Who Do You Choose First

[Seymour Skinner]

Gaz
Goldy
Lids
Kolo

 

[matt_bas]

Mids:
Gaj rocky fyfe
Rucks
Goldy
Fwds
Dusty
Def...
God knows

Good luck with Goldy at nearly $1M

 

[Milanista28]

Libba first, Should be under 450k?

Rocky well under priced.

Selwood with Danger could boom.

I feel Marc Murphy could go 108-115 all year.

 

[CasuallyDressed]

Goldstein is my first picked.

 

[toxic]

Goldy.mummy

 

[toxic]

Good luck with Goldy at nearly $1M

Best money spent

Can't have enuff captain options

 

[Kadog]

Goldy.mummy

Started with that combo this year. Will be doing the same in '16.

 

[matt_bas]

Best money spent

Can't have enuff captain options

Or just wait til he drops a couple hundred thousand

 

[pincrusher]

Or just wait til he drops a couple hundred thousand

and be 300 points behind everyone that has him.

 

[toxic]

and be 300 points behind everyone that has him.

Or just wait til he drops a couple hundred thousand

And as a captain option that could be more than 300 points

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Goldys first 4 rounds.

Sam Jacobs
Stef Martin
Max Gawn
Aaron Sandilands

Will drop in price. Maybe not 200k but he will be priced at a very high average for a ruckman and will be the most expensive player in the comp.

 

[Thuggee_Cult]

Gaz, Rocky, Selwood, Libba, Petracca only locks for me. Prestia depending on price.

I forgot about Prestia, will keep an eye out.

 

[Lums23]

Goldys first 4 rounds.

Sam Jacobs
Stef Martin
Max Gawn
Aaron Sandilands

Will drop in price. Maybe not 200k but he will be priced at a very high average for a ruckman and will be the most expensive player in the comp.

Scored 100 against Jacobs round 1 last year
154 and 127 in two games against Bris (both games was double teamed by Stef and Luey all day)
155 in one game vs Gawn
44 and 116 in two games against Sandilands

= 696 in six games, or an average of 116, which is brought down by the 44, which also happened to be one of only 3 scores below 100 for the year and his only below 90

It's a bit like taking Ablett in previous years, sure he'll be cheaper at some stage, but how far behind will you be by then?

 

[blueiris]

So who are the rookie players a chance of playing round one
Keays- Mid/Fwd
Patracca-Mid/Fwd
Oliver-Mid
Wietering-Def
Any one else?

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Scored 100 against Jacobs round 1 last year
154 and 127 in two games against Bris (both games was double teamed by Stef and Luey all day)
155 in one game vs Gawn
44 and 116 in two games against Sandilands

= 696 in six games, or an average of 116, which is brought down by the 44, which also happened to be one of only 3 scores below 100 for the year and his only below 90

It's a bit like taking Ablett in previous years, sure he'll be cheaper at some stage, but how far behind will you be by then?

This is where the math comes in.
His starting price may scare off a few, me included.
What was his average this year. 135?
If he matches those scires and averages 116 the first 4 rounds he will drop 80-100k.

 

[Thuggee_Cult]

So who are the rookie players a chance of playing round one
Keays- Mid/Fwd
Patracca-Mid/Fwd
Oliver-Mid
Wietering-Def
Any one else?

Mills - Swans
Hopper - GWS
Yarran - Freo
Brown - Dons
Gresham from Saints a smokey

Keep an eye out for Fridays rookie draft

 

[footyfan1978]

Zac Dawson,Trent Cotchin or Claye Beams.

 

[Lums23]

So who are the rookie players a chance of playing round one
Keays- Mid/Fwd
Patracca-Mid/Fwd
Oliver-Mid
Wietering-Def
Any one else?

