Tour De France 2013 Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine - Gap 168km

[Freakie]

Following a rest day in the Vaucluse, the GC contenders may fancy a quiet day before the time trial 24 hours later. However, all will remember how complicated the finish of this stage proved to be in 2011, particularly for the Schleck brothers. In theory, this stage should provide a final chance for the baroudeurs. Two of the day's three second-category climbs come early. If the GC riders do sit back, the break should build up a substantial, perhaps insurmountable, lead going over them, as the race leaves the Drôme for the department of Hautes-Alpes. The key to success/staying out of trouble lies on the Col de la Manse. Two years ago, Cadel Evans and Alberto Contador torched the Schlecks' hopes, attacking hard on the climb, then pressing even harder on the tricky descent made treacherous by rain. Ryder Hesjedal was also prominent that day, helping to set up his then Garmin-Cervélo team-mate Thor Hushovd for victory over fellow Norwegian Edvald Boasson Hagen.

 

[Vader]

Fond memories of the Col de Manse.. It was the day that Andy Schleck officially lost the 2011 Tour de France to Cadel Evans.

It's also the descent where Armstrong made his famous cross-country detour, to avoid a fallen rider.

 

[mcgarnacle]

not just any fallen rider - jose beloki

 

[happy_eagle]

This may be one of the last chances for a french rider to get a stage win, as the breakaway will be a good chance to win on the descent.
Look out for all the usual suspects (Chavanel, Voeckler, Rolland)

GC wise, I expect Sky to nurse Froome over all three climbs knowing that he will further create time gaps in the TT tomorrow

 

[monty1104]

I reckon Cadel and Gilbert may try to get a stage win for BMC here. It's a good stage for them, and BMC have done SFA so far this tour. They're both far enough behind to be given some leeway too.

 

[Belnakor]

I reckon Cadel and Gilbert may try to get a stage win for BMC here. It's a good stage for them, and BMC have done SFA so far this tour. They're both far enough behind to be given some leeway too.

Would be nice to see Cadel not sit in the middle of the pack all day and get dropped half way through the climb like he has every climb this year.

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

Contador to go all Fuente De on the peloton's arses. Failing that, hopefully it rains and some pressure is put on the descent for GC as the breakaway wins.​

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ALSO, for the next few stages let's try and keep doping talk out of the race threads and in the doping thread:​

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http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/tdf-doping-thread.960978/​

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Contador to go all Fuente De on the peloton's arses. Failing that, hopefully it rains and some pressure is put on the descent for GC as the breakaway wins.

Yep - some rain would be great to spice things up!

Still remember Jens coming off hard twice on a descent a few years back and just jumping back on his bike .

 

[RU486]

Yeah wouldn't be suprised if Sky is put under a fair bit of pressure tonight. Hoping Contador will attack hard.

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

He will go crazy soon. Hasn't attacked once all Tour, except for the echelon. It is coming and it will either be magnificent or depressing when freaking Belkin chase it down and Sky don't even have to do anything.

 

[Vader]

Got a feeling that Cadel might have a go on the last Cat 2, with fond memories from 2011. It's late enough in the race that any time he might gain won't be a threat to anyone, so there would be no reason for anyone to chase him down. They could well let him go. One last hurrah before the curtain closes on his Tour career (at least as a team leader).

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

I wish he had done the Vuelta. I know it is the 100th Tour, but it is sad seeing the champ ride like this, especially after showing in the Giro he can still compete when he has the form.

 

[Belnakor]

Got a feeling that Cadel might have a go on the last Cat 2, with fond memories from 2011. It's late enough in the race that any time he might gain won't be a threat to anyone, so there would be no reason for anyone to chase him down. They could well let him go. One last hurrah before the curtain closes on his Tour career (at least as a team leader).

15 minutes off the pace so they should let him go. Question is does he have the juice. He has cracked on every single climb this tour so i'm thinking probably not.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Thoughts on these head to heads:

Izaguirre ($1.61) vs Izagirre ($2.20)
Fedrigo ($2) vs Albasini ($1.75)
Froome ($1.53) vs Contador ($2.37)
D.Martin ($2.75) vs B.Mollema ($1.40)
Kruizieger ($1.53) vs Quintana ($2.37)
Rodriguez ($1.53) vs Poels ($2.37)
Valverde ($1.83) vs Cadel ($1.83)
Fuglsang ($1.61) vs C-Peraud ($2.20)
Ten Dam ($1.66) vs Nieve ($2.10)
Rolland ($3) vs Bardet ($1.36)
Moreno ($3.40) vs Kwiatkowski ($1.30)
Serpa ($1.61) vs Dupont ($2.20)
A.Schleck ($2.37) vs Navarro ($1.53)
Monfort ($1.72) vs Talansky ($2)
Mederel ($2.10) vs Morabito ($1.66)
Chavanel ($1.53) vs Velits ($2.37)
Anton ($1.50) vs Gadret ($2.50)
Gilbert ($1.44) vs Gerrans ($2.62)
Gavazzi ($1.57) vs Gasparotto ($2.37)
Hoogerland ($1.72) vs De Gendt ($2)

