Race for the 2014 flag - who will win it?

[King Cold]

Why do people go on about "finals are played in Victoria"? Only the Grand Final is. The rest are subject to whoever the home team is, and Geelong's record on the road since 2012 has been awful. With Freo, Sydney and Port all top 4 contenders, that's a big weakness.

At least in 2011 you were scratching out wins against some pretty good sides. You beat St Kilda (6th) by 1 point, Carlton (5th) by 2, Collingwood (1st) by 3, and Hawthorn (3rd) by 5. Then on the other hand Geelong had massive wins over Melbourne (186 points), Gold Coast (150 and 66), Port Adelaide (79), North Melbourne (66), Bulldogs (61), Adelaide (52) and Richmond (62). Instead this year you're struggling against sides like Richmond (12th), Carlton (13th), Bulldogs (14th) and GWS (15th). The dynamic is completely different.

Geelong is still a good side. But they're not top 2, and many would argue they're not top 4 either.

We are currently sitting top 2 and look likely to stay there, so we won't have to worry about travelling for finals.

Our 2011 team was one of the greatest teams of all time, we have turned over half that team in 3 years, and have gone from an all time great side, to just another good team.

This is why we have only belted three teams this year, which are West Coast (75 points), St Kilda (96 points) and Melbourne (66 points).

Many of our fans are questioning whether our ladder position is papering over cracks, or whether it's a case of us doing just enough to win games.

We play North, Freo and Hawthorn in the run home to finals, none of those games will be easy, but I'm confident that the boys will be able to step up a gear.

 

[SuperSub17]

We are currently sitting top 2 and look likely to stay there, so we won't have to worry about travelling for finals.

We play North, Freo and Hawthorn in the run home to finals, none of those games will be easy, but I'm confident that the boys will be able to step up a gear.

You don't look likely to stay there IMO. On current form, Geelong would not be favourites against Hawthorn or Freo, and if good North shows up next week you'll lose that one as well.

Even if you finish 2nd, there's a decent chance you lose your first final and are then forced to play an away prelim...which history shows you will lose.

 

[Hawkk]

We are currently sitting top 2 and look likely to stay there, so we won't have to worry about travelling for finals.

Our 2011 team was one of the greatest teams of all time, we have turned over half that team in 3 years, and have gone from an all time great side, to just another good team.

This is why we have only belted three teams this year, which are West Coast (75 points), St Kilda (96 points) and Melbourne (66 points).

Many of our fans are questioning whether our ladder position is papering over cracks, or whether it's a case of us doing just enough to win games.

We play North, Freo and Hawthorn in the run home to finals, none of those games will be easy, but I'm confident that the boys will be able to step up a gear.

Really?

Subject to next Saturday Nights result you might be out of the top 2 this time next week

You also have awkward assignments against North, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Drop one of those games and you are massively exposed given your poor percentage

I can't remember the last side to make a GF after getting belted by 100 points in a home and away game nor win a flag with a for / against less than 120% Maybe North Melbourne in 1999???

 

[Hawkk]

I remember the same was being said in 2011 when we were scratching out wins rather than belting sides.

We haven't lost a game in Victoria all year, and last time I checked, that's where finals are played.

In 2011 you had one of the most destructive sides in the games history...you've just got to look at your finishing percentage - 160%

The 2014 incarnation isn't fit to clean the Geelong 2011 boot straps

Poor comparison

 

[Zarrix]

Geelong, Port and Fremantle have been different shades of awful this week, the former two grinding out wins against poor opposition despite looking remarkably like a non-finals side. Fremantle looked like a country team turning up to the oval on Saturday morning after a big night at the bar the night previous. Looked completely out of it.

Hawks Swans will say a lot next weekend. Win and it is ours to lose really. Lose and we are back to the pack with the other four. Not confident about us against the hawks on the G at all however, that's our biggest obstacle to a flag.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

You don't look likely to stay there IMO. On current form, Geelong would not be favourites against Hawthorn or Freo, and if good North shows up next week you'll lose that one as well.

Even if you finish 2nd, there's a decent chance you lose your first final and are then forced to play an away prelim...which history shows you will lose.

The AFL has decided that Hawthorn plays the Cats in round 22 on Saturday, having played Freo in Perth the Sunday before, with the Cats playing the Blues two days earlier in Melbourne.

It's going to be tough for the Hawks to beat the Cats.

 

[SuperSub17]

The AFL has decided that Hawthorn plays the Cats in round 22 on Saturday, having played Freo in Perth the Sunday before, with the Cats playing the Blues two days earlier in Melbourne.

It's going to be tough for the Hawks to beat the Cats.

