- Mar 16, 2002
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I'm interested in the BRICS bank and whether they can move away from the USD in trading oil etc...
The Price of Oil and history repeating?
- Thread starter GarnerSmash
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I'm interested in the BRICS bank and whether they can move away from the USD in trading oil etc...
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I am normally a person who backs their judgement and simply live with the outcome. In this market I will simply watch and wait, as I am very uncertain. Part of that uncertainty relates to my next post.
At the moment I would suggest the wait could be 9 months but it could be shorter or longer. I will be ready to go when the time is right.
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I have posted previously that I feel this is simply a cost curve issue and a return to long term pricing of a cost plus model for the highest cost producers on the curve. When this happens the pendulum always swings further than it should because it is amplified by the closing out of derivatives.
Yesterday afternoon I had a catch up with one of the biggest US PE funds run by ex Enron guys. Having circa $50b under their belt and backed by Swiss, US, Chinese, Middle Eastern and Russian $ they have a very interesting insight into the geo-political world. Their view was this was a pure Saudi play, in an attempt to keep US foreign policy in the middle east by remaining strategic and relevant. I am still not 100% convinced but this came from a group that is credible and connected.
Let's give this another 60 days.
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Mofra
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Interesting reading in the context of some of the posts in this thread:
http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-lost-economic-war-with-west-rouble-currency
http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-lost-economic-war-with-west-rouble-currency
Freo2012
Premiership Player
China has some significant economic issues atm, relating to credit and regulation. I think given the world economic climate the USD still has a fair way to go, but there will be a great time to make a move from USD to RMB.
2015 will be a VERY interesting year.
edit:
Bloomberg sometimes has some good articles for a generic MSM site, here's a couple today
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...stage-for-energy-defaults-credit-markets.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...who-remembers-1998-says-prepare-for-pain.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...u-ve-never-heard-of-that-could-ruin-2015.html
Given the world economic situation IMO now is definitely not the time to be playing geopolitical economic power games for resource/people control - the cost will be far too high to all - IMO we are only one significant crisis away from extremely serious trouble, oil price could be it if it continues down and for long enough and my bet is Russia won't back down on its stance over Ukraine anytime soon - I think they will ride it out and all hell will break lose later in 2015.
Last edited:
- Oct 20, 2014
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Servos have no control over the price. The nominated price comes from HO and it has to be that price by a set time. The price will stay the same until the next change is sent through. This could be within hours, days, weeks, etc.
Danny Cullen
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I've heard that most servos make bugger all money out of fuel. They rely on people buying other stuff when they pay for their fuel. That's why they are all mini-marts nowadays.
- Oct 20, 2014
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Yep. Servos at times even loose money on the fuel they sell.
Trade between Turkey and Russia is already worth tens of billions. With new agreements, and with the gas pipeline deal, it'll grow substantially.
Turkey is trying to break free of the US dominance that Europe and other parts of the world are under. It's trying to set it's own foreign policy and it's own path, to look after it's own interests. It's like walking a tight rope in that region, because they've seen first hand what happens when you stray from the path of US interests too much.
You are right about Ukraine. The whole point is to bypass Ukraine as a transit country for Russian gas/oil.
Ukraine is unreliable as far as the Russian's are concerned. Unpaid bills, stopping transport of gas onwards to the rest of Europe. So the Russian's will find alternatives and freeze Ukraine out.
Russia wont undergo a colour revolution and fall under western control. We are in a new Cold War, people better get used to that fact.
Georgia in 2008, Syria and Ukraine now, Iran ongoing..these are the first proxies of the new Cold War. The US and it's allies have ratcheted things up significantly now by attacking the Russian economy. There will be a Russian response.
Remember we aren't dealing with a drunk Boris Yeltsin anymore, but a typical Russian strongman in Putin, who unlike Obama was schooled during the Cold War and knows very well what tactics and strategies the US will use against him and Russia.
If the Americans think they can achieve a revolution in Russia they are delusional I think. They've got as much chance of causing a revolution there as the Russian's do in America. Zilch.
Putin is widely popular in Russia, don't believe all the negative spin we see in our media about him.
He's viewed as the man whose pulled Russia out of the abyss and saved it. He isn't going anywhere any time soon. And even if he stepped down or retired from politics, we aren't exactly going to be thrilled with his successors who will maintain the hardline and pro-Russian interests policies, as any responsible leader of a country should.
The Russian's and Chinese I believe are preparing to stop trading in USD between each other, using their own currencies instead.
What we are seeing is the emergence of a multi-polar world again, and the US and it's allies fighting to stop it because it will threaten US hegemony in the world.
