Analysis Sydney's depth - an analysis

[swansfan51]

In 2013, Sydney used 35 players. 8 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2012, Sydney used 31 players. 8 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2011, Sydney used 35 players. 7 of them played every game, 7 played <5 games.
In 2010, Sydney used 36 players. 8 of them played every game, 6 played <5 games.
In 2009, Sydney used 33 players. 9 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2008, Sydney used 36 players. 8 of them played every game, 9 played <5 games.

From studying the past 6 years, 3 things become obvious:

1) We need 30-35 players to play AFL football next year.
2) Around 8 of our best players will play every game.
3) We'll have 5 fringe battlers who come in for a game or 2.

On average, 1 player will have a serious injury and not be available all year (this year it was Alex Johnson). This effectively adds another player to the list of numbers we need to get through the year. So with 36 players, we have sufficient depth. The final 8 spots on the list are deadweight, and have never once been used in our past 6 seasons.

1 - Jack
2 - Kennedy
3 - McVeigh
4 - Malceski
5 - Tippett
6 - Franklin
7 - O'Keefe
8 - Hannebery
9 - Parker
10 - Richards
11 - Smith
12 - Mitchell
13 - Pyke
14 - Jetta
15 - Rohan
16 - Grundy
17 - Rampe
18 - Cunningham
19 - Jack
20 - Reid
21 - Bird
22 - McGlynn

Then the 4 players coming off serious knee injuries

23 - Shaw
24 - Goodes
25 - Johnson
26 - Roberts-Thomson

And another player with knee injuries who has previously been proven at AFL level

27 - Jeremy Laidler

Then we need another 9 players to play AFL in 2014. 4-5 of them can be mediocre battlers. Now we have to get out the crystal ball and nominate players who have not yet proven themselves at AFL level, but will get there. Here's a guesstimate:

28 - Membrey
29 - Lockyer
30 - Richards

Then we can add ~4 strugglers

31 - Walsh
32 - Lloyd
33 - Towers
34 - Biggs

Then I expect we will add 4 players in the National draft, and 2 players in the rookie draft (including Perris). History suggests we will debut 1-2 first year players out of this group of 6.

35 - Draftee 1
36 - Draftee 2

If you don't like the players from 28-34 I've suggested, replace them with a Marsh, Robinson, Dick or Naismith. The players you list between 30-34 will only play a couple of games anyway.

TL/DR: We should have 35 players capable of playing AFL, of which we have the necessary 28-30 who are actually pretty good. As long as all the knee injuries heal and we don't lose Pyke or Richards we'll be fine.

 

[Punts]

LRT came back and played 3/4 in the 2s and was pretty good and then flew to Perth , so he would be of that knee list ?

 

[baja]

LRT came back and played 3/4 in the 2s and was pretty good and then flew to Perth , so he would be of that knee list ?

He was warming up in the last final and could be seen clearly pedalling furiously right up until the last second ready for a late change, he was determined and he should have played, I was very surprised he didn't and I said then it was a bad call.

 

[S120]

The only alternative is to enter our club into an AFL 9's competition. We'd be killer.

But yes, our depth is worrying. As such, my hopes of a flag in 2014 are not particularly high. 2015 onwards - given the recruitment staff rectify the issue - is another thing though.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Smart analysis swansfan51. It really shows how consistent we are with regards to how we approach our line ups, resting & rotations in/out of the squad.

We try to play our best players throughout the year and rather than mass restings of stars we rest them while still playing them (if that makes sense). They might not get a week off but may get all of the protection/reduced responsibility &/or game time a week here or there in the hope that will be enough to keep them fresh without having to give them a week off.

So while our leaders are important (thus on teh field for as much as possible) I think it shows that our support players who "fill the gaps" are just as important in supporting our 'front line' stars in maintaining a strong game plan throughout the year and chiming in even now and then (particularly when our stars are a bit flat).

 

[Keyter]

i would take out
Shaw & Goodes & Johnson and assume anything they give is a bonus.
Also take out the one season ending injury to a regular senior player that you mentioned and than its a bit slim (pending the drafts).

Seaby could be added which would be handy if it happens. Would have a point to prove like he did the 1st time around, before injury hit him.

But it will be the number of 10 to 50 game players in the team each week that could hold us back next year. ie. the balance might be out if injuries hit as servere.

Perhaps they will rest players with a week off here and there next year - as a reaction to all the injuries this year.

 

[doona]

i would take out
Shaw & Goodes & Johnson and assume anything they give is a bonus.

I agree taking out shaw, goodes will be lucky to play early in the year but I wouldnt rule the line through johnson just yet.

 

[Punts]

I agree taking out shaw, goodes will be lucky to play early in the year but I wouldnt rule the line through johnson just yet.

They say time frame for
Lars which Shaw had : Late August
Return to running 8-12 weeks
Return to sport 12-16 weeks

Hybrid Lars which AJ had: Early August
Return to running 12 weeks
Return to sport 16 weeks

That's all going well but I guess will wait and see with the Pre season updates , so if all goes well and they get there fitness back pretty quick we could see them early in the year we hope.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Seaby could be added which would be handy if it happens. Would have a point to prove like he did the 1st time around, before injury hit him.

