- Jun 4, 2016
- 14,593
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- Carlton
13 more years of murph. Only if he keeps up his current standard tyvm.
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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion
- Thread starter The Old Dark Navy's
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It says, "Likely to be used as a key forward"
I don't think he will built up that way but why not if he's up to it?
Is it because he's 194cm and not 195cm?
Charlie could easily be used a a KPF, if the club wanted to go that way.
- Moderator
- #6,153
Im only saying 1 more Key Forward. Thats it.
You rightly point out Tom Hawkins 2007-11: the four years it took him from being drafted to becoming the gun player he is today. He kicked 60+ goals in 2012 and has been Geelongs leading goalscorer each year since.
You cant make the argument that Geelong of 2007-11 would have been a worse team with a 60 goal Tom Hawkins in it.
Its the fact it takes 3-4 years for a Key Forward to come on that makes me think that we should draft one (and only one) this year. They'll be hitting their straps right when the window opens.
If McKay doesnt come on, and we have to draft a KPF in 2020 after focusing on mids for three years, we're screwed. That draftee will spend the first 4 years of the window (2020-2024) being played in the ressies. If we get a KPF thats ready for the 2020-25 window we need to do it before we get mids; this year at the latest.
The question comes down to: 'How confident are you that McKay is going to become a 60+goal CHF/FF in the mold of Hawkins?
If you're confident he will become that player by 2020, then I agree, we stock up on mids for the next 3 years (plus a ruck).
If the answer is you are not confident he will become that player, or you're 50/50 or even unsure will be, we should draft a single gun KPF to develop with him over the next 3 years (one draft pick, thats all), plus we draft mids with the rest of our picks this year and for the next two years (plus a ruck).
- Moderator
- #6,154
Eddie Betts is a Key Forward. LeCras is a Key Forward. Im talking power forward. Spine player. CHF.
Curnow will never be a 60 goal per year CHF in the mold of Hawkins, Cameron or Lynch.
Again, I see him as a tall utility played mainly forward and midfield. Elite endurance and a good grab, but he's raw. That rawness means he doesn't read the game as well as a key forward needs to, and he is slightly undersized for a key post.
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Bulldogs played Cordy and Boyd/Roughead as key forwards in the GF. I agree with you re Stringer but he ain't a KPF and isn't played like one unless they're desperate.
Darling is a better analogy though...but I think Charlie will be wasted as a full time FF or whatever. We need a structure that allows him to be flexible
Oh definitely agree with that. All high picked over next couple of years need to improve midfield
thylacine60
Post-Human
- Banned
- #6,157
nobody tells this bloke where he can and can't play
SOS does like his power forwards and unless that changes, we'll be in the market for one soon enough.
The point is that unless the 'right' one is available, I don't see us reaching just to complete our list.
Happy to get that forward in '19 or even '20 if that's what it would take to get the best.
Don't mind that being the last cherry we put on top.
The real positive about Levi's improvement (apart from the obvious) is that it buys us a bit of time, assuming he stays. We can afford to speculate with a couple of later picks over the coming two drafts knowing that they have a couple of years.
- Moderator
- #6,160
And I disagree.
I would look to take a KPF (CHF type) over a mid with our 1st rounder this year, assuming everything else being equal (there wasnt a stand out mid left on the board).
From there I would draft mids with the rest, plus more Mids with all of 2018's picks (plus F/S BSOS), then more mids in 2019 (plus throw 1 million plus at Dylan Sheil, who'll be a free agent). Id also try and smoke out a ruckman as a F/A over those 3 years.
Our midfield in 2020 then consists of Cripps, SPS, [Pick 17 Gibbs pick], [2018 1st rounder], [F/A Ruckman.], Shiel, Cuningham.
Our forward line consists of McKay, [2017 1st rounder CHF], BSOS, JSOS, Pickett and Curnow. Our backline is Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Mcreadie, Docherty, Williamson.
Int from (the best of): Byrne, Cunningham, Fisher, [Pick 19 Kruezer compo pick], [2019 1st rounder], [2019 second rounder], [2017 3rd rounder] [2019 third rounder] and Smedts if he's pulled his finger out.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Levi's threatened that for a long time, and had longer form patches than this in the past. I want a full season from him before we really talk seriously about his contract.
As for his longevity, I doubt he'll last to 34, but it's great to see him shed a few kilos so he doesn't continue to tear his body to shreds with his collision-heavy aerial game. The mobility has really helped him avoid a few extra contests this year.
