Round 1 2012

[Slippery Pete]

If we don't make the NAB Cup GF, the Collingwood game will be the best showing as to what we can expect in 2012.

It won't at all.

 

[cmndstab]

It won't at all.

What will be?

 

[Slippery Pete]

What will be?

Round 1

 

[Jars458]

Henderson - seeking a new role for him. Indicates that he's on the outer and they're trying to find something for him.

Douglas - not sure if this is just wishful thinking but I can see him missing. I reckon Brodie Smith and Sam Kerridge play the game The Sando Way and won't miss Round 1.

These two would be my only query on your analysis.

Sando MAY really like Hendo in that role and be really keen on him playing there given his very long kicking skills. Your view just as valid though.

Douglas - Sando complimentary of Dougals in his Dream Team interview and nominated him as an undervalued player. From that I think he is in the best 22 and you would think that's not too unreasonable. I however would not be sad to see him miss out to a Kerridge or a Smith.

 

[cmndstab]

Round 1

Okay...... and what will be the best indicator of how we'll go in 2012 before the season actually starts, since that's clearly what was being spoken about?

 

[Vader]

Round 1

Pointless statement, given that the context of the discussion was clearly regarding the MMC.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Okay...... and what will be the best indicator of how we'll go in 2012 before the season actually starts, since that's clearly what was being spoken about?

I just said - there won't be one.

Anything that happens before round one will be completely inconsequential. We can speculate all we want out of pure boredom, but that's all it is.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

These two would be my only query on your analysis.

Sando MAY really like Hendo in that role and be really keen on him playing there given his very long kicking skills. Your view just as valid though.

Douglas - Sando complimentary of Dougals in his Dream Team interview and nominated him as an undervalued player. From that I think he is in the best 22 and you would think that's not too unreasonable. I however would not be sad to see him miss out to a Kerridge or a Smith.

I agree with your thoughts on Hendo... I think for a bloke who has only being playing a few years, he is doing exceptionally well. He has huge upside and I will be surprised if he isnt playing round 1. And Dougo is certainly in our best 22...

 

[cmndstab]

I just said - there won't be one.

Anything that happens before round one will be completely inconsequential. We can speculate all we want out of pure boredom, but that's all it is.

This is so obviously incorrect I'm wondering if you're just trying to wind me up.

Preseason form does not correlate perfectly with minor round form, but it clearly does correlate.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Didn't Port beat Geelong by 75 points last pre season?

That's some correlation. Not perfect, but certainly a correlation.....

 

[Vader]

While there will always be exceptions, for most teams a strong pre-season correlates with a strong H&A season. It has certainly always been that way with Adelaide.

The R3 game vs Collingwood will be our best indicator because the team selected for that game will be the closest to our R1 team, subject to player availability. Not a perfect indicator, but the best indicator we will have.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Carlton won the 2007 NAB cup. That is all.

 

[cmndstab]

Didn't Port beat Geelong by 75 points last pre season?

That's some correlation. Not perfect, but certainly a correlation.....

Are you trying to imply that upsets don't happen in the main round either?

I'd say there is a strong correlation.

Carlton won the 2007 NAB cup. That is all.

Yes... and after that it was St. Kilda (4th), Geelong (1st), Bulldogs (4th) and Collingwood (2nd). In each year the runner up has been a finalist as well.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Speaking of Round 1, is there any way to find out what time our first Home and Away season game vs Gold Coast will be on free to air tv here in SA? Its a 3.40pm game at Metricon Stadium, keen to get home from drunken antics in the Barossa to watch the game with the guys...

 

[Slippery Pete]

Yes... and after that it was St. Kilda (4th), Geelong (1st), Bulldogs (4th) and Collingwood (2nd). In each year the runner up has been a finalist as well.

St Kilda and the Bulldogs aren't a point in favour of your argument.

Two teams with premiership droughts longer than Dirk Diggler had no trouble casually waltzing to a pre season flag. St Kilda won it in 2004 too.

