September Daily Punt

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iluvparis said:
I don't buy this Dissident is a superstar vibe that appears to be going around at the moment. He was a decent 3yo (no superstar) and wasn't even that highly fancied when winning the Randwick Guineas. He then started 16/1 in the Donny (star 3yo's don't start that kind of price in the Doncaster), and still started double figures in his first up win. No chance I can back him as a hot price fave second up here. He has 4 wins from 14 starts FFS!

I know he has become a massive money muncher but I am happy to give PDL one last chance. Flemington is his track and if he doesn't win here I think he'll be struggling to pick up a race for the rest of the spring.
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Agree on dissident disagree on PDL. Fawkner the obvious overs this race with boban the danger IMO spillway an outside chance.
 
iluvparis said:
I don't buy this Dissident is a superstar vibe that appears to be going around at the moment. He was a decent 3yo (no superstar) and wasn't even that highly fancied when winning the Randwick Guineas. He then started 16/1 in the Donny (star 3yo's don't start that kind of price in the Doncaster), and still started double figures in his first up win. No chance I can back him as a hot price fave second up here. He has 4 wins from 14 starts FFS!

I know he has become a massive money muncher but I am happy to give PDL one last chance. Flemington is his track and if he doesn't win here I think he'll be struggling to pick up a race for the rest of the spring.
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I think Australian racing needs a good WFA horse. I hope Dissident is it.
 
not very good at write ups but this is what i like for the day

FLEMINGTON

RACE1 : 1,3,9

RACE2: 5,12,8

RACE3: 3*

RACE4: 2,5,11

RACE5: 1**

RACE6: 9,10,11,2

RACE:7: 6,7,2

RACE8: 8,11,2,7

RACE9: 13,14,18

Quaddie

9,10,11,2,1,7/
2,6,7,8/
8,11,2,7,1,15/
12,14,18
 

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Great day for racing, very interested in r4 at Flemington the Living Legends Stakes. No bet race but Bossy was very keen on his mount great win last start and shot straight to guineas fav. Have a keen eye on the Hickmott horse Divan, was impressive in Wednesday class off a slow tempo and missed the start.

Lets Elope stakes: got the $3 on CJ early in the week and happy to just sit on that. I think she wins, interested to see her spring path but Connections are talking cox plate if all goes to plan. Big wraps.

Danehill stakes, not really sure which way I want to go in this race. Hope that Rich Enuff gets out to a good price to back EW. Was impressive last start all the way win @ the Valley, open field I think there are at least 5-6 chances in this race.

Makybe Diva stakes: I like Boban @ 4's Last start in the Memsie sat wide with no cover, made up ground late. Gets his chance.

Bobby Lewis: Field for your quaddie :) I'll be having something EW on Temple of Boom. Loves the Flemington straight. Last start 2nd Doomben 10,000. First up record 11-4-2-0 Good enough for me.

Theo Marks stakes: Kirramosa is the value, will be looking for further don't mind the 6's on offer. Won 2nd up last prep. Not keen to back cluster at 2.90 too short for me.

Kingston Town stakes: La Amistad opened CC Fav, but having been allocated a low 50.5kg (may be wrong) needs to do something to gain a start. J McDonald is flying. No bet race for me but keen to see how this horse goes. Gatewood other big chance.

Sheraco stakes: Catkins wins.

Golden Rose: tbh I am struggling here and really don't know which way to go. Hallowed Crown was impressive last start, could the Moody/Nolan super team be back this spring?? Host of chances Happy to go wide in this leg.


Best of luck everyone, lets all find some winners.
 
PureFooty said:
Also you can get $34 about onesaurus now, so I'll have another unit ew at that price.
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Hope you got some of that, back into 21 getting really keen about it's chances. Also El Roca has been scratched which is dissapointing. So instead ill have another 5 win units Chataqua, 5 Units charlie boy, 5 Units Flamberge
 

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PureFooty said:
Saw them alright last week, good win on Caveka and Atlante but I took an embarrassing price about Atlante. I'll post tomorrow night, but let's just say ive had a few units on the Commanding Jewel/Catkins/ El Roca doubles and trebles.
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PureFooty said:
Flemington
R1
No 5 Lumosty 3 Units 2nd a nose
Going with Lumosty who's run behind a couple of good ones last prep (Eloping x2, Earthquake) A few winning chances, and we've got some from Adelaide and Brisbane, who I'm weary of, but he's the one I like, and am backing the trainer to have it right.

