Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion - Part 2

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Hate to interrupt......

No you don't.

 

[Jimmae]

Exciting forward Willie Rioli set to join Daniel and Cyril in the AFL (incognito link)

Sheehan said players like Rioli, the cousin of Richmond’s Daniel and Hawthorn’s Cyril, showed the comprehensive depth in the 2017 draft crop.

Clubs like Carlton plan to take as many as seven picks to cash in on the depth of talent.

 

[Jeremias]

7 picks - 5, 25, 48, 63, 66, 70, 81

Assuming we keep the 38/6/1 split from last year we'll need to delist 6 more from the senior list which I can't see happening.

39/5/1 = delist 5 more
40/4/1 = delist 4 more

Current OOC players are - Buckley, DVR, Tutt, Whiley, Graham and Everitt.

Tutt and Whiley you'd expect are both certainties to drop off the list. DVR and at least one of Everitt/Graham are in a bit of trouble I'd say.

I'd be very surprised should Buckley not be retained.

 

[Faz 2000]

Anyone else not sold on the "we want a pick in every round" version of events for the Hawks trade? I love the idea we'll find some gold at 48, 63, et al.... but we have a sickening track record of not finding anything after about pick 20. The guys we're delisting this year that were drafted just two years ago... whilst we're all fawning over a Mitch McGovern (pick 40-odd) of the same vintage. I know it's been done/asked 8 billion times, but can we just not SPOT talent or not DEVELOP the talent? Smith, Foster, DVR, all these guys were apparently steals with upside etc when we picked them, and we've got maybe.... 3 AFL games from them combined? IN a shocking side!

Anyway. Don't mind me. Just having a moment. Maybe it'll all be better.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Anyone else not sold on the "we want a pick in every round" version of events for the Hawks trade? I love the idea we'll find some gold at 48, 63, et al.... but we have a sickening track record of not finding anything after about pick 20. The guys we're delisting this year that were drafted just two years ago... whilst we're all fawning over a Mitch McGovern (pick 40-odd) of the same vintage. I know it's been done/asked 8 billion times, but can we just not SPOT talent or not DEVELOP the talent? Smith, Foster, DVR, all these guys were apparently steals with upside etc when we picked them, and we've got maybe.... 3 AFL games from them combined? IN a shocking side!

Anyway. Don't mind me. Just having a moment. Maybe it'll all be better.

Yeah, it was a silly comment from McKay. If you've got 5 picks, you'd rather them all in round 1 rather than one in each round up to pick 80ish.

Just PR, "all part of the plan" nonsense. No reason for him to trot it out other than that he had nothing worthwhile to say.

The reality is that, in order to get our fantastic combination of picks last year, we had to lose Henderson, Yarran, Bell, Menzel - four best 22 players. This season we lost Tuohy. We probably would have liked another two first rounders via the Gibbs trade, but Adelaide tried to offer us peanuts.

 

[LordLucifer]

7 picks - 5, 25, 48, 63, 66, 70, 81

Assuming we keep the 38/6/1 split from last year we'll need to delist 6 more from the senior list which I can't see happening.

39/5/1 = delist 5 more
40/4/1 = delist 4 more

Current OOC players are - Buckley, DVR, Tutt, Whiley, Graham and Everitt.

Tutt and Whiley you'd expect are both certainties to drop off the list. DVR and at least one of Everitt/Graham are in a bit of trouble I'd say.

I'd be very surprised should Buckley not be retained.

Byrne will be upgraded to the main list but placed on the LTI list for the main part of the season. As for who else gets the chop, take your pick :

Gowers (rookie)
Sheehan (rookie)
Tutt
Viojo-Rainbow
Whiley
Graham
Everitt
Buckley
Gallucci (rookie)
Jaksch (pay out his last year ??)
White (contract pay out ??)
Jones (pay out his last year ??)

For some strange reason I think Everitt will survive this year's cull.

 

[Jimmae]

7 picks - 5, 25, 48, 63, 66, 70, 81

Assuming we keep the 38/6/1 split from last year we'll need to delist 6 more from the senior list which I can't see happening.

39/5/1 = delist 5 more
40/4/1 = delist 4 more

Current OOC players are - Buckley, DVR, Tutt, Whiley, Graham and Everitt.

