The 2008 Dream Team (and discussion on premiums and keepers)

[Beau_Waters for PM]

My understand of DT is that the aim is to have the best team possible as soon as you can. You achieve this by starting with a team consisting of premiums (keepers), low/mid-priced potentials who will either be considered premiums by the end of the season, and rookies, or players who are cheap and inexperienced.
As the season progresses the idea is to trade your rookies and potentials to premiums (or get them to become premiums i guess).

So, in order to know what you're doing, you have to know what a team of premiums looks like. i.e. who will be in the 2008 'dream team'. If you don't know who the premiums are, then you will be upgrading to players like Deledio, Lynch, Guerra and Josh Carr - who are not premiums but more like "almost-premiums" or merely potentials. They are either too inconsistent or simply not good enough to be keepers. Or maybe they are keepers, but they are not the best keepers.

So, what does the Dream Team of 2008 look like? That is, who will be the top scorers in each position (for the centres, you could probably make a list of about 60 keepers).

I'll start by naming an extended squad. This list is subjective of course, but I'm willing to have a crack. I reckon this squad would have all the best players in each position for the year, so these are the guys you want to end up with. (In a rough order)

Backs
Top 9:
Cornes, Bowden, Burgoyne, Shaw, Waters, Goddard, Milburn, McPhee, Fisher
Keepers:
Drummond, Malceski, Mackie, Gilbee, Birchall, Newman, Johncock, McLeod, Fletcher, Mundy, B.Jones, Kennelly

Centres
Top 8:
Bartel, Corey, Kornes, Swan, Ablett, Cross, Priddis, Thompson,
Keepers:
Basically the current top 50 priced centres

Rucks
Top 4:
Cox, White, McIntosh, Ottens
Keepers:
Sandilands, Lade, Hille, Simmonds, Fraser, Gilmore

Forwards
Top 9:
Chapman, Pavlich, BJ, Riewoldt, Brown, SJ, O'Keefe, Hall, Franklin
Keepers:
Stokes, Richo, Cloke, Deledio, Murphy, NG.Brown

Basically, I define a keeper is a player that could potentially stay in your team all season - they are not a priority upgrade, although should be upgraded if you have the means to do so. In other words I would say keep them for now if you've got them already, but don't trade for them if you can afford one of the top players in that position instead.

Of course, I'm almost guaranteed to have missed a few. But basically my list of keepers is limited to the players I would keep for the season - so long as I had other priority upgrades. The thing about making a list of keepers is that everyone's priorities are going to be different depending on the trades they are wishing to make.

For example, two coaches may have Brett Burton. He is arguably a keeper, but not in my opinion. If I had him then I would be seeking to upgrade him for one of the top 9 forwards. The thing to be remembered is that trades are gold, so if I had Burton + all the top 8 backs except for Ryan O'Keefe, then upgrading Burton to O'Keefe would be around $40k. In my opinion this does not warrant an upgrade. Therefore you would classify Burton as a keeper in this situation. I hope I've made sense there, its a bit of a tricky idea for me to explain, but I hope you get the gist. Whether or not a player is a keeper depends on your particular situation. I guess then, that this list is my list of "ideal keepers".

I'm sure there are some willing to argue my top selections in each position, and I'm more than keen to hear opinions.

Oh, and props to anyone who read all that. Apologies for the wall of text, but I thought it warranted more than a paragraph or two. Will hopefully make for some good late-night discussion at least.

 

[Butane]

What you say is true...well it's how i roll anyway. All newbs to DT should read this thread before posting in the weekly 'trades' thread.

 

[Cruiser23]

Spot on mate. Newbies, please read this because so of your trade ideas are ridiculous and will save you from a humiliation. As i said in one of the other thread, there are two types of trades. Non-keeper to keeper and downgrade to a cash cow.

The aim is to get as many keepers as possible, preferably the top 7, 6, 2 and 7 in each position. So trading to an Osborne, Thornton, Burton etc is a waste because you are stuck with them for the whole season (unless you waste another trade).