They mean nothing, and they indicate nothing.

Teams want to get through unscathed. That's all. That is the TOP priority, bar none. Considering that, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest it is any meaningful indicator of what's to come.

It's tantamount to claiming that a 20/20 result is an indicator of how a test series is going to pan out.

 

[bjn1960]

I agree with your thoughts on Hendo... I think for a bloke who has only being playing a few years, he is doing exceptionally well. He has huge upside and I will be surprised if he isnt playing round 1. And Dougo is certainly in our best 22...

I wonder, though I do have a bent against this lad's football ability.

 

[bjn1960]

I wonder, though I do have a bent against this lad's football ability.

After having just watched the re-play of the Crows v's Power game, I may need to re-access my negativity towards Douglas. Though his forte is to fummble, at least his second efforts and attack on the opposition's ball handler, were much more evident in the re-play.

 

[Mego Red]

St Kilda and the Bulldogs aren't a point in favour of your argument.

Two teams with premiership droughts longer than Dirk Diggler had no trouble casually waltzing to a pre season flag. St Kilda won it in 2004 too.

They mean nothing, and they indicate nothing.

Teams want to get through unscathed. That's all. That is the TOP priority, bar none. Considering that, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest it is any meaningful indicator of what's to come.

It's tantamount to claiming that a 20/20 result is an indicator of how a test series is going to pan out.

I'm still trying to work out if you actually have a point.

Are you trying to argue that the winner of the preseason competition doesn't win the premiership? Considering no one was arguing that, it seems an amazingly pointless thing to say.

They argued that preseason form correlated to regular season form, then showed you the number of winners who had strong regular seasons. You could just say "oh, I guess you're right", instead of whatever mindless opinion you were trying to pass.

 

[cmndstab]

St Kilda and the Bulldogs aren't a point in favour of your argument.

Two teams with premiership droughts longer than Dirk Diggler had no trouble casually waltzing to a pre season flag. St Kilda won it in 2004 too.

They mean nothing, and they indicate nothing.

Teams want to get through unscathed. That's all. That is the TOP priority, bar none. Considering that, it's utterly ridiculous to suggest it is any meaningful indicator of what's to come.

It's tantamount to claiming that a 20/20 result is an indicator of how a test series is going to pan out.

Let's not be facetious here. St. Kilda has been a very good side the last few years, hell, they've played in 2 (or 3! ) grand finals recently. Wish we could claim that. The Bulldogs have been perennial preliminary finallists.

I never said winning the NAB Cup would lead to winning a flag. I said it would be a good indicator as to how a side would go throughout the year. And it is. It's not perfect, which is not surprising given the fact that Aussie Rules is a notoriously unpredictable game. But it's a good indicator.

Teams are not solely interested in "just getting through". Sydney under Paul Roos might have been, yes. You might wish that's how we approached it. But it's not how teams approach it, and it's certainly not how teams that make it through to the final rounds approach it.

I'm not even sure why you'd make an issue out of something so clear. I think you're letting your own disappointment in the Crows' attitude to February footy blind yourself to reality.

 

[Slippery Pete]

They argued that preseason form correlated to regular season form, then showed you the number of winners who had strong regular seasons..

And results were put forward that showed the complete opposite - that there was no correlation whatsoever. The very poor rebuttal to this was "upsets happen in the regular season too." Are you honestly claiming the Port-Geelong result last year was an "upset?" An upset implies Geelong were actually trying.

And I haven't even touched on teams who have had extremely poor pre-seasons and gone on to have excellent regular season results. You can reel off several of them every year.

Stats can show you any sort of correlation you want to believe, but it depends how naive you want to be.

No coach is going to suggest they aren't taking it seriously because the AFL would be all over them. It's big business and a sponsor is throwing a shitload of money behind it. Therefore the closest a coach will get to saying "we'd rather not be in Alice *****ing Springs" is something like "we have or eye on this and one eye on round one," which you hear all he time.