Maybe so, but Geelong's form has been rubbish. If they play like they have the last two months, Hawthorn will win by 5 goals - curse or no curse.

 

[cinderella man]

Geelong, Port and Fremantle have been different shades of awful this week, the former two grinding out wins against poor opposition despite looking remarkably like a non-finals side. Fremantle looked like a country team turning up to the oval on Saturday morning after a big night at the bar the night previous. Looked completely out of it.

Hawks Swans will say a lot next weekend. Win and it is ours to lose really. Lose and we are back to the pack with the other four. Not confident about us against the hawks on the G at all however, that's our biggest obstacle to a flag.

Loser of next week imo will still be 1 of 2 teams to beat for the flag. Just makes top 2 finish a little bit more difficult. No need to panic for the loser. Sure up their position and find their best form leading into finals. I am one who thinks the Swans are just going at the moment and a loss will not surprise or bother me one way or the other. Means we have to get back to our best footy in the next 5 weeks though if we are to beat Hawthorn when it counts which we are more than capable of. Hawthorn are the biggest obstacle in Buddy being a back to back premiership player with different clubs.

 

[JungleNolan]

I can't remember the last side to make a GF after getting belted by 100 points in a home and away game nor win a flag with a for / against less than 120% Maybe North Melbourne in 1999???

Dunno about the 100 point loss, but Sydney in 2005 went 15-7 with a percentage of 116.4 and won the premiership. Also lost 3 games by more than 40 points, went on 3 game losing streak early in the year and lost a final. Pretty remarkable effort that that ended in a flag.

 

[DV2000]

Any non-geelong supporters think we have a genuine chance? Would love to know what you guys think

 

[vonn]

Any non-geelong supporters think we have a genuine chance? Would love to know what you guys think

Can't write off quality and experience, but at the same time the performance against Port, Sydney and Freo don't exactly fill me personally with confidence. I think it's pretty simple, secure a Top 2 (ie not interstate) home final and Geelong could very well win it. That's just me though.

 

[WWSD]

Any non-geelong supporters think we have a genuine chance? Would love to know what you guys think

They can. Geelong can win it at their best. Winning football is good football. Geelong still find a way to win each week. Sydney and Fremantle are two sides Geelong need to beat if they are to go far in finals.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Maybe so, but Geelong's form has been rubbish. If they play like they have the last two months, Hawthorn will win by 5 goals - curse or no curse.

While yes is so so - Cats easily accounted for Dees who today took it up to Port and week before dispensed with the Dogs who were neck and neck with Essendon who beat admittedly the flimsy Pies last week by 10 goals but who have been pretty good over last month,

Form doesn't read as bad as you make out

 

[DV2000]

While yes is so so - Cats easily accounted for Dees who today took it up to Port and week before dispensed with the Dogs who were neck and neck with Essendon who beat admittedly the flimsy Pies last week by 10 goals but who have been pretty good over last month,

Form doesn't read as bad as you make out

And also remember that the Hawks just beat GWS by 7 points (with the same final score as our game against them)

 

[Cobbler]

While yes is so so - Cats easily accounted for Dees who today took it up to Port and week before dispensed with the Dogs who were neck and neck with Essendon who beat admittedly the flimsy Pies last week by 10 goals but who have been pretty good over last month,

Form doesn't read as bad as you make out

We pumped Geelong, Adelaide, Melbourne, GWS, Bulldogs and Richmond during our streak. All of those teams proven they can cause an upset or at least play competitively. We had a narrow win against WCE and smashed Brisbane.

Saints a timely reminder that there are no easy games, but annoying still when everyone talks about our draw.

For the record smashed Pies, Essendon and Gold Coast also.

Anyway...

 

[Paul Kersey]

Any non-geelong supporters think we have a genuine chance? Would love to know what you guys think

No.

 

[Cobbler]

Any non-geelong supporters think we have a genuine chance? Would love to know what you guys think

Think you will require a perfect run in the finals (Obviously) but what I meant was get Port or Fremantle at home and win. Get a week off somehow dodge Hawks and Swans in Prelim. Then somehow get Port or Freo in GF.

I really can't see them beating Swans or Hawks in a final.

For the record I think similar of Freo but our perfect run involves 2 finals at Subi and somehow missing Hawks and Swans in GF also.

 

[King Cold]

You don't look likely to stay there IMO. On current form, Geelong would not be favourites against Hawthorn or Freo, and if good North shows up next week you'll lose that one as well.

Even if you finish 2nd, there's a decent chance you lose your first final and are then forced to play an away prelim...which history shows you will lose.

Hawthorn will start favourites against us as they always do, but we will take care of them like we have 12 of the last 13 times.

We won't be losing to Brisbane or Carlton.

