Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Wargreymon90]

Toumpas would have an inside/outside game ratio similar to Judd I would say

If that makes sense...

I think Wingard is a more contested player than Toumpas

 

[Footscrazy]

Thanks for the kind words.

Player comparison is more who I expect them to become.
Style is more who their game is similar to without necessarily being that same level talent.

So if someone has a similar game to say Chris Judd I'd more likely consider it a style of play as few players and none in this draft through the midfield are that same level talent and likely at the end of their career won't have that same standing in the game.

Cheers for the clarification mate.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hey Knightmare, enjoy reading your posts on the drafts and so on and like the way you handle those that get stuck into you if they disagree with what you've said about something. Classy.

I think I saw it might have been you who said that if we happened to lose Goddard and received another first round DP as compo, that we might be prepared to trade both of our first round picks for one of the GWS mini draft picks. If that was you who suggested that might be the case (or even if not), do you also think it might be possibly worth trading one of them (if Goddard leaves and we don't get anyone else through free agency, which would downgrade our compo pick) for two slightly lower picks?

For example, if we lose Goddard and end up with picks 12 and 13, do you think we might be better off keeping 12 and perhaps trading pick 13 for say two picks in the 20's (like maybe 22 and 26)? I know Geelong have apparently had some relative success trading one higher pick for two lower picks in recent years and was wondering if that might be a good idea for us this year (and do you expect any team would be prepared to trade two picks in the 20's for one pick at 13/14 (I'm guessing Gold Coast would jump at something like that)?

 

[MR]

Just from the Gipplsland v Sandringham Dragons game, here are a few notes.

Membrey will move up the ranks, he was absolutely dominant today. Tim kicked 8 to put Gippsland into the Granny. He is a natural goal kicker. I was really impressed with Ben Kearns from Gippsland, was one of the stand-outs for me. Matthew Barnes, Yilber Zijai and Christian Salem were all prominent for me. I was extremely disappointed in Josh Kelly, he accumulated the ball, but his disposal was horrendous. He barely hit a target all day. Nathan Freeman and Mitch Howes showed some really encouraging signs.

 

[superman_kon]

hey knight love your work just a quick question

Julian Dobosz. made alot of noise predraft last year and from what i hear is still kicking bags every now and then. was even talked up at one point as a first rounder if i recall. any chance of him being picked up as a project player or even in the ND as a late pick?

Myles Bolger. yes or no?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, enjoy reading your posts on the drafts and so on and like the way you handle those that get stuck into you if they disagree with what you've said about something. Classy.

I think I saw it might have been you who said that if we happened to lose Goddard and received another first round DP as compo, that we might be prepared to trade both of our first round picks for one of the GWS mini draft picks. If that was you who suggested that might be the case (or even if not), do you also think it might be possibly worth trading one of them (if Goddard leaves and we don't get anyone else through free agency, which would downgrade our compo pick) for two slightly lower picks?

For example, if we lose Goddard and end up with picks 12 and 13, do you think we might be better off keeping 12 and perhaps trading pick 13 for say two picks in the 20's (like maybe 22 and 26)? I know Geelong have apparently had some relative success trading one higher pick for two lower picks in recent years and was wondering if that might be a good idea for us this year (and do you expect any team would be prepared to trade two picks in the 20's for one pick at 13/14 (I'm guessing Gold Coast would jump at something like that)?

With the compensation in the scenario Goddard leaves it will only be the one 1st round compensation selection.

It is possible to trade the selection into two slightly lower selections and if there are two in that range that appeal maybe it is an option. Geelong have done it with success in recent years. Particular good was when they traded a pick in the 30s from memory to picks 40+42 = Allen Christensen and Nathan Vardy.

Moving from pick 13 to the twenties might be a bit of a slide but that idea is entirely possible and probably a good option if both the talents you want at 13 will be available at those two later 1st round selections you are looking at.

Clubs are always looking to upgrade selections and with few looking to move down it could be a successful move depending on the players you're keen on.

hey knight love your work just a quick question

Julian Dobosz. made alot of noise predraft last year and from what i hear is still kicking bags every now and then. was even talked up at one point as a first rounder if i recall. any chance of him being picked up as a project player or even in the ND as a late pick?

