Round 7: Peaking / Bottoming out players

[flackjack]

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is the final call for all passengers boarding the Kane Cornes flight. We are due to depart this week and will probably not come down to land for the remainder of the season."

Would really love to, and i mean it. However I can't afford to take Qantas at the moment...Richmond Tiger Airways is the only way to go for me at the moment...

 

[Cruiser23]

Not for this week but both Swan and Corey will be their lowest by next week. I am jumping on one of them (not literally ), both freaks when it comes to DT so if you miss out on Kornes this week, these two are just as good, no need to panic.

 

[bones25]

No need to panic kids, there's still 16 games to go and you can bet the top 6 mids with throw in 1 or 2 more bad games each. Law of averages they will anyway.

 

[BartBart]

Not for this week but both Swan and Corey will be their lowest by next week. I am jumping on one of them (not literally ), both freaks when it comes to DT so if you miss out on Kornes this week, these two are just as good, no need to panic.

Probably going to get both of those before either Rd 8 or 9. That would leave my midfield something like:
Corey, K.Cornes, Cross, Swan, Ablett, Stevens, Palmer, (player traded in for Bird). That will leave me to focus on taking some cheap guns up forward and having to worry about getting the backline right. Probably need to wait for cashcows to mature before fixing those up though.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Would really love to, and i mean it. However I can't afford to take Qantas at the moment...Richmond Tiger Airways is the only way to go for me at the moment...

Haha. The Tiger Airways pun was classic.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Not for this week but both Swan and Corey will be their lowest by next week. I am jumping on one of them (not literally ), both freaks when it comes to DT so if you miss out on Kornes this week, these two are just as good, no need to panic.

Swan and Corey are right up there, but Kornes has been the best performing player in the comp for the last three years straight.

 

[Grinner]

Swan and Corey are right up there, but Kornes has been the best performing player in the comp for the last three years straight.

Absolutely true. Thanks to Ryan Griffen last week I have come up a painful $2500 short of being able to afford Kane this week.

Not willing to do further trades to come up with the extra cash so am going to have to make do with Swan.

 

[Cruiser23]

Swan and Corey are right up there, but Kornes has been the best performing player in the comp for the last three years straight.

Yeh, agree Kornes is a freak but you can put K.Cornes, Corey, Bartel and Swan all in the same catergory more or less. Will only be a few points between them, very very minimal, doesn't really matter which one you choose. Swan will be around 400k, maybe even less, Kornes about 435k and Corey about 430k next week. Take your pick, can't go wrong with any of them really.

This week Kornes is an absolute bargain and if you have the money take him this week. But if you are like me, and don't, get Swan next week, even more of a bargain if you ask me. My thoughts anyway.

 

[bones25]

You forgot young Gaz.

 

[Cruiser23]

You forgot young Gaz.

Yeh, if he dropped under 400k he is a big bargain but i wouldn't put him in the same catergory as Bartel, Corey, Swan and Kornes just yet. He is just an inche below them, with Cross IMO. And i would pick one of those four before Ablett if they were at the same price. Just my opinion but those four are much safer at the moment because they have proven consistently over 2+ years that they can amass huge averages. If Ablett can average 100+ this year, he is very much in there catergory, just not yet IMO.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Yeh, agree Kornes is a freak but you can put K.Cornes, Corey, Bartel and Swan all in the same catergory more or less. Will only be a few points between them, very very minimal, doesn't really matter which one you choose. Swan will be around 400k, maybe even less, Kornes about 435k and Corey about 430k next week. Take your pick, can't go wrong with any of them really.

This week Kornes is an absolute bargain and if you have the money take him this week. But if you are like me, and don't, get Swan next week, even more of a bargain if you ask me. My thoughts anyway.

Yeh, if he dropped under 400k he is a big bargain but i wouldn't put him in the same catergory as Bartel, Corey, Swan and Kornes just yet. He is just an inche below them, with Cross IMO. And i would pick one of those four before Ablett if they were at the same price. Just my opinion but those four are much safer at the moment because they have proven consistently over 2+ years that they can amass huge averages. If Ablett can average 95+ this year, he is very much in there catergory, just not yet IMO.