If an injured keeper is out for less than 4 weeks early on in the season and you have a fairly decent back up (40-50 odd points), do not trade. What happens is it is much easier to gain ground later in the season than early on. If you don't have trades near the end of the season and someone gets injured, it will a much bigger loss because most people's teams will be much much better. Be patient and don't rush things. As many knowledgeable people have said, this game is not a sprint. You have to think of the big picture when you trade, not just a few weeks ahead.

 

[Weapon O Choice]

Nice Work.

This was pretty much what i looked at in constructing my team. No middle man who just stays the same price all year but somehow stays in your team because there are other weak links. I only had keepers or ones who will rise up to help me bring in the guns.

 

[frantelle]

great work bw4pm

 

[boris danes]

Dont think Gia is a keeper up forward?
Also i am hoping i can hold onto Symes as a keeper, three rounds in and nothing special but playing some very good sides. I think as its been posted on this board a few times he will begin to hit his straps over the next 4-5 weeks.
Also at this early stage I would have Barry Hall as a keeper, not warranting an upgrade the way he is playing.

 

[DTHitman]

shame lockyer isnt a back anymore. =(
good thread though

i would probally put didak as a kepper though with scores of (off the top of my head) 77 , 89 , 110
also Gia

 

[LemmingMaster]

Players like Didak, Burton, Gian, Symes and other such players are not strictly keepers. They're in the maybe keepers section. They may end up being keepers but we're yet to see. In my eyes those such players are the ones you may upgrade last of all.

 

[rabbit43]

spot on, still not convinced on the beau waters but he's certainly almost there.

also, in terms of forwards, hall and franklin, while they are fantastic performers at times, are not in the same category as a pav or chapman, nor would i say the rest of the top 7. they are worth keeping, but don't for a minute think they are worth the same dt respect. along with fevola, they can have absolute shockers if held well.

 

[bones25]

My understand of DT is that the aim is to have the best team possible as soon as you can. You achieve this by starting with a team consisting of premiums (keepers), low/mid-priced potentials who will either be considered premiums by the end of the season, and rookies, or players who are cheap and inexperienced.
As the season progresses the idea is to trade your rookies and potentials to premiums (or get them to become premiums i guess).

So, in order to know what you're doing, you have to know what a team of premiums looks like. i.e. who will be in the 2008 'dream team'. If you don't know who the premiums are, then you will be upgrading to players like Deledio, Lynch, Guerra and Josh Carr - who are not premiums but more like "almost-premiums" or merely potentials. They are either too inconsistent or simply not good enough to be keepers. Or maybe they are keepers, but they are not the best keepers.

So, what does the Dream Team of 2008 look like? That is, who will be the top scorers in each position (for the centres, you could probably make a list of about 60 keepers).

I'll start by naming an extended squad. This list is subjective of course, but I'm willing to have a crack. I reckon this squad would have all the best players in each position for the year, so these are the guys you want to end up with. (In a rough order)

Backs
Top 9:
Cornes, Bowden, Burgoyne, Shaw, Waters, Goddard, Milburn, McPhee, Fisher
Keepers:
Drummond, Malceski, Mackie, Gilbee, Birchall, Newman, Johncock, McLeod, Fletcher, Mundy, B.Jones, Kennelly

Centres
Top 8:
Bartel, Corey, Kornes, Swan, Ablett, Cross, Priddis, Thompson,
Keepers:
Basically the current top 50 priced centres

Rucks
Top 4:
Cox, White, McIntosh, Ottens
Keepers:
Sandilands, Lade, Hille, Simmonds, Fraser, Gilmore

Forwards
Top 9:
Chapman, Pavlich, BJ, Riewoldt, Brown, SJ, O'Keefe, Hall, Franklin
Keepers:
Stokes, Richo, Cloke, Deledio, Murphy, NG.Brown

Basically, I define a keeper is a player that could potentially stay in your team all season - they are not a priority upgrade, although should be upgraded if you have the means to do so. In other words I would say keep them for now if you've got them already, but don't trade for them if you can afford one of the top players in that position instead.

