in and under.

 

[the big lebowski]

Would have to be Mullett surely. Not sure North fans opinions of him but I don't think he's the type of player likely to excel in finals. Jacobs is inexperienced but at least his gamestyle involves cracking in and under.

Spot on re their style of play, Mullett has been poor this year after a great year last year off half back.

The question is, can we afford to let Jacobs sit out knowing that we have the back line pretty much how we want it, so that we can get Mullett's pace and run and carry into the side.

Hindsight will tell the tale.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Spot on re their style of play, Mullett has been poor this year after a great year last year off half back.

The question is, can we afford to let Jacobs sit out knowing that we have the back line pretty much how we want it, so that we can get Mullett's pace and run and carry into the side.

Hindsight will tell the tale.

Its defence (Jacobs) v Offence (Mullet), we'll have to wait and see. Have a feeling it'll be Jacobs out and Mullet stays further up the ground alongside Gibbo and Mcondald on the wings.

 

[the big lebowski]

Its defence (Jacobs) v Offence (Mullet), we'll have to wait and see. Have a feeling it'll be Jacobs out and Mullet stays further up the ground alongside Gibbo and Mcondald on the wings.

That's what im thinking.

People say we lack pace, yet we are very good at running the football. Our backline offers lots of run, especially with Thompson, Spud and Grima playing on Danniher, Bellchambers and Chappy. Then you have Atley and Mullett.

And our mids love runnign with the footy and linking up with handball.

If we lose it will be through contested footy not from too much pace IMO.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

That's what im thinking.

People say we lack pace, yet we are very good at running the football. Our backline offers lots of run, especially with Thompson, Spud and Grima playing on Danniher, Bellchambers and Chappy. Then you have Atley and Mullett.

And our mids love runnign with the footy and linking up with handball.

If we lose it will be through contested footy not from too much pace IMO.

Clearances are crucial as is our delivery inside fifty as all our forwards are very capable when it goes to ground, especially, Turner, Brown, Petrie and Black.

 

[pazza]

Likely changes?

North

• In: Todd Goldstein, Levi Greenwood, Lindsay Thomas, Luke McDonald, Michael Firrito
  
• Out: Daniel Currie, Leigh Adams, Mason Wood, Lachie Hansen, Kayne Turner (for Tippett, comes down to Grimas fitness - can't see Adams keeping his spot even if fit)

Essendon

• In: David Myers
  
• Out: Martin Gleeson

It will be Fantasia out for Myers. Gleeson is quality enough to stay.

 

[SterlingArcher]

That's what im thinking.

People say we lack pace, yet we are very good at running the football. Our backline offers lots of run, especially with Thompson, Spud and Grima playing on Danniher, Bellchambers and Chappy. Then you have Atley and Mullett.

And our mids love runnign with the footy and linking up with handball.

If we lose it will be through contested footy not from too much pace IMO.

Yep - if you lose, I imagine it will be a repeat of round 1 with Essendon restricting your run by dominating possession with a massive win in clearances and contested possession. Nothing to do with pace (although I think North do get caught out on turnovers a lot as they can't catch some players). FWIW, I think North are most susceptible to losing matches from:

Firstly, clearances (either flogged there like the Essendon game, or just poor usage after winning the clearance straight to the likes of Bartel and Taylor in the Geelong games, or the poor usage leads to runners and users like Sidebottom, Swan, Fasolo and Lumumba did v Collingwood)

Secondly, tall forwards

• Waite - 19 disposals, 11 marks, 6 contested, 4.1
  
• Henderson - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 6 inside 50, 6.3
  
• Cloke-14 disposals, 11 marks, 5 contested, 4.4
  
• Gunston - 21 disposals, 7 marks, 6.1 (Roughead had 19 disposals, 3 marks and 2.3 that game)
• Hawkins - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 3 contested, 4.3
  
• Hawkins - 11 disposals, 6 marks, 3 contested, 3.1

I think the key forwards, bar Gunston/Roughead, all benefited though from their midfields winning out, showing that it all comes down to the middle. I think North are benefitted compared to round 1 because
1) Ziebell is playing more forward - to me, his clearance work is bull-like, but not necessarily in a good way. Yes he gets it, yes he attacks the footy, but once he gets the ball (or bucks the rider for bull-riding analogy) he just smashes it, much like a bull doesn't really know what to do except keep bullocking. So I think not having his long clearing kicks to a defensive sweeper does help (and providing an extremely hard to match-up on option up forward) will help North on Saturday. That said, he's great to have at centre clearances, just around the ground my view is that his clearance work leaves a lot to be desired
2) Swallow is in great form, one of the better extractors in the game. His inside work is fantastic imo. To go with Greenwood and Cunnington he makes a difficult midfield to beat outright from the bounce/throw-in.

