Autopsy Round 14 vs Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Cricket Ground - 18/06/23 - 1:10pm

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Beware the "BYE" hoodoo...........Lions and Freo who had R12 bye both lost to teams below them and both looked out of sorts to my eye....and Syd played Saints, so at least there was a winner there ;)
Could be a factor but also

Hawthorn have owned Brisbane the last few years + MCG record is like 1/14

Freo suck when it rains
 
I can already feel myself getting annoyed at the number of free kicks the umpires are going to pull out of their a** against Collins for Mackay with a pro-Carlton crowd.

Which means we will have to watch him and his snap BS all game.

Yeah, thats gonna be a few free behinds to the Carlton total!
 
Please Carlton, don't sack Voss. Just hold on for 1 more week so we can do it
 
Let’s just pray they hold Voss till the bye, we can’t play the new coach bump
 
Jack Martin going to the draft so we don’t get any comp for him, good career move
w***er.
 
Kennedy their only mid with more than 2 tackles, literally just let essendon walk around them.

Walsh 35 touches, 0 tackles. Soft as
 

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For future reference, we're currently $2.08 underdogs in the eyes of the bookies for this one. I dare say we'll be even money with the Blues at some point next week, particularly if they lose to Essendon on Sunday night.
Heading that way now. We're into $1.98 now and I reckon we'll be pretty close to even money tomorrow.
 
Just gotta make sure we choose the correct team for the MCG. I feel we have lost a few winnable games at team selection.

Could Flanders come in? Or are his chances done?

Do we stick with Davies and Fiorini again, or try and bring in outside run?

Weller may be fit, for instance, and could take one of their spots. Ellis is another option. I’d suggest Sharp, but his papers are stamped (he did play inside mid last week in VFL, which is interesting…)

Rosas hasn’t been hitting the scoreboard, but I doubt Sexton comes in.

So, overall, I don’t see Dew making many changes. But Weller/Ellis may force his hand if fit.

Must win this one! :)
 
Just gotta make sure we choose the correct team for the MCG. I feel we have lost a few winnable games at team selection.

Could Flanders come in? Or are his chances done?

Do we stick with Davies and Fiorini again, or try and bring in outside run?

Weller may be fit, for instance, and could take one of their spots. Ellis is another option. I’d suggest Sharp, but his papers are stamped (he did play inside mid last week in VFL, which is interesting…)

Rosas hasn’t been hitting the scoreboard, but I doubt Sexton comes in.

So, overall, I don’t see Dew making many changes. But Weller/Ellis may force his hand if fit.

Must win this one! :)
My Best 23

Considering tonights performance from Carlton
  • Midfield pressure non-existent
  • Cripps playing on a broken ankle (probably)
  • Walsh and Cerra get 30+ but 0 hurt factor
  • Acres has 0 killer passes in the forward 50
  • McKay & Curnow will get their shots
  • No other forward can kick a footy
  • Tag Saad and we'll be fine
  • Docherty goes ok but plays all thirds of the ground so no impact

How to beat Carlton
  • Win Contested football (Ranked #1) Carlton (Ranked #11)
  • Win Clearances (Ranked #2) Carlton (Ranked #15)
  • Witts v De Koning (Ranked #3) Carlton (Ranked #9)
  • Tackles inside 50 (Ranked #7) Carlton (Ranked #17)
  • Goal Accuracy (Ranked #11) Carlton (Ranked #18)
  • Disposals (Ranked #18) Carlton (Ranked #4)

Long - Collins - Macpherson
Jeffrey - Ballard - Powell
Ellis - Humphrey - Weller
Ainsworth - Lukosius - Swallow
Holman - King - Casboult
Witts - Rowell - Anderson

Atkins - Rosas - Andrew - Fiorini - Berry (sub)

Basically Andrew, Ellis & Weller in, Berry out to sub Davies & Farrar gets dropped.

Good mix of speed and contested ball winners, if the bye was kind to us we'll out run them with our overlap and spread.

Mac comes in, he's part of Dew's plan not sure who he'll match up on Jack Martin maybe?
 
My Best 23

Considering tonights performance from Carlton
  • Midfield pressure non-existent
  • Cripps playing on a broken ankle (probably)
  • Walsh and Cerra get 30+ but 0 hurt factor
  • Acres has 0 killer passes in the forward 50
  • McKay & Curnow will get their shots
  • No other forward can kick a footy
  • Tag Saad and we'll be fine
  • Docherty goes ok but plays all thirds of the ground so no impact

How to beat Carlton
  • Win Contested football (Ranked #1) Carlton (Ranked #11)
  • Win Clearances (Ranked #2) Carlton (Ranked #15)
  • Witts v De Koning (Ranked #3) Carlton (Ranked #9)
  • Tackles inside 50 (Ranked #7) Carlton (Ranked #17)
  • Goal Accuracy (Ranked #11) Carlton (Ranked #18)
  • Disposals (Ranked #18) Carlton (Ranked #4)

Long - Collins - Macpherson
Jeffrey - Ballard - Powell
Ellis - Humphrey - Weller
Ainsworth - Lukosius - Swallow
Holman - King - Casboult
Witts - Rowell - Anderson

Atkins - Rosas - Andrew - Fiorini - Berry (sub)

Basically Andrew, Ellis & Weller in, Berry out to sub Davies & Farrar gets dropped.

Good mix of speed and contested ball winners, if the bye was kind to us we'll out run them with our overlap and spread.

Mac comes in, he's part of Dew's plan not sure who he'll match up on Jack Martin maybe?
Witts vs Pittonet
 
Have to reward Long and get him to do a defensive job on their best small/med forward? Don't even know who that is, they're putrid at the moment.
If Weller is good to go, I think perfect sub - he's too good to ease back in through the magoo's. Alternatively, maybe Ellis as super sub?
Carlton are slow and soft, take out Saad and there is no other run from the backline. Maybe some small attention to Walsh? Probably Rowell and Walsh head-to-head? Ando has a bit bigger to go to Cripps and will absolutely burn him on the outside.
Witts and Levi should dominate against their rucks. Confident on all our matchups, however always feels like a danger game and nervous.
 

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