Prediction Pick 14/Draft Night Predictions

[mighty sainters]

Mods, feel free to move this, but I thought it would be interesting to see who we take/will have left to pick from at 14 (before academy selections change that), so let's all do our predictions. Based on the discussion on the main thread it looks like there'll be plenty of opinions. You can give as much or as little reasoning behind the selections as you want, but try and actually pick based on what clubs would do in their best interests (i.e. don't just make picks so your favourite can slide)

Original Draft Order (the full first round for you completionists) :
1. Carlton
2. Brisbane
3. Melbourne
4. Essendon
5. Essendon
6. GC
7. Melbourne
8. Carlton
9. Adelaide
10. GWS
11. Carlton
12. Richmond
13. Adelaide
14. St Kilda
15. Hawthorn
16. GC
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn

Selections:
1. Carlton - Weitering
2. Brisbane - Schache
3. Sydney - Mills - bid on here by Melbourne
4. Melbourne - Parish
5. GWS - Hopper - bid on here by Essendon to make GWS pay max price
6. Essendon - Francis
7. Essendon - Weideman - the smart thing to do is pick up a good key forward early in a rebuild. Could have also gone with Curnow
8. GC - Milera
9. GWS - Kennedy
10. Melbourne - Curnow - A point of difference from what they already have, and another forward to build around Hogan
11. Brisbane - Hipwood - Carlton will try and load up on talls early in the rebuild, and will make Brisbane pay a bit extra
12. Carlton - Collins - will form a fearsome defensive pairing with Weitering, continuing where they left off in the juniors
13. Brisbane - Keays - bid on by Adelaide, who may be looking for mids with the looming retirement of Thompson
14. Adelaide - Oliver
15. Carlton - Mathieson - Best available. They may go down a different path here as Mathieson may be too similar to Cripps, but together they could form a dominant inside pairing for many years
16. Richmond - Balic - best available and there isn't any needs that can be filled here
17. Adelaide - Burton
18. St Kilda
The players I think are around that mark are: Tucker, Ah Chee, Clarke, Bonner, Hibberd or Gresham. IMO I think we'll take Tucker, but I'd love us to take a punt on someone like Ah Chee, as if he fails a a mid, we will still have a really good small/mid sized forward which allows Billings to play more on the ball, rather than another half back flanker

 

[dewah07]

players i want in order @14
1. Balic
2. Oliver
3. Clarke
4. Partington
5. Milera

players i don't want
1. Weiderman
2. Collins
3. Mathieson
4. Tucker
5. Mckay's

sleeper in the draft: O'Kearney
best player in 5 years: Balic

 

[ike2112]

I've been off the radar for a bit, as we just had our own father/son nomination, but last time I saw the u18s I was wondering whether Balic was even worth using our original 1st round pick. I thought he was excellent, and a key trait for me was that he always seemed to have time even when actually under duress. Had no idea of the relevant value of other players, but Balic is going to be a classy Afl player. He looks a bit like NDS to me.

 

[gringo2011]

We kind of know already who we get if available and Matho should nearly get to us. I think the OP has the order pretty right with guys like Curnow and Collins the ones that could move around the order as teams try to secure for specific needs. Weiderman probably suit Melbourne but there aren't a great deal of other KPFs after the first couple of picks so they might to get him. Oliver reminds me of an Adelaide player. I can see them totally wanting him, looks a Dangerfield replacement. Ryan Clarke will have shot up the order late too. His recent form was good and he came home strong which helps in getting you drafted.

For me I like Dewah's list but probably switch Oliver above Balic- I like him though and wouldn't be disappointed to get him at 14. That should be around his range. I think Milera will be gone though.

 

[King_Steele]

Players I want @ pick 14 - in order:

1. Rhys Mathieson
2. Jade Gresham
3. Darcy Tucker
4. Clayton Oliver
5. Ryan Clarke

 

[gringo2011]

I've been off the radar for a bit, as we just had our own father/son nomination, but last time I saw the u18s I was wondering whether Balic was even worth using our original 1st round pick. I thought he was excellent, and a key trait for me was that he always seemed to have time even when actually under duress. Had no idea of the relevant value of other players, but Balic is going to be a classy Afl player. He looks a bit like NDS to me.

Yeah I like the basketball kids, they move smooth over the ground and work well in tight traffic. He has some poise to him.

 

[King_Steele]

Is Balic @ 14 a reach?

Discounting dewah07 sickening obsession.

