Mega Thread All things Tony Abbott

[Chameleon75]

Phil Coorey nails it.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/tony_abbott_hires_malcolm_turnbull_GIGYwbJta38agGitLXxSSK

brough has a touch of rudd about him

 

[Forward Press]

Regardless of how events pan out after Tuesday, but particularly if Abbott hangs on, one thing is for certain and that is that Messrs Simpkins, Randall and Jensen will not get endorsement as Liberal Party canditates ever again. The good news for the Libs is that none of them will be missed.

An inanimate carbon rod could win for the Libs in their respective seats. WA still has relatively high preferred PM ratings for Tony Abbott. I can't remember the last time the ALP held the majority of electorates in WA.

 

[Lethality]

I just don't understand the demonisation of people on the dole. It's as if some think all of them like receiving much less than minimum wage and having to apply for dozens of jobs every month and being knocked back almost every time.

I'd wager the government could cut down spending on social security by cracking down on the Family Tax Benefits, the pension and DSP which pay far more than the dole, than by saving a couple of hundred dollars a week in pursuing a dole bludger. But I suppose unemployed people are easier targets than pensioners...

Easy targets, the reality is that if somebody doesn't want to work rather than be on the dole they problems other than rorting the system, such as depression, intergenerational unemployment that need to be tackled. I doubt anyone in their right mind would prefer to be on the dole, it is not a sustainable lifestyle. But there's also no need to crack down on the DSP, some of those people are on it for life and live a very limited lifestyle as a result, particularly with finding decent accomodation. I guess there might be a few rorters but again I would think they have problems besides wanting to defraud the state.

 

[Forward Press]

Why crack down on the DSP, some of those people are on it for life and live a very limited lifestyle as a result, particularly with finding decent accomodation.

I don't disagree with the DSP, far from it, but I was throwing it in there with the FTB and old-age pension because those three payments are far more than the dole. If the government wants to rein in spending, they could start there.

 

[Lethality]

We have a challenger; 5 hours ago Malcolm Turnbull's supporters announced he will run against Abbott if the spill succeeds.

 

[Jascave]

We have a challenger; 5 hours ago Malcolm Turnbull's supporters announced he will run against Abbott if the spill succeeds.

But has Malcolm Turnbull himself confirmed that he will run against Tony Abbott? And what are the chances of a spill succeeding?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[mellowyellow]

I read this ages ago. I agree with everything on that list except for numbers 23, 26 and 42.

thankfully you'll always be apart of the chattering minority

 

[raghav]

But has Malcolm Turnbull himself confirmed that he will run against Tony Abbott? And what are the chances of a spill succeeding?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

If the spill is allowed I don't believe there is any doubt that Turnbull will have a crack. Furthermore, if it's a secret ballot he has a very realistic chance of outing Abbott. Alternatively, if it's a show of hands I have no doubt that that many who would vote against Abbott in a secret ballot would not do so on a show of hands. Abbott would be aware of that and therefore will insist on a show of hands, it's his call.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

But has Malcolm Turnbull himself confirmed that he will run against Tony Abbott? And what are the chances of a spill succeeding?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

If the spill succeeds then whoever is PM by Tuesday lunch time it won't be Tony- having said he doesn't want the spill, his authority would be irrevocably shredded if it got up, he'd be mad to put his name forward on the subsequent ballot.

But it would be very surprising if the spill succeeds- this time. Given cabinet is supposedly locked into supporting him even 20-30 votes in favour of change would indicate his support on the back bench is terminal, it would just mean he stays leader for a few months until Malcolm or Julie decide to split from cabinet and put the issue back before cabinet.

I reckon less than 10 votes to spill = abbott walks away reasonably okay and maybe incrementally stronger than he was a week ago, 10-20 means a messy and uncertain six months, more than 20 and it really just depends when Malcolm decides to bring it on again

 

[Dixie Flatline]

An inanimate carbon rod could win for the Libs in their respective seats. WA still has relatively high preferred PM ratings for Tony Abbott. I can't remember the last time the ALP held the majority of electorates in WA.

Probably after the 2007 election.

 

[Forward Press]

Probably after the 2007 election.

It was still 11-4 in the coalition's favour post-2007.

Doing the research, the last time was 1998 when the ALP and coalition split it 50/50 (7 each)

 

[Jascave]

And whoever wins on Tuesday (if the spill goes ahead) would have to unite not just the Liberals but the Coalition together again, and hope like hell this issue doesn't raise its head again.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[pokerspiv]

Yeah but if they realise it soon they could regain some relevance. Give it another 5-10 years and if they're still just Liberal party stooges they're a good chance of being close to non-existent not just irrelevant. They're holding on with older voters who have always voted National but as they die off and our population gets more and more urbanised their base will start whittling away particularly with them not standing up for their communities against the Liberals on anything.

The nationals are irrelevant because they have no bargaining power.

If they voted with Labor over the Liberals their constituency would disappear. The Liberals would run candidates against them in every seat in the country and would win every seat in the country because people who vote Nationals really, really hate the Labor party.

