Politics North Korea May Be Preparing Missile Launch
- Thread starter KissStephanie
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- Banned
- #377
The end game I imagine would be a formalised peace treaty with the US, a new framework for the relaxation of certain sanctions and if possible, (extorting) an increase in foreign aid.
At the moment all seem unlikely outcomes, but I believe all three are part of the underlying rationale behind the DPRK's supposed hostility.
My guess is that the internal situation within the DPRK is so bad, that the regime were willing to risk out of control escalation, in the hope they could strongarm the US eventually into engaging in a backdoor diplomatic solution and force the concessions they want. The US being desperate to be seen as an effective peacekeeper in the region, not wanting to take a hit in the region militarily and concede ground to the Chinese and also that the US is straddling the edge of an economic abyss (where they cannot afford to take part in a major Asian conflict).
The US though are calling the DPRK's bluff. Probably hoping to end the cycle and knowing if things escalate, China will pressure the DPRK into relenting, fearing both the inevitable humanitarian crisis on it's border and damage to Chinese business interests. I also think the US is banking on the situation, coupled with the current round of food scarcity issues in the DPRK, destabilising the regime in the aftermath.
At least that is my take, from what I have read.
I think you are overestimating the US' fears here. They really haven't got any skin in this game. If NK are dumb enough to attack its SK/Japan that will take the hit (won't be much of a hit).
All the US' military moves have been defensive. They aren't moving offensively because they don't need to.
Look how desperate is getting NK with announcing crap like "we are putting missiles in launch mode." What next, the final countdown (Europe youtube video goes here), complete with Dr Evil menancing laugh?
NK has pretty much run out of cards. Now its either attack or backdown and cause possible social unrest.
- Banned
- #379
You are completely misunderstanding the situation.
The US doesn't fear the DPRK directly, what they fear is the flow on effect from any confrontation, both in terms of it instigating a powershift within the region and its affects on policy making back home (war with Iran, effects on the budget etc.).
My guess is secretly, the hawks in Washington would be loathe to see conflict on the peninsula which is why it hasn't happened already.
Also why there is a stalemate.
I don't think it will come to allout war, nowhere near. There will either be a slow cessation of hostilities or backdoor co-operation between the US, DPRK, Russia, SK and China to form an eventual diplomatic solution.
What flow on effects? Do you really think the China is willing to go to war with the US (and SK/Japan) over NK? We are talking 3 of China's top 5 trading partners here.
What possible powershift? China does not want the US on its borders but willing to go to war over it? Hell no. I would argue in the case of possible open war it is far more likely China would 'attack' NK itself to 'stabilize' the situation and put up a puppet government, maybe working with SK through a transitional setup.
China needs to keep its economic prosperity going to keep its people happy. Having a war over some poverty stricken backwater (with its major trading partners no less!) is not going to help that.
whiteoak
Cancelled
In the meantime, Lil Kim is winning.
The South Korean economy is really feeling the effects of this, there has been a "run" on foreign currency out of the country and any economic sanctions put in place against NK, in regards to imports, generally need China to enforce them. From all accounts, the flow of luxury goods, (and I do mean luxury), for the elite, ( and no-one else really matters in NK), continues unabated across the China/NK border.
The young boy is desperate to establish his power amongst old military men, even though he purged/executed his fathers stooges, and realises that weakness will kill him, (literally), and he is smart enough, (or well advised by his Aunty), that the West and China are in an extremely awkward position.
Same s**t, different family despot.
The South Korean economy is really feeling the effects of this, there has been a "run" on foreign currency out of the country and any economic sanctions put in place against NK, in regards to imports, generally need China to enforce them. From all accounts, the flow of luxury goods, (and I do mean luxury), for the elite, ( and no-one else really matters in NK), continues unabated across the China/NK border.
The young boy is desperate to establish his power amongst old military men, even though he purged/executed his fathers stooges, and realises that weakness will kill him, (literally), and he is smart enough, (or well advised by his Aunty), that the West and China are in an extremely awkward position.
Same s**t, different family despot.
Where are you getting that smuggling across the border between China and NK is going unabated?
http://www.echinacities.com/news/China-Suspends-Crude-Oil-Sales-to-North-Korea-What-Does-it-Mean
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...orea-falls-after-december-missile-launch.html
Plus I have heard about how they are cracking down on other smuggling.
Only the elite matter in NK but people are starving. There is a reason why NK is pushing so hard now.
This is the last roll of the dice.
- Banned
- #383
Don't be so dramatic, nor so obtuse.
If there is conflict, the right in Japan will use it as a platform to argue for reformation of the constitution, to allow partial militarization. This would just about set in stone any proposed timeline for base closure in Okinawa and weaken Japans total dependance on the US re security and therefore the US's influence over policy making in Japan.
It would also create incredible budgetary pressures for the US, effecting a whole range things from welfare and foreign aid commitments, to giving the US less flexibility in the case of having to launch an attack on Iran and/or defend the straight of Hormuz if the Israeli's decide to do something rash.
As for regional powershift, the US does not want to be engaging in any conflict in the Asia pacific region. At the moment nations are aligning due to joint concern over China, the US need to be seen as a regional peacekeeper or "referee" to maintain their influence.
