Talks begin on Harvey's future

[Freo Blood]

All teams are going to be impacted through GC and GWS plundering the draft in coming years. We are a bit exposed but I am happy where we are at now, we could have started the rebuild one year earlier but hindsight is 20/20; we did make a prelim in 2006, you can see why the prevailing view was that we could get back there again. We were even up there as flag favourites with the bookies.
I think we have got just enough talent before GC starts to start a good run into the 8. Not sure we have the developing KP's to really challenge for a flag in 3 years or so though.
imo we are at least as well placed as:
Richmond - have to start again.
Syd - aging
Bris - aging, making a run now but have topped up with dross
N Melb - any kp's?
Port
WCE - don't rate
Essendon - KP's but no mids
all the other teams above us should in theory not have as much young talent as we do.

 

[Clay Davis]

Because in 3 seasons half of our current best 22 are going to be retired. We are just around the corner for yet another rebuild.

But it is entirely possible for us to win 10 games this year. We don't need an A grade midfielder to do this. Essendon made the finals last year without having an A grade midfielder at all.

Glad to see you've dropped "why didn't they foresee the expansion" argument. Guess your memory isn't that good.

 

[Memories]

But it is entirely possible for us to win 10 games this year. We don't need an A grade midfielder to do this. Essendon made the finals last year without having an A grade midfielder at all

Yeah Watson is a dud isn't he...

Essendon fluked their way into finals, can Freo potentially do the same? Of course. The problem is people like yourself think just because it can potentially happen that it's good chances of happening. You get confused with this concept.

I hope we do fluke something this year because after it's over all we have to look forward to is 2008 for 4-6 years. Everyone thinks just because have been rebuilding for 3 seasons that it must almost be over. But they don't understand our list at all if this is the case. Not many teams have half their best 22 retiring within 3 seasons, and most of those that do are top 4 contenders right now.

 

[Clay Davis]

Yeah Watson is a dud isn't he...

I wouldn't say dud. Finds the ball alright, but his kicking is poor and he is slow. But he is their best midfielder.

Essendon fluked their way into finals, can Freo potentially do the same? Of course. The problem is people like yourself think just because it can potentially happen that it's good chances of happening. You get confused with this concept.

Where did I say we will make finals? We can certainly achieve 10 wins. We have a strong home ground advantage and have a fairly solid spine, with minimal turnover of players from last year. 10 wins is not out of the question, it is actually a reasonable aim.

I hope we do fluke something this year because after it's over all we have to look forward to is 2008 for 4-6 years. Everyone thinks just because have been rebuilding for 3 seasons that it must almost be over. But they don't understand our list at all if this is the case. Not many teams have half their best 22 retiring within 3 seasons, and most of those that do are top 4 contenders right now.

Maybe you should read more of dom's posts. Or theGav's. Or anyone here. People are acutely aware of what confronts us. Most don't pretend that they are the only ones privy to this kind of information. And many more don't shoot down people's hopes for a good season to come. Even the pessimists hope we'll do well.

For you, Georgie, et al it is all about your opinion. No one cares.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Yep, just "one more draft"...

Then "one more draft..."

Then "one more draft...".

Its ground hog day, but with "one more draft" everything will be okay and we will somehow manage to pluck another "Pav" out of the hay stack.

It took WCE 4 drafts to get the team they needed to win one flag, lose another.

But hey, lets just all be naysayers like you.

 

[The Purple Sox]

For the record
Name (Age at 31 dec 2009)

Bulldogs Forward line:
Johnson (33)
Hall (32)
Akermanis (32)
Eagleton (31)

Adelaide Midfield
Goodwin (33)
McLeod (33)
Edwards (33)

Freo's oldest players
Grover (30)
Hayden (29)
Tarrant (29)
Headland (29)
Pavlich (28)
McPharlin (28)
Hasleby (28)
Sandilands (27)


But sure, memories COULD be right.
retirements COULD destroy us...

it doesn't take long on google to find proof of a good argument.
a bad argument, however...

 

[Memories]

I wouldn't say dud. Finds the ball alright, but his kicking is poor and he is slow. But he is their best midfielder.

Stats suggest he was in the best 15 midfielders last year, putting him easily into A class for that year.

Where did I say we will make finals? We can certainly achieve 10 wins. We have a strong home ground advantage and have a fairly solid spine, with minimal turnover of players from last year. 10 wins is not out of the question, it is actually a reasonable aim.