North and Freo will be tough assignments, I think we will drop one of those games, but a 17-5 record should still be enough to secure top 2.

 

[SuperSub17]

Hawthorn will start favourites against us as they always do, but we will take care of them like we have 12 of the last 13 times.

We won't be losing to Brisbane or Carlton.

North and Freo will be tough assignments, I think we will drop one of those games, but a 17-5 record should still be enough to secure top 2.

The problem is right now, Geelong is playing the worst football it has basically since 2006. Maybe early 2012 might challenge it. But you've always been in decent enough form when you play Hawthorn - that's why I said "on current form Hawthorn will win". Because Geelong has been bog average for two months now.

Carlton also probably should have won last time you met so I wouldn't be overly confident with that game either.

 

[King Cold]

Really?

Subject to next Saturday Nights result you might be out of the top 2 this time next week

Hawthorn won't be losing to Western Bulldogs or Melbourne.

They should take care of Freo and Collingwood as well given their recent domination over those two sides.

They won't beat Geelong, but Sydney is 50/50, and that game could be the difference between a home final and the possibility of travelling in the first week.

You also have awkward assignments against North, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Drop one of those games and you are massively exposed given your poor percentage

I can't remember the last side to make a GF after getting belted by 100 points in a home and away game nor win a flag with a for / against less than 120% Maybe North Melbourne in 1999???

Port Adelaide got belted by 15 goals in 2004 and won the flag.

Sydney finished with a percentage below 120% in 2005 and won the flag.

In 2011 you had one of the most destructive sides in the games history...you've just got to look at your finishing percentage - 160%

The 2014 incarnation isn't fit to clean the Geelong 2011 boot straps

Poor comparison

I acknowledged the difference between the 2011 and 2014 Cats outfits in one of my previous posts.

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn will start favourites against us as they always do, but we will take care of them like we have 12 of the last 13 times.

We won't be losing to Brisbane or Carlton.

North and Freo will be tough assignments, I think we will drop one of those games, but a 17-5 record should still be enough to secure top 2.

Just because you've beaten us in 12/13 games before doesn't mean it's going to continue. It's still a 50/50 game, but it won't be an easy task for Geelong in Round 22, especially given their current form. Geelong need to play at their best to beat us.

 

[Hawkk]

Hawthorn won't be losing to Western Bulldogs or Melbourne.

They should take care of Freo and Collingwood as well given their recent domination over those two sides.

They won't beat Geelong, but Sydney is 50/50, and that game could be the difference between a home final and the possibility of travelling in the first week.

Why?

I would suggest that we are far more likely going to beat Geelong than Freo at Subiaco...

 

[King Cold]

Why?

I would suggest that we are far more likely going to beat Geelong than Freo at Subiaco...

Hawthorn have been dominant over Fremantle in recent times and I expect that to continue when they meet in Round 21.

Hawthorn's recent record against Geelong on the other hand is poor.

 

[Millky95]

On the topic of Geelong, I think there are a few ways they can get up and win:

1. Their superstars really lift consistently and they become the team they should be.
2. They don't leave Victoria for the finals.

2 is the biggest one for me. Their big time players will play well in the bigger games (Freo, Hawks, North) with full certainty. But their wins outside of Victoria were against Brisbane and GWS with the latter they nearly lost against. Their road losses include: 40 against Port, 32 against Freo, 110 against Sydney and 40 against Gold Coast. All teams they could very well play against. Geelong finish 1-2, they need to win or hope to hell they play Hawthorn in the prelims. They go interstate and I struggle to see them winning. Assuming a top 4:

Qualifying final vs Freo/Sydney away. They're more likely to lose. Play home in the semi, should win. Prelim VS Hawks good chance, against Freo/Sydney they're out.
Qualifying final vs anyone home. More likely to win and they'll need to. They win, they stay in Victoria. They should make the GF and have a serious shot. They lose however, they win the semi and unless they play Hawks, will likely lose in the Prelim.

I am likely to support Geelong against Hawthorn. IMO when they're on song their style of play is too good and with Hawkins and Kerstan I think they can beat the Hawks defense. At the MCG they should win but not interstate.

 

[Spoken4]

Hawthorn will start favourites against us as they always do, but we will take care of them like we have 12 of the last 13 times.

We won't be losing to Brisbane or Carlton.

North and Freo will be tough assignments, I think we will drop one of those games, but a 17-5 record should still be enough to secure top 2.

I reckon there could be two or three teams on 17 wins or more vying for top 2.

BTW, you are way too confident in your team's form. Of the five teams vying for top 4, the best have been for the second half of the season Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn, Geelong and then Port. Based on your past 9 games, you could easily lose to North, Hawthorn and Freo and even Carlton.