Well....to be honest it's almost the same argument. We both seem to agree that we need more top line, AA type midfield talent and need to draft heavily in the midfield. The only difference is that you think we can afford to take a KPF with our first rounder this year because we can get Shiel as a free agent. I could just as easily argue that we should build the midfield, suss out how McKay is going, then pursue a KPF in free agency if he doesn't work out. We can't rely on Shiel coming (although maybe SOS knows something we don't).
The real issue is that our midfield needs heavy investment in one way or another.
- Moderator
- #6,163
I dont want us to reach at all. I dont advocate reaching in drafts. You should take the best available unless you can afford to roll the dice, and we cant afford to roll the dice. Also, I dont see any point in taking a key forward outside of the top 12 or so because statistically they dont do to well outside of that upper talent bracket.
If all else is equal, and we have a gun Mid or a future CHF available at our 1st, and both players are of comparable talent, I would take the CHF.
I would then draft a Mid with pick 17 (Gibbs) and another Mid with 19 (Kruezer compo). Id trade our third and fourth this year, for a future second from Hawthorn to pay for BSOS next year (they need the picks). Rookie a ruckman.
Then I'd go a midfielder with next years first, and pick up BSOS if he's any good as a F/S with the two seconds. Third and fourth rounder used on more mids.
In 2019 I would go another 1st on a mid, plus our second. Third and fourth on best available. I would also add Shiel as a FA.
That may turn out to be the case given the nature of our list but the aim should be to improve our depth in the draft as well as looking at what's available from the other clubs. If some club is stupid enough to overpay for someone like Jaksch or Jones then so be it. We shouldn't automatically be looking to on trade those picks for any old player, we should be specific. If that doesn't happen, keep the pick. As for Casboult, depending on the compensation we'd get, there's a case for trying to keep him and a case for letting him go. I'd er on the side of the latter even if it hurts a bit in the short term. I wouldn't be adverse to a surprise trade, either, if the good outweighs the bad.
I, I, I.
I, I, I would sooner develop what we have for the next couple of years building the on-ball division and then place the cherry on top.
- Moderator
- #6,166
The problem you have here is Mids (and Im talking elite mids) are much easier to get as F/A than KPF (who are as rare as hens teeth).
This year its Fyfe, Martin and Kelly. Last year, it was JOM, Mitchell (and Mitchell), Prestia, and Gibbs. Year before that it was Treloar and Dangerfield.
Dixon, Boyd and McCarthy have been the only KPF traded out over that same time, and they were all wantaway expansion kids.
Its ****ing hard prising a KPF out of a club, and they don't come up very often (around 1 per year) and competition is fierce for their services. OTOH there are always around 3 elite mids on the market each year (matching the fact that elite mids outnumber elite key CHF's by around 3 to 1).
The other thing is elite mids are common in the draft. The top 10 of any draft is going to be predominately mids, with maybe 1 Key Forward taken, and while there are plenty of good mids found outside the 1st round, almost all the elite forwards are found in the first round only. The mids can also play straight away and have an impact from season one; the Forwards takes time. Usually 3-4 years.
Charlie is a hybrid mid/fwd
Kouta - Bont combo
Perfect wing player also
Keep
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Kouta - Bont combo
Perfect wing player also
Keep
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- Apr 20, 2006
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- Carlton
I would actually be happy enough to lose both Kruez and Casboult if we could get band 2 and 3 picks for them. I like both players but we are still along way off contending and I'm happy to take a step backwards to take two forward in the future.
We already have no second round picks so if we stuff up our first round pick which is always a chance and can't attract anyone of note in trades we could potentially add no talented kids at the end of this season. (Our third pick will be 40+ and it's a roll of a dice from around there)
I think this will be the season SOS will be judged on because he will have to either nail the draft of move on much loved players.
We already have no second round picks so if we stuff up our first round pick which is always a chance and can't attract anyone of note in trades we could potentially add no talented kids at the end of this season. (Our third pick will be 40+ and it's a roll of a dice from around there)
I think this will be the season SOS will be judged on because he will have to either nail the draft of move on much loved players.
I AM CARLTON
Club Legend
- Mar 9, 2014
- 1,802
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Cordy 193cm
Stringer 192cm
But Stringer gets the better defender every day of the week.
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- Moderator
- #6,170
I, I, I.
I, I, I would sooner develop what we have for the next couple of years building the on-ball division and then place the cherry on top.
That makes no sense. My cherry on top is a F/A drafted when we've assembled the kids and are ready to start a genuine flag assault (2020+).
I also want to focus on midfielders over the next 3 drafts. But we need another Key Forward to finish off our spine of (Weitering/ Marchbank/ Cripps/ ?????/ McKay) presuming McKay makes it.
