Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[Young Gun #6]

I still reckon that Hawks loss in 2014 hurt more due to decision at the end and then Hawks belting Swans the next week after Swans were probably complacent after flogging North in their prelim.

That hurt more the 2007 GF but I think it was because we were so damn close to a premiership in 2014 after finishing 6th and not even a sniff in 2007.

 

[King Brown]

Losing a GF feels like you blew the game, losing a prelim feels like you blew the season.

 

[Xtreme]

Squigglebetter be accurate next week

 

[The Swans Blog]

Interesting. Tell me more on your blog.

It will continue through the finals and into the off season. We've got a weekly podcast that we'll keep going after the trade period then it'll slow down.

We're bringing on more contributors during the off season to add their own thoughts.

Pretty exciting stuff.

 

[AcuteWhistle]

Losing a GF feels like you blew the game, losing a prelim feels like you blew the season.

Dunno mate, GF loss stings last a lot longer than than a season.

 

[legend166]

Grand Final losses are honestly the worst. Because the only way to redeem it is to make the Grand Final again and win it, and that's a really hard thing to do (see the Swans this year).

Losing two Grand Finals in three years is even worse.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

If Geelong beat Sydney it would be a bigger upset than Richmond's QF victory. Geelong are being given Buckley's chance.

Well Buckley did get re-signed.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Making it to a gf and losing is far far better then not making it at all. Big prelim win and the experienxe of gf week is a real buzz.

Port Adelaide 2007 do not like this.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Grand Final losses are honestly the worst. Because the only way to redeem it is to make the Grand Final again and win it, and that's a really hard thing to do (see the Swans this year).

Losing two Grand Finals in three years is even worse.

Nothing compared to losing 4 in 7 years.

 

[Mantastic]

Nothing compared to losing 4 in 7 years.

That damn near broke me as a young man! Thank goodness we had Ablett. Would of been hard to keep the faith every week without him to watch.

 

[Rotayjay]

Port Adelaide 2007 do not like this.

I'd much rather lose a prelim (we Adelaide supporters are certainly used to it). Creates a sense of 'work harder and smarter next year' rather than 'we made it to the bggest stage and got totally exposed' (ala WCE in 2015). Also easier on us supporters than a GF loss.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

If Richmond lose the GF this year, you'll still be kicking yourself about the missed opportunity 10 years later. Prelims, not so much.

Really? Prelims from 97/98 still hurt.

 

[FyfeToAdelaide]

Really? Prelims from 97/98 still hurt.

Good years

 

[The_Steadier]

Losing two Grand Finals in three years is even worse.

Child please.

Try not winning 3 in 2 years.

 

[Golumless]

If Richmond lose the GF this year, you'll still be kicking yourself about the missed opportunity 10 years later. Prelims, not so much.

No, you do with prelims as well

 

[Richo83]

Richmond squeak into 3rd even with the heavily defensive game plan that Flagpole abhors. And Geelong are still rated pretty well, even though in the real world everyone has concluded that they are the worst football team to ever play the game and who will win that Adelaide v Sydney prelim.

I think this is one weakness in your (generally amazing) analysis, in that you presume that low scoring sides are low scoring because they play a defensive gameplan. The worst scoring team in the league is not necessarily the most defensive team, that implies that coaching means everything. Some years that may be true but I'd say for many years there's no perfectly clear correlation between the amount a team scores and their overall gamestyle.

If you look at Fremantle under Ross Lyon, which is often used as a benchmark for an overly defensive side which tried to win the flag and lost because of said gameplan, the dockers finished 11th for inside 50s in 2012, then went 9th in 2013, 8th in 2014, 7th in 2016, last in 2016 and third last this year. And that's including finals.

Richmond on the other hand is third this year for inside 50s, and while inside 50 counts can be caused by a lot of things, generally sides who have a lot of inside 50s are either playing attacking football or playing good football. The side averages around just 2-3 less inside 50s per game than Adelaide which is also a very attacking side.

Don't get me wrong, I suspect that Richmond's lack of scoring will hurt them much for the same reason it hurt Fremantle. But the reason why this team doesn't score much is different. Whilst Fremantle looked to clamp down on teams and played a cautious style of game with players behind the ball, Richmond is basically playing the Steve Nash suns run and gun "f*** it we'll do it live" style of play. The reason why Richmond is hard to score against is because their defensive players are good and Richmond sets up well. The reason why Richmond doesn't score much is because it doesn't have a good forwardline.

 

[Seeds]

No, you do with prelims as well

I still kick myself over the 93 season and we didnt even make the finals. We should of won it that year by a street.

 

[Jonts]

Port Adelaide 2007 do not like this.

Trolling aside, interestingly enough Salopek and Pettigrew both look back at that week as their best football memory

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Trolling aside, interestingly enough Salopek and Pettigrew both look back at that week as their best football memory

It may say a lot about them if they do. It's not like either player dominated in a losing side in the GF.

 

[Jonts]

It may say a lot about them if they do. It's not like either player dominated in a losing side in the GF.

Can't remember the Pettigrew interview but Salopek talked about the post match of the prelim feeling, training in front of a packed alberton and the parade.

Understandable imo

 

[Roobs321]

Grand Final and Prelim results can skew the form-line memory, so that the tragic loser in the prelim looks better than the flogged Grand Finalist. I believe that Sydney would have won 2014 comfortably against Port (Hawthorn delivered a GF performance for the ages which left Sydney shell-shocked) and I also believe that Port would have won by a couple goals against Collingwood in 2007. The Premier in both cases were beatable in their prelim thrillers, but brought their best for the final day.

 

[Golumless]

It may say a lot about them if they do. It's not like either player dominated in a losing side in the GF.

The week leading up to the grand final would be an excellent experience. The game not so much.

 

[GreyCrow]

Squigglebetter be accurate next week

SEASON PREDICTOR



FINALS: WEEK 2

FINALS: WEEK 3

Adelaide 89 - 69 Geelong

Win likelihood: 70.1% - 29.9%

Richmond 85 - 63 Greater Western Sydney

Win likelihood: 71.9% - 28.1%

2017 AFL GRAND FINAL

Adelaide 93 - 61 Richmond

M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 80.4% - 19.6%


I agree

 

[Seeds]

SEASON PREDICTOR



FINALS: WEEK 2

FINALS: WEEK 3

Adelaide 89 - 69 Geelong

Win likelihood: 70.1% - 29.9%

Richmond 85 - 63 Greater Western Sydney

Win likelihood: 71.9% - 28.1%

2017 AFL GRAND FINAL

Adelaide 93 - 61 Richmond

M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 80.4% - 19.6%


I agree

thankfully the squiggle utterly sucks at forecasting.

 

[Seeds]

Port Adelaide 2007 do not like this.

that was a once in a 120 year event though. its quite an outlier.