Bluemour Discussion Thread VIII

[HARKER]

I agree 100%.
If Shiel wants to go to Melbourne now, we simply have to make a move. Personally, I feel it would be better for both Dylan and the blues to wait a year. But if he wants a move then we need to go hard.
One thing to keep in mind next year is that Kelly may leave to North as well and I think Coniglio is a fa. There is a good possibility they can match our offer next year anyway and force a trade.

We get Shiel this year, we could be in with a better shot at Kelly, the next.
That's not the reason you recruit Shiel, but the sooner the group play together, the better, along with the fact we'd be a better side with Shiel involved.

Some people worry about how long a player may last but 6 years is a long time.
Many things change from year to year, let alone such a wide time frame and particularly given the fresh, new path we've taken on.

Everyone wants the shiny new toy but they take time to get going. Just look at the 2015 draft: Weitering, Schache, Mckay, Weideman, Parish, Francis, Hopper and Ah Chee. All top 10 picks.

 

[Broadside]

Wasn’t there some word back a while that blues bought this software that information was entered and it shows when to draft delist etc?

yes it was software used by - from memory - a baseball franchise like the Redsox to identify moneyball opportunities. It's been a bust, we still haven't found a starting pitcher of quality.

edit: here it is

http://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2015-04-15/from-the-ceos-desk-april-15

• Commenced the build of a list management database (the platform for which comes from the Boston Redsox) and an accompanying 'analytics program'. This program will allow us to store better information, benchmark and value players (our own and others), link it all to vision, and generally help us to make better and more informed decisions.

 

[Stamos]

Do we need it though? Do we need to be a little better 2019 to win premierships? We need our guns to win the flag from 2021 onwards.

I think we will be competitive in 2019 and for me that's enough.

As long as we have the player we need when it's our time to go for the flag then that's all we need.


We throw a pick at Shiel then we arrive at the station with missing cargo. That's not good management, that's a club folding to fan pressure, we gain very little by having him for next season.

The alternative might mean missing the train...

Do we need more good players in their peak age group? Absolutely. And the club is saying this publicly.
To say we can wait is ignoring the influence on the team and development that it would bring, synergy as Judd would say, momentum and narrative. If we have another bad year, the train might be derailed.

 

[smashbox gill]

I cant see GWS trading Shiel a year early in any case. He's one of their best players, they have a chance to win the flag next year and if they trade Shiel its essentially them giving up. No chance
He may leave next year when he's a free agent but cant see them trading him. Absolutely poor list management and would be shocking PR for the club, its culture and its other players

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Do we need it though? Do we need to be a little better 2019 to win premierships? We need our guns to win the flag from 2021 onwards.

I think we will be competitive in 2019 and for me that's enough.

As long as we have the player we need when it's our time to go for the flag then that's all we need.


We throw a pick at Shiel then we arrive at the station with missing cargo. That's not good management, that's a club folding to fan pressure, we gain very little by having him for next season.

You're suggesting we throw a massively valuable draft pick to have a pretty good player for one year and not a year where we are a premiership threat. It is impatience and a messiah complex. If we aren't going to be playing for the flag next year then why would we throw a really good draft pick at a player we can get for no picks right when we need him, when the timing is perfect in 2020.

We need more than Shiel. The reality is that we need about 6 really good players by 2020/2021 and using top draft picks when you don't have to is detrimental to achieving this. We built half a team around the 2010 period and that worked out poorly, we still have building to do. If those 6 players are top level player then we probably win premierships but if they are average then history will repeat itself and it will be another short and uneventful rise.

This draft is important to us because it's probably the last draft before the young players start getting a bit too young to impact in this period, the young players we draft in this draft will just be old enough to impact when we are a premiership chance. After this draft we can look at trading top picks for good players in their mid careers. This is still an important draft.

Champion players don't win flags. Champion teams full of champion players do. Numbers are what we need, not individuals and not before we need them.

I don't care when we get em as long as we have them by the time we are ready and we build a really good, deep best 22 and list. At this stage this list is not ready for us to stop building and start throwing draft top picks at players, we are not in a hurry, we have a little time yet, we need to make sure we get all the gun players we get because the 2019 season will mean stuff all when we win the 2022 premiership. What will mean a lot is who we have running out in that season and that is dictated by the choices we make now.

GOLD MEDAL POST RIGHT HERE!!!

Shiel is a great player but wont get us anymore wins next year. Its the team growing together as 1 that will.

I look at Dow and after 14 games im so impressed. Imagine him in 2020 with another season and 2 preseasons under his belt!

