Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Gethelred]

So an end of first round priority pick (19) is the best possible priority pick to obtain? Jon Ralph has worded that very weirdly.

... because he's full of shit, and is designed to split his readership in order to sell controversy badged as opinion.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I reckon I've missed something

Where has the belief come from that we're ANY chance of landing Kelly?

It just sounds ridiculous, for so many reasons

Yeah, you missed a fair bit...

Comment was made that a high priority pick could come with the stipulatiom that we need to use it to trade in a quality senior player. I'm just pointing out that said player needs to be available and willing, and their club would need to be open to the trade.

So if the AFL says "here's pick 4, but we want you to trade it, not draft with it" we can attempt to trade for unrealistic targets and then take it to the draft anyway.

 

[Bluey24]

Yeah, you missed a fair bit...

Comment was made that a high priority pick could come with the stipulatiom that we need to use it to trade in a quality senior player. I'm just pointing out that said player needs to be available and willing, and their club would need to be open to the trade.

So if the AFL says "here's pick 4, but we want you to trade it, not draft with it" we can attempt to trade for unrealistic targets and then take it to the draft anyway.

Soooo

I haven't missed anything?

 

[teknodeejay]

I'd be really surprised if we were given a companion pick up the top of the draft to go with Pick 1. Not that I don't think we need it... we're in a world of hurt and the ability to add two top end elite and hope we don't bugger up the development will be immense for the club.

Those that don't think Carlton need as much help as humanly possible are a bunch of grave dancers who everyone ought to remember if or when their club is in a patch.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Shiel is 50/50 to leave this year vs next year. We are not going to sell the farm (and nor should we).

There is also a really strong push to get the GWS boys a flag before they come home.

#Bluemour

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

Shame.

Why?
Enough of trying to trade highly rated youngsters who are always injured and have proven nothing

FFS.....










As Thy would say

 

[chunkylover53]

Shiel, who is 5th-6th string in their midfield, who is a FA next year, is not worth pick 3.

Classic Carlton fan refusing to rate any other player. He is not their 5th-6th, he’s about their 3rd behind Kelly and Coniglio and probably just in front of Ward - those names are also no spuds. Yes, and he’s contracted for next year and would probably net them pretty handy compo?? You pay overs for contracted players even if it is their last year. Especially if it’s a free hit like a priority pick.

 

[Gethelred]

Classic Carlton fan refusing to rate any other player. He is not their 5th-6th, he’s about their 3rd behind Kelly and Coniglio and probably just in front of Ward - those names are also no spuds. Yes, and he’s contracted for next year and would probably net them pretty handy compo?? You pay overs for contracted players even if it is their last year. Especially if it’s a free hit like a priority pick.

... except if you'd bothered to read a little further - or noted who you're commenting, or paid any attention whatsoever - you'd have noted that I'm a huge fan of Shiels, and that I'd be stoked to have him in blue. My issue is only to do with the price via trade it would take to get him, as it should be calculated by how valuable he is to his own team, rather than how valuable he is to ours.

In that midfield, he is not a better player than Kelly, Ward, Whitfield or Coniglio. He'd be our second best mid, with the comparison between him and Cripps falling apart due to the apples and cantaloupe levels of comparison between the two making them difficult to split. If we paid what he's worth to us, he's worth pick 1 and upwards; if we pay what he's worth to them, he's definitely not worth pick 3, and he's probably valued around pick 10.

Before you decide to go off half cocked, perhaps next time actually bother to read what's written, hmm?

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Paul Barbazza from the Carlton Show suggesting that he has mail that our PP will be within the top ten.

#bluemour

Not anything confirmed, he said he would be shocked, which I think means that he thinks that it is due. If he was more certain, I would take it more seriously

Maybe a bit speculative, but Andy Maher is not a nobody. And goreds is a reliable rumourmonger IMO.



#Bluemour

Once again, I think opinion was playing a factor in what he said

 

[The Bighouse]

... except if you'd bothered to read a little further - or noted who you're commenting, or paid any attention whatsoever - you'd have noted that I'm a huge fan of Shiels, and that I'd be stoked to have him in blue. My issue is only to do with the price via trade it would take to get him, as it should be calculated by how valuable he is to his own team, rather than how valuable he is to ours.

In that midfield, he is not a better player than Kelly, Ward, Whitfield or Coniglio. He'd be our second best mid, with the comparison between him and Cripps falling apart due to the apples and cantaloupe levels of comparison between the two making them difficult to split. If we paid what he's worth to us, he's worth pick 1 and upwards; if we pay what he's worth to them, he's definitely not worth pick 3, and he's probably valued around pick 10.

Before you decide to go off half cocked, perhaps next time actually bother to read what's written, hmm?

Think I heard Shiel being mentioned on Fox Footy in a move to ESS, then J. Brown saying 2 x 1st rounders if so.

