Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[GrandBlue]

Re: Brownlow Medal

All of you nuts are forgetting Aaron Davey. Not watching Melbourne? He has been absolutely fantastic. He pretty much always hits targets and stands out a stack. He's like a Big Fish in a small pond, he's got no teammates to compete with in the votes.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

All of you nuts are forgetting Aaron Davey. Not watching Melbourne? He has been absolutely fantastic. He pretty much always hits targets and stands out a stack. He's like a Big Fish in a small pond, he's got no teammates to compete with in the votes.

I have him 3 votes in the game he won. You need to be in a winning side to get votes normally.

 

[Big Nasty]

Re: Brownlow Medal

My Votes this year:


10- Nick Dal Santo.

9- Gary Ablett, Nick Riewoldt.

8- Leigh Montagna, Matthew Boyd, Chad Cornes.

7- Brendan Goddard

6- Jonathan Brown, Paul Chapman

5- Matthew Richardson, Bryce Gibbs, Bernie Vince, Scott Pendlebury, Steve Johnson, Daniel Cross.

4- Josh Fraser, Jimmy Bartel, Luke Power, Paul Hasleby, Leon Davis, Tarkyn Lockyer, Adam Selwood, Jarrad Waite, Marc Murphy, Brett Stanton, Jason Winderlich, Joel Corey, Travis Boak, Darren Jolly.

3- Cale Morton, Aaron Sandilands, Lindsay Gilbee, Dean Cox, Dustin Fletcher, Steven Salopek, Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw, Tyson Edwards, Richard Hadley, Brad Ottens, Paul Duffield, Dane Swan, Jarryd Roughead, Chris Judd, David Mundy, Cameron Mooney, Simon Goodwin, Leigh Harding, Peter Burgoyne, Daniel Gia..., Matt Priddis, Sam Mitchell, Daniel Jackson, Lenny Hayes, Patty Ryder, Brent Harvey, David Wirrpanda, Warren Tredrea, Josh Drummond, Matthew Lloyd, Brady Rawlings.


Etc..............

 

[GrandBlue]

Re: Brownlow Medal

In the West Coast game, there was nobody who performed better than Davey. He hit all the hard targets and absolutely ripped West Coast up and because it was a close game, I think Davey gets the 3 votes. I mean it's like last year's Dogs vs Fremantle game, that was a very close game (Dogs won) and the votes concluded: Peter Bell- 3 votes, Brett Peake- 2 votes, Mitch Hahn- 1 vote.

 

[Big Nasty]

Re: Brownlow Medal

]In the West Coast game[/B], there was nobody who performed better than Davey. He hit all the hard targets and absolutely ripped West Coast up and because it was a close game, I think Davey gets the 3 votes. I mean it's like last year's Dogs vs Fremantle game, that was a very close game (Dogs won) and the votes concluded: Peter Bell- 3 votes, Brett Peake- 2 votes, Mitch Hahn- 1 vote.

He was hardly bloody seen that game. I have him on 2 votes this season, which is more than sufficient.

 

[TWILL]

Re: Brownlow Medal

None of you guys have been doing the votes correctly...... Goodes hasn't recieved a single vote from you guys ...... And I have him leading my tally well ahead of the pack ....... my Brownlow medal tally is based on umpire preferences and not people like (you guys) who think you are footy experts and think you know who the umpires are giving votes too !! The umpires aren't going to hand Ablett a Brownlow..... actually the umpires have been told not to give him any votes (but not make it too obvious) because there is soo much money coming for him in betting, the books and the AFL have struck a deal to ensure he doesn't win it ........ssshhh *INSIDE INFORMATION*

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

None of you guys have been doing the votes correctly...... Goodes hasn't recieved a single vote from you guys ...... And I have him leading my tally well ahead of the pack ....... my Brownlow medal tally is based on umpire preferences and not people like (you guys) who think you are footy experts and think you know who the umpires are giving votes too !! The umpires aren't going to hand Ablett a Brownlow..... actually the umpires have been told not to give him any votes (but not make it too obvious) because there is soo much money coming for him in betting, the books and the AFL have struck a deal to ensure he doesn't win it ........ssshhh *INSIDE INFORMATION*

There isn't a law that requires 5-7 dots to be used instead of a full stop or the enter button.

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal

None of you guys have been doing the votes correctly...... Goodes hasn't recieved a single vote from you guys ...... And I have him leading my tally well ahead of the pack ....... my Brownlow medal tally is based on umpire preferences and not people like (you guys) who think you are footy experts and think you know who the umpires are giving votes too !! The umpires aren't going to hand Ablett a Brownlow..... actually the umpires have been told not to give him any votes (but not make it too obvious) because there is soo much money coming for him in betting, the books and the AFL have struck a deal to ensure he doesn't win it ........ssshhh *INSIDE INFORMATION*

i wouldn't be surprised if its a big conspiracy. the brownlow is so high profile and lots of money is involved. when i give my votes however, i try to think like an umpire and don't just go by stats. so the goodes' and simon black's tend to be watched more closely.

