THE RUN HOME...

[marklovesbeer]

I was going to put this up after out game Sunday evening but it's pretty quiet behind the bar at work on the Indian Pacific. We've just left Sydney & are cruising through the Blue Mountains.

So, the run home.
Interested to see how people are feeling about not just where we currently sit (most would say we deserve to be about eighth on the ladder), but also where they think we will end up.

With supposedly an 'easier' draw this season, there has still been some tricky parts including games away, multiple trips out west & six day breaks.

We have won some games most would have penciled in as losses before the season started & lost matches we 'should have' won.

Considering the players we have to come back in & the potential of many playing below their best level, will the team improve a lot, not much, or continue to (in some peoples opinion) continue to disappoint?

Will our run home allow us to finish in the eight? Could we push for top 4, or is that chance gone now? And if we do play finals could we turn it around & be a serious contender or will we just be there making up the numbers.

Interested to see what people genuinely think now that they've had a chance to cool off a bit since the loss down in Geelong.

Wins/Losses/Games that could go either way & where will we finish on the ladder come the final siren in Round 23.

Our run home:

Round 11 West Coast AWAY
12 Richmond HOME
13 Adelaide AWAY
14 Melbourne AWAY
15 Brisbane AWAY
16 Hawthorn HOME
17 St Kilda HOME
18 Carlton AWAY
19 Geelong HOME
20 Greater Western Sydney AWAY
21 Footscray HOME
22 Adelaide HOME
23 Melbourne HOME

 

[Spitter9]

would be very disappointed if we didn't collect at least 9 wins in that run home. So i have us finishing about 14-15 wins and about 6th on the ladder.

 

[Event Horizon]

According to my calculations, after we get through the next 3 weeks which includes 2 tricky road trips, the final 10 games should really result in a 8:2 win/loss ratio. The losses being to Hawthorn and Geelong, but given both are at Etihad, we should be some chance in both. The other games are all must wins, with Carlton and Adelaide at home being the most difficult ones, but both must be won if we are serious about finals.

So if we assume that 8:2 is a reasonable expectation from the final 10 rounds, this means if we win just 1 from the next 3, it should give us 14 wins in the end. However, I still regard the WC game as huge, as we don't want to be going into the Richmond game under huge pressure. We really need to win this weekend, and that should more or less take care of our finals credentials. If we can win 2 of the 3, top 4 will be some chance. Although I suspect 16 wins may be required for that.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

11 wins. Will drop the Hawks game and one other, probably Adelaide away.

 

[Event Horizon]

11 wins. Will drop the Hawks game and one other, probably Adelaide away.

I like your confidence. But the next 3 games are too hard to predict for me (even the Richmond game), which is why I based my prediction solely on the last 10, and separated the next 3 out.

If we beat the Eagles, then you may well be proven correct.

 

[Jay-Z]

We've been hard to predict so far so I won't try to tip game by game but I expect us to win at least another 9 games and finish somewhere between 14 and 16 wins.

However, Geelong, Hawthorn, Port and Freo all have favourable enough draws (or are far enough in front already) that they should finish above us so I doubt we'll be top 4 without a 2012 style mid-season turn around

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

I like your confidence. But the next 3 games are too hard to predict for me (even the Richmond game), which is why I based my prediction solely on the last 10, and separated the next 3 out.

If we beat the Eagles, then you may well be proven correct.

It does kind of hinge on that. I just think they are lacking a bit of confidence at the moment, especially when there is some expectation. But they should know they can win at Subiaco now and West Coast are frankly pants at the moment, so I'm hoping winning that and backing it up against the Tiges will inspire them to play with more confidence.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

lets just take it week by week. The way we are playing at the moment we will beat adelaide away then lose to the demons at home

 

[floss_7]

lets just take it week by week. The way we are playing at the moment we will beat adelaide away then lose to the demons at home

That's scary

 

[Dirty_11]

Can only see us getting better as the season progresses:

- Only Ben10, Boomer, Levi and Gibbo have improved on last year. Some have stagnated and most have gone backwards. Going to assume a lot of these blokes will run into form. NDS and L-Mac have been good also.
- Wells will be back and Spitta will only get better.
- Confident that we will find a balance with our game plan, be more attacking and shut it down defensively when required. I can't see this happening overnight which has me worried about our next 3 weeks.

If we can win our next 3 top 4 is still a big chance, any less and its 5th-8th for us.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

lets just take it week by week. The way we are playing at the moment we will beat adelaide away then lose to the demons at home

I know it'll happen one day, but I really will lose my s**t when we finally lose to the GoDees.

 

[koshari]

pretty much agree with most of the tips here, 5th to 8th likely outcome with possibly 4 more losses. wouldn’t surprise me if we knocked off a big scalp only to fall to another cellar dweller. prolly the Dees , Carlton or the Doggies.

 

[Dingster]

We should beat Richmond and Carlton like we should have beaten Essenscum and Gold Coast. The old motto of one week at a time has never rung truer.

 

[naturally north]

View attachment 59056
I was going to put this up after out game Sunday evening but it's pretty quiet behind the bar at work on the Indian Pacific. We've just left Sydney & are cruising through the Blue Mountains.