Of course, I'm almost guaranteed to have missed a few. But basically my list of keepers is limited to the players I would keep for the season - so long as I had other priority upgrades. The thing about making a list of keepers is that everyone's priorities are going to be different depending on the trades they are wishing to make.

For example, two coaches may have Brett Burton. He is arguably a keeper, but not in my opinion. If I had him then I would be seeking to upgrade him for one of the top 9 forwards. The thing to be remembered is that trades are gold, so if I had Burton + all the top 8 backs except for Ryan O'Keefe, then upgrading Burton to O'Keefe would be around $40k. In my opinion this does not warrant an upgrade. Therefore you would classify Burton as a keeper in this situation. I hope I've made sense there, its a bit of a tricky idea for me to explain, but I hope you get the gist. Whether or not a player is a keeper depends on your particular situation. I guess then, that this list is my list of "ideal keepers".

I'm sure there are some willing to argue my top selections in each position, and I'm more than keen to hear opinions.

Oh, and props to anyone who read all that. Apologies for the wall of text, but I thought it warranted more than a paragraph or two. Will hopefully make for some good late-night discussion at least.

Pretty spot on.

I would drop Goddard down to the keepers for the moment tho, wouldn't be getting him in until he can get 5-6 games under his belt.
Hopefully Jones & Symes are keepers, just in case things go pear shaped and upgrades are needed elsewhere.
Rucks I would only put Cox/White as top premiums, somehow I have to turn Wood/Kreuzer into White, not interested in anyone else.
Forwards I wouldn't have Hall in the premiums just yet nor Franklin, he was too inconsistent for me, this year could be his year to settle down. Would throw in Burton as a keeper. And no way would I recommend anyone get Richo.

As for the mids, well you could create 6 levels.
I think by the end of the season Murphy may be very close to breaking into that sub elite area, if yer know what I mean.

I broke one of my rules this week, only because of desperation and didn't want another 2007 Riggio. Did Hansen>Taylor, could not risk taking two 0's if Bowden misses.

Yep from now on should only be 2 types of trades, down to a rookie or up to a premium.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I broke one of my rules this week, only because of desperation and didn't want another 2007 Riggio. Did Hansen>Taylor, could not risk taking two 0's if Bowden misses.

What are you going to do with Mackie comes back and potentially Taylor gets dropped?

 

[bones25]

What are you going to do with Mackie comes back and potentially Taylor gets dropped?

Potentially all the back rookies will get dropped, cept Brown, but I needed some cash flow and took the chance. First big upgrade will be a back. Bowden should only be out for 1 week you would think. I can handle one 0 but not 2.

 

[lills]

Just wondering whether people think Bock is a potential keeper?

Looks as though he's going to be down back for pretty much the whole time (injuries notwithstanding) and that's where he scores well. It was the forward experiment that really killed him last year.

 

[_RT_]

After reading that the next question is how many of these players do people currently have in their squads. Currently I have 8 of the premiums (Cornes, Bowden, Shaw, Corey, Swan, Cox Hall & Pavlich) plus 5 keepers ( B.Jones, Judd, Simmonds, Deledio & NG Brown) so basically all I need to do is upgrade possibly 6 more players to this list and I should have a reasonably strong squad.

BTW interested on peoples thoughts on the following players who I think could be elevated to keeper status by years end: Bradshaw(70), Griffen(80), Porplyzia(87) & Akermanis(83).

 

[LemmingMaster]

I have 7 Premiums (Maybe 8 if you include Hodge?)
I have 5 keepers (6 If you include Hodge here?)

 

[Invigoration]

After reading that the next question is how many of these players do people currently have in their squads. Currently I have 7 of the premiums (Cornes, Bowden, Shaw, Corey, Swan, Cox & Pavlich) plus 5 keepers ( B.Jones, Judd, Simmonds, Deledio & NG Brown) so basically all I need to do is upgrade possibly 7 more players to this list and I should have a reasonably strong squad.