 

[Shut up Flanders]

Re: Brownlow Medal

My top 20 after 7 rounds:

12: Dal Santo

11: Ablett

10: Stanton

9: Mitchell

8: M.Murphy, Goddard

7: Vince, Gibbs, Hasleby, Gilbee

6: Pearce, Judd, Swan, C.Cornes, Chapman, Montagna, N.Riewoldt

5: Kerr, Lockyer, J.Brown, Simpson

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Re: Brownlow Medal

My results after round 7.

14. Ablett

12. Dal Santo

7. Higgins, Pendlebury, Chapman, J. Brown, Gilbee

6. Judd, Tredrea, Kerr, Watson, Vince, R. Shaw, Goddard, Hasleby, N. Riewoldt

5. Ar. Davey, Gibbs, S. Johnson

4. Mitchell, M. Murphy, Lockyer, Roughead, Sewell, Johnstone, A. Selwood, Jackson, Ray, Stanton, Lloyd, J. Selwood, Power, Brogan

3. Wiggins, Harding, P. Burgoyne, Didak, C. Bolton, Griffen, Winderlich, C. Jones, Adcock, Dangerfield, J. Mcveigh, Harvey , Hayes, Ryder, J. Riewoldt, Pavlich, Goodwin, Swan, Salopek, Bartel, Sandilands, Waite, Simpson, Cooney, C. Morton, Lecras, Montagna

2. McLeod, Green, Boyd, Koschitzke, Deledio, Lake, Patfull, Guerra, O’Brien, Chaplin, Corey, Richardson, Ziebell, D. Cox, Mundy, Mooney, Fevola, S. Hill, Kirk, Monfries, Wells

1. Edwards, Gilbert, McIntosh, Pearce, Fisher, Fraser, Jolly, Bradshaw, B. Johnson, D. Fletcher, Hurn, Reilly, Akermanis, Sylvia, L. Hansen, Gram, McPhee, Moss, Swallow, Black, Boak, Thompson, Bruce

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Re: Brownlow Medal

My results after round 8.

14. Ablett

12. Dal Santo

9. Tredrea, Judd

7. Higgins, Pendlebury, Chapman, J. Brown, Gilbee, R. Shaw, Watson

6. Kerr, Vince, Goddard, Hasleby, N. Riewoldt, Pavlich, Bartel, Ar. Davey, M. Murphy, Hayes

5. Gibbs, S. Johnson, Sewell, J. Selwood, Boyd

4. Mitchell, Lockyer, Roughead, Johnstone, A. Selwood, Jackson, Ray, Stanton, Lloyd, Power, Brogan, D. Cox, Waite

3. Wiggins, Harding, P. Burgoyne, Didak, C. Bolton, Griffen, Winderlich, C. Jones, Adcock, Dangerfield, J. Mcveigh, Harvey, Ryder, J. Riewoldt, Goodwin, Swan, Salopek, Sandilands, Simpson, Cooney, C. Morton, Lecras, Montagna, Akermanis, Goodes, Bradshaw, Sherman, Koschitzke

2. McLeod, Green, Deledio, Lake, Patfull, Guerra, O’Brien, Chaplin, Corey, Richardson, Ziebell, Mundy, Mooney, Fevola, S. Hill, Kirk, Monfries, Wells, Bateman, Kelly, S. Tuck, Boak, Pearce

1. Edwards, Gilbert, McIntosh, Fisher, Fraser, Jolly, B. Johnson, D. Fletcher, Hurn, Reilly, Sylvia, L. Hansen, Gram, McPhee, Moss, Swallow, Black, Thompson, Bruce, Mckay

 

[the_big_sav]

Re: Brownlow Medal

how have you guys done the last 2 st kilda games?

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Round 8 Brownlow votes Running Total:


13: Ablett

12: Dal Santo

11: Montagna

9: Mitchell, Tredrea, Judd, Gibbs, Goddard

8: Bartel, SJohnson,

7: Chapman,

6: JBrown, Gilbee, NRiewoldt, Pavlich, Hayes

5: Higgins, Pendlebury, Lockyer, Haselby, Goodes

4: Edwards, Jolly, Cross, PBurgoyne, Kerr, Pearce, Bowden, Vince, CCornes, RShaw, Winderlich, JSelwood, Power, Sandilands, LeCras, Cox, Boak, KSimpson

etc.

