September Daily Punt

[iluvparis]

What are everyone's thoughts on the current Waller domination in Sydney after he trained the first 6 across the line in the Chelmsford?

From a punters perspective I think its a negative - haven't seen the stats and it might just be confirmation bias but it doesn't seem their is too much of a positive correlation between the more fancied horses in the betting and their probablity of actually winning, with his horses in double figures regularly rolling his more fancied runners. Is this a myth?

 

[rideclutch]

Don't have the figures, but certainly not keen to back his favourites with 2 or more multiple runners in the race. Look at that race the other week, he had about 5 in it, fave was the Wagga Cup runner up (?) name escapes me - trains the first 4, fave misses the drum.

That said, I don't have a problem with his numbers as such, I just treat his horses fairly equally when he's got 3 or more engaged. Take his horses out of Sydney's pathetic field sizes and you'd have 4 going around in each race.

Edit: Chelmsford I wouldn't worry about, Entirely Platinum was the wrong price and Criterion just went shocking, both were expected to probably beat Junoob home though.

 

[rideclutch]

On a slightly different note, not really a jumps fan but I just watched Hornet's Nest win at the 'Bool for the first time...

Won by 18, sprinted up the straight like it was an Oakleigh Plate, in record time. Might see the best of this cult hero over the hurdles.

 

[sethlad]

Whatever Wallers doing tactically in melb clearly isnt working
Record of his favoured runners is diabolical

seth

 

[PureFooty]

His doing plenty wrong in Melbourne, won 3 of his last 30 in melbourne at single figure odds, that's not including the saturday that just past.

 

[Tassieboy]

Doomben Race 6 #5 Water Kiss @ $6.50 Tatts.

 

[Tassieboy]

What a joke race 1 was at W. Farm - 3 runners...

 

[Jugada]

I actually don't mind the small fields of 3-5 every now and then

 

[banana_bus]

What a joke race 1 was at W. Farm - 3 runners...

I got the trifecta

 

[iluvparis]

His doing plenty wrong in Melbourne, won 3 of his last 30 in melbourne at single figure odds, that's not including the saturday that just past.

Solid stat

 

[PureFooty]

Solid stat

He's now 4 from 32, with Mulaqen winning, Foreteller and Our Voodoo Prince, the other 2 in single figures that both ran 3rd. I get the feeling as poor as he has been, that there's going to be a shift pretty soon, from what I've listened to on the radio through other analysts, he's been getting the Melbourne tactics very wrong (Pace, position in run etc) I feel this has come across because he doesn't have the ability to dictate the race, and there's a bit of guessing, but apparently he's actually come out, and said he's putting more time into Melbourne. Could explode over the next few weeks. Might start with Boban and Brazen Beau this week... but I'll probably risk both at this stage.

 

[PureFooty]

Alright, thought I'd kick this one of as I'm seeing them pretty well of late.
Won't post units because I haven't finalised all that yet, and the fact it's nearly 2am.

$ Valley
R1. Count Encosta to kick things off. Quinella with Hippopus if you like exotics.
R3. Big play on Caveka. Think it is a very good horse, didn't get a look at them last start. It was backed 8-5's first up, so it had market support, biggest bet of the day in Melbourne. Expect smart money for it late. So I'd be locking in odds.
R4. Wrotham Heath is poison odds. Probably won't play myself, but Relentless and Post D'France at nice odds could be worth a little bet EW
R5. 2.90 Cauthen the place will do me. And really that and Unpretenitious should be running out the placings, so for those that like them, that's what i'd be doing, maybe even It is written at big odds because it loves the valley.
R7. Biggest result of the day for me would be if Foreteller wins, strong, strong EW play. 6/2.15 is just great odds for the horse who is clearly the best rated horse outside the offer, who should find this too sharp surely. Simply a ripping EW bet.
R9. I've got a big opinion of Atlante. New stable it's trialed super, and last prep first up in Australia, it just didn't handle the ground but still ran super. This will be a lot firmer, reckon it's another ripping EW bet.

