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2016 Draft discussion

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Quigley said:
Declan Watson

Watson seems to be falling down the draft lists and the way things are heading someone could end up with a very big bargain. He is a Lions academy player but with the Lions having a large gap after their fourth pick at 22 there might be a real chance of another team grabbing Watson. I think Watson looks like a prototypical modern defender who will work very well in an AFL zone defence. He is capable in a shut down role but I do not think this is his strength.

Watson is a very good judge of the ball in the air for a key defender and is at his best when he has the flexibility to play in space and back himself to get to the ball. When he has that space it is noticeable how frequently he is the guy in the best position to mark the ball. He is not put off when others in the contest gets out of position and he will back himself in. His hands are very good for a KPD and he can clunk his marks. He shows good awareness for when to mark and when to spoil.

The Combine results would have been a disappointment for Watson and for me things didn't really align with what I have seen of him on the field. Like quite a few he measured short and I think the 194cm he was listed as at the Champs is more likely to be accurate. He looks to have decent size. I note that his arms measured long and his reach was in at the 87th percentile which seems right. I think he has enough height to play KPD at AFL level. Pace was another area where watching him play he seems to have more than enough. Perhaps it is just that he reacts quicker than others but in game situations he looks pretty quick. The sprint results at the Combine were a bit confusing. He managed only a 3.11 for the 20m (disappointing but not disasterous) which was in the bottom 15% of those tested. In the 30m repeat sprint though he was in the top 30% which is where I had been hoping to see him in the 20m as well.

His agility test was also poor which you do not want to see from a KPD. A lot of guys who do not train for the agility test do poorly in it and I would hope this was the case for Watson. He is not a guy who seems to have trouble recovering in game situations. His endurance testing was pretty middle of the pack.

I think Watson has suffered in many eye's because of he had his worst game of the year in the televised game against WA. So there are all the highlights out there of him missing targets time and again. I have seen him 7 or 8 times over the year and I think that game really misrepresented the quality of his disposal skills. Watson is an excellent kick for a KP and has been the designated kick in taker for most of the teams he has played with. He is good in that role and you can see the quality of his kicks. In field play he reads the play well and is not afraid to take the tight options. This can sometimes result in turnovers but I do like his confidence and in most games the results are good and he can put his teammates away. The feel on his kicks is usually very good although it can go missing sometimes.

Watson has good penetration on his handballs but he can miss targets sometimes. Under pressure Watson is composed and is not one of the KPDs who gets flustered and gives the ball away whenever someone gets close to him. He can sometimes handball to a close target under pressure but I think this has often been as much the fault of the receiver as of Watson.

Overall I really like Watson and hope the Lions pick him up. I see him developing into a very skilled, intercept marking defender who can participate effectively both ways.
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Being a friend of Declan. I really hope we get him.
 
our draft preview podcast with Matt Garland and Brett Anderson-

https://audioboom.com/posts/5271029-on-the-clock-brisbane-lions-draft-preview

edit- should have listened to it before posting, a waste of time, Anderson spent half the time winging that the lions aren't going to bid on Bowes. then didn't even mention any likely players at 21 and 22, just skipped over it in the last few seconds.
 
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I've spoken about most of the Qld guys in depth here during the year, so won't rehash old ground.

Allison - Quigley's analysis was interesting. Qld tried to play his as an inside mid to improve his contested game and see if he could churn out high numbers, but it's just not his go. To me, he projects as a line/zone breaking guy from half back or the wing. He's not going to slice zones apart with his accuracy, it's his turn of foot and depth which will hurt teams. He reminds me of Stephen Hill when he plays half back/wing.

Rolls - just doesn't have any AFL attributes IMO. He's a nice player who does a lot of things well, I just don't see how he projects as an AFL player. He's a good runner and disciplined so may flourish in a professional environment you never know.

Himmelberg - can't be taken by our academy. Similar to his brother, athletic and raw. Liked his work up forward early in the year, plenty to work with. Would take ahead of Watson.

The Suns have 3 good ones this year. I think Williams will be taken before any of our guys.
 
I have huge question marks over Ainsworth and TBH I think it's a reach to select him at 3.biggest problem for mine is that he hasn't really been that productive and while he plays some great footy for a quarter he goes missing too easily. I'd take Taranto, Brodie, and maybe SPS ahead of him as they have a more consistent game. I'm honestly at a loss as to why Ainsworth is rated so highly on this board when IMO I have him around the 6-8 mark and a few people I've spoken to with links also have him around that ball park although others do rate him as the 2nd best prospect. I suppose it's a great thing to have so many rated equally at the pointy of the draft... Everyone's a winner. Going to be an exciting draft that's for sure and our recruiters will know what they rate as the best player available.
 