 

[jamzee]

Re: Brownlow Medal

interesting thread, will be great to look at before brownlow night, you guys should post the votes you awarded for the week under your post for how much the players are on

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal

how have you guys done the last 2 st kilda games?

saint vs pies i had: 3 - Montagna, 2 - Dal Santo, 1 - Riewoldt.
saint vs bombers: 3 - Hayes. and 2 and 1 between Montagna and Watson. but wouldn't be surprised if one of the running type players from essendon got noticed, like Lovett.

anybody watch the saturday night games this w/e? Brisbane vs Adelaide and Sydney vs West Coast. how do people think votes will go there?

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

saint vs pies i had: 3 - Montagna, 2 - Dal Santo, 1 - Riewoldt.
saint vs bombers: 3 - Hayes. and 2 and 1 between Montagna and Watson. but wouldn't be surprised if one of the running type players from essendon got noticed, like Lovett.

anybody watch the saturday night games this w/e? Brisbane vs Adelaide and Sydney vs West Coast. how do people think votes will go there?

Sydney v West Coast, probably
3 - Adam Goodes
2 - Dean Cox/Josh Kennedy
1 - Rhyce Shaw

thats what I think the umps will do, I reckon (personally),

3 - Rhyce Shaw
2 - Josh Kennedy
1 - Adam Goodes.

I think the 3,1 will go to a sydney player and the 2 to a west coast player just because of the close game.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

As my name suggests I follow the brownlow pretty keenly. Some of you may have seen some of my views when I gave them on Sept 14 last year and that was the last and only time I've logged onto this site until now.

I have again been following 2009 closely and have the following top 5 after round 8 :

Judd 12.5 ( I give half votes rather than always 0 or 1 etc )
Ablett 11.5
Dal santo 10
Mitchell 10
Steve Johnson 8

Goodes is on 7.5 and he polls like something never seen b4 so is good value.

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

As my name suggests I follow the brownlow pretty keenly. Some of you may have seen some of my views when I gave them on Sept 14 last year and that was the last and only time I've logged onto this site until now.

I have again been following 2009 closely and have the following top 5 after round 8 :

Judd 12.5 ( I give half votes rather than always 0 or 1 etc )
Ablett 11.5
Dal santo 10
Mitchell 10
Steve Johnson 8

Goodes is on 7.5 and he polls like something never seen b4 so is good value.

good stuff BK...love your work Would it be possible to see your top 20 at this stage?

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

As my name suggests I follow the brownlow pretty keenly. Some of you may have seen some of my views when I gave them on Sept 14 last year and that was the last and only time I've logged onto this site until now.

I have again been following 2009 closely and have the following top 5 after round 8 :

Judd 12.5 ( I give half votes rather than always 0 or 1 etc )
Ablett 11.5
Dal santo 10
Mitchell 10
Steve Johnson 8

Goodes is on 7.5 and he polls like something never seen b4 so is good value.

People should check out THIS guy. He predicted a Bartel win in 2007 and people raised eyebrows, yet Bartel proceeded to win.

Although he lost a little bit of credibility in 2008 with THIS thread, again predicting Bartel to win, but this time it all going horribly wrong.

To BK, I agree with you on Judd, I reckon he will shit it in. But can I request how many votes you have for Goddard, Kerr, Cox and LeCras...

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think that you have mixed me up with Brownlow Guru who was posting last year and had theories on the Brownlow. He was the one who tipped Bartel in 2007 and rated him as a 5-4 chance last year.

I have gone back into my posting on Sept 14 last year and have copied it below ( looks like I was pretty spot on except for Riewoldt who was stiff to miss votes in rnd 22 when he kicked 5g and 4pts and didn't get a vote ) :

Alright guys, I'm a very keen brownlow punter and have followed the medal for years. I have read thru lots of the comments on this website and thought that I'd give you my ideas. I have put heaps of work into studying this years medal and feel that there's super value with the team most votes to be sued in multis with the TAB.

I reckon that there are only 5 players who can win the medal and can poll 20 votes +. They are Bartel ( 25 ), Cooney ( 24 ), Ablett ( 23 ), Harvey ( 23 ) and Black ( 22 ). The odds are too skinny to find the winner and I have taken quinellas involving these 5.

In terms of team votes I reckon that Black, Cooney and Riewoldt are all morals. Swan, Judd, Richo, Pavlich and Thompson should all win. Mitchell and Bartel are the other 2 I like and Mcveigh from Ess is a value option. I have taken 10 leg multis without Mcveigh at 100-1 + and then an 8 leg without Bartel and Mitchell and 2 nine legs with each of them with the other 8. Super value on these multis. I once took almost a 6 figure sum off Mark Read the year Harvey won his first medal as I took an 8,6 and 4 leg multi and they all got up. He stopped multis after that year !