Randwick
R1. I've had a bit of time for Black Revolver who finally got one on the board last start. I think it can go on with it, it's drifted so hopefully you can maybe get $4 about it come pre race, I think it has a bit of ability. Wet track is the query, but I think it will handle it.
R2. Heavier the better, if it's a heavy track I like surpass, otherwise I'll sit out.
R3. Valentia was very good and who knows it may have one last start. I think it's overs, though getting closer to right price. So I'll have a play on that.
R5. Geez I think Criterion has come back absolutely super, wetter is better, $6 and even money the place, yep that'll do me, reasonably bet on this one.
R6. Step 1. Watch Sessions trial. Step 2. Transfer funds into account. Step 3 Place win bet sessions. Step 4. Speed will be set up via Rain Affair, it's the best horse in the race fresh, maybe a tiny query if it's a heavy 10, but I'm not sure that's really that big an issue, it will be running home the fastest, will get a good run, should be winning.
R7. Small play Hooked, My Sabeel if wet, and Ninth Legion.
R8. Rock Study is a tough tough horse, but I want to be on Dowdstown Charlie, providing a bit of give in the track. It's runs have been better than it reads.

Good luck.

Saw them alright last week, good win on Caveka and Atlante but I took an embarrassing price about Atlante. I'll post tomorrow night, but let's just say ive had a few units on the Commanding Jewel/Catkins/ El Roca doubles and trebles.

 

[Lockyer24]

Comm Jewel too short. Opened $3.20 but it seems that's well gone. Knew it would happen though.
Divan looks good value, thanks Bossy.
Keen on Brazen Beau and More Radiant - they have come up faves

I took an embarrassing price on Atlante too

 

[PureFooty]

Comm Jewel too short. Opened $3.20 but it seems that's well gone. Knew it would happen though.
Divan looks good value, thanks Bossy.
Keen on Brazen Beau and More Radiant - they have come up faves

I took an embarrassing price on Atlante too

I agree 3.20 was overs, TAB had 3.35 when markets opened I'm pretty sure, I'm on at 3 flat. But I seriously think she has the potential to be the best mare in Australia. She'll be winning, haven't been this keen on one in a while. So anything over 2.25 seems value to me

 

[rideclutch]

Outstanding card at Flemington really.

Massive interest in Race 4 - Chivalry vs Zebulon vs Divan.

 

[iluvparis]

I agree 3.20 was overs, TAB had 3.35 when markets opened I'm pretty sure, I'm on at 3 flat. But I seriously think she has the potential to be the best mare in Australia. She'll be winning, haven't been this keen on one in a while. So anything over 2.25 seems value to me

For a while!?!?! What about old mate It's A Dundeel - thrown out like yesterday's chip paper

 

[rideclutch]

The Makybe has me interested... Dissident won so well first up, but was it a fluke or is he actually that good?? Boban, who knows, especially if there's not much tempo on. Always worried PDL will jarr up again if the track is firm...

I'm thinking Fawkner EW??

 

[yaco55]

Nice photo of Royal Descent returning to scale today...

Won't ever win again.

Hope Royal Descent doesn't become another Shamus Award.

 

[yaco55]

Waller did very well at the 2013 Melbourne Spring Carnival - Should do well in this year's carnival,although he will have to do it more with the tried and true - Has some progressive types but doubt they are Group 1 or 2 types at this stage - In saying that big trainers find a way.

 

[PureFooty]

For a while!?!?! What about old mate It's A Dundeel - thrown out like yesterday's chip paper

To be fair, it was about 5 months ago, and I didn't feel the great one should be mentioned in the same post as inferior horses. But yes, CJ is probably the most keen I've been on a horse since IAD.

 

[PureFooty]

Flemington
R1
No 5 Lumosty 3 Units
Going with Lumosty who's run behind a couple of good ones last prep (Eloping x2, Earthquake) A few winning chances, and we've got some from Adelaide and Brisbane, who I'm weary of, but he's the one I like, and am backing the trainer to have it right.

R2
No 12 Livery 2 Units
Livery, drops 7.5 kegs on it's first up win. Yes, that was a BM70, and this is harder, but there is a few non-winners who are seen as winning chances. Marskmanship obvious danger, but I think this horse has a bit more dynamic.

R3
No 8 Bass Strait 2 units EW
Couple of horses who are going on to bigger and better things in Williams' and Weirs. However, I feel this horse is over its odds and should be ridden a little better this time. It may still be just as close but they won't be going as hard. Gets out another 300m and is closer to the distance it wants Nice little EW bet.