BTW interested on peoples thoughts on the following players who I think could be elevated to keeper status by years end: Hall(ave 90), Bradshaw(70), Griffen(80), Porplyzia(87) & Akermanis(83).

He listed Hall as a premium, so that takes you to 8... Though I don't believe he is just yet, keeper is probably more suitable.

The other four you listed are all keepers now that you have them and while they continue to perform the are fine to hold on.
Though they are the type that is hard to judge on how they will consistently perform, you ideally want to be upgrading rookies to premiums later in the piece, but if one of these types is under performing you might find yourself upgrading one of these guys.

These guys you have to play more week by week though, like Griffen and Porps could go either way. I am happy to have them both at the moment, and have them continuing to increase in price... But playing the odds, I wouldn't say any of those 4 (outside of Hall) will become definite keepers.

Wait and see though, you can only hope I'm certainly hoping Griffen does

 

[bones25]

Premiums:
Shaw
Bowden
McPhee
Swan
Goodes-near nuff
Cox
Pav
BJ
Brown

Probable keepers if have to:
Jones B
Symes
Jones N
Burton
Cloke
Fev-um well you know

so that leaves 7 really really gotta must upgrades.

 

[Robo 123]

I understand what the idea of it is but i have a problem
i have gram at the moment and he is letting me down. He probably isn't going to be a keeper this year so at some stage im going to have to upgrade him. i was thinking this week:
Gram - > goddard
does this seem like a waste

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Dont think Gia is a keeper up forward?
Also i am hoping i can hold onto Symes as a keeper, three rounds in and nothing special but playing some very good sides. I think as its been posted on this board a few times he will begin to hit his straps over the next 4-5 weeks.

The thing that defines a keeper will be a consistently average for the season, and also a high total points score (i.e. they aren't a very good keeper if they're injury-prone or have a LTI)
So if Gia can maintain his current average, then he will definitely be a keeper - he'll even fit into the top scoring forwards for the year.
I'm just looking over Gia's record now. I had pictured him being too inconsistent and injury-prone to be a keeper, but last season he played all 22 games and averaged 82, so that puts him up there. Its the few seasons beforehand that have made me wary of him though:
2005: av 86.7 played 17 games
2006: av 83.5 played 16 games
2007: av 82.3 played 22 games
You can see that his average is actually on a downward trend - not a good thing when trying to choose a mid-priced player who is set to improve.
Having said that, if he averages over 80 for the year and plays at least 20 games then I would consider him a keeper.
In fact, that's probably a handy guide for discerning whether a player is a keeper or not - make sure they are averaging 80+ and are likely to play all season.

Also at this early stage I would have Barry Hall as a keeper, not warranting an upgrade the way he is playing.

I've actually got Hall listed as a premium forward - not because I think he should be there, but simply because I think he will finish in the top 9 forwards for the season.

i would probally put didak as a kepper though with scores of (off the top of my head) 77 , 89 , 110

I agree with you, if he can continue to score well then he is definitely a keeper. He only averages 68 from 18 games last season - which is why we should be waiting to see he is the goods before elevating him to keeper (or potentially even premium) status.

Players like Didak, Burton, Gian, Symes and other such players are not strictly keepers. They're in the maybe keepers section. They may end up being keepers but we're yet to see. In my eyes those such players are the ones you may upgrade last of all.

My opinion exactly, thanks for that Tarquin.

spot on, still not convinced on the beau waters but he's certainly almost there.

Fair enough, but I firmly believe he'll be in the top 7 highest scoring backs this season.

also, in terms of forwards, hall and franklin, while they are fantastic performers at times, are not in the same category as a pav or chapman, nor would i say the rest of the top 7. they are worth keeping, but don't for a minute think they are worth the same dt respect. along with fevola, they can have absolute shockers if held well.

I agree with you there. Pav, Chapman, Roo, BJ & Brown are in a different league to the next best forwards. However, for the purpose of listing the top scorers for the year I classed them all as premiums.

