Which team if any could be a surprise flag winner in 2024?

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PowerfulPies2023

Club Legend
Oct 5, 2023
1,443
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AFL Club
Collingwood
TBH for me in recent times teams that have won the flag unexpectedly are Richmond in 2017 and Melbourne in 2021. They didn't show signs the year before that they could win the flag. It was out of nowhere. In fact I'd also have to include West Coast in 2018 although they made finals 3 years in a row before that and made a semi, elim and GF in the seasons prior. But they sure did surprise me a hell of a lot in 2018 but at last they did have finals experience leading in. But if there were teams I never rated and they got up beforehand, no way in 2017 and 2021 I could envision that.

I don't foresee it happening this year but the above speaks for itself. If I were to pick one side that could go all the way unfancied in 2024 I'd choose the Crows. But they're a little different in my eyes as I already see them as a decent team and results didn't do them any justice last year. 1 and 2 point losses to us, a loss vs Sydney which would have put them in the finals if they could hang on with a minute to go. That ridiculous wrong call by the goal ump. Lost narrowly to Brisbane at The Gabba. A close loss to The Dees at The G. Should have had a shot at goal vs us at The G to win it let's be honest. No need to be biased no matter who you support. Facts are facts.


The other one would be the Hawks. Do I think they will win it? No. Do I think they can? who knows. Richmond and The Dees if you said they'd win it at the start of their seasons you would have been laughed at. I still don't think they would win. But the question is if there's a surprise team that could win it. Who. And they along with The Crows are the sides that I see with a lot of upside and sides that aren't really fancied. I think The Hawks will be returning to their glory days really soon. And their glory days weren't that long ago. Look at how they fared last year beating Collingwood and Brisbane. Beat The Saints, lost narrowly to the Giants. They played some good footy and they'll be the one's to watch out for as the new kids coming up looking to make some noise. Over the next 5 years they could have well and truly emerged.

My money's still on a repeat of last years Granny with The Blues the next best to displaced either one of those. But as for the surprise packets I'll go with The Crows and if there was one team to come up from near the bottom, it's The Hawks.
 
Sydney, if MacDonald/Amartey can go up a level, and their backline can stay healthy, should go close. They were a bit unfortunate with injuries last year, forcing Mills and Rampe to play a bit taller than theyd like back there.
Grundy and Adams are big additions, and another year into their young stars will help. Mills back into the guts, Adams an extra experienced rotation mid, Grundy an improvement over Hickey, I reckon theyre primed
 

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Sydney, if MacDonald/Amartey can go up a level, and their backline can stay healthy, should go close. They were a bit unfortunate with injuries last year, forcing Mills and Rampe to play a bit taller than theyd like back there.
Grundy and Adams are big additions, and another year into their young stars will help. Mills back into the guts, Adams an extra experienced rotation mid, Grundy an improvement over Hickey, I reckon theyre primed

The Swans main issue is in our KPD stocks. Losing Paddy last year really hurt us as both McCartin's were a solid combination. Now we only have Tom, and then our other KPD's are Hamling, Melican, Snell and Arnold.

It is not a defensive combination that I can feel super confident about.

However, in saying that if we can make it work, then the Swans have very much strengthened other serious needs to Grundy and Adams in the side and there have been reports that oddly enough James Jordon was really impressive in the match simulation last week, something that was a bit surprising.
 
The Swans main issue is in our KPD stocks. Losing Paddy last year really hurt us as both McCartin's were a solid combination. Now we only have Tom, and then our other KPD's are Hamling, Melican, Snell and Arnold.

It is not a defensive combination that I can feel super confident about.

However, in saying that if we can make it work, then the Swans have very much strengthened other serious needs to Grundy and Adams in the side and there have been reports that oddly enough James Jordon was really impressive in the match simulation last week, something that was a bit surprising.
Yeah thats probably the biggest weakness I can see for the Swans, if Tom Mccartin goes down for anything, the backline gets super shallow very quick.
 
Yeah thats probably the biggest weakness I can see for the Swans, if Tom Mccartin goes down for anything, the backline gets super shallow very quick.

Agreed. McCartin is undoubtably the Swans most important player in 2024. Lose him and our backline becomes very weak.

In saying that though, I do think the Swans are a chance of the flag in 2024. I am not saying we are favourites or anything like that, but I think we do have a shot, but everything needs to go right.
 

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Surely Sydney wouldn't be a surprise? Finished runners up with a very young team in 2022. There's no real reason apart from recency bias to put teams like GWS and Carlton ahead of them.

I feel like Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and Port wouldn't qualify as surprise premiers.
TBH, i don't even have them in the 8. I don't know how they made it last year. They were Lucky The Crows were robbed against them.


 
I kinda agree with you in a sense that they wouldn't be a surprise based on making the finals albeit in shay circumstances and that they made the granny in 2022. The Blue baggers only just beat them too they fared very well there. On the other hand I can't help but look on their season as a whole and thing they were putrid for the most part.
 
Surely Sydney wouldn't be a surprise? Finished runners up with a very young team in 2022. There's no real reason apart from recency bias to put teams like GWS and Carlton ahead of them.

I feel like Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and Port wouldn't qualify as surprise premiers.
It's hard to pick a surprise team you think is half a chance if you are limited to bottom 10 teams only.

Shows how even the comp is
 
Saints lmao. Get off the drugs.
Zero hope in 2024.

6 point loss to the premiers, 12 point loss to the runners up, wins over both other prelim finalists. I mean you may need drugs to cope with being a Saints supporter in general, but hardly need drugs to make that leap of them being a smokey to snatch a flag.
 

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