"Aim to" -"not out of the question" - "can certainly achieve".

How likely is it to you that we will win 10 games? We should be aiming to win the grand final, you can say a reasonable season for us may be ten wins but this has nothing to do with expected output.

So the question, how likely is it that Freo will win 10 games in 2010? Put it in a percentage. I'd put anything over 8wins at 20% . Under 9 wins would be 80% .

 

[Clay Davis]

Stats suggest he was in the best 15 midfielders last year, putting him easily into A class for that year.

What stats - possessions? I said he could find the ball. But he has little hurt factor. As I said.

(BTW - Hasleby only had 10 fewer possessions for the year)

Aside from that, last year was the only season he played at that level. Anyone looking at Essendon's list would have reached similar conclusions as you are with ours. Unless you're going to indulge in more revisionism.

"Aim to" -"not out of the question" - "can certainly achieve".

How likely is it to you that we will win 10 games? We should be aiming to win the grand final, you can say a reasonable season for us may be ten wins but this has nothing to do with expected output.

So the question, how likely is it that Freo will win 10 games in 2010? Put it in a percentage. I'd put anything over 8wins at 20% . Under 9 wins would be 80% .

To finish with 10 wins: 14% chance.

 

[Belnakor]

Freo's oldest players
Grover (30) - gone
Hayden (29) - gone
Tarrant (29) - gone
Headland (29) - gone
Pavlich (28) - stay
McPharlin (28) - gone
Hasleby (28) - 50/50
Sandilands (27) - stay

in 3 years time...

 

[Belnakor]

We were done by young legs in the second half of many games last year.

wow thats funny - i thought we were playing the kids? guess not.

 

[Belnakor]

It took WCE 4 drafts to get the team they needed to win one flag, lose another..

in 4 drafts they got cox, kerr, cousins and judd? Musta been a couple of fertile years. The Eagles flag was 6-7 years of drafting and a couple of fluke picks.

 

[Memories]

For the record
Name (Age at 31 dec 2009)


But sure, memories COULD be right.
retirements COULD destroy us...

What does this prove? Did I say we have the oldest list?

The reason the next 3 seasons are going to destroy us is because most of our older players are in our best 22 meaning we have to find replacements for them. We also didn't make the finals last year like those two teams did, so basically we have a s**t side that you are comparing to top 4 teams that are about to decline within the next few years. Yay for us.

The fact you didn't see this when you posted is beyond me.

it doesn't take long on google to find proof of a good argument.
a bad argument, however...

Haha, too young.

 

[The Purple Sox]

in 3 years time...

everyone over 27 is it?

lets look at geelong then:
Rooke goneChapman gone
Enright goneLing goneOttens goneWojcinski goneMooney goneScarlett goneMilburn gone

man. they screwed.
lets try the saints...

Blake goneHayes goneBaker goneMilne goneGardiner goneKing gone

wow. an with reiwoldt, fisher and Kosi all in that troublesom 27yrs-old slot they might be in a bit of trouble too...

gee with all these retirements over the next 3 years, clay, it might be handy to have a few 18,19, and 20 year olds.

what's that? we have 15 players under 20yrs-old?
geez. good thinking who-ever our coach is.

anyway, I digress. back to topic.
Mark Harvey is worthless. He's traded away all our youth for older player.
look at McPhee.
MCPHEE!!!!
and Mark Johnson. He was old.

 

[Belnakor]

everyone over 27 is it?

lets look at geelong then:
Rooke goneChapman gone
Enright goneLing goneOttens goneWojcinski goneMooney goneScarlett goneMilburn gone

man. they screwed.

yeah cept they just won 2 of the last 3 premierships and didn't finish in the bottom 3 two years in a row.

 

[Memories]

Looks like another kid is finding out about the cyclical nature of AFL football. Learning is goooood.

 

[Bradesmaen]

in 4 drafts they got cox, kerr, cousins and judd? Musta been a couple of fertile years. The Eagles flag was 6-7 years of drafting and a couple of fluke picks.

Two down years in a row in 2000 and 2001 got them Judd, Kerr, Seaby and Hansen. Followed in 2002 by Chick (via trade for a low pick) and Selwood, with Waters and Butler in 2003. That is a fair chunk of the guts of that team. Argue all you want about some of those players being s**t or whatever, but they each played their important role and were drafted in that 4 years. Also in 1999 they took Glass, Hunter and Cox. So the 2005/6 GF teams were built from 5 drafts.