Tutt and Whiley you'd expect are both certainties to drop off the list. DVR and at least one of Everitt/Graham are in a bit of trouble I'd say.

I'd be very surprised should Buckley not be retained.

We had a 39/5/2 split.

 

[Soapy V]

7 picks - 5, 25, 48, 63, 66, 70, 81

Assuming we keep the 38/6/1 split from last year we'll need to delist 6 more from the senior list which I can't see happening.

39/5/1 = delist 5 more
40/4/1 = delist 4 more

Current OOC players are - Buckley, DVR, Tutt, Whiley, Graham and Everitt.

Tutt and Whiley you'd expect are both certainties to drop off the list. DVR and at least one of Everitt/Graham are in a bit of trouble I'd say.

I'd be very surprised should Buckley not be retained.

dvr tutt & everitt can go. buckley another year but not convinced. graham i would rookie list.

 

[Faz 2000]

Yeah, it was a silly comment from McKay. If you've got 5 picks, you'd rather them all in round 1 rather than one in each round up to pick 80ish.

That and it just makes the "future second" we gave to Hawthorn an outright, inexplicable loss of a trade. I still don't get it.

 

[Jeremias]

We had a 39/5/2 split.

Thanks - but it doesn't change the point of the post.

That and it just makes the "future second" we gave to Hawthorn an outright, inexplicable loss of a trade. I still don't get it.

We gave Hawthorn a pick which could blow out beyond 40 to get back into the stages of the draft we traded out of to get Marchbank and Pickett to the club.

It'll equate to a slight loss on points but not one to be overly concerned about, surely.

 

[Jimmae]

Thanks - but it doesn't change the point of the post.

It does once you factor in Byrne's elevation. Will take a minimum of 5 delistings for us to be able to take 7 picks at the draft.

 

[Blue__Balls]

That and it just makes the "future second" we gave to Hawthorn an outright, inexplicable loss of a trade. I still don't get it.

I've covered this elsewhere, but I don't think it will be that much of a loss (if it's a loss at all).

GWS probably make the GF next year. That means their pick will be around 35-36.
Huge amount of FA's next year means that pick probably gets pushed back 4-8 spots.
Worst case scenario, it ends up being Pick 40, which is only worth about 10-15 points more than the three picks we got back.
This year's draft is supposedly one of the deepest ones we've had in a while.

On top of that, we earn goodwill with Hawthorn and GC for helping to break their deadlock, and every other club has us on speed-dial from now on if they want to discuss pick swaps, putting us in the box seat to help ourselves by helping others in future trade periods. We can always say no if the deal isn't right, but as long as clubs are approaching us then we'll have options.

 

[LordLucifer]

We gave Hawthorn a pick which could blow out beyond 40 to get back into the stages of the draft we traded out of to get Marchbank and Pickett to the club.

It'll equate to a slight loss on points but not one to be overly concerned about, surely.

After some reflection on that trading with Hawthorn, I am quite confident that we will be rewarded for it somehow next year because they now owe us a favour.

We have Bolton from the Hawks & SOS formerly from GWS and we have very good trading relationships with both clubs.

 

[Dramoth]

So we currently have 37 listed player , if Byrne is upgraded that'll be 38 of 39. Is that correct ? If so , would we likely delist 4 players to give us 5 in the ND?

I think you will find that we might be looking at delisting 5 players and go for a list of 40/4/2. 40 players on the senior list, 4 rookies, 2 cat b rookies.

I think that we will attempt to move Sheehan to the cat b list if we don't delist him. Byrne will be promoted to the senior list. I've heard rumours that we are going to delist DVR and pick him up as a rookie for 12 months.

Outside of that... your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Faz 2000]

We gave Hawthorn a pick which could blow out beyond 40 to get back into the stages of the draft we traded out of to get Marchbank and Pickett to the club.

It'll equate to a slight loss on points but not one to be overly concerned about, surely.

I've covered this elsewhere, but I don't think it will be that much of a loss (if it's a loss at all).

Good insights, analysis, thanks.

 

[BluesRule]

Byrne will be upgraded to the main list but placed on the LTI list for the main part of the season. As for who else gets the chop, take your pick :


For some strange reason I think Everitt will survive this year's cull.

