On the contrary, I think this year is a fantastic opportunity, because there are no clear cut champions to dethrone, it's a pretty open field. And I sense a changing of the guard somewhat in the next couple of years.
Of 2016's Top 8:
Sydney - I actually see them having a slump this season, since 2012's flag they have been thereabouts without being able to win the big one, and I think the pressure of expectation could start getting to them at some point.
Geelong - We exposed them last year, and despite running out of legs and not being able to finish the job, the Cats barely escaped with a win over us, and I think 2017 is the year we finally get a win against them. I also see them potentially falling out of the Top 8, they are a prime example of a team being carried by superstars, but eventually that bubble bursts.
Hawthorn - They've done it all, and although it's dangerous to write off a team that have been as good as the Hawks, they are about to enter a new era of players, and I don't see them as certainties at all to make finals.
GWS - Can't see them missing, they will probably win the premiership this year... however if they get ahead of themselves, they could underperform due to the pressure of expectation. They probably won't, just too much form and talent... but like the Dogs, they are a hunted team this year, and other teams will be planning heavily for them, so they need to learn to be the hunted, not the hunters.
Adelaide - Bit of a yo-yo side, good enough to make the Top 8 but never really go deep, similar to us in 2015 but just an extra win in them. Although they dealt with the loss of Danger last year pretty well, they could get found out with their lack of speed in the middle.
West Coast - Their style relies on them having Nic Nat, and his loss for 2017 is going to be huge. They're just a totally different team without him. Mitchell helps them a bit, but he's aging and won't be able to carry them. Decent team, but again no certainties, all it takes is a few injuries and their depth will be heavily tested. No certainties.
Western Bulldogs - They won the flag, but let's remember that they finished 7th with a pretty poor percentage for a 15 win team. Fantastic finals series aside, I don't think they're certainties to make the Top 8 this year, the pressure of being the "hunted" rather than the hunters is something they're not used to, and let's all remember what happened to the great Hawks side of 2008 the following year.
North - With all the experience they have lost, they're almost certainly staring at a drop on the ladder while they do a mini-rebuild, I see them having a similar year to us in 2016 honestly, they'll be competitive at stages, but won't have enough class or depth to win the required 12-13 matches needed.
So of the Top 8, you can realistically say that 4 or even 5 of them could potentially fall away, leaving room for some of the teams that missed in 2016 to strike.
St. Kilda, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, and Richmond could all potentially fill those gaps, and our performances against these teams will dictate where we finish ultimately. In 2016 we went 1-5 in those fixtures, that has to improve. You can make a case for all 5 of these teams to make the Top 8, and you can also make a case for why all 5 will miss again, so it comes down to how we perform in the key moments during the season.
I think Gold Coast and Brisbane will continue to struggle, although Brisbane are stockpiling some pretty handy talent, and Rocket Eade's teams don't usually stay down the bottom for too long.
Carlton have a very ordinary list with a very good coach so they could do alright, but are are ultimately limited by their overall talent level, whilst Fremantle are the great unknowns of the competition, however I think Ross is clearly looking at rebuilding with that 2020 contract in place, so they might be a few years off being a serious threat again.
It's a cliche, but this season is one of the most even it's ever been, and don't discount any team completely.
Not even Richmond!
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