If they are seen to be creating instability, unable to prevent conflict or unable to peacefully resolve it, they will lose both face and the faith of local powers. Likewise if China intervene in the conflict and subdue the North, either diplomatically or with the threat of force, they will gain significant regional influence. The Japanese are also likely to become more independent post any conflict.
Outside of maintaining control over oil/gas shipping lanes exiting the middle East (straight of Hormuz), maintaining the current power balance in the Asia Pacific region would probably be seen as top of the list re foreign policy objectives.
You are looking at things from the perspective of might, but where this could hurt the US is both fiscally and in terms of ability to exert soft power, to guarantee regional influence.
Some nationals want a soverign Japanese military. But there is hardly a large groundswell of support for it. So there goes your first 2 paragraphs.
As for engaging, what part of no offensive moves do you not understand? There are no troop buildups (except by the Chinese), no offensive moves at all. All of it has been defensive.
The US is more then happy to just squeeze NK diplomaticaly. As is China.
Bolded part makes me laugh. By your reckoning almost anything that happens is a failure on the US' part and a success for China.
I sure China right now is thinking "wow this whole NK incident is great for us!" If anyone wants this NK problem to go away its China. Preferably without causing trouble for its major trading partners.
- Banned
- #385
-_-
There is no "groundswell of support" because there has been no major foreign security threat. Things will change very, very quickly, if there is war on the Korean peninsula. Everytime there is a supposed nuclear test, or planned missile launch, someone from the right usually floats the idea to the public or creates discussion in the Diet. Genuine conflict in the region, would create genuine internal support.
Any re-militirisation will pretty much guarantee the end of US bases in Japan, because there is already large public opposition to them.
The bolded part only makes you laugh, because you are simple. The US gains if there is a diplomatic resolution on US terms, it will likely be hurt one way or the other if there is any conflict.
I also never inferred the Chinese would be excited about the situation, they also have a lot to lose, but that does not mean that they cannot emerge from the situation strategically stronger.
You seem to have a very simplistic and very misguided view of the situation, almost embarrassingly so.
whiteoak
Cancelled
I live here. And that is absolute bullshit. It was part of Abe's election platform!
whiteoak
Cancelled
You are quoting sources that are quoting China's publicised figures.
Are you really that naive?
Here's a tip: Go to Bejing sometime and have a walk around the "embassy" region.
Specifically, the NK Embassy, and have a look at all of the luxury goods, and I mean LUXURY" goods stores that are there and see what a roaring trade they are doing. And then ask the traders who is buying this stuff.
And then get on a train to Pyongyang, and watch container after container getting loaded with stuff. Really, really expensive stuff, which is expressly against the current sanctions.
Yes, I have been there and ridden that train just recently.
whiteoak
Cancelled
So you are calling it cherry picked because it doesn't fit with your theory, or your preferred media website bias?
Go eat a bag.
There are a million articles out there which proclaim the Wests frustration at China not upholding the sanctions against NK!
And another million understanding why this happens.
You really do have a tenuous grasp on this subject from all angles.
- Feb 14, 2002
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2436 posts in five weeks. Is that a record? Not much to do in Tokyo by the sound of it. Interesting perspective you provide though. Also, if you an are anti-smoker (big, scatological call, I know), shouldn't you be known as 'Why Toke'?
Now I'm being silly. Unusual for me.
whiteoak
Cancelled
2436 posts in five weeks. Is that a record? Not much to do in Tokyo by the sound of it. Interesting perspective you provide though. Also, if you are anti-smoker (big, scatological call, I know), shouldn't you be known as 'Why Toke'?
I'll consult my surgeon as to whether I should recommence training for the Boston Marathon after consecutive bouts of major surgery.
"Yep
ok
right
but can i?
oh ok
please? ok
sorry for bothering you"
It appears that he said no.
Oh...text just in says....."keep your mind active though".
- Feb 14, 2002
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I hope you are well, or at least getting better.I'll consult my surgeon as to whether I should recommence training for the Boston Marathon after consecutive bouts of major surgery.
"Yep
ok
right
but can i?
oh ok
please? ok
sorry for bothering you"
It appears that he said no.
Oh...text just in says....."keep your mind active though".
whiteoak
Cancelled
Thank you. Time will tell.
- Feb 14, 2002
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People use this site for all sorts of reasons. It's none the worse for that. Mostly, I use it to keep writing, stay abreast of current footy gossip and try to keep my mind honed. There are some good posters here, as I'm sure you've found. There are others as well. Not sure into which category I fall.
Edit: I forgot to warn you of the site's addictive nature. Though, it seems possible you've already worked that out.
my gran just broke her hip. be careful skilts
- Feb 14, 2002
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It wasn't my fault. No, really.
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
this seems to have fizzled out.
how was the issue resolved? or was it all just media hype?
how was the issue resolved? or was it all just media hype?
whiteoak
Cancelled
Why would they continue with their bluster when the media is chock full of the Boston Bombing? They're not completely f***ing stupid.
It's kinda like how there is a massive stand-off at present between Japan and China, with 8 Chinese boats entering the Senkuku's.
Any mention of that in the Australian media?
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
it does demonstrate there will be a lot of muscle flexing in the asia region over the coming years and decades
exciting but cautious times ahead.
Japan should simply exploit the oil reserves and then see if the chinese are that excited by the uninhabited islands
whiteoak
Cancelled
Yeah. That's a real smart idea.
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