This is the year we start to rise and hope to have sustained sucess going forward.

Shiel will be 27 that season. And as pointed out. Many players who have copped injuries in their career start to drop off not too long after.

Shiel would be a great add. Leadership, yes, of course. But McVeigh adds leadership and would be cheap. Gaff does also and costs nothing. Even Brayshaw would be a great option with many more years to come and would be cheaper than Shiel. So would Lloyd.

There are players out there that would be great additions. Richmond went players that cost 2nd round picks until they thought a premiership was a chance. So they took Prestia. Lots of years still ahead of him. And i very much doubt they would have paid a top 2 pick for him. Caddy anyone?!?

Give me the opportunity to keep the build going. Bring in good foot soldiers. Like the ones i mentioned above.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

The alternative might mean missing the train...

Do we need more good players in their peak age group? Absolutely. And the club is saying this publicly.
To say we can wait is ignoring the influence on the team and development that it would bring, synergy as Judd would say, momentum and narrative. If we have another bad year, the train might be derailed.

And if we miss the Shiel train, who cares. There are always others and we are building the team nicely

 

[Stamos]

And if we miss the Shiel train, who cares. There are always others and we are building the team nicely

Sure, others. Who?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Sure, others. Who?

Oh that game! If we are targeting a player in contract... then anyone. Why not go to the top. Kelly... if we are ok about trading for a contracted player then anyone in the system is in play.

And i did mention others. Give me Brodie also while we are at it.

 

[Blue__Balls]

GOLD MEDAL POST RIGHT HERE!!!

Shiel is a great player but wont get us anymore wins next year. Its the team growing together as 1 that will.

I look at Dow and after 14 games im so impressed. Imagine him in 2020 with another season and 2 preseasons under his belt!

This is the year we start to rise and hope to have sustained sucess going forward.

Shiel will be 27 that season. And as pointed out. Many players who have copped injuries in their career start to drop off not too long after.

Shiel would be a great add. Leadership, yes, of course. But McVeigh adds leadership and would be cheap. Gaff does also and costs nothing. Even Brayshaw would be a great option with many more years to come and would be cheaper than Shiel. So would Lloyd.

There are players out there that would be great additions. Richmond went players that cost 2nd round picks until they thought a premiership was a chance. So they took Prestia. Lots of years still ahead of him. And i very much doubt they would have paid a top 2 pick for him. Caddy anyone?!?

Give me the opportunity to keep the build going. Bring in good foot soldiers. Like the ones i mentioned above.

Question - what if Shiel wants to play for Carlton and Gaff, Lloyd, McVeigh etc. say "no thanks"?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Question - what if Shiel wants to play for Carlton and Gaff, Lloyd, McVeigh etc. say "no thanks"?

Then we keep growing within.

 

[Mr_Plow]

I get both sides of the argument and I'd rather acquire Shiel without sacrificing any assets but I trust SOS to make the right trade for us.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Then we keep growing within.

So if one of the top 10-15 midfielders in the competition wants to come to our club, we tell him no? Despite the club being on record as saying we need to bring in some mature, quality players?

That's BS, mate. Don't take that personally - I just cannot see how the club wouldn't benefit from the on-field improvement, fan engagement and positive press, as well as increased profile in other player acquisitions. If we can turn our first rounder into Shiel and a later first rounder, we come out well ahead. We get that good young player through the draft, as well as a top-flight mid-20s midfielder. Sure, maybe it's Taylor or Rozee instead of Lukosius - but that could end up being Curnow or Rioli instead of Weitering, or Weller instead of McCartin.

We're not in a position to be miserly when it comes to talent. I'm not saying we overpay - but we sure as hell don't dig our heels in and say we only want quality players we don't have to pay for.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

So if one of the top 10-15 midfielders in the competition wants to come to our club, we tell him no? Despite the club being on record as saying we need to bring in some mature, quality players?

That's BS, mate. Don't take that personally - I just cannot see how the club wouldn't benefit from the on-field improvement, fan engagement and positive press, as well as increased profile in other player acquisitions. If we can turn our first rounder into Shiel and a later first rounder, we come out well ahead. We get that good young player through the draft, as well as a top-flight mid-20s midfielder. Sure, maybe it's Taylor or Rozee instead of Lukosius - but that could end up being Curnow or Rioli instead of Weitering, or Weller instead of McCartin.

We're not in a position to be miserly when it comes to talent. I'm not saying we overpay - but we sure as hell don't dig our heels in and say we only want quality players we don't have to pay for.

