Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread - The sequel - I know what SOS did last Sumner

[BluesRule]

Yes. These guys are second year players and people are acting like they are burdens on the GWS system.

They are not Jaksch and Whiley and not Lamb, Sumner or Phillips types with 3-4 years in the system.

2014 pick 4 and pick 6. Rated by all in that draft.

#5 has to be gone or our first rounder next year.

Maybe we can swing #5 and #23 for the pair and one of their late first rounders at a pinch.

Do not think it is a question of maths. If so Jaksch, Gorringe, Thomas (#2), etc. as high picks should have great value.
The fact Marchbank and Pickett were rated that highly in 2014 is not consistent with how they would be drafted now if we redid the 2014 draft.
I personally do not believe that two frequently injured players in Marchbank and Pickett, who between them have played circa 6 games for GWS in 2 years will command pick #5. Think GWS would clear them at a discount as they have immediate academy replacements this year in guys like Perryman, Sproule, Harrison Macreadie (instant Marchbank replacement), Will Setterfield, Kobe Mutch, etc. GWS can afford to be ruthless with their list right now and get more locals to avoid go home risk. Marshall is also important to them so a swap of #5 for #7 may happen (although we would more likely draft a midfielder so not high risk).
I would be very disappointed if we gave up #5 for the pair as we would get more games from drafting #5.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Like the idea of Pick 5 and next year's second rounder for Pick 7, Marchbank, Pickett and Stewart.

Our second next year will probably be similar in value to this year's, but is worth more to GWS for their ongoing list management. They're loaded on draft picks for this year already.

Pick 7 still gets us a McGrath/Ainsworth type, maybe Marshall if we get lucky.
Pickett slots into a rebounding defender role if fit, allows us to shed Tuohy for a late first/early second (eg. 17 from Sydney).
17 and 23 get us a slider and a solid midfielder (Venables/Clarke + Drew/Fisher).
Marchbank into the backline.
Rowe as depth or moved forward.
Casboult/Jones/Stewart fighting to keep McKay out of the side.

FB: Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank
HB: Pickett, Weitering, Simpson
C: Buckley, Curnow, Gibbs
R: Phillips, Cripps, Murphy
HF: Curnow, Rowe, Cuningham
FF: Silvagni, Stewart, Sumner
I/C: Kreuzer, Wright, Boekhorst, McGrath/Ainsworth

Depth (promoted through injury/form): Thomas, Armfield, Kerridge, Jones, Casboult, Stewart, Lamb, Jaksch, Everitt, White
Developing (give games when earned): McKay, Venables/Clarke, Drew/Fisher, Viojo-Rainbow, maybe Kerbatieh with a late pick
Injured (to return when fit): Byrne, Sheehan

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Do not think it is a question of maths. If so Jaksch, Gorringe, Thomas (#2), etc. as high picks should have great value.
The fact Marchbank and Pickett were rated that highly in 2014 is not consistent with how they would be drafted now if we redid the 2014 draft.
I personally do not believe that two frequently injured players in Marchbank and Pickett, who between them have played circa 6 games for GWS in 2 years will command pick #5. Think GWS would clear them at a discount as they have immediate academy replacements this year in guys like Perryman, Sproule, Harrison Macreadie (instant Marchbank replacement), Will Setterfield, Kobe Mutch, etc. GWS can afford to be ruthless with their list right now and get more locals to avoid go home risk. Marshall is also important to them so a swap of #5 for #7 may happen (although we would more likely draft a midfielder so not high risk).
I would be very disappointed if we gave up #5 for the pair as we would get more games from drafting #5.

GWS want to keep Marchbank and other clubs also want him. What is his standalone value?

6 games between Charlie Curnow and McKay so far with both being injured and/or ill. Would you trade them both for #23?

 

[BluesRule]

GWS want to keep Marchbank and other clubs also want him. What is his standalone value?

6 games between Charlie Curnow and McKay so far with both being injured and/or ill. Would you trade them both for #23?

GWS resigned to the fact KJ wants to exit and announced same. If he nominates us then a deal will be done that satisfies us and them, but I very much doubt pick #5 will be it.

Charlie and Harry are first year players so not really a fair comparison. Both in contract. If they do not play at all in 2017 then pick #23 is a real prospect, but not our concern yet, and I certainly hope that does not happen.

we got pick #83 for Garlett, etc.
Sweet FA for Robbo, Eddie, Waite, Laidler, etc.

Conversely we got Doc for pick #33. Plowman et. al. for #28.
Trading may not match original draft pick #'s.