Sorry, is there talk of Committed Christian coming back to the Swans? (I'm overseas and a bit out of the loop right now.)

Would get my vote if so. If he can stay injury free, I still think his best is not bad. Would take the pressure off Pyke, which is a big concern I think, and let Tippett focus on being a forward target.

 

[Superstar swan]

Well franklin will have his customary 4 week rest due to " hamstrings ". I'm not opposed to that idea. He is the most damaging player in the game and you want him fresh come finals

 

[MarkP]

Well franklin will have his customary 4 week rest due to " hamstrings ". I'm not opposed to that idea. He is the most damaging player in the game and you want him fresh come finals

If we have a relatively full list available next year for most of the games I reckon we should do more "resting" under whatever guise, hell even use the truth, similar to Geelong/Hakws/Freo.

I understand we couldn't really do it last year given the decimation the list suffered but this coming year all things being equal I reckon we can use "list management" or whatever the hell they want to call it a lot better.

 

[S120]

Well franklin will have his customary 4 week rest due to " hamstrings ". I'm not opposed to that idea. He is the most damaging player in the game and you want him fresh come finals

No he isn't. Gary Ablett is the best, most damaging, most valuable and baldest player in the game.

 

[Swansujelly]

One wonders what Towers is going to do with Laidler signed up? Thats 4 189 cm defenders. Certainly no room forward for him.

 

[Wolftone]

I think Biggs did enough in the last few rounds to say he will be ok at AFL level. He at least keeps his composure. Goodes will be back and ready to play first game according to the reports. AJ & Rhyce are on track to come back in the first half of the season. LRT is fit already and is primed to go.

I don't know how many reserves games you have seen Swansfan but I doubt it would be many by those observations. I would put Towers, Lloyd & Biggs ahead of Lockyer. Lockyer is about the same level as Brown and he got cut. Biggs is way ahead of him and so are the others. Tommy Walsh may not play until later in the first half of the season or early in the second half. He had to have three muscles grafted back onto the bone, it was a major op and takes a long time to recover from. He is on his feet but not sure about how far along he is.

Marsh and Robbo are very good prospects and Robbo looks really good. Dick has problems with his delivery especially kicking. Naismith is a long term ruck prospect and he is developing very well but I can't see him getting much game time this year. He might play a few when we need to rest Pyke.

Lloyd Perris might even get a start this year and you are forgetting Patrick Mitchell. Look how fast Pyke came along, if we could develop Mitchell at the same rate he may be ok. We won't know until we get a look at him. The depth is not so bad as I think Membrey and Xav will both be good players and most of the list are I think quite able to present at AFL level. Wait for the NAB cup when we would have had much more preseason than last year and our young players have now had a second or third preseason. Then we will see who is traveling well.

 

[Wolftone]

One wonders what Towers is going to do with Laidler signed up? Thats 4 189 cm defenders. Certainly no room forward for him.

Towers is a winger/forward. he hasn't played off the back flank for most of last season. Played a few games there before being moved to the mids and then when we needed forwards late in the season went forward and proved very good. great on a wing, very dashing and dangerous because of his delivery.

 

[Punts]

One wonders what Towers is going to do with Laidler signed up? Thats 4 189 cm defenders. Certainly no room forward for him.

A little bit different players ,Laider is a 3rd Tall , Towers is very very quick and athletic I could see Towers( IF )he comes on to replace Shaw with his run and carry of the HBF

 

[Swanhotels]

One wonders what Towers is going to do with Laidler signed up? Thats 4 189 cm defenders. Certainly no room forward for him.

I think if he gets a go it will be likely to be I a wing.

 

[Wolftone]

Sorry, is there talk of Committed Christian coming back to the Swans? (I'm overseas and a bit out of the loop right now.)

Would get my vote if so. If he can stay injury free, I still think his best is not bad. Would take the pressure off Pyke, which is a big concern I think, and let Tippett focus on being a forward target.

Seaby would be a mistake and I can't see the Footy Department looking for a quick fix. I think there will be an accommodation made and maybe Sam or LRT will share ruck duties. Although I prefer LRT to Grundy personally.

 

[Swansujelly]

Towers is a winger/forward. he hasn't played off the back flank for most of last season. Played a few games there before being moved to the mids and then when we needed forwards late in the season went forward and proved very good. great on a wing, very dashing and dangerous because of his delivery.

Ressie watchers can help there, I read he went missing a fair bit.

 

[Punts]

Ressie watchers can help there, I read he went missing a fair bit.

I only seen 4 games live so im no expert but the games i seen he does go missing a bit ,but he does have the athletic side to his game that would be very handy at AFL level , quick , tall , and breaks the lines and in the last game I seen his pressure and tackling wasn't to bad either but Grim would no more than me

 

[swansfan51]

I think Biggs did enough in the last few rounds to say he will be ok at AFL level. He at least keeps his composure. Goodes will be back and ready to play first game according to the reports. AJ & Rhyce are on track to come back in the first half of the season. LRT is fit already and is primed to go.