Nothing i wrote is BS.

If we do trade our top 2 pick for Shiel... give it no more than 12 weeks and there will be backlash. Other clubs will laugh at our trade.

Walsh will probably be leading the rising star award or close to it. And lukosius will be looking very good in whichever team he goes to.

Mark my words, 3 years later we will be regreting it. And thats the time we should be challenging for a premiership.

If Shiel wants to come, it cant be for our first. Plenty of others better and younger id trade a top 2 pick for.

 

[thylacine60]

I get both sides of the argument and I'd rather acquire Shiel without sacrificing any assets but I trust SOS to make the right trade for us.

I trust Mr Plow to trust SOS............

 

[Stamos]

Plenty of others better and younger id trade a top 2 pick for.

Name them

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Name them

Kelly
Oliver
Mitchell
Macrae
Whitfield

Just to name a few and you know this

If you are happy to target a contracted player. So be it. Im not, especially with a top 2 pick

 

[thylacine60]

IOS or android?

beta or vhs?

 

[Mr_Plow]

Nothing i wrote is BS.

If we do trade our top 2 pick for Shiel... give it no more than 12 weeks and there will be backlash. Other clubs will laugh at our trade.

Walsh will probably be leading the rising star award or close to it. And lukosius will be looking very good in whichever team he goes to.

Mark my words, 3 years later we will be regreting it. And thats the time we should be challenging for a premiership.

If Shiel wants to come, it cant be for our first. Plenty of others better and younger id trade a top 2 pick for.

Don't buy into draftee hype too much. Invariably player's trajectories **** up.

Lukosius lacks intensity and defensive pressure and Walsh doesn't have break away speed and his disposal isn't great.

They're rarely as good as they seem.

 

[Stamos]

Kelly
Oliver
Mitchell
Macrae
Whitfield

Just to name a few and you know this

If you are happy to target a contracted player. So be it. Im not, especially with a top 2 pick

You really think any of them are gettable?
IF Kelly wanted to come to Carlton this trade period, and the Giants were open to it, it would cost our first this year and next (perhaps if we were lucky a second or a third coming back). And we would do it in a heartbeat.

 

[bludrew79]

IF we can get Shiel and still have a top 10 pick this year and a first rounder next year (not necessarily our own) would you do it?

 

[Bearded Carpenter]

Did you know you can yo go anywhere you go?
I didn't.
Turning point.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Kelly
Oliver
Mitchell
Macrae
Whitfield

Just to name a few and you know this

If you are happy to target a contracted player. So be it. Im not, especially with a top 2 pick

You need to understand though - the player has to want to come to Carlton.

See North Melbourne and Kelly, Martin, De Goey. You can have the cash and the picks to get it done, but if the player doesn't want to join you, it's all academic.

Yes, I'd absolutely love to land any of those players, but you've got Kelly in the same boat as Shiel (just re-signed) but worth more ($$$ and picks), Oliver firmly entrenched in a quality midfield pushing hard at finals, and Mitchell who we failed/chose not to secure a few years ago and is at one of the best administered clubs going around.

Macrae and Whitfield may be more gettable based on team performance (Macrae) and salary squeeze (Whitfield) - but there would also be other clubs in the discussion too (NM, St Kilda, Richmond, Hawthorn etc.) who'd have just as strong a case as us, maybe stronger, not to mention the chance they do a De Goey and stay loyal to their club.

Again - if a quality player in the age bracket we're targeting wants to play for Carlton - get the trade done (without getting shafted).

 

[thylacine60]

IF we can get Shiel and still have a top 10 pick this year and a first rounder next year (not necessarily our own) would you do it?

in my undies

 

[Metalcrusher]

Jordan De Goey reportedly about to re-sign with Collingwood.

If you want to re-sign one of your players tell them North Melbourne is chasing them.

Someone start a rumour that north is chasing Cripps, we will sign the legend up for life.

Lol Poor Norf .... always the bridesmaid!

 

[TooBlue14]

I’d much prefer to trade schrimshaw and 2 or 3 for 1. Then trade 2 or 3 for 9 and Shiel. Then trade 9 for McGovern and 17.

We turn pick 1 into 17, schrimshaw, Shiel and McGovern. We then use 17 on a Collier-dawkins and were set.

The other option is to trade future first with GC for Schrimshaw and 8-14. Use the 8 for Shiel. Go in with Walsh, Shiel and schrimshaw in 2019. It also makes Carlton more appetising for FA in future. You’d expect Jeremy mcgovern and gaff to turn and look if it happens.