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List Mgmt. 2018 List Management: Contracts, Trading, Drafting, Academy

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From ESPN comment on Academy prospect Mathew Walker and also Nicholas Murray an Academy prospect, I think they may both have played 1 or 2 games earlier in the year for the academy although not sure how much of a chance Murray is of being drafted and it could depend on list spots as there may only be 1 category B rookie spot if they keep one of Stein or J Buckley along with Sproule and then maybe 2 or 3 category A rookie spots

An intercept marking force in defence, Mathew Walker read the ball in flight and regularly worked into position to intercept. He also went for a run through the midfield where he showed he could win the football, moving effectively in traffic. Walker has the versatility to play back, midfield or forward, with a six-goal haul against Western his other notable performance. Named Murray's best, the 187cm, 76kg, utility contributed 18 disposals, seven marks (one contested), five tackles, four clearances and five inside 50s.
Murray captain and brother of Collingwood's Sam Murray, Nicholas Murray impressed with his intercept marking. The 193cm, 89kg, defender gathered 18 disposals, five marks (two contested) and five tackles.
 

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Griffen - personally I wouldn't. Has attended something like 1 centre bounce this year, and spent majority of his time forward. Has been solid there for sure, but my concern is that his physical capacity is reducing, he's becoming more susceptible to injury, and one more year could be like Stevie J's last year - one year too far. Our future mid-sized forward line is Greene, MdB, Langdon/Daniels & a resting midfielder IMHO. We also have guys such as Lloyd, Reid, Tiziani & Dylan Buckley who are small/medium forwards so I believe that we're adequately covered, and need to renew the midfield list. Given (a) Griffen's salary & (b) that we have to move on 3 players this year (plus who's likely to go next year with Shaw & Deledio plus other potential losses), then keeping him for one year is IMHO a false step.
 
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So, unwelcome whispers that Dylan Shiel may be on the move. It may not prove to be true (I'd prefer to keep him in 2019 even if FA compo then is worse, and I'll only give up hope when a departure announcement is made) - Raymann has noted that it's not entirely solid - but his previous whispers unfortunately have tended to be on the money.

However, if he does go, my general thoughts on where GWS is at (mixture of my own thoughts & trying to interpret likely GWS actions based on past behaviour):
  • certain departures from the main list over the next 2 years will be Griffen, Mohr, Deledio & Shaw (3 of whom will release significant $)
  • others on the main list with question marks (at this point) for me are: Simpson (due to age + Flynn's progress) Keeffe (although I think we will keep him next year as an emergency ruck) Finlayson and Tiziani (ignoring any other possible FA or player-initiated trade-related departures)
  • most of the rookies have question marks - Reid, both Buckleys & Stein - while happy to keep Lloyd & Sproule a chance for upgrade to main list either this year or next
  • academy possibilities for the main list over the next two years are Keiran Briggs (ruck/forward) this year and next year Tom Green (inside mid - possible top 10) & Liam Delahunty (KPP - has played both forward & back); James Peatling and Matt Walker would only be rookie list possibles this year
  • current picks likely to start with one mid-teens: on Round 22 table #s 13, 23, 44,49 & 67
  • I hope that we keep list changes to a minimum both this year and next; I'm happy with the list balance & quality and I don't think we need to bring in outside talent (unless Flynn doesn't come up to speed in next 2 years), so really not much more required than natural losses
The 'so what?' for me then is:
  • If Shiel departs this year, then I'd limit departures to him, Griffen & Mohr this year
  • Next year would be Shaw, Deledio and potentially one of Simpson or Keeffe
  • we would want 2 picks this year before Briggs likely to be nominated by another club (I'd suggest late 20s is earliest) then multiple later picks would provide the points for Briggs (3 departures would give us 5 picks to use, on the grounds that we fill 38 out of 40 possible main list spots)
  • we would want extra picks next year to cover for Green being a possible early pick; although I'd consider Sproule as a possible rookie upgrade as the third main list draftee could help our points position
Shiel trade discussion:
  • I value Shiel in the 2 to 5 region, however, I daresay some would argue that both outright and due to this year's supposed 'superdraft' rating.
  • I would prefer 2 first round picks - akin the Treloar trade - (2018 & 2019, the latter to help with Tom Green) with something going back - a 2nd rounder. If Essendon is supposedly favoured to get his signature, then their 2018 (likely) pick 8 (noting all picks are likely to slide right with Lynch compo and GCS & Carlton PPs) + 2019 (likely mid teens as they rise up the table) and giving them 23 this year. That would leave GWS with roughly 8, 13 (becoming likely 9 & 14), 44, 49, 67 (likely to be something like 47, 52 & 70 in the end). Those last three picks would provide the points, once academy discount is factored in, to pick up Briggs from any nomination as early as 24. (anything earlier & we'd just carry the points into next year.)
  • The suggestion from Jon Ralph is, I understand, Essendon's first plus our own second (traded to Essendon last year as part of the Dev Smith trade). That is actually around the same points value, equivalent to around pick 5, and while less valuable to GWS I suspect it's the more likely outcome for us. That would give us this year roughly 8, 13, 23, 31, 44, 49, 67 before any extra picks slot in; with no extra picks for 2019 draft. We can't use all of those picks, so would need to either bundle some for an earlier pick or trade some into 2019 IMHO. Perhaps saints would be interested in 8, 13, 31 for pick 3 (yes they lose a top quality pick but get two first rounders plus a second rounder) - that would get GWS close to a Shiel replacement in someone like Smith, Walsh or Rankine. Otherwise, would Freo be interested in trading pick 5 for 8 & 13 - they need to add quality but also need numbers with their list? In the latter case, I'd also find someone to trade 31 to, in exchange for a 2019 second rounder for some extra points next years.
Other thoughts?
 