Round 11 West Coast AWAY
12 Richmond HOME
13 Adelaide AWAY
14 Melbourne AWAY
15 Brisbane AWAY
16 Hawthorn HOME
17 St Kilda HOME
18 Carlton AWAY
19 Geelong HOME
20 Greater Western Sydney AWAY
21 Footscray HOME
22 Adelaide HOME
23 Melbourne HOME

Firstly......












thanks for that, anywho...

I think we'll beat the WCE.

Ditto for Geelong at Etihad.

Probably Hawthorn and Adelaide away could cause problems.

But apart from that we should be right in all the other games, I don't think we've hit our straps yet.

15-16 wins for me.

 

[astrovic]

The good - and bad - thing about our run home is how flat the flat track becomes.

Good because we get the opportunity to bank a bunch of premiership points and make the finals - hopefully we can manage to do so well before round 23 for a change and actually start tuning up for finals during August like a real finals team.

Bad because we get to develop our inner Matty Hayden and get awesome at smashing s**t teams, which is basically useless come September.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Can't get over that Gold Coast sit third on the ladder.

 

[Devil Fish]

According to my calculations, after we get through the next 3 weeks which includes 2 tricky road trips, the final 10 games should really result in a 8:2 win/loss ratio. The losses being to Hawthorn and Geelong, but given both are at Etihad, we should be some chance in both. The other games are all must wins, with Carlton and Adelaide at home being the most difficult ones, but both must be won if we are serious about finals.

So if we assume that 8:2 is a reasonable expectation from the final 10 rounds, this means if we win just 1 from the next 3, it should give us 14 wins in the end. However, I still regard the WC game as huge, as we don't want to be going into the Richmond game under huge pressure. We really need to win this weekend, and that should more or less take care of our finals credentials. If we can win 2 of the 3, top 4 will be some chance. Although I suspect 16 wins may be required for that.

Gotta be mad to try to predict our season. Beating Freo & Syd away, losing to Ess, Coll & GC.......... who knows what the hell we'll dish up for the rest of the year???? Anywhere from 3rd to 13th is about as much as one could predict with any sort of confidence.

 

[QueenslandRoo]

How I see the run home ...

LOSE - 11 West Coast AWAY
WIN - 12 Richmond HOME
LOSE - 13 Adelaide AWAY
WIN - 14 Melbourne AWAY
WIN - 15 Brisbane AWAY
LOSE - 16 Hawthorn HOME
WIN - 17 St Kilda HOME
WIN - 18 Carlton AWAY
LOSE - 19 Geelong HOME
WIN - 20 Greater Western Sydney AWAY
WIN - 21 Footscray HOME
LOSE - 22 Adelaide HOME
WIN - 23 Melbourne HOME

So by my reckoning, we win another 8 games and finish the season with 13 wins. We end up 7th or 8th and are well beaten in an Elimination Final. We all then move over to the Port Adelaide board and cheer them on to a stunning 1-point Grand Final win against Sydney. You know it makes sense.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

How I see the run home ...

LOSE - 11 West Coast AWAY
WIN - 12 Richmond HOME
LOSE - 13 Adelaide AWAY
WIN - 14 Melbourne AWAY
WIN - 15 Brisbane AWAY
LOSE - 16 Hawthorn HOME
WIN - 17 St Kilda HOME
WIN - 18 Carlton AWAY
LOSE - 19 Geelong HOME
WIN - 20 Greater Western Sydney AWAY
WIN - 21 Footscray HOME
LOSE - 22 Adelaide HOME
WIN - 23 Melbourne HOME

So by my reckoning, we win another 8 games and finish the season with 13 wins. We end up 7th or 8th and are well beaten in an Elimination Final. We all then move over to the Port Adelaide board and cheer them on to a stunning 1-point Grand Final win against Sydney. You know it makes sense.

I'd predict close to that, except I'd give us a good chance against Geelong and Crows at Docklands. If we can keep holding losses to manageable size and banking bigger wins when they are on offer, who knows where that could leave us.

I'm much more comfortable predicting across the next few months than I am guessing how this weekend will go.

 

[Blanket_melb]

As daunting as it looks, and trying to pick norths form. This part of the season should all be about 2013 redemption against most of those clubs.

 

[bengrina]

I think the next 3 weeks will tell us where we finish. Given our list and expectation if we don't manage to beat the eagles tigers and crows we aren't where a lot of us thought we were. I'd love to finish top 6 and get that home final we have seemed to be waiting for for too long now. Time to f**king deliver !

 

[Roo-Boy]

18 wins 4 losses by round 23 as my signiture now doesn't look like it will to become a reality

 

[koshari]

Can't get over that Gold Coast sit third on the ladder.

why?

 

[Marstermind]

I was hoping that this thread was about how the players went about the punishment Brad dealt out on Friday night coming back up the Geelong Freeway. But unfortunately it's only inviting speculation about how the team will go over the next 14 weeks when no one can pick what they'll do in 14 minutes time.

 

[Heaps of fun]

why?

It's a depressing reality I refuse to accept.