AFL Round 18

[Cuzz09]

Just had a quick look on UniTAB and saw Adelaide paying $1.55 to beat Richmond.

Still aiming for a finals spot I think Adelaide will smash them.

Also Fremantle @ $1.36 is ridiculous... I was thinking $1.10 at best.

Im going to load up on a multi:

Adelaide H2H ($1.55)
Fremantle H2H ($1.36)

$$$$ @ $2.10


Saints @ $1.18 to beat Ess is good too.
Hawks @ $1.36 to beat Port is "delicious"

Brisbane $1.55
Melbourne $2.10

thoughts, tips and bets here folks

 

[Majinbuu]

$20 on freo at 1.36 on sportsbet

 

[mike262]

You really dont give us much credit in any of your posts.

Fremantle struggling post barlow and the game should be closer than 1.10 odds. I think freo should be about 1.50. West Coast always seem to get more scoring shots than freo in derbys but just cant convert, with lecras in some form we might have a chance. Our 2nd halve fade outs are a worry tho.

I think West Coast leading at 1/2 time would be a good bet, maby even a win.

 

[daics_35]

Carlton are 5 bucks to beat the Pies, thats bloody good odds for a team playing their fierce rival.

 

[blackspider]

Early thoughts are

Coll over 39.5
WB over 39.5
Geelong

Anyone know how much collingwood/wb/geelong are paying h2h?

 

[flea29]

Looks like a common theme here to go against your own side so I'll get on the bandwagon...the fact that Brisbane are favored to beat Melbourne is just Redonkulous!

 

[soho]

Anyone know how much collingwood/wb/geelong are paying h2h?

Essendon 5.00
St Kilda 1.17

Collingwood 1.20
Carlton 4.50

Port Adelaide 3.30
Hawthorn 1.33

Sydney 4.25
Geelong 1.22

Brisbane 1.80
Melbourne 2.00

Richmond 2.35
Adelaide 1.60

Western Bulldogs 1.18
North Melbourne 4.75

Fremantle 1.37
West Coast 3.05



pies + cats + dogs = $1.73

saints + pies + hawks + cats + crows + dogs + freo = $5.89

will be loading up on saints friday night... play things by ear from there...



hope everyone's 'value betting' strategies are going well... imo you're better off picking winners than losing teams which represent 'good value'...

currently up $3k

 

[JuDDysthacaptain]

St Kilda 1-39 would be worth looking at for friday night since Essendon match up well.
Geelong
Dogs
Freo

 

[X_box_X]

LOL @ those picking Geelong at those odds.

Sydney won't lose heavily two weeks in a row.

Will get within four goals, easily. I even think they'll win.

 

[beez]

Swans +29.5/Carl/WC @ 31.58

 

[GoodesStuff]

Yeah I agree. I think the swans are over the odds this week too.

But the bet of the week looks to be Carlton. I rate them about a $4.10 shot but the bookies have them at around $5.10. They win this match more than 1 in every 5 attempts easily

pies + cats + dogs = $1.73

saints + pies + hawks + cats + crows + dogs + freo = $5.89

will be loading up on saints friday night... play things by ear from there...



hope everyone's 'value betting' strategies are going well... imo you're better off picking winners than losing teams which represent 'good value'...

currently up $3k

IMO that pies/dogs/cats bet is terrible...

You can not win in the long term just loading up on these so called good things, Im sure plenty others are with me on that. Yes, you may have got lucky because after all they SHOULD win. But the law of averages and mathematics shows that you will eventually lose, and it only takes one hit to lose it all. By betting for value, you will be able to win if you have your markets right, and are not concerend with one result, as you would be though with your strategy.

 

[jimmyclean]

IMO that pies/dogs/cats bet is terrible...

You can not win in the long term just loading up on these so called good things, Im sure plenty others are with me on that. Yes, you may have got lucky because after all they SHOULD win. But the law of averages and mathematics shows that you will eventually lose, and it only takes one hit to lose it all. By betting for value, you will be able to win if you have your markets right, and are not concerend with one result, as you would be though with your strategy.

I totally agree, how was that safe multi a couple of weeks ago with geelong against the crows? did you include sydney or north in last weeks safe bets?

I don't know too much about other sports, but AFL is very much a game where any team can win on the day.

Just my opinion but I think North are actually a half decent shot to beat WB this week, they still have finals to play for and match up nicely if they don't have half their backline out.

 

[Lensen]

Good luck guys. All these arguments have been made to soho but he seems to be the knowledgeable tipster and therefore doesn't have to worry about value.