Their work (and Jacobs as 5th in line) is useless though if Dal Santo, Gibson, Bastinac, Wells and Atley don't two-way run, putting the likes of Wright, Macmillan and McDonald under immense pressure (and don't want to see any of those guys 1-on-1 v Goddard or Chapman up forward...). I don't think that's pace though, I'd agree with you. Just more getting lost as opponents drift around the ground, but I'd hardly say likes of Gibson/Wells/Atley struggle to keep up to their opponents through leg-speed alone.
Need good disposal from those guys to ensure Essendon don't choke up disposal and use their imo superior foot skills to work the ball up the ground, and use the extreme height of Daniher, Ryder and Bellchambers to catch Thompson/Grima/Firrito one-out. Daniher and Ryder especially can take a grab and those stats above show that the bigger guys (bar Gunston) can trouble North down back, especially with no Hansen if the delivery is good (which is where Dal Santo, Wells, Bastinac etc come into it).

 

[the big lebowski]

Yep - if you lose, I imagine it will be a repeat of round 1 with Essendon restricting your run by dominating possession with a massive win in clearances and contested possession. Nothing to do with pace (although I think North do get caught out on turnovers a lot as they can't catch some players). FWIW, I think North are most susceptible to losing matches from:

Firstly, clearances (either flogged there like the Essendon game, or just poor usage after winning the clearance straight to the likes of Bartel and Taylor in the Geelong games, or the poor usage leads to runners and users like Sidebottom, Swan, Fasolo and Lumumba did v Collingwood)

Secondly, tall forwards

• Waite - 19 disposals, 11 marks, 6 contested, 4.1
  
• Henderson - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 6 inside 50, 6.3
  
• Cloke-14 disposals, 11 marks, 5 contested, 4.4
  
• Gunston - 21 disposals, 7 marks, 6.1 (Roughead had 19 disposals, 3 marks and 2.3 that game)
• Hawkins - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 3 contested, 4.3
  
• Hawkins - 11 disposals, 6 marks, 3 contested, 3.1

I think the key forwards, bar Gunston/Roughead, all benefited though from their midfields winning out, showing that it all comes down to the middle. I think North are benefitted compared to round 1 because
1) Ziebell is playing more forward - to me, his clearance work is bull-like, but not necessarily in a good way. Yes he gets it, yes he attacks the footy, but once he gets the ball (or bucks the rider for bull-riding analogy) he just smashes it, much like a bull doesn't really know what to do except keep bullocking. So I think not having his long clearing kicks to a defensive sweeper does help (and providing an extremely hard to match-up on option up forward) will help North on Saturday. That said, he's great to have at centre clearances, just around the ground my view is that his clearance work leaves a lot to be desired
2) Swallow is in great form, one of the better extractors in the game. His inside work is fantastic imo. To go with Greenwood and Cunnington he makes a difficult midfield to beat outright from the bounce/throw-in.

Their work (and Jacobs as 5th in line) is useless though if Dal Santo, Gibson, Bastinac, Wells and Atley don't two-way run, putting the likes of Wright, Macmillan and McDonald under immense pressure (and don't want to see any of those guys 1-on-1 v Goddard or Chapman up forward...). I don't think that's pace though, I'd agree with you. Just more getting lost as opponents drift around the ground, but I'd hardly say likes of Gibson/Wells/Atley struggle to keep up to their opponents through leg-speed alone.
Need good disposal from those guys to ensure Essendon don't choke up disposal and use their imo superior foot skills to work the ball up the ground, and use the extreme height of Daniher, Ryder and Bellchambers to catch Thompson/Grima/Firrito one-out. Daniher and Ryder especially can take a grab and those stats above show that the bigger guys (bar Gunston) can trouble North down back, especially with no Hansen if the delivery is good (which is where Dal Santo, Wells, Bastinac etc come into it).