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Giant Strides said:
So, unwelcome whispers that Dylan Shiel may be on the move. It may not prove to be true (I'd prefer to keep him in 2019 even if FA compo then is worse, and I'll only give up hope when a departure announcement is made) - Raymann has noted that it's not entirely solid - but his previous whispers unfortunately have tended to be on the money.

However, if he does go, my general thoughts on where GWS is at (mixture of my own thoughts & trying to interpret likely GWS actions based on past behaviour):
  • certain departures from the main list over the next 2 years will be Griffen, Mohr, Deledio & Shaw (3 of whom will release significant $)
  • others on the main list with question marks (at this point) for me are: Simpson (due to age + Flynn's progress) Keeffe (although I think we will keep him next year as an emergency ruck) Finlayson and Tiziani (ignoring any other possible FA or trade-related departures)
  • most of the rookies have question marks - Reid, both Buckleys & Stein - while happy to keep Lloyd & Sproule a chance for upgrade to main list either this year or next
  • academy possibilities for the main list over the next two years are Keiran Briggs (ruck/forward) this year and next year Tom Green (inside mid - possible top 10) & Liam Delahunty (KPP - has played both forward & back); James Peatling and Matt Walker would only be rookie list possibles this year
  • current picks likely to start with one mid-teens: on Round 22 table #s 13, 23, 44,49 & 67
  • I hope that we keep list changes to a minimum both this year and next; I'm happy with the list balance & quality and I don't think we need to bring in outside talent (unless Flynn doesn't come up to speed in next 2 years), so really not much more required than natural losses
The 'so what?' for me then is:
  • If Shiel departs this year, then I'd limit departures to him, Griffen & Mohr this year
  • Next year would be Shaw, Deledio and potentially one of Simpson or Keeffe
  • we would want 2 picks this year before Briggs likely to be nominated by another club (I'd suggest late 20s is earliest) then multiple later picks would provide the points for Briggs (3 departures would give us 5 picks to use, on the grounds that we fill 38 out of 40 possible main list spots)
  • we would want extra picks next year to cover for Green being a possible early pick; although I'd consider Sproule as a possible rookie upgrade as the third main list draftee could help our points position
Shiel trade discussion:
  • I value Shiel in the 2 to 5 region, however, I daresay some would argue that both outright and due to this year's supposed 'superdraft' rating.
  • I would prefer 2 first round picks - akin the Treloar trade - (2018 & 2019, the latter to help with Tom Green) with something going back - a 2nd rounder. If Essendon is supposedly favoured to get his signature, then their 2018 (likely) pick 8 (noting all picks are likely to slide right with Lynch compo and GCS & Carlton PPs) + 2019 (likely mid teens as they rise up the table) and giving them 23 this year. That would leave GWS with roughly 8, 13 (becoming likely 9 & 14), 44, 49, 67 (likely to be something like 47, 52 & 70 in the end). Those last three picks would provide the points, once academy discount is factored in, to pick up Briggs from any nomination as early as 24. (anything earlier & we'd just carry the points into next year.)
  • The suggestion from Jon Ralph is, I understand, Essendon's first plus our own second (traded to Essendon last year as part of the Dev Smith trade). That is actually around the same points value, equivalent to around pick 5, and while less valuable to GWS I suspect it's the more likely outcome for us. That would give us this year roughly 8, 13, 23, 31, 44, 49, 67 before any extra picks slot in; with no extra picks for 2019 draft. We can't use all of those picks, so would need to either bundle some for an earlier pick or trade some into 2019 IMHO. Perhaps saints would be interested in 8, 13, 31 for pick 3 (yes they lose a top quality pick but get two first rounders plus a second rounder) - that would get GWS close to a Shiel replacement in someone like Smith, Walsh or Rankine. Otherwise, would Freo be interested in trading pick 5 for 8 & 13 - they need to add quality but also need numbers with their list? In the latter case, I'd also find someone to trade 31 to, in exchange for a 2019 second rounder for some extra points next years.
Other thoughts?
Click to expand...
Mate you are way smarter than me in this stuff.