I do not think another team will offer a first rounder for just Marchbank and Pickett, as the depth in this draft to #20 looks good and would be of more value.

 

[Mister Carlton]

Pickett looked lightning quick in his draft year but has a body shape that worries me.

Looks a lot like his cousin Byron

Does he have the ability to stay in shape long term?

His injury is also a concern so I guess he would come severely discounted (like Sumner)

Pick 23 for Pickett and Marchbank sounds achievable

Fat club 2.0.

 

[BluesRule]

Pickett looked lightning quick in his draft year but has a body shape that worries me.

Looks a lot like his cousin Byron

Does he have the ability to stay in shape long term?

His injury is also a concern so I guess he would come severely discounted (like Sumner)

Pick 23 for Pickett and Marchbank sounds achievable

I agree adding Pickett probably decreases the trade cost for us.
like the Plowman deal last year.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

GWS resigned to the fact KJ wants to exit and announced same. If he nominates us then a deal will be done that satisfies us and them, but I very much doubt pick #5 will be it.

Charlie and Harry are first year players so not really a fair comparison. Both in contract. If they do not play at all in 2017 then pick #23 is a real prospect, but not our concern yet, and I certainly hope that does not happen.

we got pick #83 for Garlett, etc.
Sweet FA for Robbo, Eddie, Waite, Laidler, etc.

Conversely we got Doc for pick #33. Plowman et. al. for #28.
Trading may not match original draft pick #'s.

I do not think another team will offer a first rounder for just Marchbank and Pickett, as the depth in this draft to #20 looks good and would be of more value.

Charlie and Harry might not be fair comparisons but neither are Plowman and Sumner.

 

[Malifice]

Marchbank and Pickett almost certain to join us.

Hope so. Jarrods a bloody gun.

 

[1981]

GWS need to clear spots and cap space, so it is not like a normal trade scenario. It is unique.
How cheap we can get them though is debatable. But I think whatever would seem right under normal circumstances you can take off 30%.

 

[passmark]

More like Yarran IMO.

I was thinking more Andrew McLeod when I watched him.

 

[1981]

Relieving cap space for example is half way to getting GWS another player. When you think about it.

 

[Malifice]

What's Pickett like? Any good?

Absolute gun on talent. One of those blokes with a 'wow' highlights reel as a junior.

His issue will be adjusting to the increased training demands and structures of AFL. Can fade in and out of games. If he can add consistency to his game, would be a gun.

Put him in a good learning environment (Bolton) and give him some opportunities, and he's every chance to be very very good.





The red flag is the lack of consistency, and a very serious foot injury this year undoing his development and restricting him from running work and continuing to build a tank (its probably set him back a year or two).

Pretty level headed kid.

 

[HBF]

I was thinking more Andrew McLeod when I watched him.

If he could be half as good as Mcleod i'd be happy.

 

[TommyMcG]

Pickett doesn't seem to be held in high regard by too many GWS posters. They seem to think he hasn't handled his rehab program well at all.

 

[BluesRule]

Charlie and Harry might not be fair comparisons but neither are Plowman and Sumner.

GWS:
1. want to reduce list size
2. want to reduce list salary size (flexibility) so the 'Stars' cannot be tempted to leave by better $$$ offers and you can grab free agents.
3. have 7 talented academy kids this year (more next year) at a discount, ranked in top 50 and cover a range of positions.

How do you maximise your position?
1. Trade up the draft - so you get an extra pick? Yes but you can only have so many and some draftees may want to go home?
2. Build a war chest.
3. Get in quality locals who are less likely to want to go home and will want to be part of founding a winning team?
4. Make sure your quality players do not go to your major competitors (currently Swans, Hawks, maybe WCE, etc.)

If we trade 5 for 7 and Marchbank plus also take Pickett as steak knifes then GWS achieve 1-4 by drafting Marshall, even though it sounds a crap deal.
If we give up 5 they do better, but we would also do better by holding #5 and getting a very high quality player in the draft so SOS says no deal IMO.
If we give up #23 GWS lose two talented but so far injured players with go home risk to get another pick to draft an academy kid, have more cap space to make sure the existing talent stays, free up 2 list spots and salary cap as academy kids cost less, and CFC are not considered a contender so no harm there. No Brainer that this deal makes sense for GWS. Hell even pick #41 and #48 would work, as the discount would make sure they get 2 academy kids that are better than those picks.
Alternatively our 2017 second round pick would work, but I hope we do not trade it as it is a super draft (I hope).

 

[ajb72]

Absolute gun on talent. One of those blokes with a 'wow' highlights reel as a junior.

