Analysis Are we really contenders for the flag?

[CM9000]

Season starts again the minute home and away is over. If we are in the 8, and given a 6/3 start and the flat track that is Subi we most likely will be, then we can win a GF. Its that far away its almost not worth thinking about, anything could happen in September. Maybe we have NN back. Maybe the flag favourite lose key players, maybe, maybe, maybe.

The only thing that is certain is that there are a core group of player in our best 22 that have never stood up on the big stage in their life, and if they are there in September it makes things difficult. But not impossible.

Or, you know maybe break the mould and try a few of the East Perth boys and see what happens when they are out of a shit WAFL side and in an AFL match with their destiny finally in their hands. No player is a known quantity based on WAFL form, and half of the best players we've ever found have come off our rookie list. Expose players to opportunity, and discover who has character and who doesn't, who is willing to work for his team mates out there and who isn't, who is prepared to put his body on the line and who isn't.

And even knowing none of that is even going to happen, even with the same list we've taken to the last 2 finals series and come up short, even then, if we are playing finals we are contenders until we are not. You just never know your luck, sometimes all you have to do is show up on grand final day and the opposition is that shit you should be embarrassed to even hoist the cup [ala Hawks 2013 & 2015]

Get there. See what happens. True contenders are revealed in September, not before.

When Moose starts posting optimistic essays not involving Simmo something amazing is bound to happen.

In all seriousness Moose, great post. Prime example would be the Doggies - they reached September looking absolutely cooked and battered in 7th, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[Dylan82]

Not unless we can find a system that works at the MCG.

2 from 7 during the Simpson era unfortunately does not bode well.

 

[Altum Volantes]

Fremantle are a better chance than us.

There. I said it.

 

[Godfather32]

Fremantle are a better chance than us.

There. I said it.

At least they play like they want to be out there

 

[fidstar]

I think it's time...

Nic Nat activate!

 

[Carbine Chaos]

I think it's time...

Nic Nat activate!

Form of an ice menorah!

 

[EagleEgo]

No.

Reasons:
1. Not physical enough - too soft.
2. Not focus in winning
3. Lack leadership.
4. Not many goal kickers - rely too much on Kennedy.
5. We have fast players who can run but the attributes were not promoted - eg Yeo, Sheppard, Jetta.
6. Style of play not suitable for knock out finals - need to know how to win man up/contested football.

 

[ziad]

No.

Reasons:
1. Not physical enough - too soft.
2. Not focus in winning
3. Lack leadership.
4. Not many goal kickers - rely too much on Kennedy.
5. We have fast players who can run but the attributes were not promoted - eg Yeo, Sheppard, Jetta.
6. Style of play not suitable for knock out finals - need to know how to win man up/contested football.

This has been evident in our recent wins as well.

We only have one bull in the midfield and he is out all season. Soft minnows are lost and Priddis is too old to be the pack man to them.
We also don't have a CHF - Jack is too small and lacks presence - he works hard and is ok as a third tall

 

[greatwhiteshark]

This has been evident in our recent wins as well.

We only have one bull in the midfield and he is out all season. Soft minnows are lost and Priddis is too old to be the pack man to them.
We also don't have a CHF - Jack is too small and lacks presence - he works hard and is ok as a third tall

If we get Lycett back then Vardy can play CHF.
I agree that Priddis best is behind him now but they won't move him on.
How we use Mitchell is what is doing my head in, he was the Hawks link man. Every time they got the ball they went through him to set up their attacking moves. He comes to us and instead of utilising him in this manner we ask him to fit in to our crap style of play which does not suit him.
Now of course it can't be just about him but surely there was a reason we wanted him, we wanted him to come in and show us how to play the right way. Either Simpson is not listening to Mitchell or the players really are that stupid to think they know best.

 

[Eagleboy68]

This has been evident in our recent wins as well.

We only have one bull in the midfield and he is out all season. Soft minnows are lost and Priddis is too old to be the pack man to them.
We also don't have a CHF - Jack is too small and lacks presence - he works hard and is ok as a third tall

Yes this is correct.
Darling would be a great third tall forward.
Applying pressure, reading the play, crumbing.
We've seen some great supply from darling out of congestion like last week dribbling to a team mate for a goal.
He would be our x factor up forward if we had a genuine second tall option.

Maybe Vardy is that player once nicnat and Lycett return.

 

[Godfather32]

With all the home games coming up we'll make the finals and then get smashed by the first team we come up against that has a half decent midfield. We've got the same problem we've had for the last few years, we've got close to the worst midfield in the league, it's just full of slow, one dimensional players.

 

[Chris_6678]

The fact this is a very even season i think we can snag it. We do have some problems but we do need to start phasing out a few players during the year. We really need a proper ruck setup as it is killing the continuity and chemistry with our mids when we are chopping and changing between a ruck setup. Lycett in when he is a 100% ready to go along with Vardy we should have a better ruck setup going.