Myles Bolger. yes or no?

Dobosz likely no. Haven't heard much about him this year but perhaps a Tasmanian poster can give more info. I don't remember seeing him in the VFL v TAS game from earlier this year.

Bolger also likely not despite being keen on him last year. Production probably not where it needs to be at and has only played the 6 games so I assume he has missed games with injury.

Just from the Gipplsland v Sandringham Dragons game, here are a few notes.

Membrey will move up the ranks, he was absolutely dominant today. Tim kicked 8 to put Gippsland into the Granny. He is a natural goal kicker. I was really impressed with Ben Kearns from Gippsland, was one of the stand-outs for me. Matthew Barnes, Yilber Zijai and Christian Salem were all prominent for me. I was extremely disappointed in Josh Kelly, he accumulated the ball, but his disposal was horrendous. He barely hit a target all day. Nathan Freeman and Mitch Howes showed some really encouraging signs.

I went to the doubleheader also. Was SOS, Scully and the GWS crew on one side. I was seated on the other side near Shifter.


Some more notes.

Game 1: (Great game. Close and came down to the final kick).

Tim Membrey - Nothing new for those who have seen him in the past. Big presence and is a man. Has dominant overhead marking ability and just doesn't drop it even with pressure - only drawback is his height but plays taller. Has a long, accurate set shot. He is much the same player as Dean Galea for those who watch VFL regularly. Will get drafted and likely mid draft option. Ready to play tomorrow and was the dominant player on the day.

Salem (Draftable next year) - Hard tackler! Has some real toughness and plays a great physical brand of footy. Did some damage.

Graham - Didn't get his usual numbers but used it well by hand and foot. Inside game good reading the taps and has a nicely balanced game.

Heatherley (Hawthorn - next year)- Read it well down back taking a number of intercept marks. Loved his long goal from 50m. Went a good 60m and just unloaded. Nick Maxwell with a longer kick.

Hayes (Next year) - Key forward who presented well for the Dragons.

Stewart (Collingwood) - Had a reasonable day. Not huge numbers at full forward but hit the scoreboard several times. Not a contested marking target but has a 60m kick on him and good at ground level.

Tipungwuti - Evasive. Has a long kick on him. Good at ground level and good at the bottom of the pack.

Freeman (next year) - Has pace and finishing skills.

Zijai - Small but quick. Used his pace well and lively around clearances.

La Grice - Provided a target inside 50 and marking at times very good.

Kelly - Didn't do enough for me either. Not his usual game. Very out of character.


Game 2: (Chargers had it from the start. Skills too good and unlike the Rebels turned up from the first bounce)

Jaksch - Say it every time I see him but his kicking is incredible for a KPP! He is a genuine playmaker and just knows where his team mates are hitting them and getting the ball to where they want it. Strong overhead marking at the highest point. Genuine 1st round talent and one of the very, very good KPPs this year.

McDonald (Next year - North Melbourne) - A class above with his ball use setting up players up the field. Ran hard and has above average pace. Few defenders are classier and the guy is a genuine top 5, possible top 3 selection next year.

Billings (Next year) - Used it well. Strong overhead. Converts shots on goal. Quality fwd/mid.

MacRae - A class above. Just so calm with ball in hand and has all the time in the world. Used it well by both hand and foot finding targets and ran hard all day. Excellent outside player and another genuine 1st rounder.

Franetic - Strong mark on the lead and provided a target up forward.

Prowse - A number of scouts like his game but I didn't see it today. Got well beaten and just couldn't compete with Hendy at centre bounces.

T.Smith - Didn't like his game today. Played forward but wasn't nearly aggressive enough attacking the ball and really disappointed me. Just too passive and twise just stood there and let his direct opponent attack the ball for the mark and rebound. Not what you expect from a potential 1st/2nd round selection.

Barry - Great pace!

Crouch (Next year) - Good in close and inside work exceptional. Great by hand and knows where those players are around him. Quality player and one of the few Rebels who had a dip from the start. Might want to add some tricks to his game for next year. Not the same talent as his older brother Brad.

Rippon - Quiet in first half but started to play more his usual game in the 3rd quarter. Showed courage going for one mark and on another occasion had a nice 3 bounce sequence finding his target.

