The Rebuild

[Geoff]

What's everyone's expectations and what really does a rebuild mean? Lyon has mentioned a sign off on a 4 year program, what are the key markers over that 4 year period? At the end of the 4 years is there premiership expectations or just a regular finals contender?

Personally I'm not expecting much until the end of 2018 which is half way through the 4 year period. I also feel 4 years maybe a little optimistic. What's everyone's feelings? Is 4 years a doable period to be back up there?


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Unique Name]

I think most of us are confident in the green, the rebuild is about filling in the gaps. Whether that be developing the kids we already have, drafting in more kids or trading in established players. We need more skill and we need more goal scorers.

Hughes - Hamling - Logue
Weller - A Pearce - Ryan/Nyhuis
B Hill - Blakely - S Hill
Walters - Cox - Bennell
McCarthy - Tabs/Ape - Deluca/Grey

Darcy - Fyfe - Neale

Tucker - Langdon - Crozier - Sherro

Then the important part, Ross needs to run a gameplan that balances attack and defence. Then we need to pump games into them as a team until they know what each other are going to do without thinking.

 

[theGav56]

This is a great question, and very difficult to answer. The main problem for me is that a couple of our key areas of need are potentially addressed by players that are long term injured. Add A Pearce, Bennel and Apeness to our best 22 and I am confident in a rapid transition.

 

[blue shark]

What's everyone's expectations and what really does a rebuild mean? Lyon has mentioned a sign off on a 4 year program, what are the key markers over that 4 year period? At the end of the 4 years is there premiership expectations or just a regular finals contender?

Personally I'm not expecting much until the end of 2018 which is half way through the 4 year period. I also feel 4 years maybe a little optimistic. What's everyone's feelings? Is 4 years a doable period to be back up there?


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Off season we will need another year like 2016, we have plenty of holes to fix and players injured or retiring.
We won't be going anywhere though unless the forward line rapidly improves, and it gets harder every year
as you hopefully rise up the ladder, so other avenues are a key, or better rehabilitation, programs?
Ross can coach, put teams into GF's, recruiting, trades, has previously been our Achilles, with first round
picks?
This weekend Darling will kick his 250th goal, what might have been if he was selected by us instead?

 

[M_rash]

What's everyone's expectations and what really does a rebuild mean? Lyon has mentioned a sign off on a 4 year program, what are the key markers over that 4 year period? At the end of the 4 years is there premiership expectations or just a regular finals contender?

Personally I'm not expecting much until the end of 2018 which is half way through the 4 year period. I also feel 4 years maybe a little optimistic. What's everyone's feelings? Is 4 years a doable period to be back up there?


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

I vividly remember Ross stating that there would be "no excuses" not to have won a flag by the end of his contract extension. But then 2016 happened so not sure that is still the aim or not. The response was then, "well now we just accelerate our plan and play the kids". I hope it's flag, or at least genuine contenders, or bust for Ross. That would be 9 years at the helm and our players should be peaking around then. It'll all be about who have adapted to whatever the new rage in game plan is by then.

 

[Joao]

Step 1: Nail our first round picks. We haven't for some time and we will need the talent to have a crack.

I think it will take all of the 4 years (or more). I think we will get glimpses in 2018 and especially 2019, but we will be inconsistent. 2020 will be the year I think we start to look the goods. Might take one or two more to actually get near or to a GF, but I have faith.

By 2020 you would expect somewhere around 5-11 of the current best 22 to be different to what it is today. That's a lot of water to go under the bridge.

No way anyone can predict the actual timeline. As long as there is improvement, we keep trying to play through the corridor and we stop getting belted (10goals+ semi-regularly) by around 2019 I am happy. If the list is up to it, Ross will have us purring come 2020+

 

[go_the_dockers]

I think most of us are confident in the green, the rebuild is about filling in the gaps. Whether that be developing the kids we already have, drafting in more kids or trading in established players. We need more skill and we need more goal scorers.

Hughes - Hamling - Logue
Weller - A Pearce - Ryan/Nyhuis
B Hill - Blakely - S Hill
Walters - Cox - Bennell
McCarthy - ????? - Deluca/Grey

Darcy - Fyfe - Neale

Tucker - Langdon - Crozier - Carter

Then the important part, Ross needs to run a gameplan that balances attack and defence. Then we need to pump games into them as a team until they know what each other are going to do without thinking.

The forward ruck is the massive whole in our list, and they are hard to find especially the good ones. I would not mind if we picked up a B Grader who can play this role fairly well e.g. Hale for the Hawks assuming we can not get Lobb.

Also, we have Carter lined up in next years draft and I think he should be able to make an immediate impact as a forward pocket.