By years end we need to see:

Lecra out Willie in - Lecra is just to slow and his kicking for goal just isn't the same.

Butler out - Nelson in. Nelson has pace and goes hard at it. I can see why we play Butler as he is that cool head down back but he gets caught out way to much.

Wellingham Dropped for Cole - Cole might not be ready but lets give the kid a go. Wellingham still has the talent and the pace but he one of a few players that are just being lazy.

Jetta - He needs to keep playing like the way he did on the weekend in the WAFL and if he can bring that into our team we will be so much better for it. We lacked some pace on the weekend and he has it.

Continued development of Barrass, Sheed, Duggan, Nelson, Mutimer. Bring in Partington, Cole , Lamb & Venebles by years end.

I would like to see this team up and running by the pointy end of the year.

Nelson Barrass Shep
Hurn Gov Mitchell

Jetta Sheed Gaff

Lamb Darling Mutimer
Cripps JK Rioli

Lycett Shuey Duggan

B: Vardy Priddis Partington Wellingham

Depth: Lecra, Hill, Masten, Schofield, Emac.

 

[MWPP]

The fact this is a very even season i think we can snag it. We do have some problems but we do need to start phasing out a few players during the year. We really need a proper ruck setup as it is killing the continuity and chemistry with our mids when we are chopping and changing between a ruck setup. Lycett in when he is a 100% ready to go along with Vardy we should have a better ruck setup going.

By years end we need to see:

Lecra out Willie in - Lecra is just to slow and his kicking for goal just isn't the same.

Butler out - Nelson in. Nelson has pace and goes hard at it. I can see why we play Butler as he is that cool head down back but he gets caught out way to much.

Wellingham Dropped for Cole - Cole might not be ready but lets give the kid a go. Wellingham still has the talent and the pace but he one of a few players that are just being lazy.

Jetta - He needs to keep playing like the way he did on the weekend in the WAFL and if he can bring that into our team we will be so much better for it. We lacked some pace on the weekend and he has it.

Continued development of Barrass, Sheed, Duggan, Nelson, Mutimer. Bring in Partington, Cole , Lamb & Venebles by years end.

I would like to see this team up and running by the pointy end of the year.

Nelson Barrass Shep
Hurn Gov Mitchell

Jetta Sheed Gaff

Lamb Darling Mutimer
Cripps JK Rioli

Lycett Shuey Duggan

B: Vardy Priddis Partington Wellingham

Depth: Lecra, Hill, Masten, Schofield, Emac.

Harsh on Masten (who is actually one of our few players to have improved this year) but don't mind some of your other suggestions

 

[Byron_Clanger]

No, we are the team that's a cut below the premiership favourites. You only have to look at the Hawthorn and Essendon games to see ethat

 

[ziad]

If we get Lycett back then Vardy can play CHF.
I agree that Priddis best is behind him now but they won't move him on.
How we use Mitchell is what is doing my head in, he was the Hawks link man. Every time they got the ball they went through him to set up their attacking moves. He comes to us and instead of utilising him in this manner we ask him to fit in to our crap style of play which does not suit him.
Now of course it can't be just about him but surely there was a reason we wanted him, we wanted him to come in and show us how to play the right way. Either Simpson is not listening to Mitchell or the players really are that stupid to think they know best.

I am finding all this optimism distressing
I think the players are dumb.
Vardy is an interesting pick up I must say.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

HA HA Ha Ha Ha........

 

[MWPP]

No, we are the team that's a cut below the premiership favourites. You only have to look at the Hawthorn and Essendon games to see that

Normally I'd agree, but given the evenness of this season/ other teams' shortcomings, we're every chance

 

[Chris_6678]

So many teams in the top 8 are having troubles.

Crows played terrible v Melbourne and North.

GWS are just scraping in and with the injuries they keep coping it will catch up to them.

Bullies are not playing as well as last year and seem to be all over the shop.

Saints good one week crap the next.

Port have been flat trackers like WCE.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Yes.

1. We will make top 8, which means we're a chance.
2. No team is travelling so well that it has me scratching my head wondering "how will we beat them?".
3. 5 of top 8 (currently) are non-vic sides + Geelong, who don't play home games at the G. Good likelihood we won't lose home ground advantage playing a final at the G (just need to have a plan B to play the G, which I'd like to think Simpson has finally realised that too).
4. We are still able to strengthen our side with the addition of Lycett.
5. We have the wildcard of NN for finals. He's invaluable even if he lacks match fitness as he can have a bigger impact with 7-8 touches than some of our midfielders can with 25 (plus his ruck work doesn't rely on fitness).

 

[Dusky]

I hear some people talk about how we are serious contenders for the flag.
But are we really?

 

[88mph]

No.

Close thread.

 

[MWPP]

Yes.