Top analysis mate.

Re Ziebell, yep his only trick in a clearance is throwing it on his boot. Whereas spitta runs through a pack and cunnington handballs around a pack. It's weird because given time and space Ziebell is generally a good kick, maybe it's because of his lack of pace and feeling under pressure to move the footy on.

Re tall forwards getting a hold of us, I agree and disagree. Cloke was dominant earlier in the year, and the Carlton game, I saw that coming a mile away. Casboult, Waite (after a rest) and Henderson was always going to stretch us without grima (or tippet). Spud should not be asked to play key back, but injuries required it. And Hansen is Greta third man up but not great one on one.

I don't see it being a problem on Saturday night though.

Reading the bombers board they are hoping for hooker to be intercept marking. I would have thought that would be unlikely to happen. They seem undermanned in term SPF big men down back, and hooker will have his hands full with Petrie (likely to beat drew given past experiences but I can't see him peeling off drew). Hurley should beat black given form, but that leaves steinberg on 200cm athletic brown. We don't have that problem up the other end.

My biggest concern is chapman. He has left a mental scar on me, and I worry he will kick 5 on Saturday night.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Top analysis mate.

Re Ziebell, yep his only trick in a clearance is throwing it on his boot. Whereas spitta runs through a pack and cunnington handballs around a pack. It's weird because given time and space Ziebell is generally a good kick, maybe it's because of his lack of pace and feeling under pressure to move the footy on.

Re tall forwards getting a hold of us, I agree and disagree. Cloke was dominant earlier in the year, and the Carlton game, I saw that coming a mile away. Casboult, Waite (after a rest) and Henderson was always going to stretch us without grima (or tippet). Spud should not be asked to play key back, but injuries required it. And Hansen is Greta third man up but not great one on one.

I don't see it being a problem on Saturday night though.

Reading the bombers board they are hoping for hooker to be intercept marking. I would have thought that would be unlikely to happen. They seem undermanned in term SPF big men down back, and hooker will have his hands full with Petrie (likely to beat drew given past experiences but I can't see him peeling off drew). Hurley should beat black given form, but that leaves steinberg on 200cm athletic brown. We don't have that problem up the other end.

My biggest concern is chapman. He has left a mental scar on me, and I worry he will kick 5 on Saturday night.

Thanks. I wasn't sure how well it would be received, but put some effort into it. I reckon Ziebell is a product of junior footy - he was likely a monster that booted it well past what was expected and put it into space, plus less tactics. And he would have broken packs apart, so hard to adjust such ingrained habits imo.

I think Hansen out changes the dynamics a bit - I can't see JD or Ryder kicking 5 or 6 alone, but if they get 7-8 marks inside 50 and boot 6 goals combined, that would make it hard for North considering Essendon don't score heavily that often and they rely on goals from elsewhere. Hansen in would combat that, but I think Thompson could get caught out on a high ball one-on-one. Pretty good player but don't think he's infallible.

I would agree - no Fletcher or Carlisle is huge for you guys. Stretches them. I suspect Petrie would not be allowed to go near Steinberg - Hooker will need to play tight otherwise Petrie will kill packs. Black just needs to decoy. Not sure how Thomas goes against the Bombers - expect he'll find it hard with Baguley for company so just needs to make sure he doesn't get in the way of Petrie (if Hooker is zoning off him) or Brown and just stay at ground level, while Turner would be a fantastic match-up for a rebounding defender like Hibberd/Dempsey?

Pretty sure there isn't a club that Chappy hasn't scarred - Port fans (x2), Collingwood, St Kilda in finals alone..

 

[La Vache]

I will watch the rucks with interest. Ryder's ability to score could be a gamebreaker.

 

[verypoorboy]

I think whoever wins the battle between Ryder V Goldstein will win the match.
The biggest and most crucial matchup of the game no doubt.

 

[Wosh]

Very excited for this game as a neutral I find it the most interesting of all of them..kinda sick of Hawthorn Geelong and Sydney every year and I would love the see North upset the whole applecart and the BF servers go into meltdown.