I think that Black at $1.85 over Selwood is a living certainty. Black at $3.75 to lead at 1/2 way is a great bet as I have him on 16-17 after round 11. He could have won the medal with a few better games in the 2nd half.

Cooney is massive value to win the medal but I fear that the umps may miss him in some games. Bartel won't be missed and is the obvious option. I would lay Gazza all day if I was a bookie. He missed 5 games including the game he was injured which is almost 1/4 of the season !

Good luck to all punters and I am keen to hear any views on my thoughts.

I have studied it up hard and have not just looked at stats.

I pretty much gave a very good steer in the quinella which saluted for me at $130 ( Cooney and Black ) and whilst Bartel was disappointing I cleaned up on Cooney plus the quinella. I also hit all head to heads and group bets involving Black hard which all won as well as him to lead at the halfway mark.

You can probably see why I'm smiling now and am keenly awaiting this years count - 14 weeks to go !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I'd rather not give out my top 20 at the moment as there is still a fair way to go and I am very keen to get on various guys for most votes at their clubs.
To answer the question though I have Goddard on 6, Cox on 6 ( risky with the way he polls though ), Kerr 4.5 ( polls like Goodes ! ) and whilst I have not studied up on Lecras as I do about the top 3-5 per club and didn't have him in that at WC at the start of the year I felt his games against Brisbane ( WC lost ) and Melbourne were very good so he is possibly on 3 ( 1 for the Bris game and 2 for the Melb game ) but he did only poll 2 last year and has 3 votes in his short career.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

As my name suggests I follow the brownlow pretty keenly. Some of you may have seen some of my views when I gave them on Sept 14 last year and that was the last and only time I've logged onto this site until now.

I have again been following 2009 closely and have the following top 5 after round 8 :

Judd 12.5 ( I give half votes rather than always 0 or 1 etc )
Ablett 11.5
Dal santo 10
Mitchell 10
Steve Johnson 8

Goodes is on 7.5 and he polls like something never seen b4 so is good value.

Can I get your quick breakdown of how Mitchell is on 10?
I have him on 8 (Edited from 7) most likely at best (Edited from maximum) and I've watched most games that involve the Hawks.


This was my analysis after round 6.

I'm not sure how you slotted him in for 1 on the weekend, with Roughhead (8 goals), Fevola (8 goals), Sewell/Judd - clearly in front on the weekend.



Round 5 - he got 40 possessions - mostly of half back. He will be fighting with Moss and Sewell for the 3 votes. However, lets say he gets 3 there.



Will not get votes for rounds 1,2,4.

At best, he will get 1 for round 1, but that is unlikely as Ablett, Ottens, S.Johnson dominated.



I thought he was very good round 3 and will probably get the 3, but will be fighting for it.



I put Mitchell on 7 maximum, with perhaps no more then 5.

Round 7 - 0 votes
Round 8 - I thought Pavlich was BOG for a losing team. No other players really stood out, although Mitchell was good. I'd say anywhere between 1-3 for this match.

So I think 7 is where Mitch is at right now.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I've got the following for Mitchell :

R1 vs Geel 1.5 ( he was very good and was a major part of the Haw comeback )
R3 vs North 2.25 ( 37 touches and 1 goal )
R5 vs WC 2.5 ( awesome with 40 )
R6 vs Carl 1.25 ( hard game to give votes with Roughy, Fev, Judd, Sewell and him all vying for votes )
R8 vs Freo 2 (I watched the game and he looked very good, Sewell and Pav both very good as well but he did have 34 touches )
Total 9.5 ( I had actually downgraded him in the Carl game but didn't total it )

I have mild concerns re how he polls so would not be keen to be on him against Judd or Ablett.

 

[the_big_sav]

Re: Brownlow Medal

i have at the moment

ablett 12-13
dal santo 11 to 13
montagna 8 to 13
stevie j 10-12
mitchell 6 to 11
bartel 5 to 10
pearce 6 to 10
gibbs 8 to 10
riewoldt 4 to 9
judd 6 to 8


i dont give excact votes. i do 3, 2, 1, 1 or 2, 2 or 3 and maybe 1. thats why the votes are a bit weird. last year using this i got pritty close, ended up being in the black by a fair bit by the end of the night. mostly doing most votes for x club or most votes in group.

at the moment i have about 44 players that im watching but as a player hits form i add them and go over my results to see how they faired. its probably not the best theory or system (going over and changing original ideas and votes) but yeh i think it works for me.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Interesting.

I use a very similar theory in that I nominate 3 or so players per club to analyse at the start of the year and I add players to the list if they hit form during the season and go back thru the stats to see where I think they are at.