Great read.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
 
Giant Strides said:
So, unwelcome whispers that Dylan Shiel may be on the move. It may not prove to be true (I'd prefer to keep him in 2019 even if FA compo then is worse, and I'll only give up hope when a departure announcement is made) - Raymann has noted that it's not entirely solid - but his previous whispers unfortunately have tended to be on the money.

However, if he does go, my general thoughts on where GWS is at (mixture of my own thoughts & trying to interpret likely GWS actions based on past behaviour):
  • certain departures from the main list over the next 2 years will be Griffen, Mohr, Deledio & Shaw (3 of whom will release significant $)
  • others on the main list with question marks (at this point) for me are: Simpson (due to age + Flynn's progress) Keeffe (although I think we will keep him next year as an emergency ruck) Finlayson and Tiziani (ignoring any other possible FA or trade-related departures)
  • most of the rookies have question marks - Reid, both Buckleys & Stein - while happy to keep Lloyd & Sproule a chance for upgrade to main list either this year or next
  • academy possibilities for the main list over the next two years are Keiran Briggs (ruck/forward) this year and next year Tom Green (inside mid - possible top 10) & Liam Delahunty (KPP - has played both forward & back); James Peatling and Matt Walker would only be rookie list possibles this year
  • current picks likely to start with one mid-teens: on Round 22 table #s 13, 23, 44,49 & 67
  • I hope that we keep list changes to a minimum both this year and next; I'm happy with the list balance & quality and I don't think we need to bring in outside talent (unless Flynn doesn't come up to speed in next 2 years), so really not much more required than natural losses
The 'so what?' for me then is:
  • If Shiel departs this year, then I'd limit departures to him, Griffen & Mohr this year
  • Next year would be Shaw, Deledio and potentially one of Simpson or Keeffe
  • we would want 2 picks this year before Briggs likely to be nominated by another club (I'd suggest late 20s is earliest) then multiple later picks would provide the points for Briggs (3 departures would give us 5 picks to use, on the grounds that we fill 38 out of 40 possible main list spots)
  • we would want extra picks next year to cover for Green being a possible early pick; although I'd consider Sproule as a possible rookie upgrade as the third main list draftee could help our points position
Shiel trade discussion:
  • I value Shiel in the 2 to 5 region, however, I daresay some would argue that both outright and due to this year's supposed 'superdraft' rating.
  • I would prefer 2 first round picks - akin the Treloar trade - (2018 & 2019, the latter to help with Tom Green) with something going back - a 2nd rounder. If Essendon is supposedly favoured to get his signature, then their 2018 (likely) pick 8 (noting all picks are likely to slide right with Lynch compo and GCS & Carlton PPs) + 2019 (likely mid teens as they rise up the table) and giving them 23 this year. That would leave GWS with roughly 8, 13 (becoming likely 9 & 14), 44, 49, 67 (likely to be something like 47, 52 & 70 in the end). Those last three picks would provide the points, once academy discount is factored in, to pick up Briggs from any nomination as early as 24. (anything earlier & we'd just carry the points into next year.)
  • The suggestion from Jon Ralph is, I understand, Essendon's first plus our own second (traded to Essendon last year as part of the Dev Smith trade). That is actually around the same points value, equivalent to around pick 5, and while less valuable to GWS I suspect it's the more likely outcome for us. That would give us this year roughly 8, 13, 23, 31, 44, 49, 67 before any extra picks slot in; with no extra picks for 2019 draft. We can't use all of those picks, so would need to either bundle some for an earlier pick or trade some into 2019 IMHO. Perhaps saints would be interested in 8, 13, 31 for pick 3 (yes they lose a top quality pick but get two first rounders plus a second rounder) - that would get GWS close to a Shiel replacement in someone like Smith, Walsh or Rankine. Otherwise, would Freo be interested in trading pick 5 for 8 & 13 - they need to add quality but also need numbers with their list? In the latter case, I'd also find someone to trade 31 to, in exchange for a 2019 second rounder for some extra points next years.
Other thoughts?
Click to expand...
Great post.
I think we need to trade up to two top 10 picks. The top 10 this year are all potential stars
 