His issue will be adjusting to the increased training demands and structures of AFL. Can fade in and out of games. If he can add consistency to his game, would be a gun.

Put him in a good learning environment (Bolton) and give him some opportunities, and he's every chance to be very very good.





The red flag is the lack of consistency, and a very serious foot injury this year undoing his development and restricting him from running work and continuing to build a tank (its probably set him back a year or two).

Pretty level headed kid.

First couple of minutes of that highlight package and I was ready to hit the delist before we even get him button!

But, certainly looks like he has some good skills.

 

[HARKER]

Pickett doesn't seem to be held in high regard by too many GWS posters. They seem to think he hasn't handled his rehab program well at all.

If we got him cheap because of this, then I'd be thrilled.
If we indeed have interest in Pickett, then we must know we can get him right.

Don't think SOS and co are in the mood to take chances and neither would Bolton be.
You just can't afford to spend too much time on any one player...not the coach...assistant coaches...leadership group...or even ones peers.
If Pickett comes then he already knows what he has to do.

 

[Malifice]

There's no way GWS would give us Marchbank (pick 6) and Pickett (pick 4) from 2014 for pick 23.

Future 2nd.

 

[Funk]

All I'm doing is giving bit of info can gives heaps more but this is my last post happy now???..BYE

Sorry barass70 but I have no idea how your response relates to my post.

It was a jocular reference to the goose from Collingwood that went through an open door and took photos on Sunday.

I never post to deliberately offend anyone - sorry if any offence was taken.

 

[Soapy V]

im going to call it early but sos will trade everitt kruezer tuohy graham & boekhurst. will try with casboult but no buyers. just my opinion

 

[Funk]

It's be bigger news if the challenger had a point of difference, but they're keeping Hardwick, Gale and Dan Richardson.

Tigers are making CFC look like a well oiled machine

 

[Magruder]

All I'm doing is giving bit of info can gives heaps more but this is my last post happy now???..BYE

Noooooo

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

GWS:
1. want to reduce list size
2. want to reduce list salary size (flexibility) so the 'Stars' cannot be tempted to leave by better $$$ offers and you can grab free agents.
3. have 7 talented academy kids this year (more next year) at a discount, ranked in top 50 and cover a range of positions.

How do you maximise your position?
1. Trade up the draft - so you get an extra pick? Yes but you can only have so many and some draftees may want to go home?
2. Build a war chest.
3. Get in quality locals who are less likely to want to go home and will want to be part of founding a winning team?
4. Make sure your quality players do not go to your major competitors (currently Swans, Hawks, maybe WCE, etc.)

If we trade 5 for 7 and Marchbank plus also take Pickett as steak knifes then GWS achieve 1-4 by drafting Marshall, even though it sounds a crap deal.
If we give up 5 they do better, but we would also do better by holding #5 and getting a very high quality player in the draft so SOS says no deal IMO.
If we give up #23 GWS lose two talented but so far injured players with go home risk to get another pick to draft an academy kid, have more cap space to make sure the existing talent stays, free up 2 list spots and salary cap as academy kids cost less, and CFC are not considered a contender so no harm there. No Brainer that this deal makes sense for GWS. Hell even pick #41 and #48 would work, as the discount would make sure they get 2 academy kids that are better than those picks.
Alternatively our 2017 second round pick would work, but I hope we do not trade it as it is a super draft (I hope).

You are assuming the only way they can reduce list size is by giving away top 10 2nd year players for nothing.

Do they have better candidates to give away? Do they have any players out of contract? Will any other clubs potentially be interested in such a deal and create a bidding war? Will such a trade completely alienate their supporter base?

Would we do that deal if we were then and totally negate their 2014 draft for peanuts?

I would much rather work from a low expectation base and be pleasantly surprised than expect the world and send out a lynch mob should it not work out that way.

 

[Cringle]

#5 and #23 for Marchbank, Pickett and #16.

Maybe Stewart too?

 

[Funk]

Yes. These guys are second year players and people are acting like they are burdens on the GWS system.

They are not Jaksch and Whiley and not Lamb, Sumner or Phillips types with 3-4 years in the system.

2014 pick 4 and pick 6. Rated by all in that draft.

#5 has to be gone or our first rounder next year.

Maybe we can swing #5 and #23 for the pair and one of their late first rounders at a pinch.

The "price" of the deal will largely depend on what other assistance we offer GWS with other GWS contracted players they wish to move on - and have us swallow their contracts.

These contracts are what will provide any discounts on the overall deal - as Sumner and Lamb did last year.