 

[aussierulesrules]

With the compensation in the scenario Goddard leaves it will only be the one 1st round compensation selection.

It is possible to trade the selection into two slightly lower selections and if there are two in that range that appeal maybe it is an option. Geelong have done it with success in recent years. Particular good was when they traded a pick in the 30s from memory to picks 40+42 = Allen Christensen and Nathan Vardy.

Moving from pick 13 to the twenties might be a bit of a slide but that idea is entirely possible and probably a good option if both the talents you want at 13 will be available at those two later 1st round selections you are looking at.

Clubs are always looking to upgrade selections and with few looking to move down it could be a successful move depending on the players you're keen on.

Cheers for all that and I realise we would only get the one compo pick if we lose Goddard, but we already have pick 12, so that would give us 12 and either 13, or 14 (depending on when Melbourne's 2nd Scully compo pick is).

Just on my proposal, is there much of a difference between the quality of someone you expect to go at around pick 14 and those you expect will be available around the mid-20's?

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers for all that and I realise we would only get the one compo pick if we lose Goddard, but we already have pick 12, so that would give us 12 and either 13, or 14 (depending on when Melbourne's 2nd Scully compo pick is).

Just on my proposal, is there much of a difference between the quality of someone you expect to go at around pick 14 and those you expect will be available around the mid-20's?

It depends on the player you are looking at but it's entirely possible a player in the mid 20s works out better than a player at say pick 14 - never any guarantees in the draft and it's really a lottery. The higher your selection the greater your chance of hitting with the selection.


I wouldn't necessarily recommend this as a strategy to do every year but more a situational thing you can look into if you rate two players you expect to go in the 20s or later but considering the best prospects available after say pick 10. All clubs evaluate talent differently and as a result this type of thing is entirely possible.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

McDonald (Next year - North Melbourne) - A class above with his ball use setting up players up the field. Ran hard and has above average pace. Few defenders are classier and the guy is a genuine top 5, possible top 3 selection next year.

Number 1. He would go top 5 this year.

Prowse - A number of scouts like his game but I didn't see it today. Got well beaten and just couldn't compete with Hendy at centre bounces.

Agree. He had a poor game and Hendy gave him a touch up.

 

[Knightmare]

Number 1. He would go top 5 this year.

I'd take McDonald top 5 this year also. Next year watch out for Aish and Boyd who will both be stars.

Aish is generally considered the best talent next year and considered by some the best prospect in a number of years while Boyd with his dominant play looks like another Jonathan Patton.


But McDonald is a properly wonderful talent and his footskills out of the back half is an absolute highlight. Like with Joe Daniher and Jack Viney would love to see him in the main draft pool. North Melbourne have a ripper coming through.

 

[blueiris]

"most people belive we should take a midfielder with our first pick but wouldn't a KPF first be better there's sure to be mids avilable later in the draft probley not as skillful but the KPF's most likely will be gone by the time we get to pick 23 as teams like Freo Collingwood (if Cloke goes )Sydney also want forwards".

 

[Knightmare]

"most people belive we should take a midfielder with our first pick but wouldn't a KPF first be better there's sure to be mids avilable later in the draft probley not as skillful but the KPF's most likely will be gone by the time we get to pick 23 as teams like Freo Collingwood (if Cloke goes )Sydney also want forwards".

I'd recommend best available.

There are a number of holes on the Brisbane list being a developing group and if you rate a guy higher than the next guy, regardless of position that is probably the best option.

It's not a great draft for key forwards so it's one of those years where it's only practical to go after one if it's a slider unless you rate a mature type such as Tom Lee higher than most and view him as say a 2nd round option then that might be an option.

With Brisbane's list in an ideal world a key forward first would be best with Jonathan Brown nearing the end and no other real options and Merrett ideally played as a key defender but this is rarely the case and makes it a judgement call.

 

[Andy_Mac]

KM,

You may have already answered this, but were would you see Martin and Hogan going if they were eligible for this years draft?

 

[Knightmare]

KM,

You may have already answered this, but were would you see Martin and Hogan going if they were eligible for this years draft?

Martin would go top 5. Hogan top 10.