Andre the Giant said:
Was Sunday enough or do you need more data?
Click to expand...
Yeah actually I would like some data. He played 3 quarters not four against the best ruck in the comp.

Last week lycett v gawn= 21 hit outs 11 possessions 7 tackles

Week before sinclaire v gawn= 13 possessions 6 tackles 13 hit outs

When you actually look at the data this week of 1 goal 10 possessions and 13 hit outs makes Lobb comparible to other quality rucks in the comp
 
Danny88 said:
Yeah actually I would like some data. He played 3 quarters not four against the best ruck in the comp.

Last week lycett v gawn= 21 hit outs 11 possessions 7 tackles

Week before sinclaire v gawn= 13 possessions 6 tackles 13 hit outs

When you actually look at the data this week of 1 goal 10 possessions and 13 hit outs makes Lobb comparible to other quality rucks in the comp
Click to expand...
Danny I admire your devotion but Lobb got pantsed
 

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Danny88 said:
Mate I’m not saying he didn’t

I’m saying he is afl standard. That’s my argument the whole time

Gawn as a ruck is like what buddy is to forwards or dance to back men, peerless
Click to expand...
Ok he might be AFL standard but he is not a premiership standard ruckman. We need a premiership ruckman
 
Raymann said:
Ok he might be AFL standard but he is not a premiership standard ruckman. We need a premiership ruckman
Click to expand...
Have you seen the last 5 premiership rucks? I’m not sure I agree

The reason I defend him is we aren’t going to pick up something better and fit them under the cap. What’s out there and available isn’t that crash hot or has no afl experience. Also, I think with three tall forwards we are LESS of a threat than with 2
 
Gawn hasn't won a premiership.

Grundy hasn't won a premiership.

Nankervis is better around the ground than as a ruck. Lobb broke even with him in the prelim last year. Jacobs, a better real ruck, lost in the GF.

Boyd as a ruck is still a little bit funny, but he's ok around the ground.

McEvoy is ok but until recently was more valued for his work around the ground as well. He "beat" NicNat, a better ruck.

Bailey was pretty average, but "beat" Sandilands.

A ruck that offers more around the ground is worth more than a pure tap artist.
 
dlanod said:
Gawn hasn't won a premiership.

Grundy hasn't won a premiership.

Nankervis is better around the ground than as a ruck. Lobb broke even with him in the prelim last year. Jacobs, a better real ruck, lost in the GF.

Boyd as a ruck is still a little bit funny, but he's ok around the ground.

McEvoy is ok but until recently was more valued for his work around the ground as well. He "beat" NicNat, a better ruck.

Bailey was pretty average, but "beat" Sandilands.

A ruck that offers more around the ground is worth more than a pure tap artist.
Click to expand...

