Traded Chris Yarran [to Richmond for Pick 19]

[My name geoff]

The price is $1300 because that's the price it trades at. That has been determined by the market, not because the gold dealer just arbitrarily decided on that figure.

Equally, Carlton might decide Yarran is 'worth a first-rounder'. But that doesn't mean anything if the market doesn't agree. Sure, they can keep him. But in terms of trade value, the market will decide that.

You don't think Carlton can simply look at what similar players are traded for to determine value?

 

[SeVi]

You don't think Carlton can simply look at what similar players are traded for to determine value?

In addition, there will be too many clubs interested in Yarran for one "interested" club to make any judgment on value.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Who says nobody is willing to pay 1300 for the gold?

The point is that the market will determine whether that price is valid.

If it trades at $1300, then the price is tenable. But if no one wants to buy at that price, then it isn't.

Further still, you are assuming the gold dealer HAS to sell the gold.

Of course not. But if he decides not to sell, it tells us nothing about the gold's trade value.

The trade value is defined by the price someone is willing to pay for it.

There are too many preconceptions that you are making.

There really aren't. I'm explaining a very straightforward premise.

If we tried to make a deal, weren't satisfied (say on your grounds) - we would simply tell him he's required for 2016.

Sure. But that would demonstrate nothing about his trade value.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

You don't think Carlton can simply look at what similar players are traded for to determine value?

They can look at as many players as they like.

Yarran's trade value will still be determined by what other clubs are willing to give up in exchange.

Who would you consider to be a 'similar player'?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

In addition, there will be too many clubs interested in Yarran for one "interested" club to make any judgment on value.

That's called a market. And the market will determine Yarran's trade value.

If no one in that market is willing to give up a first-rounder, then he's not worth a first-rounder.

Sure, Carlton can choose to keep him. But that won't change the fact that the market has determined his trade value to be less than a first-rounder.

 

[SeVi]

What happened with

The point is that the market will determine whether that price is valid.

Of course not. But if he decides not to sell, it tells us nothing about the gold's trade value.

The trade value is defined by the price someone is willing to pay for it.

There really aren't. I'm explaining a very straightforward premise.

Sure. But that would demonstrate nothing about his trade value.

Trade value is defined by what is being offered which is accepted by the seller. No what is offered, not what is wanted.

History of previous trades will factor in. Also, the value is fluid, changing. His value on the second last day of trade period is different than the first day and so on.

Instead of speculating, let's see what happens shall we? I'm confident we will do well out the Yarran deal.

 

[reincarnated]

Looks like a crazy fellow has taken over the Tankers. 1st round pick for a soft one way runner, who mostly gives up during games. The more I think of it, he is a delist material.

 

[SeVi]

That's called a market. And the market will determine Yarran's trade value.

If no one in that market is willing to give up a first-rounder, then he's not worth a first-rounder.

Sure, Carlton can choose to keep him. But that won't change the fact that the market has determined his trade value to be less than a first-rounder.

Yes it's called the Market. Let's see what the market is willing to pay. You say no to first rounder. I'm not so sure. It's a weak draft. Also, how many clubs interested will have the cash to take him as FA? Then there's the replacement issue. Clubs losing players who want replacements.

You say he's not. I say he is. But what you think is irrelevant anyway (as is mine).

I should also point out the change in rotations. Going down to 90 will affect how clubs draft/select players.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Trade value is defined by what is being offered which is accepted by the seller. No what is offered, not what is wanted.

If no one is willing to offer a first-rounder, he ain't worth a first-rounder.

The market determines value. It's very straightforward.

Yes it's called the Market. Let's see what the market is willing to pay. You say no to first rounder. I'm not so sure.

I'm explaining to you how the market determines value. Apparently it's the first time you've considered the idea.

 

[Vic pokiesmon]

Hes not the right fit for us but I could see the Swans being prepared to give up there pick they get from Jetta for Yarran.Replaces Shaw and has Jettas pace.Trade ban allows them to bring in a $450,000 player which would get Yarran.Personally I think it would be best for him to get out of the Melbourne bubble and he was apparently a mad Swans supporter as a kid.

 

[Funk]

If Yarran played primarily reserves next season and carried on with his current form, I really doubt Carlton would receive any compensation for him at all as a FA.

Yarran is contracted so Carlton are not "forced sellers" in the manner if he was OOC.

Richmond cannot think because Yarran has stated he wants to go there he will get his way at whatever price Richmond think is convenient.

Carlton will want what they consider fair value.