 

[L_W_P]

1. Carlton - Weitering - Best available
2. Brisbane - Schache - Perfect fit.
3 - Sydney - Mills - Bid by Melbourne
4 - GWS - Hopper - Bid by Melbourne
5 - Melbourne - Parish - They moved up to get him.
6 - Essendon - Francis - Best available
7 - Essendon - Weideman - KPF to develop with Daniher.
8 - Gold Coast - Milera - Seems linked to them. Replacement for Bennell.
9 - Brisbane - Hipwood - Melbourne bid
10 - Melbourne - H.McKay - Need to develop a KPF/Ruck with Hogan.
11 - Carlton - Curnow - Best available. Family link.
12 - Brisbane - Keays - Adelaide bid.
13 - Adelaide - Oliver - Helps cover loss of Dangerfield.
14 - Carlton - Ah Chee - They need scoring power. Ah Chee helps fill that gap.
15 - GWS - Kennedy - Richmond bid
16 - Richmond - Tucker - They like taking flanker types and turning them into mids.
17 - Adelaide - Bonner - I want to say Burton but Bonner the better player.
18 - StKilda - Matheison - We have been linked to him the whole way.

 

[gringo2011]

Is Balic @ 14 a reach?

Discounting dewah07 sickening obsession.

He was in contention for a top 10 spot for a period so isn't a huge stretch, a lot around a similar quality after about pick 8 right up to about 20 I reckon. It's a bit hard to guess how they fall on the night.

 

[HappyTears]

I feel like clayton oliver has such huge potential, he's such a bull

 

[Periphery]

Tucker at 14 please.

 

[atlaser]

Players I want @ pick 14 - in order:

1. Rhys Mathieson
2. Jade Gresham
3. Ryan Clarke
4. Wayne Milera
5. Darcy Tucker
6. Clayton Oliver

Mine:

1. Rhys Mathieson
2. Darcy Tucker
3. Jade Gresham
4-6. Ryan Clarke, Wayne Milera, Clayton Oliver

 

[Persevering Saint]

Darcy, but if he's gone I won't mind getting Matho. Either is fine. I would be surprised if both are gone by 14.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Mind you, I must say, looking him up on youtube, he can get pretty rough on an ice-hockey rink!!!

 

[STK2020]

My wish .......
1. Gresham
2. Milera
3. Tucker

 

[Yabadoo22]

Blokes around the mark
1- Mathieson
2-Balic
3-tucker
4-partington
5-Ryan Clarke

 

[12Chill]

Tucker/Matho/Gresham and I'll be absolutely stoked.

 

[Grav]

I like 3 smaller players, possible replacements for Joey in a couple of years.
1. Will Snelling ....... Played seniors SANFL
2. Jade (Jack) Gresham......Played seniors SANFL
3. Daniel Rioli......Future WOW! player & if anything like Cyril, would be happy for him to only put in a quarter of a game & kick 4 goals.
IMO first two would be ready to play from the first round.

 

[Mindtraveller]

Matho or Tucker would be nice.

Wouldn't mind Curnow or Burton either.

Gresham if otherwise. Can't knock talent.

 

[OxSaint]

Does anyone know more about Ryan Clarke other than what we have seen in highlights? Looks to be the type of hard running mid with good disposal we are after.

 

[bird_man]

Would love any of Gresham, Matheison, Oliver or Tucker. Hopefully we are left with one at pick 14.

 

[holllywood]

I'm going to say we pick up Bonner and groom him similar to Webster.

And have all of Webser, Bonner, Roberton and Savage rotate through the wings and flanks to run, carry and very good disposal.

 

[Armoooo]

I'll have a crack even though I haven't followed the u/18's anywhere near as much as I used to. Seen all the highlights and saw a few games on foxtel but that's it.
1. Carlton: Jacob Weitering --- Obvious choice ---
2. Brisbane: Joshua Schache --- Obvious Choice ---
3. Sydney (Demons Bid): Callum Mills ---I am tipping Melbourne wont bid on Hopper because of the sweetheart deal they got for Bugg/Pick 7---
4. Melbourne: Sam Weiderman --- One of the last chances this draft to snag a big forward to help out Hogan ---
5. Greater Western Sydney (Bombers Bid): Jacob Hopper --- Would be rated higher than Parish ---
6. Essendon: Darcy Parish --- I understand they've been all over him for some time ---
7. Essendon: Aaron Francis --- Come out with a quality small and tall, good draft ---
8. Gold Coast: Charlie Curnow --- GC don't seem to have a player like Curnow and his potential would be worth the gamble ---
9. Melbourne: Rhys Mathieson --- Melbourne are trying to rebuild their culture at the moment, bringing in players that would die for the jumper ---
10. Carlton: Wayne Milera --- Pace and Skill ---
11. Greater Western Sydney (Crows Bid): Matthew Kennedy ---Tipping he will make it this far due to more sweetheart agreements...
12. Adelaide: Harrison McKay --- Still haven't found a long term replacement for Kurt Tippett ---
13. Greater Western Sydney: Points Used
13. Brisbane (Blues Bid): Eric Hipwood --- Carlton looking for another call ---
14. Carlton: Kieran Collins --- Sures up the backline going forward, by getting some key position players early they are setting themselves up for the future and making sure that their rebuild will include some very early picks over the next few years (tanking still doesn't exist however) ---
15. Richmond: Darcy Tucker --- More quality through the middle of the ground to help out Dusty, Lids and Cotch ---
16. Adelaide: Clayton Oliver --- Dangerfield replacement... as someone else has said, he seems like an Adelaide type ---
17. St Kilda: Callum Ah Chee --- Pace, skill and x-factor. He reminds me a bit of Xavier Clarke. Rotate him through the middle and forwardline with Billings and we start looking dangerous... compliments the no-fuss workhorses we seem to have a few of (Armitage, Newnes, Dunstan, Ross etc.) ---
18. Brisbane (Hawks Bid): Ben Keays --- It wouldn't hurt Hawks to start preparing their key position stocks for the next generation ---
19. Hawthorn: Riley Bonner --- Best Available ---
20. Gold Coast: Mitchell Hibberd --- Best Available ---
21. North Melbourne: Jade Gresham --- Best Available ---
22. Hawthorn: Harley Balic --- Best Available ---