I agree with both of those statements actually.
I'm going Kornes this week because I feel that Dyson has peaked and Kornes has bottomed out. It fits together too well to pass up. I've still got two of Morton/Palmer/Bird starting. I feel that Palmer is a keeper, and Bird and Morton can both be held for a few more weeks. Will probably hold both indefinitely, since they are getting consistent games and both averaging quite solidly.

In a month or so down the track I'll downgrade one (once Cotchin debuts perhaps) and upgrade the other once the time is right. Morton has been pretty consistent so far, just had a bad game last week.

Kornes will be a boost to my cheapo midfield. At present it looks like:
Cross, Johnstone, Stevens, Palmer, Dyson, Morton

Kornes, Cross, TJ, Stevens, Palmer, Morton looks much better to me. Even if it is only one player the difference.

 

[Cruiser23]

I agree with both of those statements actually.
I'm going Kornes this week because I feel that Dyson has peaked and Kornes has bottomed out. It fits together too well to pass up. I've still got two of Morton/Palmer/Bird starting. I feel that Palmer is a keeper, and Bird and Morton can both be held for a few more weeks. Will probably hold both indefinitely, since they are getting consistent games and both averaging quite solidly.

In a month or so down the track I'll downgrade one (once Cotchin debuts perhaps) and upgrade the other once the time is right. Morton has been pretty consistent so far, just had a bad game last week.

Kornes will be a boost to my cheapo midfield. At present it looks like:
Cross, Johnstone, Stevens, Palmer, Dyson, Morton

Kornes, Cross, TJ, Stevens, Palmer, Morton looks much better to me. Even if it is only one player the difference.

Yeh, as i said if i had the money this week, it would be Kornes for me, but unfortunately don't have it at the moment. Next week i will have enough for Jack to Swan/Corey/Kornes though, so hopefully my midfield can look something like this next week

Swan, Cross, Priddis, Gibbs, Stevens, Palmer, Browne and Bird

Then might look to bring in Corey/K.Cornes or even Bartel for Gibbs, but there are so many variables for this trade to happen or not happen. This game has to many twist for extensive planning IMO.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Yeh, as a i said if i had the money this week, it would be Kornes for me, i unfortunately don't have it at the moment. Next week i will have enough for Jack to Swan/Corey/Kornes then the week after, enough for Gibbs to Swan/Corey/Kornes, even Bartel if he keeps sliding a little. Hopefully my midfield can look something like this in a few weeks:

Swan, Corey, Cross, Priddis, Stevens, Palmer, Browne and Bird

Will have 12 trades left hopefully with 14 rounds left and Rioli, Palmer and Gamble the essential upgrades.

That is one jaw-dropping midfield.

 

[Cruiser23]

That is one jaw-dropping midfield.

Changed my last post a bit, don't want to get to excited because knowing my DT luck, something will go wrong unexpectadly. I was being a little premature.

In a few weeks, i think it would be
Gibbs/Palmer to Corey/Bartel/Kornes
or
Gamble to Chapman

Just have to see what pans out, as i said, to many twist to decided a decision like this at this stage

 

[kangaroo19]

Going to bite the bullet and pick up Kornes this week. Will leave me with a midfield as follows...

Kornes, Ablett, Swan, Thompson, Stevens, Palmer

Browne and Ebert will be emg.

Thoughts?

 

[Kai88]

Going to bite the bullet and pick up Kornes this week. Will leave me with a midfield as follows...

Kornes, Ablett, Swan, Thompson, Stevens, Palmer

Browne and Ebert will be emg.

Thoughts?

That's a very good and settled midfield. As long as you are not overly neglecting other areas of your team, it is a smart trade.

Even without the trade you have a strong midfield, so base your trade on the state of your backs and forwards, backs especially seeing as most are in turmoil.

 

[scarface1987]

Both Cameron Bruce and Sam Mitchell are at their lowest prices (around 367k).

Are they both keepers?

And who is like to have the highest average at year's end?