 

[ollieemcdowall]

Menzel supposedly doing another knee today, pretty much guarenteed he will slide?

 

[Knightmare]

Menzel supposedly doing another knee today, pretty much guarenteed he will slide?

Can you provide a link?

Disappointing if true.

Knee or not the guy should still be a 1st rounder.

 

[betterthanu]

Can you provide a link?

Disappointing if true.

Knee or not the guy should still be a 1st rounder.

Went off, had knee iced up. Looked bad

 

[Wargreymon90]

He still had the set shot. So that should rule out an Acl shouldnt it? unless he did further damage while kicking

 

[Elite Crow]

Knightmare, Crouch had a top game playing for Westies today, I know you've most probably covered this about 20 times by now, but where would he go in this years draft?

 

[Elite Crow]

He still had the set shot. So that should rule out an Acl shouldnt it? unless he did further damage while kicking

He shouldn't have taken that kick

 

[Dav1d]

Menzel would surely have to slide given he and his brothers bad run with injuries, but could see Brisbane picking him up with their final first round pick...seems too risky for a high pick

 

[AdelaideFan14]

Hi Knightmare, thanks for the massive effort you put in with the draft! I saw that you currently have Jaksch at our first pick and the attributes you have of Jaksch in the player description remind me a lot of the attributes of Taylor Walker. I haven't seen Jaksch play at all and was wondering if you think there is a lot of similarities between the two and what would the main differences be?

He still had the set shot. So that should rule out an Acl shouldnt it? unless he did further damage while kicking

On Menzel, he had to be carried from the ground straight after the set shot and on the boundary line they appeared to be testing the "strength" of the knee laterally (looking up on wikipedia and it was either a Lachman test I think) and there appeared to be a lot of movement laterally. A later shot of him showed the side of his knee heavily iced.

 

[Knightmare]

He still had the set shot. So that should rule out an Acl shouldnt it? unless he did further damage while kicking

I haven't seen the vision. I'd like to hear official word before I say too much.

Knightmare, Crouch had a top game playing for Westies today, I know you've most probably covered this about 20 times by now, but where would he go in this years draft?

It would be interesting to see where he would go. Add him to the draft tomorrow and he would probably go around pick 2-4. Most rate Whitfield and O'Meara more highly but Crouch would be among that next group with Toumpas, O'Rourke, Grundy and company. Would pick him before these and as Gold Coast would probably use pick 2 on him.

Adelaide have a ripper and the year in a good Adelaide program has done him no harm.

Ready to play next year.

Menzel would surely have to slide given he and his brothers bad run with injuries, but could see Brisbane picking him up with their final first round pick...seems too risky for a high pick

Even with the injury my view of Menzel doesn't change. I largely expected more injuries with both his brothers issues and with LARS I always saw him as a ticking time bomb in this regard and always allowed for this in my power rankings.

Menzel is still an excellent talent and still a 1st rounder. One of the top 8 sides will fall in love with him and ultimately take him I'd expect. When healthy just too good both up forward and through the midfield. As good as his brother.

All of Geelong, West Coast, Adelaide, Collingwood, Sydney and Hawthorn should look at him closely. It's rare top clubs with picks around 20 can get a top 10 talent and that's what you get with Menzel.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, thanks for the massive effort you put in with the draft! I saw that you currently have Jaksch at our first pick and the attributes you have of Jaksch in the player description remind me a lot of the attributes of Taylor Walker. I haven't seen Jaksch play at all and was wondering if you think there is a lot of similarities between the two and what would the main differences be?

Jaksch while a strong contested mark isn't the same level dominant presence as Walker is and I don't see him as that same level dominant goal scorer.
What he does has over Walker is firstly a very good tackling game for a KPP - one of the more willing tackling talls I've seen. Can play forward or back to a high standard. Additionally his field kicking is just incredible and almost Ben Reid like. Genuine playmaker and finds targets putting it lace out where they want it.

So not as dominant as Walker is but a more versatile, more rounded talent.

 

[Check-Raise !]

Good detailed work!
I haven't the time to look through 38 pages but i see you have Grundy as Port's 1st. I know if he makes it that far he may be seen as best available but I'm just not convinced that port will recruit a ruck with their first! Is he that good that they would forego a good mid?