--------------------------------
23/11/2015 Revision:
--------------------------------

1. Carlton: Jacob Weitering --- Obvious choice ---
2. Brisbane: Joshua Schache --- Obvious Choice ---
3. Sydney (Demons Bid): Callum Mills ---I am tipping Melbourne wont bid on Hopper because of the sweetheart deal they got for Bugg/Pick 7---
4. Melbourne: Clayton Olliver --- Came out of nowhere. Will hope that they will find their key forward with their next pick.
Sam Weiderman --- One of the last chances this draft to snag a big forward to help out Hogan ---
5. Greater Western Sydney (Bombers Bid): Jacob Hopper --- Would be rated higher than Parish ---
6. Essendon: Darcy Parish --- I understand they've been all over him for some time ---
7. Essendon: Aaron Francis --- Come out with a quality small and tall, good draft ---
8. Gold Coast: Callum Ah Chee --- Too many people calling it for it to not be on the money.
9. Melbourne: Sam Weiderman --- One of the last chances this draft to snag a big forward to help out Hogan ---
10. Carlton: Wayne Milera --- Pace and Skill ---
11. Greater Western Sydney (Crows Bid): Matthew Kennedy ---Tipping he will make it this far due to more sweetheart agreements...
12. Adelaide: Harrison McKay --- Still haven't found a long term replacement for Kurt Tippett ---
13. Greater Western Sydney: Points Used
13. Brisbane (Blues Bid): Eric Hipwood --- Carlton looking for another call ---
14. Carlton: Charlie Curnow --- Too talented to pass on at this stage. The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if Carlton put him up to his little misadventure ---
15. Richmond: Jade Gresham --- More quality to support Lids, Dusty and Cotch.
16. Adelaide: Ryan Burton --- Think we will just miss out on an absolutely super talent.
17. St Kilda: Darcy Tucker --- Unfortunately I feel that our pick is where the first noticeable drop in quality takes place. Would have been much happier if we had a pick even two or three spots higher. Hopefully there are a few surprises in store.
18. Hawthorn: Kieran Collins --- Preparing for life after Lake. Seems like this is going to simply fall into their lap. ---
19. Brisbane (Suns Bid): Ben Keays --- It wouldn't hurt Hawks to start preparing their key position stocks for the next generation ---

20. Gold Coast: Mitchell Hibberd --- Best Available ---
21. North Melbourne: Harley Balic --- Best Available ---
22. Hawthorn: Ryan Clarke --- Best Available ---

 

[aussierulesrules]

Balic is an interesting one. There wes an article in the Hun a couple of days ago and they were talking about him when discussing who might be taken around pick 5, so hopefully he'll be one who is gone by our pick (if we rate others higher).

Does anyone know more about Ryan Clarke other than what we have seen in highlights? Looks to be the type of hard running mid with good disposal we are after.

I think there are questionmarks on his kicking and I think there would have to be some decent issue with him, for him to not be widely spoken about as likely to go in the top 15 or so, after his finish to the year, which was huge. Had a couple of 40 possession games (one with a couple of goals thrown in for good measure) and was then also brilliant in the finals. Is a good size, plays inside and out, is meant to be tough and competitive, has real speed and just runs and runs, so he ticks a hell of a lot of the boxes we're looking for.

Sounds like a taller version of Jack Steven, perhaps with similarly questionable kicking at times.

If Matho and Tucker are gone I'll be just as happy for us to call out his name as anyone.

 

[StKing11]

Callum Ah Chee please and thankyou. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...meet-the-jetpowered-highflying-callum-ah-chee

Skills, speed, flair and X factor - exactly what we need. At best we get a game winning HF/Winger/Outside Mid, at worst we get another great small forward to crumb at the feet of Bruce and Paddy and allow Billings/Sinclair to spend more time up the ground.

He's even likened to Billings in that article, and says himself that he models his game on Shaun Burgoyne. Sounds like he's a great kid as well, big character tick.

Would be equally as happy with Mathieson or Tucker, but Ah Chee (or Milera for that matter) gives us something a bit different to what we have.