R4
No 5 Zebulon 8 Win Units @6.50 , 12 Place Units @2.35
Having a strong opinion, which as I've said in the past can make you a bit of cash or lose you a bit. Not sure Divan will live up to the hype, I haven't been as impressed with its runs as others have and I have a few queries. Chivalry is a nice type, and you could tell it would come back better as a 3yr old and it has. Was impressive first up, and should improve 2nd up. However, I really like Zebulon. I think this horse has a stack of ability. You go through its 3 starts and it's first reads 5 lengths 2nd Zeletto, but should've finished a lot closer, and that was over 1000. Won impressively 2nd up. And in its last hit out Bossy gave it a really ordinary ride, 3, 4 wide no cover doing plenty of work, but it showed heaps to keep fighting on and only tiring really late for 3rd, massive run for me. It's been given a nice little spell, and though it reads first up over 1400m, I reckon this horse is ready to win. It's versatile as it can jump with them and sit close, or it can go back and show a really good sustained run. It had a trial, and I thought it was super flew late whilst being held nicely. That proved to me that it's got the residual fitness and genuine class. That's the one I want to be on. It's drifted to 6.50 and i've had a go, but I'm just tossing and turning on whether to act greedy and hope it drifts more with the love of chivalry, or if they'll start to zone in on it as well. One of my better bets

R5
No 1 Commanding Jewel 25 Units @3
Trifecta (1/2,5,6,7,8) 3 Units
Best bet of the day for me. Classy, classy horse. First run was super, and is just simply the best horse in the race, who in fact won the same one 2nd up last year. Gregers has come back well, but I just think anything under 5.50 is just not worth taking. This looks to me as a flat run for it, after owning the race first up, then really having to give its all 2nd up against A Time for Julia. Look how far CJ got in front 100m after the post. Managed to get 3's, but I'd be taking it right up until it's odds on. So the 2.50 you can get now is still value for mine. It gave Catkins a KG last year who's not too bad of a horse (Order went CJ/Catkins/ATFJ/Bonaria who was also impressive) ... Clear best bet of the day for me. Little Trifecta there as well risking Gregers. jnj

R6
No 16 Onerous 4 Units EW @26/6.50, No 7 Go Indy Go 3 Units Win @10, No 11 Stingray 2 Units Win.
I'm pretty excited by one here at massive odds. Onerous, has had 1 trial and a win at Bendigo, then I delved a bit deeper, and watched it's trialled. Led, was headed a couple went past it and then it fought back late. Important things to note about this was, it wasn't touched. The winner of the trial was Washington Heights who's not bad and it was at Rosehill. Then Team Hawkes bring it down to Bendigo, where it's backed in 3.50-2 and wins how you would want it to win as punter, and as someone doing form, it probably won ever better, if that makes sense. Win had merit anyway, and I'm willing to have a bit of a crack EW @26. Go Indy Go was super in the G1 over 1600m in the spring, won of the better wins. This is first up over 1200m, but class tells a tale sometimes, and it has a big finish on it, it is capable of sitting in a handy position as well, so I think it has a big chance bit of Lucia Valentia sorta potential win about it (Class horse resuming, similar odds, both looking for further). And finally, well, will give Stingray one more chance who I'm certain has a good win in it, been unlucky in all it's runs, and definitely has ability. Very underrated horse, but maybe it's just one who just finds trouble. (Notice Ben Melham onboard)

R7.
No 9 Dissident 12 Units win No 2 Fawkner 3 Units win
Great race, I think Dissident is a superstar. His first up win was enormous, and fortunately I was on him (look through his form and you'll be surprised you wern't as I almost wasn't). Will be on again here, great field, great horses, but doesn't appear too much speed, Late Charge probably wonders to the lead again, with probably Messene and Sertorius keeping it honest. But again not too much speed, PDL probably gets stuck on the inside 3 back Messene 1-1 and Dissident 2-1. So to me he gets the gun run again, should improve 2nd up and will give a great and honest sight. Maybe he's a bit short, but if he's the superstar we think he might be, then it will be justified. The others I respect are Boban, but it's probably going to get 4 or 5 back, might even track Dissident into it. It raced really well last start, when it was wide and did a lot of work. But if I'm going to give Boban a good chance, then I've got to give Fawnker a real chance. He's one of the best horses we have in the country, and Lloyd has a massive opinion of it. It's 1 run in the autumn was huge over 1200m in the William Reid (last 200 very good, under little riding on the rail). He'll be jumping out of the ground late, and if Nick Hall, can give a good ride, then maybe he's the freak that can knock off Dissident. Respect PDL and Spillway.

