Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[BlueTongue]

Was thinking the same,

You two Kreuz's are a bit slow
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-discussion-thread-v.1173629/page-263#post-52425240

 

[The Flying Doormat]

If the trades go through exactly as posted how exactly do we show our gratitude for the juicy bluemour fruit? I say we sacrifice thylacine

That would make it the first species to be declared extinct twice.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

You two Kreuz's are a bit slow
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bluemour-discussion-thread-v.1173629/page-263#post-52425240

My bad, didn't read every page.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Quite the planned trade period.

What I'd like to know is how that was all taken down with pad and paper without the source noticing...

Was written on a white board at a Port Melbourne physio waiting room Shan....

 

[The Toad]

So by the looks of things we are again chasing every available player in the comp.
God I love trade time. [emoji106][emoji106]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LanceRomance]

It's a doozy of a rumour but very clever. The Trengrove thing the only hiccup but even if it was fake I'd send it to SOS as a blueprint.

Would Crows take 10 and steak knives?
Would Kelly join us?

The Rockliff offer would be a great bargaining chip but not sure what the AFL would think... considering we're Carlton they'll find a way to block it.

If the afl can give Brisbane FA compo rather than a priority pick I am sure they will jump at it.

 

[Azul]

Quite the planned trade period.

What I'd like to know is how that was all taken down with pad and paper without the source noticing...

Big rumour same day Stringer drank a coffee .

 

[djw1952]

I thought he said we were frontrunners at that particular stage. Not sure he said he was absolutely going to Carlton.

What he said was that if Kelly did leave GWS it would be to go to Carlton.........at that stage, like you said.

 

[djw1952]

I've read it very closely and I only need to use a bit of common sense to know it's a load of crap.

We are not going to offer a 28 year old $2M. The club has constantly pushed the ideal of getting in quality young players. Makes zero sense to chase that hard for a guy who will retire in 3-4 years.

Lions will not trade #1+#18 pretty much cancel out with #3+#10. But a contracted former #2 pick KPF in only his second year for pick #36? Yeah, sure

And how you conveniently know the plans of Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane and GWS all working to give us themost beneficial outcome...

Let alone the fact that you've ignored my question about Jones. Who were the 4 clubs that chased him and why would we tell them to get lost given we have a wealth of KPD all capable of playing his role next year? The club would be stupid to not at least entertain some offers.

Oh and GWS letting Patton go for pick #8 and #30 is an absolute joke.

And why would we completely forsake the draft when the club (especially Bolts) has said we will go to the draft again?

As the rest of us know, this is a rumour file...........so nothing is 100% but if you do not like "rumours" then do not jump on this site !!!

 

[Lawrence Angwin]

He STRIKES a lot of people as highly rated.

I like what you did there, but you missed a golden opportunity with the HIGHly rated.
Not too late for an edit.



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[teagueyubeauty]

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

Yep, If 1 & 2 happen the rest will happen and if it doesn't we have a strong hand in the draft and probably Kennedy on top.

Great outcome for Brisbane, 2/3/10/36/38. That's a very strong hand, though I do question like I have been with us who the hell is getting 95% of the cap up there?

Come on this morning and read about an unbelievable rumour and I have to go back 26 pages to find it. You guys seriously have no life!!

 

[Metalcrusher]

WOW .........

 

[Sheephead]

if anyone could be bothered going back over previous seasons' pre-draft postings - every year, madly convoluted, unmitigated garbage - what is it that compels people to make this shit up? are they disturbed, frustrated fantasy writers?

This. I don't post during the season but I'm like a bar fly end of season - love and thrive on trade period etc and it's quite easy if you take the time to read into posters, who's who and who's fairdinkum.

There are some absolute classic posters here (Ferris is a scream, Thy is just bitter and twisted, but would love to meet him and have a beer) and some like myself that purely live in hope. But to post sourced rumours that are fabrications, smacks of insecurity.

As soon as I read the first thread, I read 'take it to the bank'. Just saying, it was well written and rehearsed, but once I read the 'supporting' emails and rebuttals, I knew. Each year the same poster re-invents themselves.

 

[ESKIE]

I don't understand why people get so upset about a rumour...

 

[Jimmae]

Smells like smedts mark 2

Would much prefer horlin-smith instead of lang

vs

http://afl.com.au/news/2013-10-20/darcy-lang

So, no.

Posted in Blue Rumour thread and realise credibility is zero as a newb but I am very confident in the source:

Proposal is:

1. Carlton trade Bryce Gibbs to Crows for the pick they get for Lever (must be below 12). Most likely Dees pick 10.

Why? - best we will get and the view is Bryce asking to leave again and coming back isn't good for the group. Also part of a wider deal. Problem is if Pies get Lever for pick 6 Crows won't want to give this up without something back. However, we believe Lever wants the Dees.

2. Carlton acquire Rockliff for 2 years at $2m with an option for a third year at $400k. Because the option is conditional the AFL bases compensation on a guaranteed two years - so $1m per year figure. This triggers band 1 compensation for the Lions so they get pick 2. Other suitors are offering Rockliff max $700k, which is not enough to trigger band 1.