Looking at that team I wonder why we are playing so poorly, I get the feeling if we can get everyone fit with a bit more experience, get 1 more A Graders we will be a top 4 side by 2019 or 2020.

I would be happy to use every 1st round pick between 2018 and 2020 if we could add Wilson, Conigilio and Lobb. Coniglio will be a FA, but Wilson and Lobb will be very expensive. That would give us 2020 to 2023 to win a premiership.

Wilson- Hamling - Logue
Weller - A Pearce - Ryan
B Hill - Blakely - S Hill
Walters - Cox - Bennell
McCarthy - Lobb - Coniglio

Darcy - Fyfe - Neale

Tucker - Langdon - Crozier - Carter - Hughes -Nyhuis - Deluca/Grey

 

[_F7_]

Step 1: Nail our first round picks. We haven't for some time and we will need the talent to have a crack.

I think it will take all of the 4 years (or more). I think we will get glimpses in 2018 and especially 2019, but we will be inconsistent. 2020 will be the year I think we start to look the goods. Might take one or two more to actually get near or to a GF, but I have faith.

By 2020 you would expect somewhere around 5-11 of the current best 22 to be different to what it is today. That's a lot of water to go under the bridge.

No way anyone can predict the actual timeline. As long as there is improvement, we keep trying to play through the corridor and we stop getting belted (10goals+ semi-regularly) by around 2019 I am happy. If the list is up to it, Ross will have us purring come 2020+

This is spot on. I think we're already seeing strong glimpses (a lot more than I would have expected year 1/2 of rebuild). Next year (with a bit of luck re. Bennell, A.Pearce etc.) it should start clicking. 2019 if all is going well I see that as a year we could have a cheeky dip based largely on our Hills. Fyfes etc desperate for success and the team riding a wave of youthful confidence. But you're right, 2020 should be when things get serious, especially if say Hogan or Lobb are tempted home.

Right now it's just great watching it all unfold. While I have enjoyed the beltings about as much as plucking my nostril hairs, the closer losses and wins have been perfect. Entertainingly competitive yet satisfyingly experimental.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

The forward ruck is the massive whole in our list, and they are hard to find especially the good ones. I would not mind if we picked up a B Grader who can play this role fairly well e.g. Hale for the Hawks assuming we can not get Lobb.

Also, we have Carter lined up in next years draft and I think he should be able to make an immediate impact as a forward pocket.

Looking at that team I wonder why we are playing so poorly, I get the feeling if we can get everyone fit with a bit more experience, get 1 more A Graders we will be a top 4 side by 2019 or 2020.

I would be happy to use every 1st round pick between 2018 and 2020 if we could add Wilson, Conigilio and Lobb. Coniglio will be a FA, but Wilson and Lobb will be very expensive. That would give us 2020 to 2023 to win a premiership.

Wilson- Hamling - Logue
Weller - A Pearce - Ryan
B Hill - Blakely - S Hill
Walters - Cox - Bennell
McCarthy - Lobb - Coniglio

Darcy - Fyfe - Neale

Tucker - Langdon - Crozier - Carter - Hughes -Nyhuis - Deluca/Grey

While i love the optimism in picking up Coniglio, why is he in the forward pocket?

 

[Steinfreo]

We have another small round of retirements coming up in Johnno, Sandi and Mundy. It will be interesting to see how we go without them. Im not sold on Grey or Ryan. Hughes and Tucker need to take steps but look ok. Weller needs to take another step soon (hes to talented to be at his current output but gameplan may not be working for him). Crozier and Sherro look like busts but maybe good back up. I hope Cox ends up as our McGovern maybe, Tabs and Kersten are busts. McCarthy needs to sort his s**t out to. There is more uncertainty that RTB lets on with the list. Some of the things first and second year players are doing around the league are just as impressive as ours, and a lot of our wins are getting etched out by the Vets from our last tilt.

 

[go_the_dockers]

While i love the optimism in picking up Coniglio, why is he in the forward pocket?

I couldn't work out where to put him. He will swap into the midfield

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I couldn't work out where to put him. He will swap into the midfield

Haha ok, even more love then for the Blakely respect in pushing Coniglio to the pocket haha

 

[go_the_dockers]

Haha ok, even more love then for the Blakely respect in pushing Coniglio to the pocket haha

Fyfe is a handy forward pocket as well, as is Carter.

Blakely could play at HBF making space for Coniglio. We would have the midfield depth to really hurt sides, and then if Blakely had played at HBF all game, and Fyfe forward for large chunks we could through them into the midfield in the last quarter when other teams are tired .

From what I can see, 2020 to 2022 we are a good chance of a flag with us maybe being an outside chance in 2019 and 2023.