SizeMatters said:
I have huge question marks over Ainsworth and TBH I think it's a reach to select him at 3.biggest problem for mine is that he hasn't really been that productive and while he plays some great footy for a quarter he goes missing too easily. I'd take Taranto, Brodie, and maybe SPS ahead of him as they have a more consistent game. I'm honestly at a loss as to why Ainsworth is rated so highly on this board when IMO I have him around the 6-8 mark and a few people I've spoken to with links also have him around that ball park although others do rate him as the 2nd best prospect. I suppose it's a great thing to have so many rated equally at the pointy of the draft... Everyone's a winner. Going to be an exciting draft that's for sure and our recruiters will know what they rate as the best player available.
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You don't see the same attributes in footballers that I do obviously..
Ainsworth has a combination of footskills, athleticism, mental toughness, overhead marking and defensive pressure that are all amongst the very best in this draft pool.

He has played midfield and forward both to a high standard and has consistently proven to be an impact player in big games.

Missed chunks of the year through injury and suspension but still came back for his TAC club and dominated finals and then blew up the combine testing.

Your having a laugh if you think a kid with that combination of talents isn't worth pick 3.

Oh and he actually wants to go to the Lions as a bonus.. If available, he is as simple a choice as Schache last year.
 
SizeMatters said:
I have huge question marks over Ainsworth and TBH I think it's a reach to select him at 3.biggest problem for mine is that he hasn't really been that productive and while he plays some great footy for a quarter he goes missing too easily. I'd take Taranto, Brodie, and maybe SPS ahead of him as they have a more consistent game. I'm honestly at a loss as to why Ainsworth is rated so highly on this board when IMO I have him around the 6-8 mark and a few people I've spoken to with links also have him around that ball park although others do rate him as the 2nd best prospect. I suppose it's a great thing to have so many rated equally at the pointy of the draft... Everyone's a winner. Going to be an exciting draft that's for sure and our recruiters will know what they rate as the best player available.
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It's not just this board. Our recruiters definitely rate Ainsworth highly. Potentially no#1 on our draft board.

Junior "production" is just one part of the picture. See Bontempelli.
 
Crusha said:
2016 Draft Machine .....up and running.
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Couldn't resist ..... having not seen much, if anything, of him previously ..... had to go straight to Witherden ....... 'cause, you know, those 2-3 min clips tell you all you need to know about a Draft Prospect (well, in Big Footy Land, anyway).

Given those highlights are all from his Bottom Age year, there is certainly some evidence of what "people" have been saying (limited though it is).
Enough anyway, for me to re-visit some of the comments/valuations/opinions to which I pay heed.
 
He showed plenty of production when he actually played as a midfielder at the end of the year. For the rest of the time when you play as a forward you will be up and down. But he has shown that ability to turn a game in a quarter playing forward.
 
This talk of Essendon genuinely be interested with Setterfield at pick 1 is intriguing. I wonder what we'd do if both Ainsworth and McCluggage were available for our pick?
 

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One thing is for sure, none of us will have a say in it. Whomever we take, development and retention will be our challenges, not raw talent.
 
Something I always find interesting around draft time is dates of birth. At that age and development level, the difference between someone born in January and someone born in December is huge.

The notable older and younger players, for us, are:

Older Players
Ben Ainsworth - born Feb 10, 1998
Hugh McCluggage - born March 3, 1998
Tim Taranto - born January 28, 1998
Sam Petrevski-Seton - born February 19, 1998

Jarrod Berry - born February 5, 1998
Josh Rotham - born February 25, 1998
Sam Powell-Pepper - born January 8, 1998

Younger Players
Daniel Venables - November 19, 1998
Shai Bolton - December 8, 1998

The count here speaks volumes to me. All in all, I count it as 8 first round prospects born in Jan-Feb, 3 first round prospects born Nov-Dec (the others were: older - Bowes, Setterfield. younger - Perryman). That's a huge variance, and for me, says that it's harder for younger guys at that age, and therefore guys like Venables and Bolton should be considered slightly higher than an equivalent player born earlier in the year, because they're potentially less matured on draft day, and therefore have more growth potential.