R2
No 12 Livery 2 Units Went shocking
Livery, drops 7.5 kegs on it's first up win. Yes, that was a BM70, and this is harder, but there is a few non-winners who are seen as winning chances. Marskmanship obvious danger, but I think this horse has a bit more dynamic.

R3
No 8 Bass Strait 2 units EW Ran well, but looking for a bit further and more fitness.
Couple of horses who are going on to bigger and better things in Williams' and Weirs. However, I feel this horse is over its odds and should be ridden a little better this time. It may still be just as close but they won't be going as hard. Gets out another 300m and is closer to the distance it wants Nice little EW bet.

R4
No 5 Zebulon 8 Win Units @6.50 , 12 Place Units @2.35 Ughh, just jumped poorly and didn't have any early speed which was disappointing, run was super, but could only manage 3rd.
Having a strong opinion, which as I've said in the past can make you a bit of cash or lose you a bit. Not sure Divan will live up to the hype, I haven't been as impressed with its runs as others have and I have a few queries. Chivalry is a nice type, and you could tell it would come back better as a 3yr old and it has. Was impressive first up, and should improve 2nd up. However, I really like Zebulon. I think this horse has a stack of ability. You go through its 3 starts and it's first reads 5 lengths 2nd Zeletto, but should've finished a lot closer, and that was over 1000. Won impressively 2nd up. And in its last hit out Bossy gave it a really ordinary ride, 3, 4 wide no cover doing plenty of work, but it showed heaps to keep fighting on and only tiring really late for 3rd, massive run for me. It's been given a nice little spell, and though it reads first up over 1400m, I reckon this horse is ready to win. It's versatile as it can jump with them and sit close, or it can go back and show a really good sustained run. It had a trial, and I thought it was super flew late whilst being held nicely. That proved to me that it's got the residual fitness and genuine class. That's the one I want to be on. It's drifted to 6.50 and i've had a go, but I'm just tossing and turning on whether to act greedy and hope it drifts more with the love of chivalry, or if they'll start to zone in on it as well. One of my better bets

R5
No 1 Commanding Jewel 25 Units @3 Super win, from a genuine group 1 horse. Simply too good.
Trifecta (1/2,5,6,7,8) 3 Units Nailed this one as well, risked Gregers and got the rewards with a fast finishing Nautical giving us a really good return at $10 the place and bumped the trif $411, was sweating a bit with the protest but they did the right thing by me.
Best bet of the day for me. Classy, classy horse. First run was super, and is just simply the best horse in the race, who in fact won the same one 2nd up last year. Gregers has come back well, but I just think anything under 5.50 is just not worth taking. This looks to me as a flat run for it, after owning the race first up, then really having to give its all 2nd up against A Time for Julia. Look how far CJ got in front 100m after the post. Managed to get 3's, but I'd be taking it right up until it's odds on. So the 2.50 you can get now is still value for mine. It gave Catkins a KG last year who's not too bad of a horse (Order went CJ/Catkins/ATFJ/Bonaria who was also impressive) ... Clear best bet of the day for me. Little Trifecta there as well risking Gregers. jnj

