Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[Big_Luch]

Just to confirm that is a rumour and not a BF trade wish list?

 

[ShanDog]

I stopped reading at offering Rockcliff a 2 year deal at $1mill a year.

It's a lot, but we have money to burn and it's only two years. Easily managed in theory.

 

[Keyza]

It's a lot, but we have money to burn and it's only two years. Easily managed in theory.

I know we have heaps of room in our salary cap but to have him our highest paid player would not sit well with many people.

 

[Arr0w]

It's a lot, but we have money to burn and it's only two years. Easily managed in theory.

Over 3 years, average of $800K, think that is reasonable for a player of Rocky's football quality

 

[ParapMarkets]

Correct. AFL said they would look into it....nothing comes of it.

Only knock on the proposal is if AFL considers options as part of FA compo formula. For some reason I recall reading about that in an article somewhere.

Yeah, I can't see the AFL looking too closely at something that would gift pick 2 to a Qld club.

 

[BlueTongue]

Looks very sound to me. Logic stacks up very well.

Really? I don't care if this came from SOS himself, it looks so volatile it's a 'House of Cards' more than a realistic Blueprint.
One thing goes wrong and the entire thing collapses.

I could list a whole bunch of things (I have at least 4 legit concerns with #1 alone) but I can't be bothered. Re-read and make your own lists.

If it came to fruition, then well and good but like I said, it's a House of Cards.

 

[Keyza]

Over 3 years, average of $800K, think that is reasonable for a player of Rocky's football quality

Imagine what Docherty will be worth in his next contract.

 

[therubbernub]

It's a lot, but we have money to burn and it's only two years. Easily managed in theory.

Exactly. And my I add, no one is jumping up and down about a salary dump to get kelly, which may be potentially an even bigger waste of money. The bottom line is , if splashing some cash can substitute for picks then we use it to our advantage. Its the only one we have got (hopefully changing very soon)

 

[Arr0w]

Imagine what Docherty will be worth in his next contract.

$12.45 Million, more than enough to go around

 

[PP34]

Over 3 years, average of $800K, think that is reasonable for a player of Rocky's football quality

People really underrate Rockliff. Definitely does seem like a bit of a dickhead but he can play.

Shoulder injury wrote off a fair bit of this year, never looked the same after doing it and the Lions totally changed his role. He's a tackling machine and loves the hard stuff.

 

[Quazza]

Have to trust the inner sanctum 're Rockliff. Fagan and Bolton are very tight, so the dialogue would be honest and genuine between the pair.

.

on that, worth noting that Fagan has spoken glowingly about Rockliff all year

 

[AB_Blue]

He's 27 now. Personally can't see it happening.

Just the age bracket we are lacking in

 

[Arr0w]

Really? I don't care if this came from SOS himself, it looks so volatile it's a 'House of Cards' more than a realistic Blueprint.
One thing goes wrong and the entire thing collapses.

I could list a whole bunch of things (I have at least 4 legit concerns with #1 alone) but I can't be bothered. Re-read and make your own lists.

If it came to fruition, then well and good but like I said, it's a House of Cards.

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

 

[therubbernub]

Really? I don't care if this came from SOS himself, it looks so volatile it's a 'House of Cards' more than a realistic Blueprint.
One thing goes wrong and the entire thing collapses.

I could list a whole bunch of things (I have at least 4 legit concerns with #1 alone) but I can't be bothered. Re-read and make your own lists.

If it came to fruition, then well and good but like I said, it's a House of Cards.

I tend to think it is a nice story, plausible, but still a story. But the fact that it is a house of cards doesnt make it unlikely. In fact I think it is these sorts of scenarios that makes SOS and other recruiters worth their salary- this is the sort of thing they engineer to make sure that everyone is getting what they want. Better to plan for a trade ahead of time and work your way into a good position, than wait for the chips to fall and be blindsided and make panicked errors. Betty certainly has done his homework and given us plenty to mull over. Something like a thousand monkeys and a thousand typewriters.... putting us to work, to work out the flaws

 

[1981]

Whose Ed Kennedy?

 

[Arr0w]

People really underrate Rockliff. Definitely does seem like a bit of a dickhead but he can play.

Shoulder injury wrote off a fair bit of this year, never looked the same after doing it and the Lions totally changed his role. He's a tackling machine and loves the hard stuff.

And is extremely dangerous as a forward

 

[katmanblue]

Just not confident of getting Rockliff

$1m per year? He'll come. No one else will offer that.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

I don't think we will be picking him up.

Heard he keeps disappearing anyway.

 

[Yubby]

Posted in Blue Rumour thread and realise credibility is zero as a newb but I am very confident in the source:

Proposal is:

1. Carlton trade Bryce Gibbs to Crows for the pick they get for Lever (must be below 12). Most likely Dees pick 10.

Why? - best we will get and the view is Bryce asking to leave again and coming back isn't good for the group. Also part of a wider deal. Problem is if Pies get Lever for pick 6 Crows won't want to give this up without something back. However, we believe Lever wants the Dees.

2. Carlton acquire Rockliff for 2 years at $2m with an option for a third year at $400k. Because the option is conditional the AFL bases compensation on a guaranteed two years - so $1m per year figure. This triggers band 1 compensation for the Lions so they get pick 2. Other suitors are offering Rockliff max $700k, which is not enough to trigger band 1.