 

[tigs2010]

North should win easy. Can't see essendon kicking a big enough score

 

[Dirty_11]

In all seriouslyness, I think this has the potential to be a point of difference.

Underestimating Bastinac's last month. Gibbo's been going alright as well.

 

[rooboy335]

Yep - if you lose, I imagine it will be a repeat of round 1 with Essendon restricting your run by dominating possession with a massive win in clearances and contested possession. Nothing to do with pace (although I think North do get caught out on turnovers a lot as they can't catch some players). FWIW, I think North are most susceptible to losing matches from:

Firstly, clearances (either flogged there like the Essendon game, or just poor usage after winning the clearance straight to the likes of Bartel and Taylor in the Geelong games, or the poor usage leads to runners and users like Sidebottom, Swan, Fasolo and Lumumba did v Collingwood)

Secondly, tall forwards

• Waite - 19 disposals, 11 marks, 6 contested, 4.1
  
• Henderson - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 6 inside 50, 6.3
  
• Cloke-14 disposals, 11 marks, 5 contested, 4.4
  
• Gunston - 21 disposals, 7 marks, 6.1 (Roughead had 19 disposals, 3 marks and 2.3 that game)
• Hawkins - 17 disposals, 7 marks, 3 contested, 4.3
  
• Hawkins - 11 disposals, 6 marks, 3 contested, 3.1

I think the key forwards, bar Gunston/Roughead, all benefited though from their midfields winning out, showing that it all comes down to the middle. I think North are benefitted compared to round 1 because
1) Ziebell is playing more forward - to me, his clearance work is bull-like, but not necessarily in a good way. Yes he gets it, yes he attacks the footy, but once he gets the ball (or bucks the rider for bull-riding analogy) he just smashes it, much like a bull doesn't really know what to do except keep bullocking. So I think not having his long clearing kicks to a defensive sweeper does help (and providing an extremely hard to match-up on option up forward) will help North on Saturday. That said, he's great to have at centre clearances, just around the ground my view is that his clearance work leaves a lot to be desired
2) Swallow is in great form, one of the better extractors in the game. His inside work is fantastic imo. To go with Greenwood and Cunnington he makes a difficult midfield to beat outright from the bounce/throw-in.

Their work (and Jacobs as 5th in line) is useless though if Dal Santo, Gibson, Bastinac, Wells and Atley don't two-way run, putting the likes of Wright, Macmillan and McDonald under immense pressure (and don't want to see any of those guys 1-on-1 v Goddard or Chapman up forward...). I don't think that's pace though, I'd agree with you. Just more getting lost as opponents drift around the ground, but I'd hardly say likes of Gibson/Wells/Atley struggle to keep up to their opponents through leg-speed alone.
Need good disposal from those guys to ensure Essendon don't choke up disposal and use their imo superior foot skills to work the ball up the ground, and use the extreme height of Daniher, Ryder and Bellchambers to catch Thompson/Grima/Firrito one-out. Daniher and Ryder especially can take a grab and those stats above show that the bigger guys (bar Gunston) can trouble North down back, especially with no Hansen if the delivery is good (which is where Dal Santo, Wells, Bastinac etc come into it).

Pretty good analysis for a neutral supporter and you've just made me even more anxious about what Daniher/Ryder could do with those tall forward stats Carlisle is a big, big out if he misses.

One way to tell how North are going early is how much uncontested marks and possessions we give up and if we're behind on those you can be damn sure we'll be behind on the scoreboard. Even early on against the Dees we let them maintain and work the ball around a bit and the scores were level at qtr and half time.

We just can not let the bombers work up the ground through easy, risk-free chip kicks. If all of our players, especially all the mids bring their intensity, tackle and perceived pressure, I'm confident of getting a win.

 

[Bazza37]

I'm wondering if the round 1 game will have any influence on this game.

 

[Kimbo]

Underestimating Bastinac's last month. Gibbo's been going alright as well.

Not at all. I was talking about pace on the outside, more than endurance running.

 

[Dirty_11]

I would like to think Bastinac has more toe than Goddard or Stanton.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

So freaking excited about this.

 

[GoldSoundz]

Anyone know the record in head to heads Scott V Bomber?