R8
No 5 El Roca 10 Units EW @5/2, 5 Units Chautaqua @7
Amazed at the 6.50 put up El Roca, I honestly think it could start with a high 3 low 4 come the start of the race. My only concern is Barrier 17 and how the track will play out there. If there is no disadvantage then it just seems a ripping bet. Temple of Boom, British General, You're So Good, Akavoroun all have pretty wide barriers as well and can go forward, so that may give El Roca a nice sit, and it can really let down when it has a run, don't think the straight will cause any problems either. Pretty keen on him (Also thrashed dissident first up last prep, not bad...) The other I'm scared of is Chautauqua who is a classic Team Hawkes horse going through the grades. First up and it's form is OK (beaten by Nautical and then won as 1.24 pop) It's now racing off the pace and has responded well with some really good runs, including its last in may where it missed the kick and ran a couple of lengths Cosmic Endeavour, think it could be the danger, definitely has ability. Speediness (Won it last season) TOB may fire fresh? Flamberge Flying, and akavoroun also flying the others who you could chuck in the multiples for sure. But another bold bettig strategy in this one.

R9
F4 3,4,9,13,14,17,18 Depends how we're going, but just a fun bet.
Not very keen on this race, might actually play a first 4. Under the Louvre is the best of the eye catchers, just a really great horse to own you'd think. Terrific win record for a get back horse. Rhythm to spare with Ollie needs to be respected seeing as he rode Our Hand of Faith fresh who went super and is another winning hope. Late Charge, another good chance if it runs, By the Grace has comeback well. Extra Zero and Shoreham the other 2 at long odds to chuck in your multiples.

That's 105 Units, and the fun bet at the end. FWIW I generally like to play around 100 units when I'm confident and am keen in most races. I wen't a little over that today, and have in other days such as during the championships last year. Most would say but it's just relative even if your only backing 3 things for the day you could still go to a hundred units, but for some reason adding 25 units Win when your playing 100 units with many bets emphasises a bigger play than if you bet on 3 horses and have 1 @60 units 25 and 15 who you may be investing a considerably lower amount on.

Good Luck, hope it gives those that are keen either some confidence or just a different perspective, and the casual punters a little bit of insight into how horses have been going and just general form.

Happy Punting (I'll post a for a couple of races in Sydney tomorrow night, but if your following my tips and you want a price Catkins $2 shouldn't last)

 

[iluvparis]

I don't buy this Dissident is a superstar vibe that appears to be going around at the moment. He was a decent 3yo (no superstar) and wasn't even that highly fancied when winning the Randwick Guineas. He then started 16/1 in the Donny (star 3yo's don't start that kind of price in the Doncaster), and still started double figures in his first up win. No chance I can back him as a hot price fave second up here. He has 4 wins from 14 starts FFS!

I know he has become a massive money muncher but I am happy to give PDL one last chance. Flemington is his track and if he doesn't win here I think he'll be struggling to pick up a race for the rest of the spring.

 

[PureFooty]

I don't buy this Dissident is a superstar vibe that appears to be going around at the moment. He was a decent 3yo (no superstar) and wasn't even that highly fancied when winning the Randwick Guineas. He then started 16/1 in the Donny (star 3yo's don't start that kind of price in the Doncaster), and still started double figures in his first up win. No chance I can back him as a hot price fave second up here. He has 4 wins from 14 starts FFS!

I know he has become a massive money muncher but I am happy to give PDL one last chance. Flemington is his track and if he doesn't win here I think he'll be struggling to pick up a race for the rest of the spring.

You know he's going to win this and then go on to win the Cox Plate now you've said that. But seriously he could. I'm not saying he was a champion 3yr old, but he was bloody honest and consistent. As a 4 yr old though, he's looking like he's come on a fair way again. Was really hard ridden around the turn and just picked up and raced a way like a really good horse.

 

[PureFooty]

Also you can get $34 about onesaurus now, so I'll have another unit ew at that price.

 

[iluvparis]

You know he's going to win this and then go on to win the Cox Plate now you've said that. But seriously he could. I'm not saying he was a champion 3yr old, but he was bloody honest and consistent. As a 4 yr old though, he's looking like he's come on a fair way again. Was really hard ridden around the turn and just picked up and raced a way like a really good horse.

I would prefer a really good horse to travel easily to the turn and burn them off. The fact he was scrubbed up a fair way out also concerns me for tomorrow.