3. Carlton trades pick 3, pick 10 (or thereabouts - Crows been told must be pick below 12) from Bryce Gibbs and our third round pick for pick 1, pick 18 and Schache. Lions may also be interested in a player such as Byrne to sweeten the deal.

Why do this trade - helps with Kelly (will explain below), plus gets Rockliff in for support and gets Schache at a discount. Schache is viewed as suffering from being away from family and the belief is he can become a 40+ goal a year FF in Victoria. Lions don't want Rayner but the Suns rate him so won't slip to us at 3. GWS want him and want pick 1 to make sure they get him. Lions value Dow more highly so going from pick 1 to 2 is fine by them. Effectively swapping Schache and 18 for pick 10 and 38. Lions rate the top 10 highly so believe they can add another good mid at 10 (plus have Ports pick - view is 3 good mids to add to the mix).

We will not get Lynch from Gold Coast next year. He will most likely sign with them depending on the new coach and how things look in June next year. Pies have tabled a $1.5m 5 year deal and his family are massive Pie fans but looks more likely to stay at GC. Will not play for Carlton forget it. So we see Schache as a hedge against McKay not coming on. The bank is at least one of those two will become a gun.

4. Carlton trade pick 1 and pick 18 for Kelly, Kennedy and a salary dump.

Why? GWS wants Rayner and will only let Kelly go if they are guaranteed Rayner. They value pick 1 very highly. Kelly wants us the only spanner is a large offer from Essendon, but very likely to knock this back. Our whole strategy hinges on Kelly going to us. We believe this is 75% likely. The salary dump is a huge issue for GWS and they need the cap relief.

NET RESULT -

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38

In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache

The age composition of our mids is lowered with Kelly/Kennedy and Rockliff a similar age to Gibbs. Schache is valuable insurance for a KPF.

We don't have a pick this year until the fourth round but will take 3 picks at the end of the draft and get some delisted free agents. With the investment in the last two drafts and the desire to trade heavily into the 2018 draft with 2019 picks, we don't see this as a huge issue. There is also scope for the Suns to offer up 2nd/3rd round picks for players.

This is the desired blueprint for the Blues and what SOS believes is realistic. There are other options (Stringer for 2018 2nd but dogs likely to say no even if we take a salary dump) and embracing trading Gibbs plus some others for top 40 picks.

Thanks for sharing the rumour. Looks like a fantastic deal for us but there's a few things that don't make sense to me. Would be amazing if true though! Keen for people to offer their thoughts on the below...

1st is that Rockliff is likely to get them the pick 2 irrespective of whether he goes to us or elsewhere so why would they think we're doing them any favours? If he goes to port its likely to be on the same money as what we promise.

2nd is that 1, 18 and Schache is worth 3985 points and 4, 10, 38 are worth 3894 points. This is valuing schache at 0 points and still leaves us with the better hand in that deal. All for an extra pick in the top 10 and a downgrade of pick 1 to 4 as well? Seems strange. Yes they still have pick 2 which in effect might still be the player they wanted with 1 but it means their 2nd player may not be the one they want. Seems a strange deal to me so we'd definitely have to give something good to sweeten it from a points perspective and to not get schache for nothing. If that's Byrne we're essentially saying Byrne = Schache.

3rd seems like we're relying on a few things out of our control... AFL giving pick 2 for compo for Rockliff, GWS desperate for pick 1 for Rayner and the Crows willing to give pick 10 for Gibbs. All likely but a lot of ifs and you'd think that everyone would need to agree to all the moving parts before you'd do any one section of those deals/trades. Would there be risk that we started the process eg Gibbs and Rockliff and then GWS change their mind etc?

I see the net being a bit different as well:

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38, Byrne
In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache, Salary Dump

Also you mentioned GC interested in players for 2nd/3rd round picks. What players of ours are they interested in?

 

[katmanblue]

Seems to good to be true we would win this trade massively

Everyone wins, thats the beauty of it. Everyone gets what they want (to a degree).

 

[HARKER]

Really? I don't care if this came from SOS himself, it looks so volatile it's a 'House of Cards' more than a realistic Blueprint.
One thing goes wrong and the entire thing collapses.

I could list a whole bunch of things (I have at least 4 legit concerns with #1 alone) but I can't be bothered. Re-read and make your own lists.

If it came to fruition, then well and good but like I said, it's a House of Cards.

Forget about your house of cards...............Throw your keys in the bowl and off we go.

No house of cards if planning and preparation is sound. Do you want anything less?

 

[katmanblue]

Great result for us but my first thoughts are that point 2 is more or less draft tampering and would make a mockery out of the system, I just can't see the afl letting us get away with it and don't think I feel comfortable about it either

Its really not. We are abiding by the rules.

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

I stopped reading at offering Rockcliff a 2 year deal at $1mill a year.

The section about Lynch would be correct

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Looks very sound to me. Logic stacks up very well.

What the hell?

Oh I get it, sarcasm

 

[ParapMarkets]

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

There is also the possibility that if we did get our hands on pick 1, we could possibly trade to the Saints for 7 & 8 if Kelly was off the table.