 

[soho]

IMO that pies/dogs/cats bet is terrible...

You can not win in the long term just loading up on these so called good things, Im sure plenty others are with me on that. Yes, you may have got lucky because after all they SHOULD win. But the law of averages and mathematics shows that you will eventually lose, and it only takes one hit to lose it all. By betting for value, you will be able to win if you have your markets right, and are not concerend with one result, as you would be though with your strategy.

1. the pies cats dogs bet was in response to the poster above me...

2. trying to derisk your gambling through systematically placing perceived value on games is stupid... games are not played 5 times, so a team cannot win 1 game out of 5... games are played once, and a team wins it or loses it EVERY time...

my betting history speaks for itself, just look back through my posts... i dont pick value, i pick winners, as there is no value on a losing team, i dont care what your theory says... my last bet i posted on this forum made me $2k... cats, pies and dogs made me a similar amount this week, although unfortunately i could not alert the forum to the 'great value' offered by the bet because i was red carded, it is elsewhere for all to see...

i dont care if your system works, in fact i hope it does and im happy for you if you are making money... at the end of the day, you're GAMBLING... there is no unrisky form of gambling /end.

my tip: if you're going to play, play to win... this means you could lose, but thats what gambling is all about... just dont try fool yourself that you're on a winner with this 'value system betting'... i know plenty about 'law of averages', and the 'law of averages' says you have to be right some of the time and your system means shit...

/rant

 

[happy punter]

The showdown result yesterday shows that when it comes to derbies = throw the form book out the window

Careful with the Dockers, not a cert by any means

 

[GoodesStuff]

trying to derisk your gambling through systematically placing perceived value on games is stupid... games are not played 5 times, so a team cannot win 1 game out of 5... games are played once, and a team wins it or loses it EVERY time...

That particular game is not played 5 times, obviously! But say over the rest of the season you saw 5 games very much like the Pies/Blues matchup. The idea is that you would be able to make a profit from those 5 games, thus one result is not significant because you are looking to the long term and if you are right you will be ahead in the END. You don't seem familiar with this approach though, as you are just another typical mug focused on the short term, and looking for the next good thing to put the account on, until you eventually slip up... No??

 

[McCrann]

The showdown result yesterday shows that when it comes to derbies = throw the form book out the window

Careful with the Dockers, not a cert by any means

I am really amazed by those ready to jump on the Dockers. This is the Eagles biggest game of the year!

Dockers were beaten by Richmond & smashed by the Dogs. Smashed.

Also, struggled to beat one of the worst travelling sides in the comp - Melbourne - despite giving themselves a 7 goal headstart. Don't kid yourself - the Dockers are in terrible form and will struggle to hang on to a home final from here.

Only the tough draws of their rivals means they should remain top 6.

 

[McCrann]

That particular game is not played 5 times, obviously! But say over the rest of the season you saw 5 games very much like the Pies/Blues matchup. The idea is that you would be able to make a profit from those 5 games, thus one result is not significant because you are looking to the long term and if you are right you will be ahead in the END. You don't seem familiar with this approach though, as you are just another typical mug focused on the short term, and looking for the next good thing to put the account on, until you eventually slip up... No??

I think thats a bit unfair mate - there's nothing wrong with picking winners if you're good at it.

Looking for 'value' is one way to go about it, I've got no problem with that - but there's no need to pot someone else.

I don't know how you'd refer to my "betting strategy" but on the weekend just past I liked the following AFL bets.

1. W. Bulldogs (-22.5) @ $1.91 - Easiest bet of the round - Dogs were always going to smash a poor Dockers side (have you seen their outs?) Never in doubt.
2. Collingwood (-39.5) @ $1.91 - Same here - Tigers missing players - comeon, have we all forgotten how bad they were at the start of the year? Never in doubt.
3. Hawthorn (+5.5) @ $1.91 - Their form line has been superior to ours in recent weeks. No doubt about it. We didn't deserve the draw in the end, we were lucky, but this bet was still a good one. Never really in doubt.
4. West Coast (H2H) @ $1.91 - Carlton similarly woeful, I expected West Coast to sneak this based on their confidence from beating Essendon.
5. Adelaide (-22.5) @ $1.91 - Power have been woeful, Crows in good form - they beat Geelong afterall.

Didn't like the lines in the other matches. Too much Geelong (51.5) - if they had just an average day they may not cover this line. North (-15.5) - North aren't that good and the Bombers have been due to show something. I remember well the fact they've beaten us the last 2 times they played us - and we're a hard team to beat.