 

[Keyza]

I'm sure the AFL would hand it to us & GC on the proviso that it is traded for experienced players.
They won't want both us and GC to go in with a bunch of 19yo again

What if you can't get an experienced player that is worth a top pick to come to your club? Good players do not go to the bottom clubs so what happens then?

 

[ParapMarkets]

... except if you'd bothered to read a little further - or noted who you're commenting, or paid any attention whatsoever - you'd have noted that I'm a huge fan of Shiels, and that I'd be stoked to have him in blue. My issue is only to do with the price via trade it would take to get him, as it should be calculated by how valuable he is to his own team, rather than how valuable he is to ours.

In that midfield, he is not a better player than Kelly, Ward, Whitfield or Coniglio. He'd be our second best mid, with the comparison between him and Cripps falling apart due to the apples and cantaloupe levels of comparison between the two making them difficult to split. If we paid what he's worth to us, he's worth pick 1 and upwards; if we pay what he's worth to them, he's definitely not worth pick 3, and he's probably valued around pick 10.

Before you decide to go off half cocked, perhaps next time actually bother to read what's written, hmm?

He’s not 5th or 6th best mid there though, he was All Australian last year ahead of most of the names you have mentioned. Whitfield is playing across half back. It’s all subjective but to say he is 5th or 6th best mid at GWS is just wrong.

 

[Gethelred]

Think I heard Shiel being mentioned on Fox Footy in a move to ESS, then J. Brown saying 2 x 1st rounders if so.

Because if Jonathan Brown says so, it must be true.

He’s not 5th or 6th best mid there though, he was All Australian last year ahead of most of the names you have mentioned. Whitfield is playing across half back. It’s all subjective but to say he is 5th or 6th best mid at GWS is just wrong.

Okay.

Name who he's better than, then. The other options they have in his position are: Coniglio, Ward, Whitfield, Hopper, Griffin, Deledio, Greene, Kelly, Scully.

I'm plenty willing to entertain the idea that he's better those players, but from a purely realistic perspective at least three if not four of those players could step into his role without much change in output, and that's before adding players like Taranto to the potential usurper's list.

 

[Keyza]

Jay Clarke on Triple M with JB & Billy - "The AFL are believed to be strongly considering allocating priority picks to Carlton & Gold Coast at the TOP end of the draft. For example, Carlton will have picks 1 & 2, Gold Coast will then have picks 3,4 & 5 (Tom Lynch compo)."
If true, this would put us in such a great position at this years trade/draft period. No, it wont fix us straight away, but if used wisely will surely set us on the way.
JB cracked it of course & then said Eddie will burn AFL House down if this eventuates.

Then the AFL will just have to introduce a rule that says free agents cannot go to clubs in the top 8. Simple. Clubs cannot have it both ways, the bottom clubs cannot attract top talent via free agency so the draft and any PP's is the only way for them to improve.

 

[DangerousD]

Pick 1 - CFC Walsh
Pick 4 - GWS for Shiel and Change (either way)
GCS get pick 2 and 3
GWS get pick 4
Big tick for the AFL expansion clubs.

Can totally see it, not sure theres any change coming back though. If it happened it would be on the proviso to get a senior player, and help the Giants.

 

[gbatman]

The early PP was never proven to be a great unfair advantage, teams weren't getting two early picks and going on to dominate, perhaps Hawthorn but that's only part of their story. The way I see it is that betting agencies squealed a bit because teams played for the PP a bit. Tanking never affected the outcome of the season and rarely happened anyway. The AFL have taken so much from bottom sides and given so much to top sides the last few seasons, it needs to look into giving a bit back. We can get back up without a PP but it would be nice to have more guarantee, security and to do it quicker. I think a pick around the 10 mark is fair but the AFL need to look at ways to better resource very weak sides.

Would not surprise me if the AFL are taking notice because one of their projects is on the verge of falling over. Can't give the Gold Coast assistance without giving Carlton assistance so there is always that.

 

[Keyza]

dream over

So why does Jon Ralph say it is good news? Good news for who?

 

[chunkylover53]

... except if you'd bothered to read a little further - or noted who you're commenting, or paid any attention whatsoever - you'd have noted that I'm a huge fan of Shiels, and that I'd be stoked to have him in blue. My issue is only to do with the price via trade it would take to get him, as it should be calculated by how valuable he is to his own team, rather than how valuable he is to ours.

In that midfield, he is not a better player than Kelly, Ward, Whitfield or Coniglio. He'd be our second best mid, with the comparison between him and Cripps falling apart due to the apples and cantaloupe levels of comparison between the two making them difficult to split. If we paid what he's worth to us, he's worth pick 1 and upwards; if we pay what he's worth to them, he's definitely not worth pick 3, and he's probably valued around pick 10.