 

[blue shark]

We have another small round of retirements coming up in Johnno, Sandi and Mundy. It will be interesting to see how we go without them. Im not sold on Grey or Ryan. Hughes and Tucker need to take steps but look ok. Weller needs to take another step soon (hes to talented to be at his current output but gameplan may not be working for him). Crozier and Sherro look like busts but maybe good back up. I hope Cox ends up as our McGovern maybe, Tabs and Kersten are busts. McCarthy needs to sort his s**t out to. There is more uncertainty that RTB lets on with the list. Some of the things first and second year players are doing around the league are just as impressive as ours, and a lot of our wins are getting etched out by the Vets from our last tilt.

If you just look at the retirements, maybe trades, guys not getting a game, wont get one, the natural turnover of
players is substantial.
The only standout at Peel is Nyhius, its looking like Collins will be moved on?
The rookies have done enough to suggest upgrading, but we probably need to find some plug and play types.

 

[_F7_]

We have another small round of retirements coming up in Johnno, Sandi and Mundy. It will be interesting to see how we go without them. Im not sold on Grey or Ryan. Hughes and Tucker need to take steps but look ok. Weller needs to take another step soon (hes to talented to be at his current output but gameplan may not be working for him). Crozier and Sherro look like busts but maybe good back up. I hope Cox ends up as our McGovern maybe, Tabs and Kersten are busts. McCarthy needs to sort his s**t out to. There is more uncertainty that RTB lets on with the list. Some of the things first and second year players are doing around the league are just as impressive as ours, and a lot of our wins are getting etched out by the Vets from our last tilt.

This is quite brutal but possibly on the money. I disagree with Ryan, he looks good to me. Relaxed, pinpoint kicks at times. Maybe needs to get involved more but he's played like 4 games. Grey... Hmmm.. Gotta love the crazy eye but I'd prefer more scoring input. He is one of those players that creates scoring opportunities for others though so I like him. Cox looks really good (minus that ball drop!), Tabs, Kersten and McCarthy, I hoped they'd be Neapolitan ice cream but looks like someone's scooped out the chocolate and strawberry atm.

I know what you mean but I wouldn't call it uncertainty, at least not in a bad way. We're exploring the list, you're supposed to expose weaknesses.

 

[Steinfreo]

This is quite brutal but possibly on the money. I disagree with Ryan, he looks good to me. Relaxed, pinpoint kicks at times. Maybe needs to get involved more but he's played like 4 games. Grey... Hmmm.. Gotta love the crazy eye but I'd prefer more scoring input. He is one of those players that creates scoring opportunities for others though so I like him. Cox looks really good (minus that ball drop!), Tabs, Kersten and McCarthy, I hoped they'd be Neapolitan ice cream but looks like someone's scooped out the chocolate and strawberry atm.

I know what you mean but I wouldn't call it uncertainty, at least not in a bad way. We're exploring the list, you're supposed to expose weaknesses.

Yeah you are right Ive been pretty negative about our list, but I honestly wouldnt mind a two year 'tank'. Our trash years are the reason we made 2013 Granny. The list was all there (missus a few nice top ups) for Ross to lead, I want to give him an even better list to lead in 2020+.

 

[Kenny_01]

I think Ryan will end up being a solid AFL player. He has looked the goods to me. Hasn't had a major impact yet but shows courage, is gaining confidence in peeling off his man to intercept, can defend reasonably well and most importantly is an awesome kick. In his 4 games I only recall one kick that nearly got intercepted, but the rest have been as safe as houses. As he gains confidence, he will hopefully bring some more attacking flair. Same thing goes for Logue, he is defending his man reasonably well but he needs to learn his kicking is a weapon so should be kicking as much as possible - not looking to handpass off.

Also I am quite confident Mitch McGovern will be at Freo next year so I here's hoping we can put him in our long term view.

 

[_F7_]

Yeah you are right Ive been pretty negative about our list, but I honestly wouldnt mind a two year 'tank'. Our trash years are the reason we made 2013 Granny. The list was all there (missus a few nice top ups) for Ross to lead, I want to give him an even better list to lead in 2020+.

Yeah I'm with you on that, it's just that when you see what happened the last two weeks in particular you start thinking that maybe 2017 is our last 'tank' year. Blakely, Cox, Darcy, Hughes, Weller - these guys have really stepped up. And not just in a 'doing-well-for-young-guys' way (like maybe Logue, Ryan etc). I think at times they're actually leading the way in effort and execution. They're making us better (unlike last year really). And if they keep it up, I think we'll soon iron out the 10+ goal losses and make it harder to play for picks.