I don't think the Russian's and Chinese, and BRICS to a lesser extent, haven't anticipated all this, and are prepared for it.
My bet..the Russian's will be fine. Their economy will recover and then some. These trade deals they are making aren't a short term vision, but long term. The economic war being waged against Russia is short term and can't be sustained for too long before it starts to seriously cripple those waging it. As a result of this new cold war we will see more wars. Definitely more proxy wars like we've already seen. Especially if the US/West keeps meddling in Russia's neighborhood with former Soviet republics.
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China is bipolar at the moment as on one hand they want to reduce their foreign fx and reliance on US denominated currency, they are moving away from backing Chinese fund managers and Chinese managed companies in favour of local management teams or international management teams.
Freo2012
Premiership Player
have been studying China very closely for the last 15+ years, primarily in relation to development and resource demand. You will know all this, but for benefit of others. The earth has never experienced the scale of urbanisation and industrialisation/modernisation that China has been experiencing, and it is still very much early in its journey. Apart from what many like to proclaim are manipulated growth numbers with much false data (even empty cities) the vast majority of the phenomenon is reality. It is also why Oz was so insulated from the initial GFC effects (true delayed effects still to come home to roost IMO) and thus most of the Oz economy has been living in somewhat of a false economic "paradise" during this time with many not knowledgeable or experienced in the real cyclical effects of economics.
China does have some serious growth problems right now - in credit, financial regulation and property bubbles - but understandable given their development. Purely "hiccups" (though some serious) on their development path. Whilst Oz might not enjoy quite the same resource demand path projection in the future it has experienced from China, the continuing development of China (with the respective blips along the path) and increasing wealth of significantly growing middle class does mean we will never return to the base levels prior to this and will continue to benefit from that economically for the very long term (all other things excluded
).The biggest thing that everyone should realize is that China's GDP is roughly equal to the US now, though makeup very different. Yet China will in future decades be several magnitudes greater in size than the US. There is no stopping this (unless literally WW3 and extreme population decrease) and the powers that be know this. The BRIC's have a massive future, each with their different unique facets (resources - natural, people and tech) - tide is turning inevitably (as it always does) and cannot without the most extreme actions be stopped (or significantly delayed). That is why we live in one of the most dangerous times - geopolitical power plays for organisational control of the world's resources (future economic power/wealth).
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have been studying China very closely for the last 15+ years, primarily in relation to development and resource demand. You will know all this, but for benefit of others. The earth has never experienced the scale of urbanisation and industrialisation/modernisation that China has been experiencing, and it is still very much early in its journey. Apart from what many like to proclaim are manipulated growth numbers with much false data (even empty cities) the vast majority of the phenomenon is reality. It is also why Oz was so insulated from the initial GFC effects (true delayed effects still to come home to roost IMO) and thus most of the Oz economy has been living in somewhat of a false economic "paradise" during this time with many not knowledgeable or experienced in the real cyclical effects of economics.
China does have some serious growth problems right now - in credit, financial regulation and property bubbles - but understandable given their development. Purely "hiccups" (though some serious) on their development path. Whilst Oz might not enjoy quite the same resource demand path projection in the future it has experienced from China, the continuing development of China (with the respective blips along the path) and increasing wealth of significantly growing middle class does mean we will never return to the base levels prior to this and will continue to benefit from that economically for the very long term (all other things excluded
The biggest thing that everyone should realize is that China's GDP is roughly equal to the US now, though makeup very different. Yet China will in future decades be several magnitudes greater in size than the US. There is no stopping this (unless literally WW3 and extreme population decrease) and the powers that be know this. The BRIC's have a massive future, each with their different unique facets (resources - natural, people and tech) - tide is turning inevitably (as it always does) and cannot without the most extreme actions be stopped (or significantly delayed). That is why we live in one of the most dangerous times - geopolitical power plays for organisational control of the world's resources (future economic power/wealth).
I have been with with Beijing for the last 6 months with a non ferrous department looking at long term energy solutions.
China's concerns are not just external but the most dangerous "internal". Whenever a nation has internal problems, they try and vent that negative energy against another nation. I just question when and where.
I feel they may get through this period providing they keep clamping down on the fraud, corruption, unpaid taxes, off shore wealth harbouring and the overt wealth disparity.
but at some stage they won't be able to contain the issue and that's why I think 2020s will be very interesting times.
I saw a program once on how China was literally moving mountains. Or more precisely, bringing down entire mountains to make way for whatever they are building. Never seen anything like it. About the closest thing we would see in the Western world is part of a hill/mountainside being carved away to make way for a highway or road, but nothing on the scale of what China is doing.
floodbuster
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Unleaded down to $1.11 in some parts and now talk of a price war.