I don't know how many reserves games you have seen Swansfan but I doubt it would be many by those observations. I would put Towers, Lloyd & Biggs ahead of Lockyer. Lockyer is about the same level as Brown and he got cut. Biggs is way ahead of him and so are the others. Tommy Walsh may not play until later in the first half of the season or early in the second half. He had to have three muscles grafted back onto the bone, it was a major op and takes a long time to recover from. He is on his feet but not sure about how far along he is.

Marsh and Robbo are very good prospects and Robbo looks really good. Dick has problems with his delivery especially kicking. Naismith is a long term ruck prospect and he is developing very well but I can't see him getting much game time this year. He might play a few when we need to rest Pyke.

Lloyd Perris might even get a start this year and you are forgetting Patrick Mitchell. Look how fast Pyke came along, if we could develop Mitchell at the same rate he may be ok. We won't know until we get a look at him. The depth is not so bad as I think Membrey and Xav will both be good players and most of the list are I think quite able to present at AFL level. Wait for the NAB cup when we would have had much more preseason than last year and our young players have now had a second or third preseason. Then we will see who is traveling well.

I said if you don't like the players between 28-34, swap them. Swapping Lockyer and Walsh for Towers and Biggs makes no difference to the concept so I'm not fussed about which reserves people have a particular preference for. I am not forgetting anyone - Perris was specifically mentioned and might be one of the 2 draftees I said would historically get a game or 2, as might Mitchell, though realistically I had Mitchell as a lower chance to play in 2014 than whoever we draft with our first 3 ND picks. Swap Mitchell and Perris into Draftee 1 + 2 if you like.

 

[Wolftone]

Ressie watchers can help there, I read he went missing a fair bit.

I saw a lot of Twos games the last two years. I only go to the games at the SCG & ANZ but I do get the games on stream and he started slowly playing back flank but by half way through the season he was starting to really fire in the mids and later HF/CHF. In the finals he was awesome and can only get better from there. Everyone I know at the Twos games reckons he was unlucky not to get a seniors game.

 

[Wolftone]

I said if you don't like the players between 28-34, swap them. Swapping Lockyer and Walsh for Towers and Biggs makes no difference to the concept so I'm not fussed about which reserves people have a particular preference for. I am not forgetting anyone - Perris was specifically mentioned and might be one of the 2 draftees I said would historically get a game or 2, as might Mitchell, though realistically I had Mitchell as a lower chance to play in 2014 than whoever we draft with our first 3 ND picks. Swap Mitchell and Perris into Draftee 1 + 2 if you like.

No but my point Swansfan is that you categorise the four players thus:

Then we can add ~4 strugglers

31 - Walsh
32 - Lloyd
33 - Towers
34 - Biggs

I don't see any of those as strugglers except Tommy maybe but even he was starting to get the pace before he got injured. Lloyd is a really GOOD young player. Biggs is competent and efficient. Towers is highly skilled, fast and effective. None of them are strugglers whereas I think Lockyer has struggled a bit even at NEAFL level.

By the way Perris is super skilled and one to watch as is Lloyd. He was names in the All Australian U 18 side. He was seen as a top 20 draft choice. It is all in the article;

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s-to-rookie-deal/story-fn69a32t-1226731780193

 

[The Swans Blog]

I don't think we have as much of an issue depth-wise as a lot of people are making out. We lost Mattner & Bolton - well we didn't have Rampe before this year and he'll play the Mattner role and we have that ex-Carlton player now to backup whomever is playing that role. We had a lot of first team injuries throughout the year and it exposed our list more than many would have liked or expected. What we've learned is that we have a good half-dozen or so players that can stand up and be counted on when needed. We've brought in two players and let 3 or 4 go. We'll miss Mumford and Everitt to some extent, but we'll cope.

We're definitely 1 experienced player short, but I think that we're probably in a better position squad wise this year than last. It's not every year that injury decimates your entire defence and keeps your KPF out for 2/3'rds of the season. Not to mention Goodes going down and Mattner retiring, it really threw a spanner in the works. Had we been able to field our best team I have no doubt whatsoever that we would have gone b2b.

 

[RW]

Interesting that the year we won the flag was the year we used the least number of players. You need some depth, but keeping your best team on the field is just as important. There's probably also the factor that you want to have some stability in your line-up so that the players can develop an understanding of each other's games and the game plan. Great analysis!

In 2013, Sydney used 35 players. 8 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2012, Sydney used 31 players. 8 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2011, Sydney used 35 players. 7 of them played every game, 7 played <5 games.
In 2010, Sydney used 36 players. 8 of them played every game, 6 played <5 games.
In 2009, Sydney used 33 players. 9 of them played every game, 4 played <5 games.
In 2008, Sydney used 36 players. 8 of them played every game, 9 played <5 games.