R6
No 16 Onerous 4 Units EW @26/6.50, No 7 Go Indy Go 3 Units Win @10, No 11 Stingray 2 Units Win. Stingray and Onerous ran well, not sure onerous liked the straight however, but clearly has a bit of talent. Go Indy Go was poor.
I'm pretty excited by one here at massive odds. Onerous, has had 1 trial and a win at Bendigo, then I delved a bit deeper, and watched it's trialled. Led, was headed a couple went past it and then it fought back late. Important things to note about this was, it wasn't touched. The winner of the trial was Washington Heights who's not bad and it was at Rosehill. Then Team Hawkes bring it down to Bendigo, where it's backed in 3.50-2 and wins how you would want it to win as punter, and as someone doing form, it probably won ever better, if that makes sense. Win had merit anyway, and I'm willing to have a bit of a crack EW @26. Go Indy Go was super in the G1 over 1600m in the spring, won of the better wins. This is first up over 1200m, but class tells a tale sometimes, and it has a big finish on it, it is capable of sitting in a handy position as well, so I think it has a big chance bit of Lucia Valentia sorta potential win about it (Class horse resuming, similar odds, both looking for further). And finally, well, will give Stingray one more chance who I'm certain has a good win in it, been unlucky in all it's runs, and definitely has ability. Very underrated horse, but maybe it's just one who just finds trouble. (Notice Ben Melham onboard)

R7.
No 9 Dissident 12 Units win No 2 Fawkner 3 Units win Got the quinella, but obviously didn't take it. Both were a good result with the Fawkner result probably giving us a bit better result.
Great race, I think Dissident is a superstar. His first up win was enormous, and fortunately I was on him (look through his form and you'll be surprised you wern't as I almost wasn't). Will be on again here, great field, great horses, but doesn't appear too much speed, Late Charge probably wonders to the lead again, with probably Messene and Sertorius keeping it honest. But again not too much speed, PDL probably gets stuck on the inside 3 back Messene 1-1 and Dissident 2-1. So to me he gets the gun run again, should improve 2nd up and will give a great and honest sight. Maybe he's a bit short, but if he's the superstar we think he might be, then it will be justified. The others I respect are Boban, but it's probably going to get 4 or 5 back, might even track Dissident into it. It raced really well last start, when it was wide and did a lot of work. But if I'm going to give Boban a good chance, then I've got to give Fawnker a real chance. He's one of the best horses we have in the country, and Lloyd has a massive opinion of it. It's 1 run in the autumn was huge over 1200m in the William Reid (last 200 very good, under little riding on the rail). He'll be jumping out of the ground late, and if Nick Hall, can give a good ride, then maybe he's the freak that can knock off Dissident. Respect PDL and Spillway.

R8
No 5 El Roca 10 Units EW @5/2, 5 Units Chautaqua @7 (6.2) Nailed this one as well, Chautaqua was impressive and El Roca would've had to be on its game to beat that, but I'm not going to doubt he would've. Note I had another 5 units with scratching and 5 on TOB and CB
Amazed at the 6.50 put up El Roca, I honestly think it could start with a high 3 low 4 come the start of the race. My only concern is Barrier 17 and how the track will play out there. If there is no disadvantage then it just seems a ripping bet. Temple of Boom, British General, You're So Good, Akavoroun all have pretty wide barriers as well and can go forward, so that may give El Roca a nice sit, and it can really let down when it has a run, don't think the straight will cause any problems either. Pretty keen on him (Also thrashed dissident first up last prep, not bad...) The other I'm scared of is Chautauqua who is a classic Team Hawkes horse going through the grades. First up and it's form is OK (beaten by Nautical and then won as 1.24 pop) It's now racing off the pace and has responded well with some really good runs, including its last in may where it missed the kick and ran a couple of lengths Cosmic Endeavour, think it could be the danger, definitely has ability. Speediness (Won it last season) TOB may fire fresh? Flamberge Flying, and akavoroun also flying the others who you could chuck in the multiples for sure. But another bold bettig strategy in this one.

R9
F4 3,4,9,13,14,17,18 Depends how we're going, but just a fun bet. Missed a 10K F4 by a nose.... Hope some of you got the trif or backed Extra Zero EW.
Not very keen on this race, might actually play a first 4. Under the Louvre is the best of the eye catchers, just a really great horse to own you'd think. Terrific win record for a get back horse. Rhythm to spare with Ollie needs to be respected seeing as he rode Our Hand of Faith fresh who went super and is another winning hope. Late Charge, another good chance if it runs, By the Grace has comeback well. Extra Zero and Shoreham the other 2 at long odds to chuck in your multiples.

