Hellboy101
Senior List
Tailed this bet. Looking ok so far. May come down to Smith. Fingers crossed
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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 17
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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Yeah, it might get up. I tend to avoid these buildabets because there's always some leg that's unlikely to get up. This one looked okay, though. Smith has a goal in 12 of 15 games so it seemed probable. Pity Martin copped an injury in Q2.
I have a betting model which I put together. I haven't actually seen another betting model so i'm not sure how it would compare but obviously I look at all the factors that you'd expect including form, HGA and so on.
I also look at psychological factors and the impact of wins, losses and how teams maintain intensity by allocating a score per game for each teams performance. This potentially throws up very profitable scenarios because under certain circumstances results can be counter-intuitive in that good form can then translate to a bad game and poor form can lead to a good game (ie Hawks in their Premiership years might be have a poor game then back it up the next week to cover the line).
I have some theories that i'm playing around with that can be quantified by comparing the closing line to the final result.
Ideally I will have a team beating the line like the Hawks at -23.5 then add in a bit of revenge factor (Hodge and Fagan smashing them at the Gabba) and Bris potentially have a letdown game after 2 fantastic wins. Currently Bris are playing pretty well which to me seems like they are further into their development than I thought.
Things like Sloane re-signing are impossible to quantify, but he had a cracking game, the crowd was pumped and Sloane's teammates were pumped (got mobbed when he kicked a goal). It impacts for me.
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thinking overs, both can be quite aggressive teams
So before the game, how many points did you have Sloane's resigning worth? And with extra information after the game, what correction factor did you use, that is repeatable, to requantify the points impact of Sloane's resigning?
- Oct 25, 2017
- 227
- 112
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Yeah. Got on... Oh well. Mixed bag so far. Hawks loss today hurt too but TGS on that game worked out. Now looking at ways to throw it all away again. Any ideas for tonight?
GC/ESS - o156.5 (365)
I
was looking at this game, think the night game and dew will be a factor?
- Oct 25, 2017
- 227
- 112
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Just looking at that. Last 3 games there 157,158 and 159.. Interesting line but I like to have an interest. So getting on. Just threw a bit on the over TGS for the Tiggies Giants too?
- Oct 25, 2017
- 227
- 112
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Bit warmer up there...
2.8 to 2.4 at QT ffs
Lyons plenty of kicks but struggling to reach 25 tiuxhes
on 19
on 19
- Sep 17, 2014
- 1,211
- 1,350
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Higgins under 26.5. George Hewett tag?
Thoughts on Sydney v North with all Sydney's outs? Is it too many outs for sydney or can they cover enough to still beat North?
North in a close one
i dont buy the sydney outs theory... Hannebry and Jack are basically fringe now.. and they get back 3 very handy players Heeney, Hewett, Papley.... i will be on swans to rediscover some form... they don't usually stumble into September and i expect them to regain some mojo in the next 5-6 weeks.
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SM
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Eagles Pies is very hard to read. I might lean Pies at the G though.
Two really hard to read games today.
Eagles have their forward line back, they aren't going to be the side that lost 3 in a row. Pies have won 7 in a row and are firing, but have only beaten 1 decent team in that time (Melbourne). Are they due for a Melbourne-like reality check after the Dees won 6 in a row only to be sat back down by the Pies? MCG swings it a bit the Pies way but 8 weeks is a long time to keep winning in AFL.
I like West Coast H2H @ $2.68 (Bet365), +13.5 @ $1.96 (WH), and over 165.5 @ $1.90.
edit: Eagles just went down to $2.62 at Bet365 but are $2.67 at WH for the time being
Eagles have their forward line back, they aren't going to be the side that lost 3 in a row. Pies have won 7 in a row and are firing, but have only beaten 1 decent team in that time (Melbourne). Are they due for a Melbourne-like reality check after the Dees won 6 in a row only to be sat back down by the Pies? MCG swings it a bit the Pies way but 8 weeks is a long time to keep winning in AFL.
I like West Coast H2H @ $2.68 (Bet365), +13.5 @ $1.96 (WH), and over 165.5 @ $1.90.
edit: Eagles just went down to $2.62 at Bet365 but are $2.67 at WH for the time being
North v Sydney
Sydney's record at Etihad is a bit overstated I reckon. And have lost 2 in a row. While North have lost their two last games v middling opposition or better (Essendon, Geelong) and had less than impressive wins v two sides entrenched in the bottom 6 (Dogs, Suns). Really hard to read - last time in Sydney, North had a lot more forward options, with Wood kicking 4 goals and Ziebell 4 behinds. No Wood now, and Ziebell is still a subpar shot on goal. Brown will likely be swamped by Grundy and Rampe, so North need kicking boots from Ziebell as well as goals from Turner, Simpkin, Atley, Higgins, Ahern and even Daw. Not sure there will be enough clearance opportunity generated by the Roos midfield to get a winning score against a miserable defence.
I like Sydney 1-39 @ $2.60 and U165.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365).
Also Cunnington +24.5 disposals on Pointsbet @ $1.75. Missed this a couple of weeks back when he hurt his thumb v Essendon but think it should be like shelling peas for him today.
Sydney's record at Etihad is a bit overstated I reckon. And have lost 2 in a row. While North have lost their two last games v middling opposition or better (Essendon, Geelong) and had less than impressive wins v two sides entrenched in the bottom 6 (Dogs, Suns). Really hard to read - last time in Sydney, North had a lot more forward options, with Wood kicking 4 goals and Ziebell 4 behinds. No Wood now, and Ziebell is still a subpar shot on goal. Brown will likely be swamped by Grundy and Rampe, so North need kicking boots from Ziebell as well as goals from Turner, Simpkin, Atley, Higgins, Ahern and even Daw. Not sure there will be enough clearance opportunity generated by the Roos midfield to get a winning score against a miserable defence.
I like Sydney 1-39 @ $2.60 and U165.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365).
Also Cunnington +24.5 disposals on Pointsbet @ $1.75. Missed this a couple of weeks back when he hurt his thumb v Essendon but think it should be like shelling peas for him today.
got on last night,
1u ronke 2g+ @2.40 b365 (in to 2.33 now)
0.5u ronke 3g+ @9.5 sb (in to 7.50 now)
0.3u papley 3g+ @13 sb (in to 9)
0.3u parker 2g+ @5 b365 (in to 4.75)
0.2u parker 3g+ @19 b365
1u ronke 2g+ @2.40 b365 (in to 2.33 now)
0.5u ronke 3g+ @9.5 sb (in to 7.50 now)
0.3u papley 3g+ @13 sb (in to 9)
0.3u parker 2g+ @5 b365 (in to 4.75)
0.2u parker 3g+ @19 b365
- Aug 15, 2011
- 27,080
- 10,209
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Any Jaiden Stephenson goal lines?
- Aug 15, 2011
- 27,080
- 10,209
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Who are these done with?
- Status