Before you decide to go off half cocked, perhaps next time actually bother to read what's written, hmm?

Pretty hard on the defence there champ. Can’t see how my post was half cocked?

Shiel was AA last year ahead of those players you listed and Whitfield was moved to half back where he’s played all year because his form wasn’t great in the middle - so we can leave him out of the conversation.

Also disagree with your logic, the market sets the value and if we’re buyers and he’s worth pick 1 and upwards to us, doesn’t that mean that’s his market price? If businesses sold their goods and services for net price they wouldn’t be doing a very good job hmm?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

So why does Jon Ralph say it is good news? Good news for who?

Good news for Carlton haters I'd say.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Then the AFL will just have to introduce a rule that says free agents cannot go to clubs in the top 8. Simple. Clubs cannot have it both ways, the bottom clubs cannot attract top talent via free agency so the draft and any PP's is the only way for them to improve.

Just take away all compo. Bottom clubs should be able to match any offer anyway, where tops sides cannot.
They would just have to somehow make clubs show salary cap details during trade week so clubs can't say that can match a bid when in reality they can't. Maybe make trade week three weeks with the second week allowing teams to make room to match bids ect by trading rewriting salaries ect. If they can't by than, then they can't match a bid and the player can move. It than gives the last week for any other trades

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Just take away all compo. Bottom clubs should be able to match any offer anyway, where tops sides cannot.
They would just have to somehow make clubs show salary cap details during trade week so clubs can't say that can match a bid when in reality they can't. Maybe make trade week three weeks with the second week allowing teams to make room to match bids ect by trading rewriting salaries ect. If they can't by than, then they can't match a bid and the player can move. It than gives the last week for any other trades

So not only does FA help the top clubs, you want to take away compensation from the bottom clubs as well. Bottom clubs can't afford to rebuild by spending a fortune on one player. Players leaving for success are after more than money and they can affect the culture of the club if they force them to stay. It's lose/lose for bottom sides without compensation.

 

[DangerousD]

You might be putting that a tad high. There is a lot of noise coming out about this. Maybe it’s just noise.....

Classic negotiating, release info saying the Blues will get a PP at pick 3, wait for the melts then give the Blues a PP at 11 and fans will breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

CFC to get Pick 1 + 3 …. lol …. I must have warped into an alternate reality. If we apply and if its granted it will be end of first round.

Agreed. We don't suck bad enough to warrant the AFL obliging us this way.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

IMO when fully fit it’s a line ball after Kelly between Sheil, Whitfield/Ward(Ward obviously older and as such worth less), Coniglio has lifted this yr- Sheil would comfortably be the 2nd best midfielder in our side by quite a margin & most other sides as well

I'd have him even with Ward, Whitfield and Coniglio. Eq 2nd from 2-5.

 

[Gethelred]

Pretty hard on the defence there champ. Can’t see how my post was half cocked?

Shiel was AA last year ahead of those players you listed and Whitfield was moved to half back where he’s played all year because his form wasn’t great in the middle - so we can leave him out of the conversation.

Also disagree with your logic, the market sets the value and if we’re buyers and he’s worth pick 1 and upwards to us, doesn’t that mean that’s his market price? If businesses sold their goods and services for net price they wouldn’t be doing a very good job hmm?

Why would we pay market price for a player we don't need?

Our task is to convince Shiel to come to us; offer him whatever money we want to make us his preferred destination, and to ensure that he understands that whatever we say to GWS we value his services and his commitment.

Our narrative as it were is that we really don't need the bloke. We can keep going to the draft, pick up the next Shiel for the cost merely of a draft pick and develop him ourselves. As far as we're concerned, he's already on the list. We can go to the draft and pick up Walsh and the bloke'll be smashing it inside 6 months, we can trade down the draft and grab Smith or Rozee - depending on where our pick falls after trading down - and we'll have a dynamic young midfield forward presence that we may need more than we need Shiel.

They need to continue their program of trading out talent to get in draft picks. It's what makes them relevant, keeps them in the hunt for finals and keeps them awash in quality. They need the picks more than we need Shiel; they cannot afford to bottom out or to not win a GF before their players opt out.

And, I remind you, we have entirely the option of telling them, on top of not needing him at all, they could lose him for a second round pick if they couldn't match a FA offer for him next year. They have a choice; take what's on offer in a strong draft (whether that be pick 19 + pick 23, we manipulate our seconds in order to secure pick 9-10, or offer our 2019 first + a second) or risk him going for what could be effectively - pending their results next year - be a late second. Their cap is tight; there is a reason why, every single season, they have had to offload players to give themselves a little leeway.

Simply put, there are many ways we could play this situation, and in the event of the AFL being stupid enough to provide us with picks 1+3 offering pick 3 would be the wrong move. They'd take it and run.