They need to be more effective than just at the tap and neither myself nor Raymann are suggesting getting purely a tap ruckman. There was that big bopper that’s Carlton had a few years ago that was great at the tap but couldn’t do anything else and was soon out of the system.

Having said that, if we had a ruckman who was effective at the tap and distributing to our mids but also had other tricks we could go to another level. If it meant sacrificing a player or a pick to get that player we need to do it and we need to do it now as we could slip out of the window.

Simpson showed us the difference when he strung a few games together but can we trust his body that has never stood up to consistent play?

Lobb is a fantastic contested mark and has good running ability. He is an odd player in that he is not a pure ruckman as he isn’t great at the tap and he is not an elite forward and too tall to play anywhere else.

I love his contested marking ability but he is not our answer at ruck and neither is Simpson and if you blokes think either is you are kidding yourselves.
 
Andre the Giant said:
Having said that, if we had a ruckman who was effective at the tap and distributing to our mids but also had other tricks we could go to another level.
Click to expand...
I agree that if we had a top 5 ruckman it'd be good. That doesn't seem controversial.

But unless we're getting in Gawn, Grundy, NN, Kreuzer or maybe Martin (probably the only gettable one) anyone else is roughly equivalent to Lobb at best IMO.
 
dlanod said:
I agree that if we had a top 5 ruckman it'd be good. That doesn't seem controversial.

But unless we're getting in Gawn, Grundy, NN, Kreuzer or maybe Martin (probably the only gettable one) anyone else is roughly equivalent to Lobb at best IMO.
Click to expand...
Not Kreuzer, we have enough recurring injuries in the current squad :)
 

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dlanod said:
I agree that if we had a top 5 ruckman it'd be good. That doesn't seem controversial.

But unless we're getting in Gawn, Grundy, NN, Kreuzer or maybe Martin (probably the only gettable one) anyone else is roughly equivalent to Lobb at best IMO.
Click to expand...

Preuss is a much better player than what we have and can stay on park. He is just itching for an opportunity and has a massive chip on his shoulder and point to prove. We should go hard on him.
 
Andre the Giant said:
Preuss is a much better player than what we have and can stay on park. He is just itching for an opportunity and has a massive chip on his shoulder and point to prove. We should go hard on him.
Click to expand...

I saw most of Preuss's games last year and they were impressive but I've seen enough flashes in the pan over the years now to be very cautious over hanging on a lot of hopes on someone who's only played eight games.
 
Giant Strides said:
So, unwelcome whispers that Dylan Shiel may be on the move. It may not prove to be true (I'd prefer to keep him in 2019 even if FA compo then is worse, and I'll only give up hope when a departure announcement is made) - Raymann has noted that it's not entirely solid - but his previous whispers unfortunately have tended to be on the money.