Hard to say of the others prior to pre season and NAB cup, but of the North kids I reckon Clarke is half a chance. Especially if someone like Gibson happened to get injured (please happen).
Also Will Fordham would have to be half a chance to get early games, had a huge second half of the year in the vfl and was emergency a lot. Was surprised not to see him promoted this year actually

 

[Lums23]

This is where the math comes in.
His starting price may scare off a few, me included.
What was his average this year. 135?
If he matches those scires and averages 116 the first 4 rounds he will drop 80-100k.

Sounds good on paper, but that'll only bring him down to 620-640k. You're not going to trade him in for a premo ruck, so it'll mean you start with someone like luey, who is only going to be mid 300s. By round 4 the most he could be is 450, and if you're trading him then he'll still be on the bubble. You'd also need 200k or so of loose change to make up the difference. So probably a trade to make the money and a trade to bring him in

Seems like a lot of effort to save 100k

 

[toxic]

Martin and Mummy
VERSUS
Goldy and Smith

Both about 1.1-1.2 million

Thoughts? ??

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Sounds good on paper, but that'll only bring him down to 620-640k. You're not going to trade him in for a premo ruck, so it'll mean you start with someone like luey, who is only going to be mid 300s. By round 4 the most he could be is 450, and if you're trading him then he'll still be on the bubble. You'd also need 200k or so of loose change to make up the difference. So probably a trade to make the money and a trade to bring him in

Seems like a lot of effort to save 100k

Ahhh yes the old burnie tradie when upgrading the premos.

You're right, burning a trade on a maybe $ saving is not on, especially when you need to have Goldy if you're taking this at all seriously.

Good thing I still have time to get the brain back into SC mode and not **** and beer/summer mode.

 

[Lums23]

Thoughts? ??

Your new avatar is great

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Scored 100 against Jacobs round 1 last year
154 and 127 in two games against Bris (both games was double teamed by Stef and Luey all day)
155 in one game vs Gawn
44 and 116 in two games against Sandilands

= 696 in six games, or an average of 116, which is brought down by the 44, which also happened to be one of only 3 scores below 100 for the year and his only below 90

It's a bit like taking Ablett in previous years, sure he'll be cheaper at some stage, but how far behind will you be by then?

Goldy's average last year was way higher than any other year 129 v next best year 113 in 2011 and 2013. He isn't anywhere near Ablett.

Picking Goldy in the starting lineup screams massive mistake to me. I expect his scores will regress closer to his historical average. And you don't need him as an early season captain choice - not with Ablett, Rocky, Sloane, Fyfe etc.

I'm looking at a one premo (maybe NicNat) one bargain ruck line up to start with an upgrade later when we see how the rucks are travelling.

 

[Lums23]

Goldy's average last year was way higher than any other year 129 v next best year 113 in 2011 and 2013. He isn't anywhere near Ablett.

Picking Goldy in the starting lineup screams massive mistake to me. I expect his scores will regress closer to his historical average. And you don't need him as an early season captain choice - not with Ablett, Rocky, Sloane, Fyfe etc.

I'm looking at a one premo (maybe NicNat) one bargain ruck line up to start with an upgrade later when we see how the rucks are travelling.

Fair enough, it's probably a good way to do it. I'm still spooked by this years dud mid price rucks though

 

[pincrusher]

Goldy's average last year was way higher than any other year 129 v next best year 113 in 2011 and 2013. He isn't anywhere near Ablett.

Picking Goldy in the starting lineup screams massive mistake to me. I expect his scores will regress closer to his historical average. And you don't need him as an early season captain choice - not with Ablett, Rocky, Sloane, Fyfe etc.

I'm looking at a one premo (maybe NicNat) one bargain ruck line up to start with an upgrade later when we see how the rucks are travelling.

I'm a glass half full person. Will be approaching 28YO at the start of next season. Absolute prime for a tall. You could say that he averaged 128 and you expect his average to fall back to historical levels, or you could be happy that he "only" averaged 128 after the 44 against Freo bought his averaged down, and hence his starting price for next year. FYI after that 44 against Freo he averaged 142.54 for the rest of the year. BARGAIN