If you accept that gun CHF's:
A) take 3-4 years to develop, and
B) are much harder to find as F/A compared to a mid
Then it makes much more sense to draft the CHF now; then draft mids with the rest of our 2017, 18 and 19 picks, while we also top up with one more F/A midfielder during those three years (Shiel being my preferred target).
Filling a single spot in the midfield is much easier than filling a hole at CHF
From there we head into season 2020 with the rebuild done, development years finished, and ready for a genuine flag assault.
Its one goddamn draft pick Im talking about here. Not a legion of them. We have three more years of development and drafting to go; and its the sensible option getting that extra Key Forward in sooner rather than later.
Why are you so opposed?
- Moderator
- #6,171
But thats madness! Spending 3-4 years drafting midfielders while we wait for the window to open... and then the instant it opens drafting a Key Forward, knowing they take 3-4 years to come good!
Surely drafting the Key Forward now finishing off the spine, letting him use the 3-4 years we have up our sleeve to develop while we bring in the mids makes the most sense? You dont draft your power forward last. You get the spine in place, and assemble the midfield around them.
Shit; if we're short a midfielder come 2019/20 we just F/A one. Theyre much easier to find on the market than Key Forwards also.
- Aug 22, 2014
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Geez, this is still going?
Everyone agrees we need more mids.
Everyone agrees we need a KPF (either to pair with McKay or as insurance in case he doesn't make the grade).
If we want another KPF, it's smart to grab one in the first round, because they tend to be the most complete KPF draftees.
There may be an opportunity to grab a KPF as a Free Agent later, but there are less of them and they're harder to lure than mids.
So if there's a gun forward available at our first pick, and there isn't a ridiculously elite, must-have midfielder also available, grabbing the KPF makes sense.
If there are no KPF's who would be appropriate selections at our first pick, we don't reach for one who isn't highly rated. We wait til next year and take a look then.
We should not, under any circumstances, base our draft selections on the hope that a gun KPF free agent will decide to waltz over to Carlton in three years time, because if we're wrong then it will be too late to fix the hole in the list.
Sensible recruitment that allows for some margin of error.
Everyone agrees we need more mids.
Everyone agrees we need a KPF (either to pair with McKay or as insurance in case he doesn't make the grade).
If we want another KPF, it's smart to grab one in the first round, because they tend to be the most complete KPF draftees.
There may be an opportunity to grab a KPF as a Free Agent later, but there are less of them and they're harder to lure than mids.
So if there's a gun forward available at our first pick, and there isn't a ridiculously elite, must-have midfielder also available, grabbing the KPF makes sense.
If there are no KPF's who would be appropriate selections at our first pick, we don't reach for one who isn't highly rated. We wait til next year and take a look then.
We should not, under any circumstances, base our draft selections on the hope that a gun KPF free agent will decide to waltz over to Carlton in three years time, because if we're wrong then it will be too late to fix the hole in the list.
Sensible recruitment that allows for some margin of error.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
nobody tells this bloke where he can and can't play
Plagiarising post is plagiarising
Agree it could be better but we need more that a KPF to make this team work. Midfield is priority.
Also This is likely to be a midfielders draft, plus....
1. We had the best KPF in the AFL with Fev but we were smashed, it was not until our midfield of Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Simmo, Scotland, Carrotts, etc. developed in 2011 post Fev) that we looked competitive.
2. If you had a choice this draft between a Fev and a Judd who do you take?
For me it is Judd. (And I loved Fev!)
3. We have Kerr, McKay and Weiters developing - if we add BSOS next year, use LJ, Casboult, Rowe, KJ, etc. as depth we do not need to reach for a KPF this year. We also have talls down back who may swing forward.
4. Drafting KPF and ruck is really hard. Traded KPF include Buddy, Tippett, Kennedy, Dixon, Toyd, Vickery, LJ, etc. etc. Rucks is Witts, Big boy, Jacobs, Mumford, Maric*2, ...just about every team has traded in a ruck.
5. Lynch and Patton become free agents in the next few years.
Let me have a go at it.
Target Tom Lynch now. Work towards orchestrating an agreement in principle.
Build a fluent and cohesive mid-field in the mean time, ready to drop in the last piece of the puzzle.
That's one way of going about it as you'd know where you have to be at a certain point in time, in relation to the TPP.
If we are to target a KPF (could be anything up to 2mil) get all your ducks in a row first and not have the forward with no-one capable of getting the ball to them. That would be a waste.
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