If Richmond don't - Carlton may call Yarran's bluff and leave him on the list and rot at NB's.

Will Carlton do this?

Probably not - but if Silvagni is a half decent poker player he will let both parties stew that this is a real option.

Carlton will be down near the bottom of the ladder anyway so what is there to lose?

Next years draft is much stronger - so keep him on the list and send him off on some "Buddy Leave" for a year then trade/compensate next year.

Then the question becomes - is SOS bluffing?

Do Tigers/Yarran want to risk this may happen?

Bottom line is that people who think Carlton can be forced to submit to Yarran's will need to take a long cold shower.

 

[My name geoff]

That's called a market. And the market will determine Yarran's trade value.

If no one in that market is willing to give up a first-rounder, then he's not worth a first-rounder.

Sure, Carlton can choose to keep him. But that won't change the fact that the market has determined his trade value to be less than a first-rounder.

The value will be what Carlton are willing to sell him for.

 

[Toadvine]

Yarran is contracted so Carlton are not "forced sellers" in the manner if he was OOC.

Richmond cannot think because Yarran has stated he wants to go there he will get his way at whatever price Richmond think is convenient.

Carlton will want what they consider fair value.

If Richmond don't - Carlton may call Yarran's bluff and leave him on the list and rot at NB's.

Will Carlton do this?

Probably not - but if Silvagni is a half decent poker player he will let both parties stew that this is a real option.

Carlton will be down near the bottom of the ladder anyway so what is there to lose?

Next years draft is much stronger - so keep him on the list and send him off on some "Buddy Leave" for a year then trade/compensate next year.

Then the question becomes - is SOS bluffing?

Do Tigers/Yarran want to risk this may happen?

Bottom line is that people who think Carlton can be forced to submit to Yarran's will need to take a long cold shower.

None of what you posted responds to what I wrote.

If Yarran played VFL all next year with the same form he's had this year or even if he went on "Buddy leave" I think it's far fetched Carlton would get any FA compensation for him.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The value will be what Carlton are willing to sell him for.

If you don't understand that trade value is determined by the market, I can't help you.

Carlton can say 'we want a first-rounder'. But if no one is willing to give a first-rounder in return, then Yarran isn't worth a first-rounder. Becuase the market determines value. Sure, Carlton can elect not to sell, but that doesn't tell us anything about Yarran's trade value if that has already been determined by the market as being less than a first-rounder.

 

[My name geoff]

If you don't understand that trade value is determined by the market, I can't help you.

Carlton can say 'we want a first-rounder'. But if no one is willing to give a first-rounder in return, then Yarran isn't worth a first-rounder. Becuase the market determines value. Sure, Carlton can elect not to sell, but that doesn't tell us anything about Yarran's trade value if that has already been determined by the market as being less than a first-rounder.

You are missing the point. Yarran's ultimate value will be what he is traded for..Carlton don't have to trade him, therefore Carlton decide his value in this particular market

 

[Sweet Jesus]

You are missing the point. Yarran's ultimate value will be what he is traded for

What is 'ultimate value'?

There is market value. That is determined by the market.

Carlton can trade Yarran for market value or they can hang onto him.

But it makes no sense to claim 'he's worth a first-rounder' if no one is willing to pay that.

Carlton don't have to trade him, therefore Carlton decide his value in this particular market

No. They don't. The market determines his value. Carlton can decide whether or not to sell. But that decision doesn't alter his value as has been determined by the market.

If Carlton insists 'he's worth a first-rounder' but no one wants to pay that, is he still worth a first-rounder?

That might be the asking price but the market's consensus is what counts when determining value.

 

[Funk]

None of what you posted responds to what I wrote.

If Yarran played VFL all next year with the same form he's had this year or even if he went on "Buddy leave" I think it's far fetched Carlton would get any FA compensation for him.

I will spell it out for you.

CARLTON DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE CHRIS YARRAN IN THIS DRAFT PERIOD.

So it does not matter what you think he is worth.

It only matters what Carlton are willing to accept to let him go!!!!!!

 

[My name geoff]

What is 'ultimate value'?

There is market value. That is determined by the market.

Carlton can trade Yarran for market value or they can hang onto him.

But it makes no sense to claim 'he's worth a first-rounder' if no one is willing to pay that.

No. They don't. The market determines his value. Carlton can decide whether or not to sell. But that decision doesn't alter his value as has been determined by the market.

If Carlton insists 'he's worth a first-rounder' but no one wants to pay that, is he still worth a first-rounder?

