Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

[KardiniaPark]

you must be Jewish

That's some of your best work

 

[char]

Just been looking at the Port market over the last day - Westhoff came in a little bit yesterday but Boak's come down today (albeit not by much). Overall they haven't changed anywhere near as much as the other teams have. Would this be because no one's too sure on which way it's going to go and it's not a popular bet, or because the bookies have it spot on with a Boak/Westhoff split.. or both?

For the record, I've gone with Westhoff in some of my multis - I'm thinking he'll at least tie with one of Boak/Gray, but out of the 3 is more likely to sneak home.

 

[Stockdale]

Just been looking at the Port market over the last day - Westhoff came in a little bit yesterday but Boak's come down today (albeit not by much). Overall they haven't changed anywhere near as much as the other teams have. Would this be because no one's too sure on which way it's going to go and it's not a popular bet, or because the bookies have it spot on with a Boak/Westhoff split.. or both?

For the record, I've gone with Westhoff in some of my multis - I'm thinking he'll at least tie with one of Boak/Gray, but out of the 3 is more likely to sneak home.

Westhoff is a clear pick for me he has two possible BOGs against Adel and Melb, at the very least he gets 5 from these matches in my opinion. Then he is a chance to poll against Richmond too. I have him at 17s from during the year so im feeling good about him

 

[Dr Awkward]

Westhoff is ok value. He should be on either 5 or 6 votes, maybe 4 if he is unlucky. Gray, Boak, Rodan, Chaplin all likely to be on about 4 votes, Gray and Boak possibly 1 or 2 more than that. Boak good polling history is a worry but anybody serious would have been on Westhoff during the season and will have been able to hedge.

 

[Wickzki]

I have Port votes as:

Robbie Gray (5) - Travis Boak, Troy Chaplin, Justin Westhoff (3), Jay Schulz, Hamish Hartlett (2), Kane Cornes, Domenic Cassisi (1)

Am considering putting on a multi - most vote team: Franklin - Pavlich - Rockliff - Cox - Martin

Is Cox any chance or is Priddis a sure thing?

 

[bob7965]

I have Port votes as:

Robbie Gray (5) - Travis Boak, Troy Chaplin, Justin Westhoff (3), Jay Schulz, Hamish Hartlett (2), Kane Cornes, Domenic Cassisi (1)

Am considering putting on a multi - most vote team: Franklin - Pavlich - Rockliff - Cox - Martin

Is Cox any chance or is Priddis a sure thing?

I wouldn't worry about cox when you have Franklin in there

 

[KardiniaPark]

I wouldn't worry about cox when you have Franklin in there

There is a joke in there somewhere...

 

[Rourke]

Geelong, anyone?

Just noticed that in Sportsbet's market for the team of the winning player, Geelong is $251 (only Port is longer) despite the fact that it will get more total votes than any team except Collingwood.

So I went through my vote projections, and sure enough I have Selwood leading on 16 (but ineligible) and then Bartel & Chapman on about 11 (alongside Ablett!).

Does anyone think the $251 is worth speculating on, in case the umpires have picked a new Cat to lavish votes on as they did with Jimmy in 2007?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Re: Geelong, anyone?

Just noticed that in Sportsbet's market for the team of the winning player, Geelong is $251 (only Port is longer) despite the fact that it will get more total votes than any team except Collingwood.

So I went through my vote projections, and sure enough I have Selwood leading on 16 (but ineligible) and then Bartel & Chapman on about 11 (alongside Ablett!).

Does anyone think the $251 is worth speculating on, in case the umpires have picked a new Cat to lavish votes on as they did with Jimmy in 2007?

No. They hardly lavished Bartel, he deserved it.

 

[Rourke]

Re: Geelong, anyone?

They hardly lavished Bartel, he deserved it.

Completely agree with that, I was on for plenty at $10 before CD's predictions were published. But he was consistently chosen by the umps when journos etc had gone for more variety (e.g. Ablett)

 

[KardiniaPark]

Re: Geelong, anyone?

Completely agree with that, I was on for plenty at $10 before CD's predictions were published. But he was consistently chosen by the umps when journos etc had gone for more variety (e.g. Ablett)

OK, so what makes you think someone at Geelong is going to overpoll by at least 15 votes?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Franklin - Pavlich - Rockliff - Cox - Martin

Is there a special dividend if none of the legs win?

 

[The BRICKSTER]

I have Cox beating Priddis but I am concerned by his poor polling history.

Thoughts?

 

[denitofinito]

Is there a special dividend if none of the legs win?

Surely that's a team without favourites bet?

 

[char]

I have Cox beating Priddis but I am concerned by his poor polling history.

Thoughts?

Priddis comfortably for me. Mostly because of Cox's poor polling history combined with Priddis' excellent polling history. Priddis also has a decent shot at sneaking a couple of additional votes in WCE losses I reckon.

I've been wrong before though

 

[pmalcolm1984]

Any feeling as to whether the NSW/Vic Tab additional exotic markets (H2H's, Groups) will be the same as Unitab's?

 

[stuziman]

Any feeling as to whether the NSW/Vic Tab additional exotic markets (H2H's, Groups) will be the same as Unitab's?

I wouldnt hold off if only opening an account is holding you back.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Im really hoping a betting shop opens up a Pendlebury vs Goodes H2H

 

[twarby]

Im really hoping a betting shop opens up a Pendlebury vs Goodes H2H

most have similar to that, its called betting on who wins the toss in cricket

 

[TheNextBigThing]

most have similar to that, its called betting on who wins the toss in cricket

You really are an idiot

 

[twarby]

i'm an idiot?

you are the one who wants action on a coin flip

 

[TheNextBigThing]

i'm an idiot?

you are the one who wants action on a coin flip

It may be similar odds to a coin flip but thats the only way you can compare the 2, a coin flip is simply luck while with a Pendlebury vs Goodes H2H you have had the entire year to do form on it, I think the odds will be something like $1.90 each, but in my opinion Pendlebury will beat Goodes which is why im keen to see a market on it.

So in summing up, yes your an idiot

 

[twarby]

don't think you have watched too many Swans matches

 

[KardiniaPark]

 

[TheNextBigThing]

I've seen enough, from Round 18 onwards Goodes has been brilliant and that is what is in most peoples memories and in my opinion thats why he is second favourite. I think Pendlebury has had a much more consistent year and will still poll more than Goodes.