I would drop Goddard down to the keepers for the moment tho, wouldn't be getting him in until he can get 5-6 games under his belt.
Hopefully Jones & Symes are keepers, just in case things go pear shaped and upgrades are needed elsewhere.

Fair point re: Goddard

Rucks I would only put Cox/White as top premiums, somehow I have to turn Wood/Kreuzer into White, not interested in anyone else.
Forwards I wouldn't have Hall in the premiums just yet nor Franklin, he was too inconsistent for me, this year could be his year to settle down. Would throw in Burton as a keeper. And no way would I recommend anyone get Richo.

Cox and White are certainly the best two rucks in my opinion, although I also believe that H-Mac and Ottens are up there. Which is why I listed Cox and White as 1-2 respectively. If for some reason you can't/won't get either of them, then I think Hamish and Brad are pretty decent picks as well.
As for Hall and Franklin, see my answer above. I'm definitely not a Franklin fan, but frankly (no pun intended) I don't think there will be players scoring higher than him this year apart from the other ones I listed as premiums. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong though.

Just wondering whether people think Bock is a potential keeper? Looks as though he's going to be down back for pretty much the whole time (injuries notwithstanding) and that's where he scores well. It was the forward experiment that really killed him last year.

If he keeps up his current form then, by all means yes. The problem is that his previous history shows that he is an inconsistent hack. Although I traded him in Round 3 last season and ended up keeping him anyway, as I had higher priority trades to do.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I understand what the idea of it is but i have a problem
i have gram at the moment and he is letting me down. He probably isn't going to be a keeper this year so at some stage im going to have to upgrade him. i was thinking this week:
Gram - > goddard
does this seem like a waste

I would say that trade is okay, except don't do it this week.
Gram has a surprisingly good record against the Cats, scoring 120, 82 and 73 in his last 3 games.
Also wait to see how Goddard goes. A trade would only be warranted if Goddard will be averging around 90 in my opinion.

 

[gwono]

Premiums:
Chornes
Milburn
Kornes
McIntosh
Pavlich
BJ
Riewoldt

Keepers:
Kennelly
Gilbee
Hayes
Dal Santo
Goodes
Simmonds

7 and 6

9 to upgrade =(

I'm in trouble this year

 

[Dagga]

i really really like this threat, its the view ive always held

the way i see it DreamTeam is a race to whoever gets that team first that everybody wants with all the 'keepers' or top players as you have called them

there will obviously be exceptions but by the end of the year the teams in the top 100 or even 1000 will be very very simialr...

 

[Tippaz]

Beau Waters for PM,
i think you've overlooked a critical element... the ability to play 22 games.

sure - the likes of J.Brown could average 100ppg, but if he doesn't play 22 games he's no better than the likes of Deledio who may average 80ppg.
that's why i rate O'Keefe so highly in DT. (hasn't missed a game since 2003). stability is important.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Beau Waters for PM,
i think you've overlooked a critical element... the ability to play 22 games.

sure - the likes of J.Brown could average 100ppg, but if he doesn't play 22 games he's no better than the likes of Deledio who may average 80ppg.
that's why i rate O'Keefe so highly in DT. (hasn't missed a game since 2003). stability is important.

Your right, I missed it in my opening post. However, I mentioned it in response to another post:

The thing that defines a keeper will be a consistently average for the season, and also a high total points score (i.e. they aren't a very good keeper if they're injury-prone or have a LTI)

That is a good point though Tippaz. Its also one of the reasons I am wary of the likes of Gia, Burton etc. Total score should be a key consideration as well as the average.

 

[Tippaz]

one of my trade secrets is to target players who rarely miss games

- i can't promise you they'll play 22 games (footy is a contact sport, injuries happen)
- but i can promise you they are far MORE LIKELY to play 22 games than the common player
- some of my fantasy favourites include Pavlich, B.Johnson, O'Keefe, Goodes, K.Cornes, Milburn, Bowden, Lucas (went down - very rare), West (of yesteryear), Dal Santo, Black