That might be the asking price but the market's consensus is what counts when determining value.

What you are referring to is commodity trading. This is a different scenario where perceived value from the seller is factored in. If you can't see that then I can't help you

 

[Sweet Jesus]

This is a different scenario where perceived value from the seller is factored in.

Why is it different?

You can have all the 'perceived value' you like. Carlton can have their asking price. But the market is what matters when determining trade value.

 

[My name geoff]

Not when you dont have to sell

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Not when you dont have to sell

Carlton can by all means keep their player. But that tells us nothing about his trade value, which is determined by the market.

Carlton certainly wouldn't be the first club to have their valuation of a player rejected by the market.

 

[_RT_]

Yarran is contracted so Carlton are not "forced sellers" in the manner if he was OOC.

Richmond cannot think because Yarran has stated he wants to go there he will get his way at whatever price Richmond think is convenient.

Carlton will want what they consider fair value.

If Richmond don't - Carlton may call Yarran's bluff and leave him on the list and rot at NB's.

Will Carlton do this?

Probably not - but if Silvagni is a half decent poker player he will let both parties stew that this is a real option.

Carlton will be down near the bottom of the ladder anyway so what is there to lose?

Next years draft is much stronger - so keep him on the list and send him off on some "Buddy Leave" for a year then trade/compensate next year.

Then the question becomes - is SOS bluffing?

Do Tigers/Yarran want to risk this may happen?

Bottom line is that people who think Carlton can be forced to submit to Yarran's will need to take a long cold shower.

Carlton could leave him rot in the VFL if they want, but doing that won't get them fair compo next year, in fact it will only hurt their claims as the AFL aren't going to give an end of first round or second round pick to them for a guy who spent the year in the VFL. So Carlton could call Yarrans bluff and not trade him, but do they really want a player around who doesn't want to be there, especially with a new coach who is trying to instill a new brand of discipline.

So what does Carlton do? Well pick 12 is too high for Yarran, even if it drops down to pick 17 with academy picks and compo picks. Pick 35 is too low a price for him, which means somewhere in between for him. We don't have a pick in that range so that means a player. The player that I believe would be best suited to Carltons needs would be McBean, a 199cm 94kg KPF who has kicked 30-40 goals a season in each of his 3 VFL seasons.

With Carlton not getting the extra pick for Kreuzer leaving, they could do worse than ask for McBean straight swap for Yarran and together with Weitering they would have their KPP bookends sorted for the next decade. With the pick they get from Geelong for Henderson, and their second round pick, they could add some decent young midfielders to go with Cripps. If Bell leaves they could take a crack at getting Aish as well and really set themselves up.

Then again Carlton could play hardball like their fans want and miss out altogether on making the best of the situation.

 

[Funk]

Carlton could leave him rot in the VFL if they want, but doing that won't get them fair compo next year, in fact it will only hurt their claims as the AFL aren't going to give an end of first round or second round pick to them for a guy who spent the year in the VFL. So Carlton could call Yarrans bluff and not trade him, but do they really want a player around who doesn't want to be there, especially with a new coach who is trying to instill a new brand of discipline.

So what does Carlton do? Well pick 12 is too high for Yarran, even if it drops down to pick 17 with academy picks and compo picks. Pick 35 is too low a price for him, which means somewhere in between for him. We don't have a pick in that range so that means a player. The player that I believe would be best suited to Carltons needs would be McBean, a 199cm 94kg KPF who has kicked 30-40 goals a season in each of his 3 VFL seasons.

With Carlton not getting the extra pick for Kreuzer leaving, they could do worse than ask for McBean straight swap for Yarran and together with Weitering they would have their KPP bookends sorted for the next decade. With the pick they get from Geelong for Henderson, and their second round pick, they could add some decent young midfielders to go with Cripps. If Bell leaves they could take a crack at getting Aish as well and really set themselves up.

Then again Carlton could play hardball like their fans want and miss out altogether on making the best of the situation.

Like most of your observations except your assumption in the last paragraph.

Carlton fans do not want hard ball for the sake of it - just fair compensation.

Some posters here seem to think CFC will have to take whatever is offered.

I was making the observation that this is not necessarily the case.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Carlton fans do not want hard ball for the sake of it - just fair compensation.

What's "fair"?

 

[My name geoff]

Carlton can by all means keep their player. But that tells us nothing about his trade value, which is determined by the market.

Carlton certainly wouldn't be the first club to have their valuation of a player rejected by the market.

That's right to an extent, but tell me who ultimately decides what the sale price will be?