Essentially the same reason why Windsor and Oakeshott retired after selling out their electorates to elect a Labor government.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

The nationals are irrelevant because they have no bargaining power.

If they voted with Labor over the Liberals their constituency would disappear. The Liberals would run candidates against them in every seat in the country and would win every seat in the country because people who vote Nationals really, really hate the Labor party.

Essentially the same reason why Windsor and Oakeshott retired after selling out their electorates to elect a Labor government.

The Nationals are irrelevant because they remain in a Coalition with the Liberal Party. The longer they remain in that Coalition, the more irrelevant they will become. This 'Coalition' is now a toothless historical agreement; it has little contemporary purchase. Oakeshott and Windsor knew this, and got it 100% right in becoming independents. Other Independents in the bush like Sheed and McGowan have also got it right. They all correctly see that the interests of rural Australians are not served by becoming an ineffectual voice in a Party whose focus and economic platform is often at odds with rural realities. The rise of the bush independent directly coincides with the death of the National Party.

 

[pokerspiv]

The Liberals economic platform is much more in line with rural realities than that of Labor or The Greens. Hence, independents who align themselves with Labor or The Greens get turfed out with extreme prejudice.

 

[AM]

If the spill is allowed I don't believe there is any doubt that Turnbull will have a crack. Furthermore, if it's a secret ballot he has a very realistic chance of outing Abbott. Alternatively, if it's a show of hands I have no doubt that that many who would vote against Abbott in a secret ballot would not do so on a show of hands. Abbott would be aware of that and therefore will insist on a show of hands, it's his call.

The Mad Monk has confirmed it will be a secret ballot.

If it gets up and Malcolm nominates for the leadership wonder if Jules will again offer her unwavering support as deputy. Maybe the offer has already been made. Just sayin......

 

[Jascave]

But what will happen to the three rebel backbenchers from WA if either a) Abbott or b) Turnbull wins (once the spill goes ahead)?
BTW, which TV news channel would be best in following the developments from Canberra on Tuesday-ABC News 24, Sky News, Seven, Nine?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[pjcrows]

Sky will have the best access and overall coverage if you're a political nut.

ABC is always amateur hour but they do their best.

Channel 7 and 9 no way.

 

[Lethality]

But has Malcolm Turnbull himself confirmed that he will run against Tony Abbott? And what are the chances of a spill succeeding?

He hasn't denied it, and he's hiding from the media at the moment. Seems certain.

Sky will have the best access and overall coverage if you're a political nut.

ABC is always amateur hour but they do their best.

Nothing wrong with ABC24, although Chris Yuleman (sp?) has been going a bit FOX News on the Libs lately.

 

[sherb]

Essentially the same reason why Windsor and Oakeshott retired after selling out their electorates to elect a Labor government.

They did what they considered was the best for the country when they found themselves in an unenviable situation.

Given Abbott's appalling performance in government, their judgment at the time has proven to be spot on.

 

[Contra Mundum]

I don't see how a degree at Edith Cowan has the same value as that at UWA.

We should look at ways that the concept of value be introduced to education to be respectful of the student and the tax payer who pay for the service and respectful of the universities that provide a superior education outcome. This price signal will help make better decisions and promote competition into the sector.

If done properly, we should see more universities in the top 100 universities globally and may see a top 10 representation.


then again some aren't interested in better services, better education outcomes, value etc; as there is no better value than free shit.

Yeh but that is based on the idea that the sandstones are always superior quality across the board - which is crap

 

[Contra Mundum]

Exactly. Never in my life have I seen a hiring decison made on the basis of where the degree came from.

Never seen recruitment in the big six law firms then

 

[skilts]

There is already a signal to differentiate the top universities from the others, for year 12 leavers it is the ATAR. the one that is valued more has the higher ATAR due to higher demands to get into the particular university. This value is carried through to employers who see the degree and where it was attained as an important aspect of employing someone. The concept of value is already there, those who work the hardest and achieve the right results get into the more prestigious universities. The ATAR lives and dies on the concept of demand. If high achieving low income students are priced out of the top universities then the high quality institutions would find themselves lowering their minimum requirements to fill their places and reduce their standards. The teaching aspect of universities should be about attracting the best and brightest. Coming from a single parent household of $40k with my father supporting three kids, there was no way I could have gone to Monash if it had not been for my scholarships. It is hard enough as it is, making it even tougher for low income students would really see standards slide.

I disagree with almost everything you have posted here, but I'm so glad you took the trouble.

 

[DrEvil_]

It's an interesting race, who will lat longer? Hird or Abbott?

 

[questionable]

Phil Coorey nails it.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/tony_abbott_hires_malcolm_turnbull_GIGYwbJta38agGitLXxSSK

Malcolm Turnbull's first stint as Liberal leader was brought undone to a large degree by his inability to think like a politician rather than a businessman. In business, pernorkles don't count. In politics, everyone has one vote each.

wtf is a pernorkle?