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Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)
- Thread starter Mudeo
- Start date
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pmalcolm1984
Debutant
Yeah agreed. Got an account, max credit card deposit per day is $200 I think and $200 per week in first three months or something. Hardly worthwhile. Just was wondering if I should be set to go if VIC/NSW Tab puts up same markets.
Something around the $1.90 mark, Sportingbet have Goodes $5.50 the win and Pendlebury $7.50, if they put up the H2H market I reckon i'll be able to get pretty good odds
So the 13-14 he'll poll before round 18 aren't as important as the 13-14 he'll poll from Round 18 onwards?
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Re: Geelong, anyone?
Hmmm, so this is where it gets embarrassing. Those 100+ Geelong votes have to go somewhere, just like the 100+ Collingwood votes and the 80-85 Carlton votes. There's a lot of uncertainty in where those votes will go, and the year after his Brownlow Jimmy Bartel underpolled by about 15 votes.
But when you put it that way I think I'll keep the money in my pocket instead of burning it. Especially since I have Pendles winning with about 30.
But just you wait, I'll be reviving this when James Kelly bobs up in the top three! (hmmm ....)
Hmmm, so this is where it gets embarrassing. Those 100+ Geelong votes have to go somewhere, just like the 100+ Collingwood votes and the 80-85 Carlton votes. There's a lot of uncertainty in where those votes will go, and the year after his Brownlow Jimmy Bartel underpolled by about 15 votes.
But when you put it that way I think I'll keep the money in my pocket instead of burning it. Especially since I have Pendles winning with about 30.
But just you wait, I'll be reviving this when James Kelly bobs up in the top three! (hmmm ....)
Re: Geelong, anyone?
This is the worst piece of Brownlow analysis I've seen on this entire thread, and given the quality of the thread this year that's saying something. One post I was going to ignore, that you're persisting with it into a third post is a serious worry for your finances.
Geelong do have a player who has the ability to poll lots of votes this year. his name is Joel Selwood. Their 100 or so votes will be achieved by Selwood polling 20, Johnson and Bartel polling 10-15 and Podsiadly, Kelly, Corey, Ling, Christensen, Chapman, Enright and Menzel polling somewhere between 3 and 10.
No I do not think it's possible for one of those players to absorb all of the votes of the others and poll 35.
This is the worst piece of Brownlow analysis I've seen on this entire thread, and given the quality of the thread this year that's saying something. One post I was going to ignore, that you're persisting with it into a third post is a serious worry for your finances.
Geelong do have a player who has the ability to poll lots of votes this year. his name is Joel Selwood. Their 100 or so votes will be achieved by Selwood polling 20, Johnson and Bartel polling 10-15 and Podsiadly, Kelly, Corey, Ling, Christensen, Chapman, Enright and Menzel polling somewhere between 3 and 10.
No I do not think it's possible for one of those players to absorb all of the votes of the others and poll 35.
Lol. Oh, how I love irony.
Re: Geelong, anyone?
Geez!
That's all I was asking and I already agreed with KP's answer! I wasn't offering analysis, I was pointing out a massive discrepancy between team total votes & team indiv odds and fishing for thoughts.
Thanks for the input and the gratuitous insult, my finances are in rude health tyvm
Geez!
That's all I was asking and I already agreed with KP's answer! I wasn't offering analysis, I was pointing out a massive discrepancy between team total votes & team indiv odds and fishing for thoughts.Thanks for the input and the gratuitous insult, my finances are in rude health tyvm
- Apr 26, 2007
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Re: Geelong, anyone?
Very sound. Cannot argue with that advice right there. How much were Geelong paying again? $251?
Very sound. Cannot argue with that advice right there. How much were Geelong paying again? $251?
pmalcolm1984
Debutant
Re: Geelong, anyone?
For it to count as a gratuitous insult I would have to have no justification for giving it.
After two replies from KP you were still claiming it was embarrassing that no one could account for the 100 Brownlow votes heading Geelong's way and that there was a greal deal of uncertainty about this. This is complete nonsense. I assure you the insult was not given gratuitously.
Geez!
Thanks for the input and the gratuitous insult, my finances are in rude health tyvm
For it to count as a gratuitous insult I would have to have no justification for giving it.
After two replies from KP you were still claiming it was embarrassing that no one could account for the 100 Brownlow votes heading Geelong's way and that there was a greal deal of uncertainty about this. This is complete nonsense. I assure you the insult was not given gratuitously.
- May 5, 2011
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Re: Geelong, anyone?
Oooh there is a Mitchell v Judd H2H market on Betfair
Oooh there is a Mitchell v Judd H2H market on Betfair
Re: Geelong, anyone?
Found something pretty interesting on sportingbet.... surely must be a glitch....
For some reason it has Priddis to be leading vote getter for WC paying $2.10 while Cox is paying $2.50...