3. Carlton trades pick 3, pick 10 (or thereabouts - Crows been told must be pick below 12) from Bryce Gibbs and our third round pick for pick 1, pick 18 and Schache. Lions may also be interested in a player such as Byrne to sweeten the deal.

Why do this trade - helps with Kelly (will explain below), plus gets Rockliff in for support and gets Schache at a discount. Schache is viewed as suffering from being away from family and the belief is he can become a 40+ goal a year FF in Victoria. Lions don't want Rayner but the Suns rate him so won't slip to us at 3. GWS want him and want pick 1 to make sure they get him. Lions value Dow more highly so going from pick 1 to 2 is fine by them. Effectively swapping Schache and 18 for pick 10 and 38. Lions rate the top 10 highly so believe they can add another good mid at 10 (plus have Ports pick - view is 3 good mids to add to the mix).

We will not get Lynch from Gold Coast next year. He will most likely sign with them depending on the new coach and how things look in June next year. Pies have tabled a $1.5m 5 year deal and his family are massive Pie fans but looks more likely to stay at GC. Will not play for Carlton forget it. So we see Schache as a hedge against McKay not coming on. The bank is at least one of those two will become a gun.

4. Carlton trade pick 1 and pick 18 for Kelly, Kennedy and a salary dump.

Why? GWS wants Rayner and will only let Kelly go if they are guaranteed Rayner. They value pick 1 very highly. Kelly wants us the only spanner is a large offer from Essendon, but very likely to knock this back. Our whole strategy hinges on Kelly going to us. We believe this is 75% likely. The salary dump is a huge issue for GWS and they need the cap relief.

NET RESULT -

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38

In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache

The age composition of our mids is lowered with Kelly/Kennedy and Rockliff a similar age to Gibbs. Schache is valuable insurance for a KPF.

We don't have a pick this year until the fourth round but will take 3 picks at the end of the draft and get some delisted free agents. With the investment in the last two drafts and the desire to trade heavily into the 2018 draft with 2019 picks, we don't see this as a huge issue. There is also scope for the Suns to offer up 2nd/3rd round picks for players.

This is the desired blueprint for the Blues and what SOS believes is realistic. There are other options (Stringer for 2018 2nd but dogs likely to say no even if we take a salary dump) and embracing trading Gibbs plus some others for top 40 picks.

I only have one question:

How do you feel about the growth of the eSports sector in Australia?

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

OP left out the self sacrifice he makes by pulling a jet engine through a time vortex to close a time paradox he himself created by making these trades happen.

Thanks for sharing the rumour. Looks like a fantastic deal for us but there's a few things that don't make sense to me. Would be amazing if true though! Keen for people to offer their thoughts on the below...

1st is that Rockliff is likely to get them the pick 2 irrespective of whether he goes to us or elsewhere so why would they think we're doing them any favours? If he goes to port its likely to be on the same money as what we promise.

2nd is that 1, 18 and Schache is worth 3985 points and 4, 10, 38 are worth 3894 points. This is valuing schache at 0 points and still leaves us with the better hand in that deal. All for an extra pick in the top 10 and a downgrade of pick 1 to 4 as well? Seems strange. Yes they still have pick 2 which in effect might still be the player they wanted with 1 but it means their 2nd player may not be the one they want. Seems a strange deal to me so we'd definitely have to give something good to sweeten it from a points perspective and to not get schache for nothing. If that's Byrne we're essentially saying Byrne = Schache.

3rd seems like we're relying on a few things out of our control... AFL giving pick 2 for compo for Rockliff, GWS desperate for pick 1 for Rayner and the Crows willing to give pick 10 for Gibbs. All likely but a lot of ifs and you'd think that everyone would need to agree to all the moving parts before you'd do any one section of those deals/trades. Would there be risk that we started the process eg Gibbs and Rockliff and then GWS change their mind etc?

I see the net being a bit different as well:

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38, Byrne
In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache, Salary Dump

Also you mentioned GC interested in players for 2nd/3rd round picks. What players of ours are they interested in?

Your DVI values and math are a tad off given you've only adjusted our first pick give the compensation pick created.

Include the free agency spoils and if you rate Rockliff in the early second round, Brisbane get a top 10 pick for Schache.

That said, the option and front loading proposal suggested is total bullshit: length of initial contract is a factor for compensation, and such a move is a stupid play for the new club under the new CBA given free agency for life is on the menu and they can walk without exercising the option.

Schache alone is worth Pick 3. Former pick 2 KPF with 2 years under his belt is invaluable for us.

Gibbs for Kelly is a steal.

Rockliff is icing.

Schache is not. Overvalued in his draft year and didn't cope under that pressure.

Lever is worth 2 first round picks. If you were Adelaide, would you do the deal to win 1 or multiple flags, while they have the players they do? I know I would

Lever is not, or Sicily would be worth similar.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't know how I feel about the info tbh. If it's legit I'm a little worried about having this level of detail leaked to us. As much as I appreciate it and as intriguing as it is I'd be quite happy with just the players' names that we are targeting if it's from a strong, reliable source. Maybe this is too much information for our tiny brains to handle. Betty_Blue76

 

[rog1995]

No one wanted Martin a few years ago.