Melb (+10.5) - Dean Bailey had an 8-2 win/loss record against interstate teams at the MCG going into this match - now 9-2. In other words. Very good considering how terrible Melbourne have been since he's been there. They're a developing side. However, listening to the commentary of Freo v Melb last week the commentators were convinced Melbourne would be a spent force whoever they played this week. Taking that into account, I couldn't touch this game.

Ok, so I got 3/5 of the ones I liked right. Lucky for me, on this occasion I only touched the top 2. Very tempted by the Hawks, but in the end I couldn't give myself mixed feelings on a Friday night at the game so stayed away.

Really liked West Coast, but I have this rule about being very very careful about ever backing the worst team in the league (Applied to Richmond a few times this year at my cost - Port Adelaide and Brisbane spring to mind - very close to backing the Tiges in both of these games but didn't at the last minute). So stayed away from that.

As for Adelaide, withdrawal of Goodwin (Who i really rate) and the fact it is a Showdown meant its another game too hot to handle. Why ruin a day that I was sure was going to start off very well?

And for the record - I posted some of this here last Wednesday (July 21)
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18436686&postcount=734

Point is, I like line betting and I do alright at it - particularly the last 6-7 weeks things seems to have been going very well - which helps with Sportingbet.

 

[soho]

That particular game is not played 5 times, obviously! But say over the rest of the season you saw 5 games very much like the Pies/Blues matchup. The idea is that you would be able to make a profit from those 5 games, thus one result is not significant because you are looking to the long term and if you are right you will be ahead in the END. You don't seem familiar with this approach though, as you are just another typical mug focused on the short term, and looking for the next good thing to put the account on, until you eventually slip up... No??

im very familiar with the 'value' system approach to betting, and i think its a load of shit... im not a professional gambler, i never said i was... i am a mug punter, i dont pretend to be anything else... i accept that i'll have winners and i'll have losers, i just try my best to pick the winners and stay clear of the losers...

i hope you have it all made in the shade, i hope you have the golden system that lets you print money for free... im glad for you, you've done it, you've made it as a human being, you've beat the bookies and you're laughing all the way to the bank...

i subscribe to the theory that no such system exists...

gambling is gambling

risk is risk

loltypo

 

[GoodesStuff]

I think thats a bit unfair mate - there's nothing wrong with picking winners if you're good at it.

Looking for 'value' is one way to go about it, I've got no problem with that - but there's no need to pot someone else.

Yeah it is one way to go about it

But in reference to me potting soho I just responded to this comment that HE made ealier.

hope everyone's 'value betting' strategies are going well... imo you're better off picking winners than losing teams which represent 'good value'...

currently up $3k

But as Lenny says "soho seems to be the knowledgeable tipster and therefore doesn't have to worry about value".

So good luck to him...

 

[soho]

So good luck to him...

thanks buddy!

hope your flawless system brings you many riches and plenty of women...

 

[krusher]

Yeah I agree. I think the swans are over the odds this week too.

But the bet of the week looks to be Carlton. I rate them about a $4.10 shot but the bookies have them at around $5.10. They win this match more than 1 in every 5 attempts easily

IMO that pies/dogs/cats bet is terrible...

You can not win in the long term just loading up on these so called good things, Im sure plenty others are with me on that. Yes, you may have got lucky because after all they SHOULD win. But the law of averages and mathematics shows that you will eventually lose, and it only takes one hit to lose it all. By betting for value, you will be able to win if you have your markets right, and are not concerend with one result, as you would be though with your strategy.

yeah carlton might win this game 1 in 5 but not when they are playing so poorly and the pies are playing so well - have you been watching the respective teams lately ? i am a carlton tragic but collingwood are the best 1.20 (Betstar) pop i have seen for a while and an absolute must in all of next weekends multis


they just win the game...

 

[ClarkeM]

Out of thought Multi for a bit of fun...
Put $10 on
Geelong @ 1.20
Collingwood @ 1.15
West Coast @ 3.05
Western Bulldogs @ 1.15
Melbourne @ 2.00

Returning at $96.80

 

[adii_7]

ess
dogs over
adelaide
west coast

@ wateva

total scores:
pies over 121
dogs over 121

 

[uptheblues]

Early thoughts: Carlton Collingwood SHOULD be closer than expected, HOPEFULLY. lol. and i like the West Coast +19.5 and Essendon +31.5 line