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/cheap-oil-will-destroy-costly-renewables.html
The benchmark U.S. oil price settled 2 cents higher at $55.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as low as $53.90 a barrel and as high as $57.15 a barrel in the session.
Brent crude, a global price gauge, settled down 2% at $59.86 a barrel, its lowest settlement since May 19, 2009. (Link)
This is good news for consumers but bad news for Alarmists and Politicians pushing the Falsified AGW hypothesis.
The Independent Weekly laments the fall:
The collapsing oil price that is reshaping the global economy could derail the green energy revolution by making renewable power sources prohibitively bad value, experts have warned.
A new “era of cheap oil” would be good news for consumers and motorists – but analysts say the consequences for politics, industry and the climate could be even more radical.However, cheap energy from coal has not had the same effect of keeping prices down.
“Renewable energy subsidies have been mostly sold to the public on the basis of the economic benefits,” said Peter Atherton, an energy analyst with Liberum Capital. “But the economic arguments hinged on the idea that fossil fuel prices would get more expensive, while expensive renewable subsidies would be able to come down over time. That’s looking doubtful now.”Although the Independent says: "the consequences for ...... the climate could be even more radical," it has been shown that, for this century atmospheric CO2 has risen by almost 30%, there has been a slight fall in global temperature.
The benchmark U.S. oil price settled 2 cents higher at $55.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as low as $53.90 a barrel and as high as $57.15 a barrel in the session.
Brent crude, a global price gauge, settled down 2% at $59.86 a barrel, its lowest settlement since May 19, 2009. (Link)
This is good news for consumers but bad news for Alarmists and Politicians pushing the Falsified AGW hypothesis.
The Independent Weekly laments the fall:
The collapsing oil price that is reshaping the global economy could derail the green energy revolution by making renewable power sources prohibitively bad value, experts have warned.
A new “era of cheap oil” would be good news for consumers and motorists – but analysts say the consequences for politics, industry and the climate could be even more radical.However, cheap energy from coal has not had the same effect of keeping prices down.
“Renewable energy subsidies have been mostly sold to the public on the basis of the economic benefits,” said Peter Atherton, an energy analyst with Liberum Capital. “But the economic arguments hinged on the idea that fossil fuel prices would get more expensive, while expensive renewable subsidies would be able to come down over time. That’s looking doubtful now.”Although the Independent says: "the consequences for ...... the climate could be even more radical," it has been shown that, for this century atmospheric CO2 has risen by almost 30%, there has been a slight fall in global temperature.
- Mar 16, 2002
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lots of things happening now.... China backing the ruoble.... the EU not sure what they are doing. Scary times ahead me thinks.
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I bet they arent building suburbs in prime farming land like we are.....
- Mar 16, 2002
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I think the problem is with you thinking it's sustainable to drive 92ks a day...
well considering
A) there's * all jobs out here
B) here's * all public transport
what choice do i have? Join centrelink like the other half of western sydney?
I go where the work is.
people from up and down the coast drive alot ******* further on their commute as well. not working is far more unsustainable.
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One thing I'll give the Sauds is they are crafty buggers. They know they have oil and fu&* all else so are attempting to keep the US entangled in their web. They know conditions are against them right now so will take a short term hit on the basis the US's push for other alternatives of fuel aren't really going anywhere. Their main game is to hurt the Ruskies in the process as they are the real competition.
Interesting what the US are trying to do. I think they want out of the Middle East and all their bullshit (why else did they all of a sudden wheel Bin Laden's corpse out as a pretext to conjure a win out of Afghanistan) but don't yet have the resources and production for their own energy.
China seem to be in the box seat buying their way through Africa and International markets yet have massive internal issues that need sorting as well as how to build an internal economy to launch a base.
Have a guess which country could benefit enomoursly from this and actually be a world leader in raw mineral development and using renewable and more efficient sources of energy? In essence run the whole show but are too stupid following others into proven failed endevours and will instead be needlessly sucked into another foreign war. Only this time WW3.
Interesting what the US are trying to do. I think they want out of the Middle East and all their bullshit (why else did they all of a sudden wheel Bin Laden's corpse out as a pretext to conjure a win out of Afghanistan) but don't yet have the resources and production for their own energy.
China seem to be in the box seat buying their way through Africa and International markets yet have massive internal issues that need sorting as well as how to build an internal economy to launch a base.
Have a guess which country could benefit enomoursly from this and actually be a world leader in raw mineral development and using renewable and more efficient sources of energy? In essence run the whole show but are too stupid following others into proven failed endevours and will instead be needlessly sucked into another foreign war. Only this time WW3.