BUT... for top 5 brownlow finish, Priddis is paying $10, while Cox is paying $3, WTF??? Maybe jump on Priddis for a top 5 finish ? lol
Found something pretty interesting on sportingbet.... surely must be a glitch....
For some reason it has Priddis to be leading vote getter for WC paying $2.10 while Cox is paying $2.50...
BUT... for top 5 brownlow finish, Priddis is paying $10, while Cox is paying $3, WTF??? Maybe jump on Priddis for a top 5 finish ? lol
Re: Geelong, anyone?
Yeah that is very strange, not a glitch as other bookies have similar but they must be holding a stack of money on Cox top 5. Either that or they are just ******ed and give him a good show
Yeah that is very strange, not a glitch as other bookies have similar but they must be holding a stack of money on Cox top 5. Either that or they are just ******ed and give him a good show
the public were all over Cox a few months ago, the media built him up, would have got alot of mug money.
NDFCHFC2
Senior List
Only 3 players can win this yeah?
what % do people think judds chances?
and what about pendles and goodes?
I have pendles taking it out but may hedge it with judd and/or goods
what % do people think judds chances?
and what about pendles and goodes?
I have pendles taking it out but may hedge it with judd and/or goods
Vince Masuka
Club Legend
My personal opinion, and I have not done a full count, is that Goodes is way unders for even top 3.
I backed him to win Sydney's count earlier in the year, and up until round 19 or so even that looked shakey.
I think his finish to the season has thrown him into the mix when he shouldn't really be thought of as an overall contender.
I backed him to win Sydney's count earlier in the year, and up until round 19 or so even that looked shakey.
I think his finish to the season has thrown him into the mix when he shouldn't really be thought of as an overall contender.
Re: Geelong, anyone?
Ah ok, I've been misunderstood. I was trying to confess that my argument was embarrassingly weak, but still point out the very real discrepancy. I can't remember a top team without a Brownlow prospect under 500/1, so was there a chance that the votes could align for one player, any player? Probably not, ask anyway, shot down, no big deal. Thanks for the response, all cleared up. Far too long spent on a $251 prop.
Ah ok, I've been misunderstood. I was trying to confess that my argument was embarrassingly weak, but still point out the very real discrepancy. I can't remember a top team without a Brownlow prospect under 500/1, so was there a chance that the votes could align for one player, any player? Probably not, ask anyway, shot down, no big deal. Thanks for the response, all cleared up. Far too long spent on a $251 prop.
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Re: Geelong, anyone?
I'm guessing the reason for a Geelong player being no chance was due to their best poller this year in Selwood missing a number of games (5 was it?) which contributed to their vote distribution becoming a lot more even. I've given them 98 votes and there are 8 players between 5 and 11 votes (taking 2/3 of the total votes). Looking at other teams with a similar total vote count (eg. Hawthorn / Collingwood) - their distributions are vastly different.
Not meaning to bring it up further but I just wanted to say that I do agree that it is a strange occurrence
I'm guessing the reason for a Geelong player being no chance was due to their best poller this year in Selwood missing a number of games (5 was it?) which contributed to their vote distribution becoming a lot more even. I've given them 98 votes and there are 8 players between 5 and 11 votes (taking 2/3 of the total votes). Looking at other teams with a similar total vote count (eg. Hawthorn / Collingwood) - their distributions are vastly different.
Not meaning to bring it up further but I just wanted to say that I do agree that it is a strange occurrence
NDFCHFC2
Senior List
I did a very rough preliminary count using one source only, and couldnt believe goodes poultry return when i counted them up.
unless he is a charity case and gets votes for showing up he is no chance imo.
The judd/pendle quinella was the obv one for me @ 4
Id like to know if anyone knows the rules with these quinellas, if theres a tie
say judd wins pendle tied 2nd?
or 3 way tie
does it salute? or are the odds slashed?
unless he is a charity case and gets votes for showing up he is no chance imo.
The judd/pendle quinella was the obv one for me @ 4
Id like to know if anyone knows the rules with these quinellas, if theres a tie
say judd wins pendle tied 2nd?
or 3 way tie
does it salute? or are the odds slashed?
Ill Chicken
Premiership Player
If they tie, that will still be the quinella and then the next vote getter will be third. A three way tie will mean half face value of the ticket.
Other than that, the odds will only change when it is a dead heat for second.
Minor point: it would be one-third face value (you have one of the three possible pairs)
Goodes doesn't need high stats to get votes, no doubt you based alot of your count on stats.
i bet if you sat down and watched every Sydney match, he would feature highly
- Mar 23, 2009
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He pretty much is. I was thinking about laying him in a few markets on Betfair but after reconsideration I'm largely staying away from Goodes related markets as I don't have much confidence in pinpointing how many votes he is on. Plenty of value elsewhere.
I've watched close to every Sydney game this year he really hasn't had that good a year in comparison to his position in the brownlow markets. My gut instinct is that he will finish about 7th or 8th and normally I would say trust your own count but given his polling history and some of the other trusted counts I have seen I don't want to touch him.