However, if he does go, my general thoughts on where GWS is at (mixture of my own thoughts & trying to interpret likely GWS actions based on past behaviour):
  • certain departures from the main list over the next 2 years will be Griffen, Mohr, Deledio & Shaw (3 of whom will release significant $)
  • others on the main list with question marks (at this point) for me are: Simpson (due to age + Flynn's progress) Keeffe (although I think we will keep him next year as an emergency ruck) Finlayson and Tiziani (ignoring any other possible FA or player-initiated trade-related departures)
  • most of the rookies have question marks - Reid, both Buckleys & Stein - while happy to keep Lloyd & Sproule a chance for upgrade to main list either this year or next
  • academy possibilities for the main list over the next two years are Keiran Briggs (ruck/forward) this year and next year Tom Green (inside mid - possible top 10) & Liam Delahunty (KPP - has played both forward & back); James Peatling and Matt Walker would only be rookie list possibles this year
  • current picks likely to start with one mid-teens: on Round 22 table #s 13, 23, 44,49 & 67
  • I hope that we keep list changes to a minimum both this year and next; I'm happy with the list balance & quality and I don't think we need to bring in outside talent (unless Flynn doesn't come up to speed in next 2 years), so really not much more required than natural losses
The 'so what?' for me then is:
  • If Shiel departs this year, then I'd limit departures to him, Griffen & Mohr this year
  • Next year would be Shaw, Deledio and potentially one of Simpson or Keeffe
  • we would want 2 picks this year before Briggs likely to be nominated by another club (I'd suggest late 20s is earliest) then multiple later picks would provide the points for Briggs (3 departures would give us 5 picks to use, on the grounds that we fill 38 out of 40 possible main list spots)
  • we would want extra picks next year to cover for Green being a possible early pick; although I'd consider Sproule as a possible rookie upgrade as the third main list draftee could help our points position
Shiel trade discussion:
  • I value Shiel in the 2 to 5 region, however, I daresay some would argue that both outright and due to this year's supposed 'superdraft' rating.
  • I would prefer 2 first round picks - akin the Treloar trade - (2018 & 2019, the latter to help with Tom Green) with something going back - a 2nd rounder. If Essendon is supposedly favoured to get his signature, then their 2018 (likely) pick 8 (noting all picks are likely to slide right with Lynch compo and GCS & Carlton PPs) + 2019 (likely mid teens as they rise up the table) and giving them 23 this year. That would leave GWS with roughly 8, 13 (becoming likely 9 & 14), 44, 49, 67 (likely to be something like 47, 52 & 70 in the end). Those last three picks would provide the points, once academy discount is factored in, to pick up Briggs from any nomination as early as 24. (anything earlier & we'd just carry the points into next year.)
  • The suggestion from Jon Ralph is, I understand, Essendon's first plus our own second (traded to Essendon last year as part of the Dev Smith trade). That is actually around the same points value, equivalent to around pick 5, and while less valuable to GWS I suspect it's the more likely outcome for us. That would give us this year roughly 8, 13, 23, 31, 44, 49, 67 before any extra picks slot in; with no extra picks for 2019 draft. We can't use all of those picks, so would need to either bundle some for an earlier pick or trade some into 2019 IMHO. Perhaps saints would be interested in 8, 13, 31 for pick 3 (yes they lose a top quality pick but get two first rounders plus a second rounder) - that would get GWS close to a Shiel replacement in someone like Smith, Walsh or Rankine. Otherwise, would Freo be interested in trading pick 5 for 8 & 13 - they need to add quality but also need numbers with their list? In the latter case, I'd also find someone to trade 31 to, in exchange for a 2019 second rounder for some extra points next years.
Other thoughts?
Click to expand...

I can't see Keefe being kept as he is not really a ruck even at NEAFL level and with Lobb, Simpson(?), Flynn and Briggs on the list 3 could play at AFL level next year and depending on the opposition even Sproule could ruck at reserves level
TOJ signed a contract extension earlier this year so I can't see him being anywhere near a trade this year, he has his faults which would turn off any suitors IMO
Reid needs to be upgraded this year as this is his third year on the rookie list but I think he will retire or player/coach in NEAFL or a slim chance he is kept if Griffen retires and depending on other list changes
D Buckley or Tiziani for a spot on the rookie list IMO and I would favour Tiziani for being an academy product and he might have more upside
J Buckley or Stein for the same although with Sproule it would only leave one spot for a category B rookie and I think J Buckleys body isn't up to the contact in the game with his injuries this year

Not sure on the status of Buntine as he has been solid this year with 7 games this year if the caches think he will be needed in defence next year or if they have better options

DONT TRADE SHIEL
I am happy to lose him for pick 19 if the club wins a flag
If it does happen I would like a top 5 pick this year and try and pick up one of Smith or Walsh
 
Kieren Collins just delisted by the dogs, might be worth a rookie spot if Sam Collins already taken. Could slot in and take Mohr's spot in the reserves if we are looking to move him on as he approaches 30 and starting to get hampered by injuries. Only 20 years old, big body, good mark and some fast legs. Has a bit of mongrel like Sam Frost from the Dees (originally with us) about him which I like and would be a solid young developing KPD alongside Taylor.
 
Teeso said:
Kieren Collins just delisted by the dogs, might be worth a rookie spot if Sam Collins already taken. Could slot in and take Mohr's spot in the reserves if we are looking to move him on as he approaches 30 and starting to get hampered by injuries. Only 20 years old, big body, good mark and some fast legs. Has a bit of mongrel like Sam Frost from the Dees (originally with us) about him which I like and would be a solid young developing KPD alongside Taylor.
Click to expand...
Toumpas from port might have better pedigree
 
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