Agree. We have lost Jamo, Wood, Walker (can play tall), and Foster so far so I agree Dre is a chance to stay for his experience/size. Basically gives us some depth cover for SOS and CC in 2017. One year contract only.

 

[johnsy14]

Jaksch (pay out his last year ??)
White (contract pay out ??)
Jones (pay out his last year ??)

For some strange reason I think Everitt will survive this year's cull.

I can't remember the last time someone with a contract was paid out.

 

[Spitfire1801]

After some reflection on that trading with Hawthorn, I am quite confident that we will be rewarded for it somehow next year because they now owe us a favour.

We have Bolton from the Hawks & SOS formerly from GWS and we have very good trading relationships with both clubs.

Could it be "We helped with JOM, back off Fyfe"

 

[BluesRule]

Could it be "We helped with JOM, back off Fyfe"

WISH. But Hawks will go hard at Fyfe to stay a powerhouse (for free).
Hope our offer is too good.

 

[Dramoth]

WISH. But Hawks will go hard at Fyfe to stay a powerhouse (for free).
Hope our offer is too good.

They won't have the money unless they sever themselves from some of their experienced players who are going to want a pay rise thanks to the contracts that were given to JOM and Mitchell.

 

[fizzkakz]

Jaksch (pay out his last year ??)
White (contract pay out ??)
Jones (pay out his last year ??)

I don't see the point in paying out the contracts, particularly for White and Jones. They may not set the world of fire but I don't think grabbing at kid at pick 100 is going to be a better replacement. Besides White has shown he is capable of playing a negative or shutdown team role and is hard at it. I'd be happy to have him setting an example for the kids and showing leadership at the Northern Blues. I wouldn't be paying someone else unless their attitude was toxic.



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[La Dispute]

Yeah, it was a silly comment from McKay. If you've got 5 picks, you'd rather them all in round 1 rather than one in each round up to pick 80ish.

Just PR, "all part of the plan" nonsense. No reason for him to trot it out other than that he had nothing worthwhile to say.

The reality is that, in order to get our fantastic combination of picks last year, we had to lose Henderson, Yarran, Bell, Menzel - four best 22 players. This season we lost Tuohy. We probably would have liked another two first rounders via the Gibbs trade, but Adelaide tried to offer us peanuts.

A lot of those picks will come down due to clubs passing. There is a perceived lack of depth and subsequently players were traded for nothing picks, on the assumption they'd come up in value come draft night.

I'm happy to see what SOS can with our later picks actually. For years we haven't been able to find any decent picks later in the draft, but I'm excited about what sort of players he takes. So far he has had it pretty easy, with GWS having a stack of early picks and even last year, our selections were fairly early.

Good clubs are capable of finding role players later in the draft and I hope there's still some decent talent available to work with. Get them on the path and develop them together.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

I hear what you are saying and generally agree..... except I do think Rowe is unfairly added in that list. He was a rock last year and made the top 10 of the B&F. He was amongst the first selected each week.

Compare that to others in the list...

Rowe being on the list doesn't mean he is poor. It is just the the club can't afford to give 2-4 year deals to players who most presume aren't going to be around for that long( regardless whether they are good or just ageing).

Most of these players I'd be giving 1-2 year deals on fairly reasonable money while two or three would see their time end. Rowe would be one of the few getting small contracts for the rest of his career.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Byrne will be upgraded to the main list but placed on the LTI list for the main part of the season. As for who else gets the chop, take your pick :

Gowers (rookie)
Sheehan (rookie)
Tutt
Viojo-Rainbow
Whiley
Graham
Everitt
Buckley
Gallucci (rookie)
Jaksch (pay out his last year ??)
White (contract pay out ??)
Jones (pay out his last year ??)

For some strange reason I think Everitt will survive this year's cull.

I think ignoring contracts, tiers are formed:

MUST MOVE ON
-Tutt (no probs)
-Jones (pay out if we can afford)

OLD DUDES BUT PLAYING OK (I.E. LIST CLOGGERS)
-Everitt

YOUNG GUYS I'VE GIVEN UP HOPE ON
-VR
-Whiley
-Jacksch

YOUNG GUYS I HOLD HOPE FOR
-Graham
-Buckley

ROOKIES
-Not sure how these are treated

 

[MightyMighties]

Is there a deadline for delistings or is it just anytime before the draft?