If Ablett asked for a trade two years ago clubs would line up.

Liam Jones was delist material 4 months ago.

Times change. Me thinks you are one of those who can’t be reasoned with. If you think x no amount of rationale discussion or evidence will let you even see that x may not be 100% right. People who can’t see the grey areas in life and lack self reflection usually die alone. Please reflect. I don’t want that for any blues fan!

Betty blue you bring some detailed analysis and for that I say thanks for sharing. Wheather it eventuates is subject to debate it's that time of year. After all this is the bluemour discussion forum we should appreciate the information as i personally believe the scenario as SOS does like to think outside the box.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I've read it very closely and I only need to use a bit of common sense to know it's a load of crap.

We are not going to offer a 28 year old $2M. The club has constantly pushed the ideal of getting in quality young players. Makes zero sense to chase that hard for a guy who will retire in 3-4 years.

Lions will not trade #1+#18 pretty much cancel out with #3+#10. But a contracted former #2 pick KPF in only his second year for pick #36? Yeah, sure

And how you conveniently know the plans of Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane and GWS all working to give us themost beneficial outcome...

Let alone the fact that you've ignored my question about Jones. Who were the 4 clubs that chased him and why would we tell them to get lost given we have a wealth of KPD all capable of playing his role next year? The club would be stupid to not at least entertain some offers.

Oh and GWS letting Patton go for pick #8 and #30 is an absolute joke.

And why would we completely forsake the draft when the club (especially Bolts) has said we will go to the draft again?

If we lose Gibbs and we help Brisbane get an additional first round pick after its current #1, in order to facilitate the rest of the trades, yes we would offer Rocky 2 years at $1 million each.

From Brisbane's perspective: gets new pick #2, gets our pick #4, gets Melbourne's pick (#10 or 11) and lose Rockliff, Schache, #1 and #18. Schache doesn't want to be there and the club cashes in on Rockliff as it goes in a different direction. 3 early picks in Top 20 rather than 2 (or 2 in Top 5 rather than 1).

From GWS' perspective: lose Kelly and Kennedy. No first round draft pick currently due to 1,000 point penalty. Gain picks 1 and 18 and possibly a third round pick. Salary dump has value for GWS too in retaining other star players.

From Adelaide's perspective: lose Lever and gains Gibbs. Anything extra (other than the pick #10 or 11) from Melbourne for the Lever leg, Adelaide keeps. Adelaide defence is solid and can cover the loss of Lever. Gibbs might have been the difference in the preliminary final loss to the Swans. One last shot at it before Jacobs, Betts, etc. retire and Sloane slows down ...

From our perspective: lose Gibbs, pick #4 and a third rounder. Get Rockliff, Kelly, Kennedy and Schache.

Lot of moving parts and variables.

But expect SOS to try to make this or something like this to happen.

What could make the difference is say: Adelaide gives up the Melbourne first pick for Gibbs AND Carlton and Adelaide swap say next year's second round picks.

 

[HBF]

Two things I forgot to add.

Murphy will step down as captain to focus on his game and Docherty will be captain with Cripps as VC. Won't be announced until the new year but Murphy suggested it in his exit interview.

If we had pick 1 SOS would take Fogarty. Believes he will be the clear standout. Rayner is not rated in our top 5

Awesome thanks BB76.

 

[Sheephead]

Don’t like conflict. Get enough off it in my line of work. After 60 hours a week egos and chips on shoulders just don’t do it for me. I got so stressed I had a heart attack at 32. Then discovered meditation and now I only do conflict if absolutely necessary

Very confident on the info. Just don’t need the abuse

That's him/her, that's the one. Same MO as when he/she was outed two off-seasons ago for fabrications, of which none came true. No doubt.

 

[HBF]

Yes. For a start I hate the popular vote for captain and we have made some crap leadership group decisions through the same process. Then Doc and Cripps are the standout candidates.

Agree with this.
Not only are they the standout candidates, but they are the most capable. Nothing earth shattering here.

 

[1981]

If the rumour is true Bettsy deserves an award. If it's a fabricated story Bettsy deserves an award.

 

[IronMan29]

I thought I read somewhere Silvagni did not rate Schache in the draft. His efforts for Brisbane wouldn't have changed his views. Also I don't think this trade scenario addresses our lack of foot speed with the exception of Kelly.

Schache will not be in Blue. SOS rates Kane Keppell higher than Schache ever since TAC days and Keppell wasn't drafted so there is your answer right there.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Either way its a win ... see you do get a medal now days for coming last!

 

[IronMan29]

If the rumour is true Bettsy deserves an award. If it's a fabricated story Bettsy deserves an award.

Some people really rate attention.

I would say if you have so many rumours and sources and you make money out of dealing with these people you benefit from keeping your mouth shut instead of shouting from a soap box.