That's 105 Units, and the fun bet at the end. FWIW I generally like to play around 100 units when I'm confident and am keen in most races. I wen't a little over that today, and have in other days such as during the championships last year. Most would say but it's just relative even if your only backing 3 things for the day you could still go to a hundred units, but for some reason adding 25 units Win when your playing 100 units with many bets emphasises a bigger play than if you bet on 3 horses and have 1 @60 units 25 and 15 who you may be investing a considerably lower amount on.

Good Luck, hope it gives those that are keen either some confidence or just a different perspective, and the casual punters a little bit of insight into how horses have been going and just general form.

Happy Punting (I'll post a for a couple of races in Sydney tomorrow night, but if your following my tips and you want a price Catkins $2 shouldn't last)
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PureFooty said:
Hope you got some of that, back into 21 getting really keen about it's chances. Also El Roca has been scratched which is dissapointing. So instead ill have another 5 win units Chataqua, 5 Units charlie boy, 5 Units Flamberge
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PureFooty said:
Also in Sydney I have 20 Units Catkins $2. 12 Units Better Land 6.50
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One of those weeks that could've been a an absolute monster with a nose costing us a couple decent wins, was still a monster though. Loaded up on the CJ Catkins double as well, still wish El Roca was fit though, may have won even more...Also had 5 Units Under the Louvre @5.50 a few mins before the race with the knowledge of how the track was racing and that was another nose defeat. And the Trifecta was pretty awesome to win as well.

Melbourne
+87.6 Units

Sydney
+8 Units

Multiples 50+ Units in front
The CJ/Catkins double which I had 10 Units on @6 (+50 Units)
Lets Elope Trifecta 3 Units, 12 Combinations= .25 of the overall dividend (411)= 102.75= +99.75
Multiple Result +149.75

Total result
+245.35
Would be my 2nd best result from memory.
 
OhhhhhCyril said:
Great day for racing, very interested in r4 at Flemington the Living Legends Stakes. No bet race but Bossy was very keen on his mount great win last start and shot straight to guineas fav. Have a keen eye on the Hickmott horse Divan, was impressive in Wednesday class off a slow tempo and missed the start.

Lets Elope stakes: got the $3 on CJ early in the week and happy to just sit on that. I think she wins, interested to see her spring path but Connections are talking cox plate if all goes to plan. Big wraps.

Danehill stakes, not really sure which way I want to go in this race. Hope that Rich Enuff gets out to a good price to back EW. Was impressive last start all the way win @ the Valley, open field I think there are at least 5-6 chances in this race.

Makybe Diva stakes: I like Boban @ 4's Last start in the Memsie sat wide with no cover, made up ground late. Gets his chance.

Bobby Lewis: Field for your quaddie :) I'll be having something EW on Temple of Boom. Loves the Flemington straight. Last start 2nd Doomben 10,000. First up record 11-4-2-0 Good enough for me.

Theo Marks stakes: Kirramosa is the value, will be looking for further don't mind the 6's on offer. Won 2nd up last prep. Not keen to back cluster at 2.90 too short for me.

Kingston Town stakes: La Amistad opened CC Fav, but having been allocated a low 50.5kg (may be wrong) needs to do something to gain a start. J McDonald is flying. No bet race for me but keen to see how this horse goes. Gatewood other big chance.

Sheraco stakes: Catkins wins.

Golden Rose: tbh I am struggling here and really don't know which way to go. Hallowed Crown was impressive last start, could the Moody/Nolan super team be back this spring?? Host of chances Happy to go wide in this leg.


Best of luck everyone, lets all find some winners.
Click to expand...

CJ and Catkins best bets got up, thank god.
I got Rich Enuff EW at $5.90/2.20
Temple of boom $3.10 place
Hallowed Crown got up.

Was all going good, till I got sucked into the shorty at Morp race 7, and then backed the Waller thing in the last and rosehill and the horse that olly road in the last at Melbourne really really hurt.

Should have been a very good, turned out much worse.
Dear Demi was the standout for me today.
 
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