 

[rossi]

Well I'm looking at getting Goddard in as I can't see him getting much cheaper that 330k even if he doesn't quite get his BE this week. Works well as Dyson and Ellis seem to be bottoming out this week.
Next week its hopefully time for 2 more bagains to come in at their lowest price... Brad Johnson and Milburn - both close to 300k for Porplyzia and Hurn.
In regards to Kornes bottoming out - he is still 425k. Im sure he will be down to near that or 450k again at least once this season it really only takes one or two mediocre games at his price. IMO I can see Goddard, Johnson and Milburn all rising 50k-ish at least over the next 4 rounds, especially with a nice one week break for BJ.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Going to bite the bullet and pick up Kornes this week. Will leave me with a midfield as follows...

Kornes, Ablett, Swan, Thompson, Stevens, Palmer

Browne and Ebert will be emg.

Thoughts?

Exceptional midfield, and its great so long as your backs and forwards aren't hobbling on one leg.

Both Cameron Bruce and Sam Mitchell are at their lowest prices (around 367k).

Are they both keepers?

And who is like to have the highest average at year's end?

Good question. On past seasons I would say Bruce, but given his dip in scores this year so far I'd lean towards Mitchell. The No Passengers did a player profile on Mitchell a couple of weeks ago, and it may be helpful to you.

Well I'm looking at getting Goddard in as I can't see him getting much cheaper that 330k even if he doesn't quite get his BE this week. Works well as Dyson and Ellis seem to be bottoming out this week.
Next week its hopefully time for 2 more bagains to come in at their lowest price... Brad Johnson and Milburn - both close to 300k for Porplyzia and Hurn.

In regards to Kornes bottoming out - he is still 425k. Im sure he will be down to near that or 450k again at least once this season it really only takes one or two mediocre games at his price. IMO I can see Goddard, Johnson and Milburn all rising 50k-ish at least over the next 4 rounds, especially with a nice one week break for BJ.

Your right about Goddard. Assuming he maintains his current average at the minimum (will likely improve on it) then he won't be cheaper this season. If you've got Ellis I'd do an upgrade this week.

As for Kornes, I think you are mistaken. I'll use last season as an example.

In 2007, Kornes averaged 106.4 for the year (higher if you ignore finals games).
Out of 22 rounds he had only 5 scores below 95. These were 94, 84, 61, 70 and 51.
His scores of 61 and 70 were in succession, but all the other scores were separated by scores of 100 or even 110+.
The point is that Kornes is such a DT gun that in the rare case that he has a sub-95 game then he will quickly regain his price by producing a big score. He scored 120+ on eight occasions last season.

Your may be right in saying that he will be probably around $450k sometime in the near future, but thats a whole $25k we're talking about. Anyone can trade in a gun at their proper value, but its rare you get chances to trade in these DT superstars at value prices. With guys of their quality, "bargain" prices are harder to come by because they are so consistent. Kornes this week is one such example.

 

[Captain Dreamer]

I tried to click on the Sammy Mitchell profile but was denied access. Can someone post another link? I'm interested in reading that!

 

[ChopStiXXX]

Ummm, not sure if this is slightly off-topic or not but I need advice.

I have a bit of a situation/dilemma.

I currently have Alwyn Davey in my team and it seems to me that he will be out for the rest of the season. Now, my dilemma is that this week I have a mate that I'm playing against in my league and I will decimate him. I'm just wondering whether it was worthwhile for me to offload Davey now? I was looking to offload him for Robert Murphy BUT the Doggies are playing the Swans. I find it hard-pressed that Murphy will score big against the Swans' style of play. Maybe I should wait for after this game to pick up Murphy (so his value goes down slightly???). What are your thoughts?

This weekend's opponent and for the next 2 weeks I have average opponents so should all be beatable. I have 11 trades left if i use the Davey trade.............

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I tried to click on the Sammy Mitchell profile but was denied access. Can someone post another link? I'm interested in reading that!

Okay, my bad. I'll try and copy and past that into a post in this thread.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

SAM MITCHELL
Take a 25 year old who is at the peak of his career playing in the midfield of one of the heavyweights of the competition, and you get S.Mitchell.

It is amazing as to how far this boy has come.
Carrying a few extra pounds before he got drafted and being bagged by the critics for his slow pace, Hawthorn still took a punt on him and picked him up as a potential midfielder due to his amazing ability in and amongst the packs and at the stoppages.