My hunch is we'll use our 2017 ladder position to draft in some great talent though handy picks this year, then work on ladder climbing in 2018 while using the trade table to fill the bigger gaps as we identify them. We've got from now until 2019 to get in the ear of Lobb &/or Hogan etc (continue the WA-player attraction technique, which is a much more realistic KPF trade strategy than what we've attempted previously). And I think that will set Ross up for a real solid list in 2020.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I can understand the pessimism on the list and its totally within reason. Winning flags is not easy, you cant look "really good" you have to literally be the best across a range of key areas (coaching, player development, player talent). I'm quite bullish on us being on the right path however. I like the attacking through the middle plan we've used this year. Yes, it leads to more turnovers, but when we get it right we are ripping sides apart. How many quarters have we had this year were we have piled on 6 odd goals to 1. The experience and understanding isnt there yet but I think there are signs that we are getting closer.

Also, I would argue all our young players bar McCarthy and Tabs (Kersten doesnt count) have improved out of sight this year (look at the development of Hughes, Grey, Weller and especially Blakely), and all our draftee's have shown they could be at least good role players (Ryan) or even stars (Cox and Darcy look like something special, I think the jury is still out on Logue).

Having said all this, there is a lot that has to go right from here on in to even be in with a shot. The forward is still dysfunctional and needs work and all those improving young players could fall off a cliff or just not develop. To be in with a shot we would also realistically need A Pearce and Bennell to get on the park and live up to expectations.

TLDR: I think we are on the right path, lots of water to go under the bridge for that path to lead anywhere

 

[Outshined]

This is a great question, and very difficult to answer. The main problem for me is that a couple of our key areas of need are potentially addressed by players that are long term injured. Add A Pearce, Bennel and Apeness to our best 22 and I am confident in a rapid transition.

Yeh a fair bit hinges on those 3. If Pearce can't get over the broken leg, we'll need to go back in for a KPD, same as Apeness for the ruck/forward position. Position-wise, Bennell's a bit less of a need but losing a certified Rolls Royce for only a handful of games (or worse) would be disastrous.

Hamling was a great trade in, McCarthy has the potential to be. We've seemingly picked up a couple of gems in Darcy and Cox recently, so it also really comes down to the next two seasons' draft/trading periods. Nail it and we'll be well set for another tilt.

 

[Wally Walpamur]

I expect our list to be in a similar position to that of Melbourne and St Kilda from 2019 on, where the majority of the list is in the 25-29 age range with average games ~100. Playing a final in 2018 would be great experience, too.

 

[go_the_dockers]

By the way, next year and 2019 we should be front loading contracts and getting as close to possible to 95% of the Salary cap.

This will allow us to load up a few big name recruits at the end of 2019.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

You can't turn over the list in one off-season.

This year will be about getting rid of another 5-6 older players plus those who've not made the grade, and then next year will be saying goodbye a few more.

If we're serious about it then next year should start to see the upswing to mid table, and 2019 should be when we're back in genuine finals contention. That's absolutely a do-able time frame given the quality we have currently in the 23-26 year age bracket.

 

[Joao]

You can't turn over the list in one off-season.

This year will be about getting rid of another 5-6 older players plus those who've not made the grade, and then next year will be saying goodbye a few more.

If we're serious about it then next year should start to see the upswing to mid table, and 2019 should be when we're back in genuine finals contention. That's absolutely a do-able time frame given the quality we have currently in the 23-26 year age bracket.

I would agree with that time-frame if it weren't for what Steinfreo points out with some of the older players. Sandi, Mundy, Johnson and Spurr will probably all be gone (or very close to) in 2019. That is a lot of ability and leadership we have to replace. Ideally we want to spread that out a bit. Not only that but we aren't fixing the KPF this summer so that is not likely to be much better next year. See Collingwood for an example of a team with a great midfield and no forwardline.

I think next year is down again (bottom 6) and 2019 we will shift to the middle of the pack again. Hopefully with a shiny new top 5-10 pick KPF and another gun mid in the making.

 

[_F7_]

I would agree with that time-frame if it weren't for what Steinfreo points out with some of the older players. Sandi, Mundy, Johnson and Spurr will probably all be gone (or very close to) in 2019. That is a lot of ability and leadership we have to replace. Ideally we want to spread that out a bit. Not only that but we aren't fixing the KPF this summer so that is not likely to be much better next year. See Collingwood for an example of a team with a great midfield and no forwardline.

I think next year is down again (bottom 6) and 2019 we will shift to the middle of the pack again. Hopefully with a shiny new top 5-10 pick KPF and another gun mid in the making.

But but but... sandi, spurr and mundy (maybe even johnson) will be playing 2018. It's 2019 they'll likely be gone. Are you saying we stay bottom six with them around, then rise to mid table once they retire?

I think the team's 2017 end of season trip will be to Kathmandu. Cos we're going ladder climbing next year.