 

[heypenny]

in 4 drafts they got cox, kerr, cousins and judd? Musta been a couple of fertile years. The Eagles flag was 6-7 years of drafting and a couple of fluke picks.

What i think he means is the period between their 1999 and 2001 drafts..

Three drafts picking up Darren Glass, Adam Hunter, Daniel Kerr, Dean Cox and Chris Judd..

Six years? 1997 and 98 only brought Rowan Jones and 2002 got them Adam Selwood. The three years in the middle really made them. Cousins came long before in 95

 

[Clay Davis]

We completely burned the drafts from 2004-2006. There is no getting away from that. Whatever we drafted from 2007 onwards isn't going to fix that problem.

Memories, you won't be coaching any AFL team. Get off the cocaine.

 

[The Purple Sox]

funny you should mention cycles, memories, I was just remembering when Collingwood dumped Leigh Matthews in 1995.
The Collingwood tribe reckoned he didn't get enough wins on the board in the 1995 season.

 

[heypenny]

Brads got in their first

 

[dominguez]

Mark. Not Michael.

I am warning you all that the club is at a tipping point.

We have not even reached Round 1 and already supporters have the scent of blood in their nostrils. You might doubt it - but wait and see what happens if we drop the first 3 games.

I think you're wrong there. It threatened to get ugly 4 or 5 years ago when supporters knew that there was plenty of talent and experience at the club yet we were struggling to make the finals.

You won't see supporters hanging over the fence giving it to Harvey like they did with Connolly and Schwab because I think the majority of people expect 8-10 wins this year. Sure 5/6 wins will be disappointing, but with the majority not expecting finals the reception will be much less hostile.

 

[dominguez]

This wont be at all popular, but Michael Johnson is a terrible defender UNLESS he is the lose man in defence. Any game where it has gone man on man for a an extended period of time, he almost single handedly loses the game for us. Overall, I would much rather him either on a wing or up forward.

If Tarrant and Hayden aren't at the club next year I wouldn't be surprised to see us go back to the zone defence.

Johnson, Mundy, Broughton, Duffield and Suban all read the play well down back but none of them are your old fashioned defensive stoppers. Take out Tarrant, Grover and Hayden and our backline still looks strong but it's short on actual "defenders".

 

[dominguez]

Some of us can see it. But if as I predict we are bottom 6 again this year. What exactly are we hoping to happen as all our superstars retire during this coming expansion?

I agree with you that we're in for some years of mediocrity as our blokes pushing 30 retire. But does the introduction of new clubs work in our favour?

St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Geelong have had late picks the last couple of years and have also traded some picks, so if you assume they'll also have late picks in the next couple of years that brings them back to the pack from say 2013 and beyond.

Are we placing our clubs fortunes on our first pick, pick 20+ in the next draft and hoping he is going to turn into an elite player? I've been warning people here for years now that we needed to act and nothing major has been done.

I'm pretty sure you said earlier that we won't win 10 games this year (correct me if I'm wrong).

So lets say we win 7 games and finish 13th. That would give us pick ten in this years draft, which is still a handy selection (GC have picks 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 etc making picks 4 6 8 10 12 etc "live picks")

At least the next coach won't have much pressure placed on him to perform with a young list and no hope of improving it greatly for 4+ years. Might as well get another dud coach in to see us through that era so we can get rid of him when(if) the team comes good?

I hope you're taking the piss there?

Every club except for possibly Melbourne will have quality players retiring between now and 2014 so aslong as the FFC manage the list well and have the right coaching staff at the helm we can be contenders 4 or 5 years from now.

 

[dominguez]

Describe to me how the last 2 off-season's are not a clean out?

Grover
Thornton
Dodd
Murphy
Solomon
Headland

If those 6 guys were chpped at the end of '09 how many would have been picked up in the PSD?

 

[Memories]

Every club except for possibly Melbourne will have quality players retiring between now and 2014 so aslong as the FFC manage the list well and have the right coaching staff at the helm we can be contenders 4 or 5 years from now.

I'd like to be in Hawthorns position with a young list and a lot of talent. They are going to be up there fighting for top 4 over next 4+ seasons and then recover when picks are worth something again. How can a team that won a grandfinal in 2008 be placed to ride out the next 4+ years better than us?

Ahhh one day... one day.