1. We will make top 8, which means we're a chance.
2. No team is travelling so well that it has me scratching my head wondering "how will we beat them?".
3. 5 of top 8 (currently) are non-vic sides + Geelong, who don't play home games at the G. Good likelihood we won't lose home ground advantage playing a final at the G (just need to have a plan B to play the G, which I'd like to think Simpson has finally realised that too).
4. We are still able to strengthen our side with the addition of Lycett.
5. We have the wildcard of NN for finals. He's invaluable even if he lacks match fitness as he can have a bigger impact with 7-8 touches than some of our midfielders can with 25 (plus his ruck work doesn't rely on fitness).

Agree with all of the above
Could even add to 3. and point out that our records at the home grounds of 4 of the other 5 top 6 teams is excellent
(we won't talk about our record at Skilled ....but Adelaide Oval x2 /Spotless really are homes away from home)
This year of all years, our record in Victoria will be pretty irrelevant

 

[ChampRevesby]

Yes.

1. We will make top 8, which means we're a chance.
2. No team is travelling so well that it has me scratching my head wondering "how will we beat them?".
3. 5 of top 8 (currently) are non-vic sides + Geelong, who don't play home games at the G. Good likelihood we won't lose home ground advantage playing a final at the G (just need to have a plan B to play the G, which I'd like to think Simpson has finally realised that too).
4. We are still able to strengthen our side with the addition of Lycett.
5. We have the wildcard of NN for finals. He's invaluable even if he lacks match fitness as he can have a bigger impact with 7-8 touches than some of our midfielders can with 25 (plus his ruck work doesn't rely on fitness).

If we can get NN in there for the finals and we have blooded the likes of Parto/Venables to replace Redden/Priddis then we are a huge chance to shock the comp. Getting Willie in there would be huge too.

 

[The Dodger]

Sorry for the long post.

We are 6 - 3 and near the top with a list that wont cut it in Melbourne.

Interestingly the other teams that are 6 -3 and having an up and down year in Geelong & Fremantle have a lot of young players getting games for them as well as maintaining our not too bad record.

Geelong have had some mares recently but they have 6 players getting regular games with under 20 games experience. I think that can be expected. They have moved elder statesman on and while getting Dangerfield is a massive boost the Crows are doing arguably better without him so I don't think it is as easy as saying oh well they got Dangerfield = contending again. We had 2 and McInnes is getting game because we have been smashed with injury in 1 position so badly he would be replaced by 3 - 4 guys that are well experienced if injury or borderline team selection each week (Giles) permitted.

So when you have a mature side age wise and are putting in performances like that you are left scratching your head. It cant be Mutimer's or McInnes' fault.
There is too much middling mature talent getting games at the moment under the guise of "we are contending". Lecras, Priddis, Redden, Masten, Wellingham, Butler & Hurn have all been very up and down where their best is good enough but their worst (on display just as often) is soul crushing to the team as leaders and mature players. Butler is arguably in the side waiting for Nelson to get back. But the others seem incapable of having a spell in the 2's or just plain rested by the MC to get fresh. Perhaps Priddis would be served by a month off to refresh and get back to his 2015 who knows? We will never find out as as long as his legs haven't fallen off he will be selected despite being a leader on the field and offering no leadership.

Another interesting thing regarding team selection is that Simpson in the post game presser said that when the team tried to respond it went even harder at the ball and got found out on the outside saying they didn't have any balance about their game. I would argue the team selection has geared us that way as it is very unbalanced towards inside mids. So when Redden, Priddis, Mitchell, Sheed, Masten (included due to his contested figures yesterday) Mutimer & Shuey want to respond they go the ball. What else is that pack going to do? Aside from Shuey are any of that group going to chase down anyone or close down space or outside run? A contested situation is a 50/50 at best without NN you cant stop that the difference is when another team get it on the outside they find transition from inside to outside very smooth as pace and over committed to the contest ball winners on our part make it easy.
You pick a ball winning first team and then are surprised that they respond to a situation by trying to win the ball. We have been killed on the spread forever and a day playing this team and will continue to be. There is no balance. Gaff is "outside" and he is hardly putting in the effort to make defensive plays or close down space. He by extension of the ball winning team selection is skirting the packs asking for hands as we are geared that way. It gets ugly for us as soon as the opposition can get on the outside of us and that is based on that lack of balance. Also to me, no a half arsed Jetta is not the answer for that balance.

To me its a all or nothing approach with a one dimensional mature team. It is going to come off more than it wont but when it really matters its going to be an issue. Particularly due to the above being a wasted offensive game plan for the MCG.

TLDR - Slow ball winners will try and win ball and will be beaten by pace and quick ball movement.

 

[Godfather32]

Good to see the media applying the blow torch to the team, everything I'm reading this morning is about Mummy's boys and how soft we are, about time.