If you ask any of the 18 coaches whether even ONE injury is worth winning the NAB cup, I bet every single one of them would say no.

Trust me when i say the Collingwood game will not tell us anything about what's to come tactically or positionally. And I'd be worried if it did.

 

[cmndstab]

And results were put forward that showed the complete opposite - that there was no correlation whatsoever. The very poor rebuttal to this was "upsets happen in the regular season too." Are you honestly claiming the Port-Geelong result last year was an "upset?" An upset implies Geelong were actually trying.

You come to the table with one handpicked example and then complain about the quality of the rebuttal? Get your hand off it. I gave your four examples in a row of teams that won the NAB cup finishing in the top 4 their year and all you could say was "well two of them haven't won a premiership in the last 50 years".

And I haven't even touched on teams who have had extremely poor pre-seasons and gone on to have excellent regular season results. You can reel off several of them every year.

I can reel off just as many examples of teams who started off poorly in April and finished off well in August. Are you trying to claim that the minor round is a static time period in which form doesn't change?

No coach is going to suggest they aren't taking it seriously because the AFL would be all over them. It's big business and a sponsor is throwing a shitload of money behind it. Therefore the closest a coach will get to saying "we'd rather not be in Alice *****ing Springs" is something like "we have or eye on this and one eye on round one," which you hear all he time.

If you ask any of the 18 coaches whether even ONE injury is worth winning the NAB cup, I bet every single one of them would say no.

And if you asked any of the 18 coaches (now that Roos has retired ) whether they'd prefer to keep playing internal trials, or participate in the NAB Cup, I bet every single one would choose the latter.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Stab this shouldn't be this hard mate.....

You honestly think the next two games are going to be an indicator of what's to come? Do you?

By the time the clash against the GC rolls around, nobody will even remember where these games were played, let alone who lined up in them.

And as for me being disappointed with our February approach, I've actually stated elsewhere that I think Sanderson all but shares my view on its relevance and importance. I guarantee you he is holding back the vast majority of his tactical plans. We ain't seen nothing yet.

 

[Allefgib]

I think he's shown a bit of his hand Pete.

The k:h ratio is telling. Play through the middle,play on at all costs stuff is telling.

If anyone wants to know what our coaching strategies are - just watch how VB plays. The guy can't stop himself from playing exactly as the coach expects. Some of his attempts to play on at all costs last weekend we're almost laughable - looked ugly, but did often really apply pressure to the opponents.

Having said that, in the season proper maybe he'll pull out play switching, slowing things down etc as a tactical plan.. time will tell but I'm not as convinced as you that this preseason won't inform our season. I think it will. Especially around how we intend to play and who we intend to put our time into this year.

 

[bjn1960]

And results were put forward that showed the complete opposite - that there was no correlation whatsoever. The very poor rebuttal to this was "upsets happen in the regular season too." Are you honestly claiming the Port-Geelong result last year was an "upset?" An upset implies Geelong were actually trying.

And I haven't even touched on teams who have had extremely poor pre-seasons and gone on to have excellent regular season results. You can reel off several of them every year.

Stats can show you any sort of correlation you want to believe, but it depends how naive you want to be.

No coach is going to suggest they aren't taking it seriously because the AFL would be all over them. It's big business and a sponsor is throwing a shitload of money behind it. Therefore the closest a coach will get to saying "we'd rather not be in Alice *****ing Springs" is something like "we have or eye on this and one eye on round one," which you hear all he time.

If you ask any of the 18 coaches whether even ONE injury is worth winning the NAB cup, I bet every single one of them would say no.

Trust me when i say the Collingwood game will not tell us anything about what's to come tactically or positionally. And I'd be worried if it did.

I don't believe you really mean this - will not tell us anything - it wont tell us everything, but it will tell us somethings, otherwise, the whole concept of trial-games are pointless, which they are clearly not.

 

[Slippery Pete]

I guess time will tell, boys.