NSW NSW State Election: 25th March 2023

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Jun 2, 2014
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Elections for the 58th NSW parliament will be held on 25th March 2023. The LNP and its associates will be seeking a fourth consecutive term

In accordance with state constitution the Electoral Commission is required to review district boundaries from the previous 2 elections to ensure the number of voters in each districts.

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted

The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[17]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[17]

The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor sea

In Sept 2022 Labor took the lead in the polls only for LNP to claw their way back in November.

Overall the political breakdown at state level: Labor 4 LNP 2. The NT & ACT territories are also Labor.

It's possible the NSW LNP make their federal counterparts gender diversity look robust in comparison. However recent attempts to close this gender diversity gap have been handled poorly as the left and right factions fight to protect their own. At the moment it appears some candidates won't be selected until late January giving them little time before the election.

Labor will be hoping to get a boost via the goodwill generated by their Federal colleagues which they'll definitely need. They're hardly dominating the narrative here in NSW. What they'll do with the recent self-reporting by the LNP of branch stacking remains to be seen.
The alleged branch-stacking operation is understood to have included more than 100 members, and involved people being signed up to the party and given fake email addresses in a process that may have been used to influence key votes on policy and preselections

Meanwhile both parties are far from happy the the 'Teal threat' and continue to chip away at a state. As a result the LNP announced a target to cut emissions by 70% by 2035 (this won't be legislated - which will lead cynics to count down the months for its retractions should the LNP be returned to power.

Three months to go - let the games begin.







Sources:
 
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This is interesting to me - Libs have been doing pretty badly in the polls since Perottet took over.

But I don't see anything too ghastly to have caused this shift? He seems to have kept his hardcore Catholicism hidden. Some generally good stuff that have made headlines interstate: healthcare/early-schooling announcements made alongside Andrews, lots of infrastructure spending. Matt Kean and the moderates soften their party brand relative to how they're seen in other states and have airbrushed a lot of their environmental record (AFAIK their rate of land-clearing is still appalling)

As a state branch though, they're definitely a mess, and the state Nationals will be a drag on their vote in Sydney. I don't really know anything about Minns, but NSW Labor's reputation isn't anything stunning (nor is the NSW Greens'.)

So good luck. Will be a fascinating watch from interstate. Much as it still surprises me, I won't sniff at Australia's seemingly sharp progressive turn continuing.

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Cue Sky News nuffies blaming the moderates/wokeness within the Libs if things eventuate as polled.

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Three new endorsements announced just prior to Xmas:

  1. Nathan Bracken (former cricketer) Endorsed by LNP to run for critical seat The Entrance up on the Central Coast
  2. Bradley Stanton: Endorsed by Greens to run for the seat of Woollongong
  3. Rory Amon endorsed by LNP to run for Pittwater

The Entrance is a marginal seat currently held by Labor MP David Mehan with only a 5.29% buffer against the Libs. Bracken ran as an Independent in the 2013 Federal election & as an Independent in 2017 local govt elections.

Parramatta & Drumoyne remain without an LNP candidate due to factional infighting over the LNP's need to increase gender diversity.

Perrottet &powerbrokers Damien Tudehope and Matt Kean are facing the wrath of party members after they attempted to dump Shayne Mallard, Lou Amato and Matthew Mason-Cox in favour of three women to quell growing accusations of sexism in the party. Its a full on revolt, and a woman writing this all I can think about is the entitlement of rich white men and how there's no place in the LNP for others.

If the Labor party & Teals do not savage the LNP in the lead up to the election on the LNP's sexism their mad.
 
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Trying to figure out what the Labor leader Chris Minns wants to achieve:

Minns said he would also be making a significant housing policy announcement for first home buyers after Labor’s strong opposition to Perrottet’s stamp duty reform.

If elected, Minns has vowed to rewind the reforms, which allow a first home buyer to opt in to a land tax for properties under $1.5 million and to pay an annual levy of $400 plus a 0.3 per cent tax on the value of their land.


 
Trying to figure out what the Labor leader Chris Minns wants to achieve:
Victory. I don't think he has a vision beyond that, so he's appealing to populism by taking the position of no land tax even if it's a good idea.

Meanwhile, the Greens want to tax mega-mansions worth more than $10 million to fund more affordable housing, which I think is a good policy.

 
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NSW libs seem (rightly) to try and distance themselves from their federal counterparts. Getting hamstrung by their own party politics.

It's very clear that Perrottet and the factional leaders had a plan to mitigate their damning record of gender diversity however and are also pushing for an acceptance of The Voice referendum - the old boys are having non of it.

Not sure how they can't see the writing on the wall.
 
It's very clear that Perrottet and the factional leaders had a plan to mitigate their damning record of gender diversity however and are also pushing for an acceptance of The Voice referendum - the old boys are having non of it.

Not sure how they can't see the writing on the wall.
Self delusion is a powerful thing. At some point the moderate Libs are going to have to realise the hard right are a millstone around their necks that they need to either keep a lid on or split off into a different party.
 
It's very clear that Perrottet and the factional leaders had a plan to mitigate their damning record of gender diversity however and are also pushing for an acceptance of The Voice referendum - the old boys are having non of it.

Not sure how they can't see the writing on the wall.
It's about power in the party not getting elected. Has been for years, went to one state conference in NSW and was disappointed that policy or winning office weren't discussed, it was about the relative power of the branches. The worst is actually Marise Payne, too gutless to take a stand in public but always skulking in the background getting people to push her agenda or stirring trouble between factions.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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This is how it always starts.

“Oh now forget the polls the feeling on the ground is we will win”

Followed by “we lost because we were too woke and the media brainwashed everyone against us”



His comment about Dom Perrotet not being as loathed as Morrison, potentially yea but wasn’t Steven Marshall in SA also not loathed and mostly like for his Covid response? Don’t stop him from getting the boot
 
I have a feeling the polls are misleading and the Liberals will pull this one off. The teal effect doesn't work at state level, if Victoria is anything to go by, and Matt Kean has pushed the barrow of climate action just enough to save them.
 
I have a feeling the polls are misleading and the Liberals will pull this one off. The teal effect doesn't work at state level, if Victoria is anything to go by, and Matt Kean has pushed the barrow of climate action just enough to save them.
kean is a good egg. but the cookers loathe him. if he was the prem i'd say the libs were likely. but he's not. it's the opus dei anti union pillock.
 
This is interesting to me - Libs have been doing pretty badly in the polls since Perottet took over.

But I don't see anything too ghastly to have caused this shift?
…take it you don’t live in NSW. Public transport strikes have been a mess. The train union have essentially refused to negotiate with the current government. Also the COVID bump has disappeared and Chris Minns has managed to get Labor infighting off the front page.

After 12 years in power the Coalition were always on a bit of a hiding to nothing to secure another term. With Berejiklian departing their best chance was the ALP shooting themselves in the foot, which hasn’t happened.

Nobody expects anything other than a change of government in March. The Cabinet have spent the last couple of months lining up their next jobs.
 

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