What a pick they found.

Last year, Sammy averaged 4.2 tackles a game and 5.3 marks a game, which is pretty damn good for a Dream Team player when you add it onto their ball getting ability.

FUNNY STAT
S.Mitchell has averaged 25.7 possessions a game over his past 3 seasons and believe it or not, but he is actually averaging that exact same number this year, 25.7 possessions a game.
In saying this, i think we can automatically mark Sammy down for at least 25 touches a game, on average.

Where does his consistency come from, you may ask?
Well, with 25 touches, even if they are ALL handballs, gives him 50 points.
Add on his usual 5 marks a game and that gives him 65 points.
Then add on his 4 or so tackles and that gives him 81 points.
That, right there, is how he becomes so consistent.

Overall, i can not see S.Mitchell averaging anything lower than 88-90 this year.
That would be the WORST case scenario.
I would lock him down for an average from anywhere between 90-100 and at the price he is going to be at in 2-3 weeks time, he will be too hard to resist.

Also, Hawthorn are currently the third highest Dream Team scoring club, trailing Western Bulldogs and Geelong.
These teams are hard running, possession controlling teams which is the perfect style for a Dream Team coach.

54Dogs noticed this originally but S.Mitchell priced at under $360,000 is a "must have" in anyones eyes.
Look at him in 2 weeks time.
Keep it hush though.

Im going to trade jones for mitchell in a few weeks

Mitchell is a proven gun, and always averages well
2007: Averaged 94
2006: 95
2005: 87

His first 3 games
R1- 115 - This is the usual Mitchell that we can come to expect, getting alot in the middle. Perhaps no hodge, lewis, or crawf helped him out
R2- 82- Watched the game vs Freo, and he looked like he was tagged by Josh carr, and tried going on and off to shake the tag. Still a very good effort.
R3- 42- This will be known as the Brady Rawlings effect. It happens to even the elite midfielders, and this score shouldn't cause too much concern, unless he gets another tag, which is unlikely

His Next 3 Games (average over last 3 games)
Brisbane: Averages 99- Should get a 90 here as well. Black will go to Hodge, whilst the others may go to crawf and lewis, leaving mitchell to roam around.

Richmond: Averages 88- In previous times he has dominated against the tigers, and his averaged is lowered by his 2003 stats. With Richmond quite willingly refusing to tag, and with the amount of DT points conceeded against them, you would think this would be a 100+ game for mitchell


Collingwood:averages 91: This should be a fairly good game for Mitchell. Set to be a free running game, which doesn't concern Mitchell, he does well in both scrappy, and free flowing games. Could be on for a high 80 here against the over-possessive pies.



Pros:

• Will not get the number one tag, but still may get a tag.Hodge, Lewis, Crawford, are all ahead of him in getting the tag
• With the sucess of the hawks, he is sure to get plenty
• Is one of the leaders down at hawk land, and a proven gun
• At such a low price

Cons

• If he does get tagged, he may struggle, as was shown against kangaroos
• Handballs way to much
• May get points taken off him, with Hodge, Craw, Lewis, and dew to a lesser extent
• Plenty of new ball winners in the hawks like Young, Bateman, Guerra may limit his output

Final Verdict, Hit or Miss

HIT - At his price, he is a bargain, and can easilly beat last years average of 90 odd

There are a huge number of midfielders to choose from who average 90+ and will be keepers for the year.

Mitchell differentiates himself from the pack in one way. Value for money.

People who say "I must have X player or Y player no matter what the cost" have no idea about DT. Would you pay 650K for Bartell or Cox? Absolutely not. Everyone has a value price and it just so happens that Mitchell will be well below his in a couple of weeks. Will he average 100. Probably not. Will he average between 90 and 100. Almost certainly. Is he a full year keeper. Absolutely. Not your number 1 or 2 Mid but certainly a player you can rely on for solid scores.

He is playing in a good team with numerous mids which share the ball around a lot so his numbers will remain high. Whilst he receives plenty of attention from other teams this will be no more than last season and may even be reduced if Lewis goes to the next level this year.

