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Observations:
Essendon: Tragic loss to arch rivals Hawthorn on Friday Night, unable to close out a 2 goal lead in the last 3 minutes of the game, where they failed to put extra men back which ultimately probably would have won the game. Chapman, Watson and Goddard were among the best for the Bombers.
Carlton: Played one good quarter of football against the Tigers, but were comical for the rest. The skills, defense, everything was horrible. They looked like a bush league side. If they had kicked straight they may have gotten up, and players like McLean, Murphy, Gibbs and Thomas were nowhere to be seen in the last.
Head to head (last 5): Essendon 3-2 Carlton
Sportsbet odds: <will update>
Essendon:
Carlton:
Possible sides:
Essendon vs Carlton
B: Tuohy - Jamison - White
F: J Merrett - Daniher - Ambrose
HB: Walker - Rowe - Simpson
HF: Goddard - Carlisle - Chapman
C: Buckley - McLean - Gibbs
C: Stanton - Watson - Zaharakis
HF: Yarran - Waite - Robinson
HB: Hibberd - Hurley - Gleeson
F: Casboult - Henderson - Garlett
B: Baguley - Hooker - Fletcher
R: Warnock - Murphy - Curnow
R: Thurlow - Heppell - Hocking
I: Ellard - Bell - Menzel
I: Howlett - Myers - Melksham
S: Lucas
S: Winderlich
Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line
This looks to be pretty even, with Carlton having average tall defenders apart from Jamison, but three excellent small defenders in Walker, Simpson and Tuohy, all of whom know how to shut down a man and rebound from defensive 50 well. Essendon's talls look a bit light on, but Daniher, Carlisle and Ambrose are looking promising right now as a trio, and the small players of Merrett, Chapman and Goddard are providing good avenues to goal.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
Essendon should really get on top here, with the class of Watson, Stanton, Goddard, Chapman, Zaharakis, Heppell, Myers, the list goes on and on about the class of the player in this midfield. Carlton look very weak in this area however, with Murphy and Gibbs the standouts but the rest just look to have a gap in quality to their Essendon counterpart, with the exception of the ruck, where most people would expect Warnock to have an advantage over the first gamer in Thurlow. The tags will be interesting, with Murphy likely to get the close attention of Heath Hocking, and Curnow likely to be shutting down Stanton, which means players like Watson, Goddard, Zaharakis will run free.
Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence
Another place where you'd put the advantage to Essendon. The much fabled small forwards of Carlton have been average so far this season, other than a small burst from Yarran which could have been easily curtailed. Essendon's KPD's in Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley have started well this season, and their small defenders have been in good form as well. The key battle here is Hurley vs Waite and Hooker vs Henderson. If Essendon can break even in those they should be able to handle the rest of the Carlton forward line
X-Factor players
Martin Gleeson has been the find of the year for the Dons, just has so much time in traffic and has a silkiness about him that he can weave through 3 or 4 players and deliver the ball with precision. He looks like a dead-set gem and once he gets his tank up and adds more bulk, look out.
Kane Lucas is one of the more frustrating players for Carlton, a high draft pick but can't seem to be at ease at senior level, and he needs to perform this year unless he wants to find himself on the scrapheap at Carlton at the end of the year
Key area for each side:
Essendon:
My tip
Given the formlines, Essendon should be able to win this quite comfortbly, looking at the average Carlton displays against Port and Richmond, and Essendon's excellent showing against Hawthorn, Essendon by 42 points
Essendon: Tragic loss to arch rivals Hawthorn on Friday Night, unable to close out a 2 goal lead in the last 3 minutes of the game, where they failed to put extra men back which ultimately probably would have won the game. Chapman, Watson and Goddard were among the best for the Bombers.
Carlton: Played one good quarter of football against the Tigers, but were comical for the rest. The skills, defense, everything was horrible. They looked like a bush league side. If they had kicked straight they may have gotten up, and players like McLean, Murphy, Gibbs and Thomas were nowhere to be seen in the last.
Head to head (last 5): Essendon 3-2 Carlton
Sportsbet odds: <will update>
Essendon:
Carlton:
Possible sides:
Essendon vs Carlton
B: Tuohy - Jamison - White
F: J Merrett - Daniher - Ambrose
HB: Walker - Rowe - Simpson
HF: Goddard - Carlisle - Chapman
C: Buckley - McLean - Gibbs
C: Stanton - Watson - Zaharakis
HF: Yarran - Waite - Robinson
HB: Hibberd - Hurley - Gleeson
F: Casboult - Henderson - Garlett
B: Baguley - Hooker - Fletcher
R: Warnock - Murphy - Curnow
R: Thurlow - Heppell - Hocking
I: Ellard - Bell - Menzel
I: Howlett - Myers - Melksham
S: Lucas
S: Winderlich
Carlton defence vs Essendon forward line
This looks to be pretty even, with Carlton having average tall defenders apart from Jamison, but three excellent small defenders in Walker, Simpson and Tuohy, all of whom know how to shut down a man and rebound from defensive 50 well. Essendon's talls look a bit light on, but Daniher, Carlisle and Ambrose are looking promising right now as a trio, and the small players of Merrett, Chapman and Goddard are providing good avenues to goal.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
Essendon should really get on top here, with the class of Watson, Stanton, Goddard, Chapman, Zaharakis, Heppell, Myers, the list goes on and on about the class of the player in this midfield. Carlton look very weak in this area however, with Murphy and Gibbs the standouts but the rest just look to have a gap in quality to their Essendon counterpart, with the exception of the ruck, where most people would expect Warnock to have an advantage over the first gamer in Thurlow. The tags will be interesting, with Murphy likely to get the close attention of Heath Hocking, and Curnow likely to be shutting down Stanton, which means players like Watson, Goddard, Zaharakis will run free.
Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence
Another place where you'd put the advantage to Essendon. The much fabled small forwards of Carlton have been average so far this season, other than a small burst from Yarran which could have been easily curtailed. Essendon's KPD's in Fletcher, Hooker and Hurley have started well this season, and their small defenders have been in good form as well. The key battle here is Hurley vs Waite and Hooker vs Henderson. If Essendon can break even in those they should be able to handle the rest of the Carlton forward line
X-Factor players
Martin Gleeson has been the find of the year for the Dons, just has so much time in traffic and has a silkiness about him that he can weave through 3 or 4 players and deliver the ball with precision. He looks like a dead-set gem and once he gets his tank up and adds more bulk, look out.
Kane Lucas is one of the more frustrating players for Carlton, a high draft pick but can't seem to be at ease at senior level, and he needs to perform this year unless he wants to find himself on the scrapheap at Carlton at the end of the year
Key area for each side:
Essendon:
- Movement. Essendon's forwards get a bit stagnant at times during the game, and as such it's predictable to what they're going to do
- Turnovers. Carlton don't have fantastically skilled players like Hawthorn do, and Essendon kill teams on the turnover.
My tip
Given the formlines, Essendon should be able to win this quite comfortbly, looking at the average Carlton displays against Port and Richmond, and Essendon's excellent showing against Hawthorn, Essendon by 42 points
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