Effectively, if you want to compare someone like Powell-Pepper to someone like Bolton, it's possibly more fair to consider how Powell-Pepper was last year, not this year.
 
spotthedog1 said:
Something I always find interesting around draft time is dates of birth. At that age and development level, the difference between someone born in January and someone born in December is huge.
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This is what I like to call "4:30 on Friday" analysis... My brain's still working, but it's obviously not at work any more...
 
jason pm said:
i went-
Hugh McCluggage
Andrew McGrath
Ben Ainsworth
Jack Bowes
Tim Taranto
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Will Setterfield
Will Brodie
Jarrod Berry
Griffin Logue
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Bowes can't go at 4, that's GC's pick....unless they decide to pre-empt bidding, which they won't.
 

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blueiris said:
It goes back to trade week when Schwab said he was confident that McLuggage would be available at 3 obviously he knows who GWS are taking and all signs point to Ben hopefully in a few years he still wants to play for us and asks for a trade
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He won't. Let's not get carried away. He isn't a diehard Lions fan or anything or the sort, all he has said is that he'd be happy to come here, not that we are his top preference, let alone his only preference. Let's not read more into it than that.

Let's not carry on like Ralph Wiggum after Lisa gave him a sympathy Valentines card.
 
blueiris said:
It goes back to trade week when Schwab said he was confident that McLuggage would be available at 3 obviously he knows who GWS are taking and all signs point to Ben hopefully in a few years he still wants to play for us and asks for a trade
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Its more the fact that Essendon were/have been keen on Will Brodie (most of the year) and only recently the focus switched from Brodie to McCluggage.
If Ess pick Brodie, then McCluggage will be a lion - this is what Schwab was probably referring to.
However, the more likely scenario is that McCluggage will head to the Bombers and Ainsworth will be ours.

SizeMatters said:
I have huge question marks over Ainsworth and TBH I think it's a reach to select him at 3.biggest problem for mine is that he hasn't really been that productive and while he plays some great footy for a quarter he goes missing too easily. I'd take Taranto, Brodie, and maybe SPS ahead of him as they have a more consistent game. I'm honestly at a loss as to why Ainsworth is rated so highly on this board when IMO I have him around the 6-8 mark and a few people I've spoken to with links also have him around that ball park although others do rate him as the 2nd best prospect. I suppose it's a great thing to have so many rated equally at the pointy of the draft... Everyone's a winner. Going to be an exciting draft that's for sure and our recruiters will know what they rate as the best player available.
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I have seen this bloke play a few times over the past 2 years and he oozes class.
There is something special about him and something seems to happen when the ball is in his vicinity.
Think of Zorko & R.Gray and that is hopefully Ainsworth in a few years.
There is also a hardness about him that separates him from the others.
 
spotthedog1 said:
Something I always find interesting around draft time is dates of birth. At that age and development level, the difference between someone born in January and someone born in December is huge.

The notable older and younger players, for us, are:

Older Players
Ben Ainsworth - born Feb 10, 1998
Hugh McCluggage - born March 3, 1998
Tim Taranto - born January 28, 1998
Sam Petrevski-Seton - born February 19, 1998

Jarrod Berry - born February 5, 1998
Josh Rotham - born February 25, 1998
Sam Powell-Pepper - born January 8, 1998

Younger Players
Daniel Venables - November 19, 1998
Shai Bolton - December 8, 1998

The count here speaks volumes to me. All in all, I count it as 8 first round prospects born in Jan-Feb, 3 first round prospects born Nov-Dec (the others were: older - Bowes, Setterfield. younger - Perryman). That's a huge variance, and for me, says that it's harder for younger guys at that age, and therefore guys like Venables and Bolton should be considered slightly higher than an equivalent player born earlier in the year, because they're potentially less matured on draft day, and therefore have more growth potential.

Effectively, if you want to compare someone like Powell-Pepper to someone like Bolton, it's possibly more fair to consider how Powell-Pepper was last year, not this year.
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interesting spot, a year at that age would make a difference, a little bit keener on Bolton and Venables now.
 
I did the predictor on the AFL website. I went with;

1. ESS - McCluggage
2. GWS - McGrath
3. BL - Ainsworth
4. GC - Brodie
5. Carl - SPS
6. GC - Taranto
7. GC - Bowes
8. Freo - Berry
9. GWS - Setterfield
10. Syd - Logue
 

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