I see him as an excellent value choice in 2 weeks time, potentially the best available depending on what the next 2 weeks throw up.

[/b]

Not dramatically I would imagine HBG. Mitchell picks up a lot of his touches and tackles around the stoppages and when the game is in flow he basically moves around the centre square. Because of his lack of pace, the Hawks use him as a link man to get the ball into the corridor where he dishes off to another runner. He also clogs up the corridor when the opposition have the ball which is where he can also pick up tackles. This was his role last year which should continue without much change.

He will push forward and back on occasions but mainly to get to clearance situations.

Footylover18 raised him as a good player to pick up in the not to distant future.

Like Sam Mitchell, Kane Cornes is ultra consistent also and I look forward to picking up both these players soon.

Nice summary.

I'm considering picking up Mitchell this week for Dyson, so I've been looking over his 07/06 numbers.

As theone5 said, his consistency comes from his high possession game style. In 07 he only scored under 20 possessions 5 times (19,18,17,16,13), but still managed to score above 65 in four of those games.

He gathered 30+ disposals on 8 occasions last season, with scores of 101, 109, 118, 119, 125, 126, 127, 130, 135 on those occasions.

Most of the time he gets somewhere between 20-30 possies. Last season he scored in this range 10 times, with scores of 59, 83, 57, 78, 80, 89, 88, 101, 95, 96 (in order of increasing possessions).

So from this we can say that if Mitchell scores over 30 possessions, he is virtually guaranteed to score over 120. When he gets around 20 disposals we can expect a score of ~60 and in games where he gathers around 25 disposals he will normally scores around 85.

Lets apply that to 2008 thus far and see how it compares:
Round 1: 34 disposals - 115 DT points
Round 2: 27 disposals - 82 DT points
Round 3: 16 disposals - 42 DT points
Round 5: 32 disposals - 127 DT points

It seems like he is continuing his historical trend. So long as he continues to rack up the possessions he will continue to be a DT gun.

I guess the only question is whether he will get reduced touches with the Hawks ever-improving midfield? Lewis, Hodge, Young, Sewell, Bateman and co will continue to share the ball around, but will the new additions of Tuck, Rioli, Stokes and others affect Mitchell in an adverse way?

Apologies for the length, I basically copied and pasted some of the main posts from out discussion. Some of these posts are already in the "No Passengers Week 5" thread (stickied on the main board) but there are a couple which I've added.

 

[kangaroo19]

That's a very good and settled midfield. As long as you are not overly neglecting other areas of your team, it is a smart trade.

Even without the trade you have a strong midfield, so base your trade on the state of your backs and forwards, backs especially seeing as most are in turmoil.

Cheers. I think my backs and forwards are ok, and at the moment Griffen is probably to most tradeable as far as point scoring consistency and price. Team atm is...

Backs: Cornes, Shaw, Goddard, Milburn, Symes, Mattner, Wonna (Selwood, SDT)

Mids: Ablett, Thompson, Swan, Griffen, Stevens, Palmer (Bartram, Ebert)

Rucks: Cox, Simmonds (West, Cartledge)

Forwards: JB, Pav, Didak, Cloke, Deledio, Porps, Rioli (Gamble, Tippet)

Have got 15 trades left, but after doing the Kornes trade will have 13. Will have to reassess if Cox/symes/SDT are all out though!

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Cheers. I think my backs and forwards are ok, and at the moment Griffen is probably to most tradeable as far as point scoring consistency and price. Team atm is...

Backs: Cornes, Shaw, Goddard, Milburn, Symes, Mattner, Wonna (Selwood, SDT)

Mids: Ablett, Thompson, Swan, Griffen, Stevens, Palmer (Bartram, Ebert)

Rucks: Cox, Simmonds (West, Cartledge)

Forwards: JB, Pav, Didak, Cloke, Deledio, Porps, Rioli (Gamble, Tippet)

Have got 15 trades left, but after doing the Kornes trade will have 13. Will have to reassess if Cox/symes/SDT are all out though!

Nice team. I'd go ahead with the Cornes trade, and in a few weeks downgrade a cash cow to upgrade Mattner to P.Burgoyne or Bowden (if he gets back to some form).

Your positioned quite nicely.