Mega Thread Melbourne Cup Day 2015 * All betting discussion *

[terminators]

Since Vintage Crop, how many European horses have won the Cup without a lead up run in Aus?

Form is one thing but plenty to be said for being acclimatised.

 

[terminators]

I'm on Trip To Paris at 30s but Fame Game the eye catcher for mine.

Should grow another leg at Flemington with wide open spaces and extra trip

 

[iluvparis]

Since Vintage Crop, how many European horses have won the Cup without a lead up run in Aus?

Form is one thing but plenty to be said for being acclimatised.

Zero


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[Gavin Excell]

Zero


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A few have won C Cup straight up

 

[sethlad]

Interested in peoples thoughts on Ivanhowe yesterday.
Travelled sweetly & looked a huge hope but was all over the place in the straight.
Maybe felt the ground or needed tne run,or both?

Big doubts at 2 miles for me on his Euro form but he ran better than I expected yesterday

seth

 

[terminators]

A few have won C Cup straight up

No doubt, plus Adelaide in CP and no shortage of placegetters in the MC.

That said, history is history and no first up in Aus winners in over 20 yrs and a huge list of failures in that time says backing any Euro horses is best if they've had a run here first.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Took the 81's on offer for QFM.
Minimal risk in scheme of things.

Hoping to see other fancies drift after derby day and the usual plunge in the Lexus/Saab whatever it's called these days winner.

sethlad you mentioned QFM being way over the odds, how do you see Big Orange the horse that beat QFM in the Goodwood Cup?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Interested in peoples thoughts on Ivanhowe yesterday.
Travelled sweetly & looked a huge hope but was all over the place in the straight.
Maybe felt the ground or needed tne run,or both?

Big doubts at 2 miles for me on his Euro form but he ran better than I expected yesterday

seth

I thought that similar to Snow Sky more suited to the Caulfield Cup

 

[sethlad]

Took the 81's on offer for QFM.
Minimal risk in scheme of things.
sethlad you mentioned QFM being way over the odds, how do you see Big Orange the horse that beat QFM in the Goodwood Cup?

Theres very little between the 3 of them on UK form but we wont see Big Orange before Flemington.
As hes already shorter than QFM,willing to risk

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Interested in peoples thoughts on Ivanhowe yesterday.
Travelled sweetly & looked a huge hope but was all over the place in the straight.
Maybe felt the ground or needed tne run,or both?

Big doubts at 2 miles for me on his Euro form but he ran better than I expected yesterday

seth

Similar thoughts. Posted in the cc thread but initial thought was hard to see him improving past the first two at Flem?

 

[HeathySure]

Interested in peoples thoughts on Ivanhowe yesterday.
Travelled sweetly & looked a huge hope but was all over the place in the straight.
Maybe felt the ground or needed tne run,or both?

Big doubts at 2 miles for me on his Euro form but he ran better than I expected yesterday

seth

Dont underestimate Lee Freedman training it, He got Super Impose to run really well in the Melbourne cup and he couldnt run the distance and he has an almost Bart like record in the Melbourne Cup. I think he is giving it a more traditional preperation. Is my 2nd pick behind Fame Game

 

[iluvparis]

That was 25 years ago!

 

[HeathySure]

Doesn't mean he can't still train. Bart trained winners over a fifty year span. Our Ivanhoe came off a second to let's make a deal... To run 3rd yesterday, Freedman knows what to do to set a horse for a certain race. And Caulfield cup placegetter is pretty much always the best form line for the cup


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[A11dAtP0w3R]

I dont doubt Freddy as a trainer for a second. A brilliant trainer of stayers. Record speaks for itself. Did alright with Mick Sharkie's nazi a few years back (name escapes me)

Been on the OI bandwagon since the Naturalism but i thought he had his chance yesterday, others stronger through the line IMO. More than likely still has improvement to come but i think he has been well and truly found now in Cup betting at $15. The value ship has sailed.

Didn't mind Grand Marshal's run yesterday, under a strangle hold with no room going across the line (should have finished much closer to the winner than he did). Not a winning hope but bottom end of your first fours for some value, WSTB style of last year. I would have said absolutely no place hope this time last week but appears to be going even better than he was in the autumn this prep. Extra trip and Flemington will suit.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Knew this would be highlighted. Run was ok but subsequent price move looks too much for me. Did absolutely nothing in the run and 'just' managed to run past some tired horses.

How far is he going to get back in running?


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I just don't think they tried at all yesterday - stewards think the same?
It was just a clean out the cobwebs trot & just let him stretch out at the furlong.
Expanses at Flemington will be a different case.

No surprise that some others may see it differently. In fact happy that is the case, I wish there was more that were with you............

 

[KardiniaPark]

FFS mate. How much evidence do you NEED? Last years cup was one of the all time great fluke performances. People who backed him that day need to realise they were absolutely kissed on the dick and thank their lucky stars for their cash.


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Hello friend

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

…I'm warming to Protectionist making it back to back for the lols despite sending me broke

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Glad I took the 81's on offer for QFM.
Into 67/1

 

[iluvparis]

Doesn't mean he can't still train. Bart trained winners over a fifty year span. Our Ivanhoe came off a second to let's make a deal... To run 3rd yesterday, Freedman knows what to do to set a horse for a certain race. And Caulfield cup placegetter is pretty much always the best form line for the cup


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Fair. But as stated I think he still has it all to do to improve past the 2 place getters that finished ahead of him yesterday

 

[iluvparis]

I just don't think they tried at all yesterday - stewards think the same?
It was just a clean out the cobwebs trot & just let him stretch out at the furlong.
Expanses at Flemington will be a different case.

No surprise that some others may see it differently. In fact happy that is the case, I wish there was more that were with you............

If they were trialing him yesterday good on them. But I can't have him on top after yesterday on guesswork.

 

[iluvparis]

I dont doubt Freddy as a trainer for a second. A brilliant trainer of stayers. Record speaks for itself. Did alright with Mick Sharkie's nazi a few years back (name escapes me)

Been on the OI bandwagon since the Naturalism but i thought he had his chance yesterday, others stronger through the line IMO. More than likely still has improvement to come but i think he has been well and truly found now in Cup betting at $15. The value ship has sailed.

Didn't mind Grand Marshal's run yesterday, under a strangle hold with no room going across the line (should have finished much closer to the winner than he did). Not a winning hope but bottom end of your first fours for some value, WSTB style of last year. I would have said absolutely no place hope this time last week but appears to be going even better than he was in the autumn this prep. Extra trip and Flemington will suit.

To be fair -for those jizzing over fame game yesterday it can easily be argued Grand Marshals run was almost as good

 

[sethlad]

Took the 81's on offer for QFM
?

Seems a few others may be reading this thread,now $41 & $46 betfair after plenty of $70 available.
T Berry rides at Geelong on Wed

seth

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Seems a few others may be reading this thread,now $41 & $46 betfair after plenty of $70 available.
T Berry rides at Geelong on Wed

seth

Geelong's no longer a ballot free race isn't it?

Assured of getting a run in the Cup regardless of being 26th in current OOE?

Magicool owners to press on…

 

[iluvparis]

Geelong's no longer a ballot free race isn't it?

Assured of getting a run in the Cup regardless at 26th in current OOE?

Don't think it's ever been ballot free - always ran there to get penalties.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Don't think it's ever been ballot free - always ran there to get penalties.

Fair enough, i was pretty sure it was for a while ago at least anyway, i thought all of Media Puzzle, On a Jeune and a Weir runner thats name escapes me got into the MC because they won it?

Maybe I'm wrong.