 

[monty1104]

Thoughts on these head to heads:

Izaguirre ($1.61) vs Izagirre ($2.20) well, whichever one is Jon
Fedrigo ($2) vs Albasini ($1.75)
Froome ($1.53) vs Contador ($2.37)
D.Martin ($2.75) vs B.Mollema ($1.40)
Kruizieger ($1.53) vs Quintana ($2.37)
Rodriguez ($1.53) vs Poels ($2.37)
Valverde ($1.83) vs Cadel ($1.83)
Fuglsang ($1.61) vs C-Peraud ($2.20)
Ten Dam ($1.66) vs Nieve ($2.10)
Rolland ($3) vs Bardet ($1.36)
Moreno ($3.40) vs Kwiatkowski ($1.30)
Serpa ($1.61) vs Dupont ($2.20)
A.Schleck ($2.37) vs Navarro ($1.53)
Monfort ($1.72) vs Talansky ($2)
Mederel ($2.10) vs Morabito ($1.66)
Chavanel ($1.53) vs Velits ($2.37)
Anton ($1.50) vs Gadret ($2.50)
Gilbert ($1.44) vs Gerrans ($2.62)
Gavazzi ($1.57) vs Gasparotto ($2.37)
Hoogerland ($1.72) vs De Gendt ($2)

Those are my opinions, however I'd steer clear of a lot of them. All the ones with the GC contenders (well podium contenders now) against each other will be a real roll of the dice. They should all cross the line together IMO, so it just comes down to who rolls over first.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Those are my opinions, however I'd steer clear of a lot of them. All the ones with the GC contenders (well podium contenders now) against each other will be a real roll of the dice. They should all cross the line together IMO, so it just comes down to who rolls over first.

Which ones are you the most confident about?

 

[monty1104]

And FTR, my H2H's for tonight

Sagan vs Chavanel @ $1.47
Cunego vs Evans @ $1.96
Kwiatkowski vs Albasini @ $1.78
Fedrigo vs Albasini @ $1.64
Moreno vs Kwiatkowski @ $1.25

 

[monty1104]

Which ones are you the most confident about?

See above

Rodriguez vs Poels looks good too.

The thing that's tricky is the cat 2 climb isnt enough to destroy a lot of riders, but it's enough to encourage attacks. You just really need to pick the riders you think will attack.

 

[Vader]

15 minutes off the pace so they should let him go. Question is does he have the juice. He has cracked on every single climb this tour so i'm thinking probably not.

He's cracked on the HC and Cat1 climbs. He's done OK on the Cat2 climbs - and the Col de Manse is only Cat2.

 

[Sasquatch]

Thoughts on these head to heads:

Izaguirre ($1.61) vs Izagirre ($2.20)
Fedrigo ($2) vs Albasini ($1.75)
Froome ($1.53) vs Contador ($2.37)
D.Martin ($2.75) vs B.Mollema ($1.40)
Kruizieger ($1.53) vs Quintana ($2.37)
Rodriguez ($1.53) vs Poels ($2.37)
Valverde ($1.83) vs Cadel ($1.83)
Fuglsang ($1.61) vs C-Peraud ($2.20)
Ten Dam ($1.66) vs Nieve ($2.10)
Rolland ($3) vs Bardet ($1.36)
Moreno ($3.40) vs Kwiatkowski ($1.30)
Serpa ($1.61) vs Dupont ($2.20)
A.Schleck ($2.37) vs Navarro ($1.53)
Monfort ($1.72) vs Talansky ($2)
Mederel ($2.10) vs Morabito ($1.66)
Chavanel ($1.53) vs Velits ($2.37)
Anton ($1.50) vs Gadret ($2.50)
Gilbert ($1.44) vs Gerrans ($2.62)
Gavazzi ($1.57) vs Gasparotto ($2.37)
Hoogerland ($1.72) vs De Gendt ($2)

Personally I think Rolland will be in the break tonight to pick up cheap KOM points, so Rolland over Bardet is the most decent option there.

Even if he isn't, and the peloton chase down the break, he will attack to gain points.

If he doesn't make the break, then like the majority of them it will go down to pot luck when they all stroll over the line together.

If it was for sure going to be a sprint with Liquigas doing all the work, then Gavazzi over Gasparotto is decent, but it's a crap shoot. Certainly, Rolland is a decent one, but if he doesn't make the break and the break survive, then it's a coin toss.

 

[happy_eagle]

Sagan in the early break to try and survive the climb and claim some sprint points
Jens Voigt also there too

 

[Freakie]

3 saxo riders in the break, I hope that means what I think it does!

 

[davo99]

Cadel sitting in the peleton as usual?

 

[The Falcon Strike]

The car drivers (and motorcyclists) must do some serious training.

 

[Caesar]

They are all ex-racers themselves.